DogLover Posted July 15, 2017 #1 Share Posted July 15, 2017 Yes, I KNOW no one has a crystal ball. That being said, my question is ... Do Business class airfares trend down a bit after the 331 day release, or is it best to just bite it and book sooner than later? Unfortunately we've burned points on other travel so we'll have to pony up for the fare. For specifics, we're on the May 28th sailing of Celebrity Eclipse out of Dublin. We are looking to travel a week prior to the cruise to tour Ireland. Home airport is Phoenix Sky Harbor. Any "recent" European air was booked through Regent Seven Seas in conjunction with the cruise, so I have little basis for comparison. Last international travel we secured ourselves was to Australia (booked May 2016 for Jan 2017 travel), so hardly a relevant comparison. Any and all advice appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Keith1010 Posted July 15, 2017 #2 Share Posted July 15, 2017 My experience is that they can remain the same, go up, or go down. Even daily you can find fluctuations. We usually just try to get a sense of what the fares look like and compare between various routes and airlines and then at some point just bite the bullet. Keith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waterbug123 Posted July 15, 2017 #3 Share Posted July 15, 2017 There's really no way to judge. Sometimes they go up, sometimes they go down. Generally they will fluctuate in both directions, but not on a schedule that anyone can predict with any degree of accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Gardyloo Posted July 15, 2017 #4 Share Posted July 15, 2017 Like all airfares, business class fares are subject to the same dynamic pricing algorithms as those in economy. Generalizing is dangerous (so therefore I'll just do it) but often the first fares published after the booking windows open are NOT the cheapest. The airlines will set them high so that they can protect themselves in the event of some internal costs (e.g. fuel) go up in the meantime. The farther out, the higher the risk of these unforeseen changes impacting their bottom line. So personally I'd monitor fares but probably wouldn't pull the trigger much before this fall or winter; it's unlikely any increases will be significant, and prices might go down. Late May is also about the time that you see summer sales for business class start to appear. It might seem counter-intuitive, but transatlantic business class is often the cheapest in the summer, owing to the fall-off of actual business travel then. It's not uncommon to see prices in the $2000 - $2500 range for west coast to Europe business round trips then, compared to $3000+ fares the rest of the year. I'd also keep my eyes peeled for frequent flyer mileage sales through the major airlines. Most years you'll see sales from the likes of American Airlines where you can get miles for under 2c per mile. With redemption for business class seats running around 55,000-60,000 miles one way (i.e. 115-120K round trip) you can get a business RT ticket for under $2500 that way. Also monitor this board on Flyertalk - http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/premium-fare-deals-740/ - where good buys in premium cabins are posted all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceba Posted July 15, 2017 #5 Share Posted July 15, 2017 Like all airfares, business class fares are subject to the same dynamic pricing algorithms as those in economy. Generalizing is dangerous (so therefore I'll just do it) but often the first fares published after the booking windows open are NOT the cheapest. The airlines will set them high so that they can protect themselves in the event of some internal costs (e.g. fuel) go up in the meantime. The farther out, the higher the risk of these unforeseen changes impacting their bottom line. So personally I'd monitor fares but probably wouldn't pull the trigger much before this fall or winter; it's unlikely any increases will be significant, and prices might go down. Late May is also about the time that you see summer sales for business class start to appear. It might seem counter-intuitive, but transatlantic business class is often the cheapest in the summer, owing to the fall-off of actual business travel then. It's not uncommon to see prices in the $2000 - $2500 range for west coast to Europe business round trips then, compared to $3000+ fares the rest of the year. I'd also keep my eyes peeled for frequent flyer mileage sales through the major airlines. Most years you'll see sales from the likes of American Airlines where you can get miles for under 2c per mile. With redemption for business class seats running around 55,000-60,000 miles one way (i.e. 115-120K round trip) you can get a business RT ticket for under $2500 that way. Also monitor this board on Flyertalk - http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/premium-fare-deals-740/ - where good buys in premium cabins are posted all the time. Thank you for the link! I stumbled on some great biz class tics a few months back but stumbling on them was exactly how I found them! This link looks like a good place to start looking in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogLover Posted July 16, 2017 Author #6 Share Posted July 16, 2017 Thanks for all the replies. I also monitor Flyertalk for deals and info. Right now I'm seeing fares for our time frame in the $3500 to $4000 range, regardless of airline. Top choices are BA (PHX-LHR-DUB) or Aer Lingus (PHX-SFO-DUB). Would really like to avoid going on Delta thru ATL. Also good point on monitoring mileage sales ... appreciate the suggestion. Sharon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waterbug123 Posted July 17, 2017 #7 Share Posted July 17, 2017 Any particular reason you are opposed to a connection at ATL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare FlyerTalker Posted July 17, 2017 #8 Share Posted July 17, 2017 Any particular reason you are opposed to a connection at ATL? Putting on my Kreskin hat (or maybe my Carnak the Magnificent turban).....because it's SOOOO big. Which is the reason why it is an excellent place for your connection -- there are many possible rerouting solutions from there as opposed to lesser hubs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marco Posted July 17, 2017 #9 Share Posted July 17, 2017 Have you looked into booking air through the cruise line? We've always gotten much better rates for air on European cruises or TA's through the line, regardless of which class you're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogLover Posted July 17, 2017 Author #10 Share Posted July 17, 2017 waterbug123: I'll clarify ... I'm not necessary opposed to an ATL connection, but the terminal areas I went through in April were under massive renovations and left me with a "meh" feeling about the airport. I suppose that's not really a good reason and if fares are competitive with decent flight times, I just might have to reconsider. Flyertalker: Thanks for donning your Kreskin hat to decipher my rationale for avoiding ATL :) I appreciate your suggestion to use a connection city which affords many rerouting options, it's a smart way to go ... precisely why I was looking at connections thru SFO and LHR. Your insights are always spot on. marco: I have not yet contacted Celebrity air to check fares. There is another thread right now on the Cruise Air forum which addresses the considerable savings using their air, but also points out the severe restrictions which generally come with such fares. As previously mentioned, I used Regent Seven Seas Air because for those bookings, the promotion included business class air for Europe sailings and was a very good deal at the time. Otherwise, we book our own air, hotel and land arrangements. Perhaps I'll give a call just as a basis for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waterbug123 Posted July 18, 2017 #11 Share Posted July 18, 2017 waterbug123: I'll clarify ... I'm not necessary opposed to an ATL connection, but the terminal areas I went through in April were under massive renovations and left me with a "meh" feeling about the airport. I suppose that's not really a good reason and if fares are competitive with decent flight times, I just might have to reconsider. /quote] There are 7 concourses at ATL and I assure you that construction is not going on in all of them. The airport is huge, but it also has excellent signage and a very efficient underground plane train that connects all concourses, airside. It generally makes connecting a breeze, so I would encourage you not to discount ATL due to a little construction in one area or another. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogLover Posted July 18, 2017 Author #12 Share Posted July 18, 2017 There are 7 concourses at ATL and I assure you that construction is not going on in all of them. The airport is huge, but it also has excellent signage and a very efficient underground plane train that connects all concourses, airside. It generally makes connecting a breeze, so I would encourage you not to discount ATL due to a little construction in one area or another. :) Thanks, waterbug. I actually made use of that wonderful train system. My layover from SAV this April was several hours, so I hopped on the plane train to One Flew South in Terminal E for a delicious lunch and glass of wine. Hmmm, that would be a great way to whittle away an international connection at ATL ;) I will definitely reconsider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waterbug123 Posted July 18, 2017 #13 Share Posted July 18, 2017 Yep, gotta love One Flew South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Gail & Marty sailing away Posted July 18, 2017 #14 Share Posted July 18, 2017 My experience is that they can remain the same, go up, or go down. Even daily you can find fluctuations. We usually just try to get a sense of what the fares look like and compare between various routes and airlines and then at some point just bite the bullet. Keith I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProfessorEFFE Posted July 20, 2017 #15 Share Posted July 20, 2017 (edited) DogLover, Check out the following link: this is regarding Choice Air. IF you want to leave for Dublin on the 16th of May you can get Business class one way from PHX to DUB for just over 1 grand. When I did a round trip it jumped to almost 4 grand. 2 one way trips are in the 2700 dollar range. Happy hunting! http://www.espresso.cruisingpower.com/choiceair Edited July 20, 2017 by ProfessorEFFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogLover Posted July 24, 2017 Author #16 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Thanks, Professor. I'll take a look next week as we are currently on the Equinox enjoying the warm sunny days of the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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