June 2018 ATL-FCO Fares are soooo high

Our June 8, 2018 Italy & Greek Isl (Eastern Med) cruise on the Reflection is booked and we are now focusing on airfare from ATL-FCO. I'm getting concerned because the fares or mileage points needed are very high.

We are traveling June 3th outbound, and June 18th on the return. When I looked a month ago using May 2018 placeholder travel dates in ITA Matrix, Kayak, and Delta.com the rates were near $1K per main cabin ticket ($1,100), or 60K miles. This was for 1-stop fares (DTW and others), but the Non-stop was decent too (same $1,100 cash). Now that we are within 330 days for the outbound trip, the one-ways alone are well over $1K ($1,474 today, and higher) and 105K miles. Yikes!

What do I do once the return date is also within the 330 day carrier schedule window and the rates are still so high for a roundtrip fare? Do you usually use miles ASAP no matter what due to limited mileage seats, or else wait for a fare dip (hopefully) and purchase using cash? The Celebrity ChoiceAir rates are better, $851 RT; but I expect them to be heavily restricted.

Any thoughts/experiences? Thank you!

We often get good fares from JFK to FCO, LHR or CPH around 8-10 months far out. We focus first on fares to monitor, and not primarily to use mileage points. Fine if we use the points and save the cash, but sometimes, we use it for merchandise.

A couple of thoughts:

-As you have found out, there can be a big difference from one month to the next, and so alas checking May prices is of limited value for determining what prices will be like in June, which is the start of high season;

-You cannot look at one-way pricing for revenue tickets to determine what round-trip pricing will be like.

I personally would't be panicking yet, as the flights for your timeframe are just out. I was able to price out return airfare for your dates by forcing a search on ITA Matrix (using the calendar of lowest fares search); best rate is a one-stop on Turkish Airlines via IST for $955, but it does considerably lengthen your total travel time. Otherwise, there's a Skyteam combo for around $1390, with an overnight in Paris on the return. Of course, the more flexible you can be in terms of times, connections and dates, the more likely you can get that number down.

Does your cruise line offer air? Have you priced o/w's?

bon voyage

 

What do I do once the return date is also within the 330 day carrier schedule window and the rates are still so high for a roundtrip fare? Do you usually use miles ASAP no matter what due to limited mileage seats, or else wait for a fare dip (hopefully) and purchase using cash?

You have to decide how much you're willing to pay and go from there. You can hold out for a lower fare, but keep in mind that prices might go up. You have plenty of time though, so personally I'd wait a while. That may or may not be within your comfort zone though.

Does your cruise line offer air?

OP stated at the onset that they have priced airfare through the cruise line but have some hesitations about booking that way.

I feel your pain. Delta's relative lack of competition in ATL has always meant higher fares than from many other airports, and June always seems to see a jump relative to May. It's summer. I fly to FCO fairly often, and the price you quote sounds about the same as when I checked for June 2016 and had to look at other alternatives.

I used Turkish Airlines last year to fly to FCO from ATL, as suggested above. The long added time due to the IST change is not worth it, IMO. Not to mention the check-ins were chaotic and 3 of the 4 flights (RT) departed quite late and arrived quite late. To top it off, there was a bomb threat on our flight departing IST to ATL and the extra security added about another 90 minutes.

Sounds like a fun trip, cruisemom42. One of the reasons I won't fly Turkish.

OP - I think you are too early to book. I'd keep checking and wait. Consider different routings, such as departing from and returning to another US airport.

You can search here and try different dates and cities:

http://matrix.itasoftware.com/

Thank you for your reply posts to date.

For the reasons Cruisemom42 states, I think it wise to fly direct from the USA to FCO - however I have no trouble flying first from ATL to another U.S. city with better FCO fares (like possibly JFK or DTW). Even a stop in LHR concerns me more than doing any USA city connection, and I think we'll want to keep the trip to one stop at the most in each direction. Once my entire outbound/return trip is within the 330 day schedule window, I'll look into both RT and one way options in this manner.

I think the suggestion from easyboy to wait until 8-10 months out to book is valid for cash purchase fares, while using mileage points is something that has to be booked earlier while seats are available at the lowest mileage rates. I have 105K Delta points that I was hoping could cover two miles+cash fares, but now for June looks like it will only cover one fare.

It is unfortunate that the May rates are so much lower than June - but that's the breaks. I should have known that June was the beginning of the peak season, and fares would accordingly increase. Makes sense now.

Bo1953, I will definitely look into booking through the cruise line using Celebrity ChoiceAir. I expect though that any booking will be on a heavily restricted ticket, without any reciprocal rights with other airlines should there be travel issues, resulting in potential significant delays. That said however, it may be worth the risk if the ChoiceAir Business Class fare was near the same as main cabin rates when purchased direct from the air carriers. Will look into that too. Maybe do Business Class on the outbound (so can rest during the night flight), and main cabin on return to save a few dollars. Will have to play with the options a bit once the fares come more into focus when all travel dates are within 330 days. I will call ChoiceAir on the phone, as I understand from pouring through posts here and on FlyerTalk the past many months, that a Rep on the phone often has fares/options that are not visible on the ChoiceAir website.

Net: June travel looks to be a bit more expensive than I had hoped, and for how we choose to travel. If nothing else changes, it is likely that I'll: 1. Use the miles for one Delta fare (non-stop or 1-stop in USA), and buy the second via cash; or 2. Use ChoiceAir if Business Class is within a few hundred dollars of the main cabin fare on the outbound.

If I do option 1, may not wait until Aug-Oct 2017 (8-10 months out) to buy that second fare - may be better to just lock it in the same time the mileage fare is booked to ensure we travel together and close everything out. ...Though that said, I do understand that Delta has had great Black Friday fares in the past, hmmmm. Talk about rolling the dice!

If do option 2, then have to decide if use ChoiceAir on the return too, or book direct with the air carrier (if do Main Cabin).

Will begin crunching through it all here later this month once all travel is inside 330 days. Fun times ahead. Booking the cruise was simple compared to this!

Thank you again for sharing your experiences and suggestions. You have provided more perspective, and it is appreciated. I also plan to let you know what we decide to do, as maybe this will help someone else that sees this post down the road.

Ciao!

A number of thoughts:

For the reasons Cruisemom42 states, I think it wise to fly direct from the USA to FCO - however I have no trouble flying first from ATL to another U.S. city with better FCO fares (like possibly JFK or DTW). Even a stop in LHR concerns me more than doing any USA city connection, and I think we'll want to keep the trip to one stop at the most in each direction. Once my entire outbound/return trip is within the 330 day schedule window, I'll look into both RT and one way options in this manner.

There is a belief that a connection in the USA is necessarily better than one in Europe. Let me present a contrary opinion and hypothetical. Let's say that the flight from the USA to FCO is once per day. If that flight runs into a problem, or if your connection to that flight is delayed, you are SOL for that day. OTOH, if you have a connection in Europe, there are likely more flights that day into FCO than you would get out of the USA. In general, it's highly advisable to have multiple options at the end of a string of flights, as any problems can multiply and magnify the further along you go.

I have 105K Delta points that I was hoping could cover two miles+cash fares, but now for June looks like it will only cover one fare.

Though that said, I do understand that Delta has had great Black Friday fares in the past, hmmmm. Talk about rolling the dice!

With both mileage and revenue tickets, Delta, like other airlines uses "dynamic" pricing. This means the price (in dollars or Skypesos) can and will change - go up or down - depending on how a given flight is doing in terms of sales, how the competition is shaping up, price of fuel, and hosts of other factors that are constantly monitored and used in their computer algorithms.

As a general rule (and thus subject to being wrong now and then) it's not especially smart to buy tickets when they're first made available. At eleven months out, the airlines are risking their internal costs going up in the meantime (fuel costs go up, labor troubles, you name it) so they hedge by setting initial fares high enough to cover any loss of profit they might suffer. And for mileage seats, they use the same data points to decide if releasing seats for fewer miles poses the risk that a cash customer might come along in the meantime, willing to spend higher dollars for the same seat.

My recommendation is to wait, and monitor the award seat availability. It's entirely possible that the cash fares might go down, or that award seats might appear for fewer miles. Remember some early birds get cats instead of worms.

Also, there aren't that many nonstop seats between the US and Rome, compared to the many thousands daily to London or other major hubs like Amsterdam, Paris or Frankfurt. And flying from ATL on Delta really puts you at Delta's mercy; often flights on Delta from places like Charlotte or Raleigh-Durham to Europe via Atlanta are cheaper than those originating in ATL itself. It's all about supply and demand, not to mention competition.

This might not be of interest, but summer is often the cheapest time to fly over the Atlantic in business class, since actual business travel falls off at that time of year. There are usually sales in business class that appear in the late spring for these fares. And depending on how many miles you have, it might be worthwhile to monitor business class availability along with economy; you might be surprised that the relative "cost" isn't as great as you'd imagine.

Finally, look at flights out of Canada to Italy. It's not a sure thing, but often Canadian-originating transatlantic fares are considerably cheaper than comparable flights from the US, particularly in business class. Worth investigating, anyway.

There is a belief that a connection in the USA is necessarily better than one in Europe. Let me present a contrary opinion and hypothetical. Let's say that the flight from the USA to FCO is once per day. If that flight runs into a problem, or if your connection to that flight is delayed, you are SOL for that day. OTOH, if you have a connection in Europe, there are likely more flights that day into FCO than you would get out of the USA. In general, it's highly advisable to have multiple options at the end of a string of flights, as any problems can multiply and magnify the further along you go.

 

I agree on this point. If not flying nonstop, I'd ALWAYS rather my first flight take me across the pond.

My experience in IST was an aberration, mainly because 1) it was way off the path to FCO and 2) Turkish Airlines was at that time just launching their flights from ATL. Not to mention the greater chance of instability in Turkey just at this moment.

But I'd have no issue flying to CDG (and often have) en route to FCO, for example -- in fact it can be pleasant if you give yourself sufficient time. Many other second choices: LHR, FRA, etc.

That parlay requires that they 1) have a black friday sale and 2) it specifically includes your city pair and 3) it specifically includes your dates of travel. How lucky do you feel??

Are there ever sales for summer travel US-Europe in economy? Most I see end in early spring.

Also, OP, you say, "I think the suggestion from easyboy to wait until 8-10 months out to book is valid for cash purchase fares, while using mileage points is something that has to be booked earlier while seats are available at the lowest mileage rates." That's just not true. You never know when lower mileage award seats will be released. It could be at 330 days, it could be at 50 days out, or it could be never.

And to just add one more thought to all of this, IF you decide you are going to use points, you may have to be flexible on the European end. A few years back, I wanted to fly from Raleigh to Venice but award tickets were crazy priced. We ended up driving to Dulles and flying to Paris nonstop then because I was unwilling to "pay" so much for a ticket nonstop from there to Venice, we flew into Bologna and then took the train. While it wasn't perfect, it was an adventure and we were able to fly business for about the same as what an economy ticket from Raleigh to Venice would have used pointwise.

Are there ever sales for summer travel US-Europe in economy?

Rarely. Amusingly business and first class are often heavily discounted in the summer months as business/first class demand is softer so the traditional delta between the cheap seats and second class ones are often pretty small. The same can be said for any time of high leisure travel demand (Thanksgiving, Xmas, New Year etc.)

Are there ever sales for summer travel US-Europe in economy? Most I see end in early spring.

 

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Not sure about the US but Lufthansa was advertising $750 return from Vancouver for May and June and some July dates for $800 Canadian.

I would try your cruise line for a rate.

Not sure about the US but Lufthansa was advertising $750 return from Vancouver for May and June and some July dates for $800 Canadian.

Last November DL and AA had a two or three day flash sale from numerous cities to many destinations in Europe for under $500 for summer flights. But, if you weren't looking you'd miss it...gone in a flash.

Does your cruise allow you to pay a small air deviation fee and then basically pick your flights? We just booked a late March cruise that starts in Rome. We are going in on Sunday and the cruise departs on Friday and thus we needed the air deviation anyway. We are on Lufthansa on the way over (via Frankfurt) and Delta on the way home (via JFK) from DC. Our travel agent was fabulous at looking up everything available.

Have fun!

Melissa

I have been looking at flights from Tampa to FCO Rome, for Oct 2017. I started looking about 13 months ago. The initial price I got from Choice Air was the best price and I have been looking regularly at least once a month and also from ATL to TYO for 2019.

The prices vary widely from carrier to carrier and discount (which really isn't) like kayak, priceline etc. sometimes it's the luck of the draw. Also the time of the year. June - Oct are the most expensive months where June, July, August and September are peak.

I have been looking at flights from Tampa to FCO Rome, for Oct 2017. I started looking about 13 months ago.

Oct 2017 flights weren't released by the airlines until 8 months ago, so whatever you were looking at earlier than that wouldn't have been valid.

Update: I have been watching the airfares daily since this post, sometimes multiple times a day. I have decided that 60K miles per ticket RT is my target, as I now have 125K miles in my account so 60K will cover two tickets in full. A couple weeks ago I was about to book a non-stop ATL-FCO outbound with a 1-Stop return, but took too long to decide that the 4.5 hour 1-stop layover was OK and the fare went up before I could lock it in. Fares have been 80-125K miles since.

Yesterday there was another great mileage fare offer, so I called Delta and was able to put it on 24-hour hold until 11pm tonight. It is a 60K mile non-stop ATL-FCO outbound AND non-stop return RT fare on flights #64/#65 (!)...but it is the day before and day after the dates we really want to travel. I know folks have advised that it is still early and I'll probably get this fare on the actual dates I prefer (Sunday June 3 out, Monday June 18 return), but I think that a 60K mile award ticket for non-stop RT is a great rate - and adding two more days at the beginning and end of our trip will cost more in hotel/meals, but allow us to spend more time in Rome, both of which we can afford to do.

So, as much as I would rather have this fare on our preferred travel dates, I think we can live with more vacation time...UNLESS there is some historic data out there that there is a GOOD chance our preferred travel dates will likely yield a similar rate later and we would be foolish to book now.

One thing for sure, once I book I'm not looking back - it will drive me further up the wall.

Thank you to everyone that has replied over the course of this post. Your feedback has been very helpful.

When booking FF award tickets, especially in high-demand situations (like "cruise day"), the simple rule is:

GRAB IT.

Being within a day or two of your target is a success. And to your specific question, there's no data that suggests you will get inventory opening up on your specific date at some "closer" time.

Stop reading this post - book the ticket.

Booked and DONE! Upgraded to Delta Comfort+ too while we were at it.

For our extra arrival and departure days, we are thinking about taking the train from FCO to Tivoli on arrival and spending the night there before coming back to Rome for several nights prior to the cruise departure. On our extra day before returning home we will stay the night near FCO airport and either walk and dine in Fiumicino or take the train into Rome.

Thanks again everyone!

On our extra day before returning home we will stay the night near FCO airport and either walk and dine in Fiumicino or take the train into Rome.

The Hilton hotel at the airport is quite nice and convenient. It is walkable from all the terminals except T5 and the hotel will van shuttle you to your terminal as well. In addition, the hotel has a free bus between the hotel and "downtown" Rome - it is first come, first served, but can get you back and forth with little hassle. Contact the hotel directly for more info on schedules.

Iceland Air is great. Booked a flight from AMS-KEC-SFO with a stop in Seattle and 4 nights in Rejkiavik for $550 with free seat asignment checked bag. Just need to purchase meals or bring your own and bring your own headphones for free Inflight Entertainment. Found AirBnb for S100 per night in Rejkiavik . This is for April 2018 much better than WOW Air. We fly on Alaska from Seattle to SFO.