Airfare wars

Excellent article today , in our hometown paper, which I think might be a reprint from a Bloomberg piece on the airfare wars. I can say I was amazed at some of the stupid cheap fares that are out there IF flying out of and to the right cities. An example one way JFK-LAX for $49, or ORD-Orlando for $25.

An extremely informative piece of information was that 87% of flyers only take one flight per year. The majority of those flyers don't care about services, number of free checked bags, which seats they get, or in what order they Board the plane. They predominantly only care about how cheap they can get from home to Disney World, a cruise, the beach, or to grandmas! They have zero, nor reason to have more, loyalty to any airline. Bottom line price or perceived price.

It is these passengers that the majors are competing with the Low Cost Carriers for. The crazy price wars have driven down earnings, and thus share prices, of all of the majors. The wars have become more personal than business. Major investors are now calling on United's Board to reel in Kirby who seems to be the major instigator of the price wars.

The Basic Economy tickets, we have discussed on other threads are all legacies of that ongoing war. The airlines, per the article, would be far more profitable, if they stop the wars.

Reading the article, one of the first things that came to mind. Just how much are the Cruise Lines paying for those heavily discounted bulk rate fares, and then reselling to its passengers? On another note, if the airlines have to pay 400% on a bumped $50 ticket, they may not care!

The larger question is, how long will the shareholders allow the price wars to continue and air travel remain so inexpensive?

On another note, if the airlines have to pay 400% on a bumped $50 ticket, they may not care!

Well, in many cases they aren't going to care because not everyone is paying the dirt cheap fares. Book late on or last minute and the airline is happy to bump someone on a $49 fare for $600 in bump money if they can recoup that on an $800 last minute fare or similar.

A lot of people who don't travel on prime business routes or on prime business hours are shocked when I tell them some of the fares for my tickets, even over relatively short distances. I booked today for a business trip next week, as the crow flies it is less than 300 miles from my origin to destination. My time is too valuable to waste driving (most of the journey is along theNE Corridor) and the trains are particularly unreliable so I'm flying at just under $900 (albeit this is in FC, but the Y fares are only a couple of hundred less), and that's more than a week out.

The legacy airlines make they money on the business travelers that flying multiple times every month. They are usually paying top dollar for the flight and care about lounges, boarding first, upgrades and the like.

The problem is they can't fill the aircraft with the business travelers. So it comes down to what to do with the rest of the space on the aircraft and how to make the most money from it. Making $100 on a seat that would otherwise be empty is better than it going out empty.

In principle there should never be any one bumped if everything works correctly. The computer model is trying to estimate the number of people who will be no-shows and the number of people who will miss a connection. The goal is to go out full but not have to bump anyone.

The other game they are going to play is those last remaining tickets are sold at full price. If you are making $1,000 for a last minute ticket sale to a frequent flyers , the airline is more than happy to hand out a $600 voucher to a passenger that purchased a discounted ticket to free up a seat to be used by someone paying full price.

Well, in many cases they aren't going to care because not everyone is paying the dirt cheap fares.

^^^This.

Leisure travelers who fly once or twice a year, if that, tend to think everyone is in the same boat as them. That's understandable; it's human nature. What they don't understand is the huge number of business travelers who frequently only book tickets weeks or even days ahead, and pay a high premium for doing so. That's who the airlines are most concerned about.

We have been seeing some unbelievably good international air fares of late.

This winter will be our fourth one in SE Asia. Of the four fares we have booked, the very best was booked this year five months out. The second best, by only a few dollars more than the best, was booked 10 days prior to departure. Both were mid January departures. We have experienced he same on European flights. We think that it has more to do with demand and supply than it does about when you book. The middle two flights we both about 30 percent higher than the two lowest cost flights. They all involved domestic airline segments/stopovers.

iancal;

We have no way of responding to your claims. Some people are just as happier doing a four stops, 39 hour routing saving $100; than spending the extra money on a two stop 14.5 hour routing. I will pay extra for one stoppers over multiple stop itineraries. Others won't.

Airfare sales occur at different unpredictable times. Any anecdotal past sales will not predict future ones.

Exactly my point. Anecdotal means nothing. Just because people advise to book well in advance does not mean it applies to the next booking, or the one after. When we fly we take the shortest possible. For us that means about 19-23 hours to Bangkok and 18 return. Europe is much shorter for us.

We fly to Europe in the late summer/early fall just about every year and to SE Asia/Australia or Central America every Jan since retiring.

Our experience on returns, one ways, open jaws is the same. Supply and demand. You never know. We have had great flights by booking within a month of departure, often closer, just as we have had booking three months in advance.

One thing for certain. If there is some travel advisory that scares people and keeps them at home....that is the time to book travel, especially air and hotel.

iancal;

The other great variable where we might part is seat selection. If going 10+ hours on any single flight, we now go BC, or true PE at a minimum for European return flights.

For economy seating, I'm 6'2 and it takes a shoehorn to get me into an Economy seat. For my 5'9" wife, it's only a little better. However, I have multiple friends that are 5'4" or 5'6", whose feet barely touch the floor when they are seated. Their knees never see the seats in front of them, even when reclining. It is a rarity when I can find an acceptable seat in Economy, for us, at less than 120 days out. Most all of those MCE or Economy Plus seats are long gone by then. I was on an Air Canada flight this summer where all the PE seats sold out about 200 days out! So if your short, you might be able to wait for that late sale because seat selection isn't important. Different priorities for different people.

Agree. We try to keep flights under 10 hours and can do usually do this or come close on SE Asia. Not this time though...we have a non stop from SFO to Singapore. Something like 17 hours. Unfortunately it is on United. Paying for an extra inch or two is not in the card so we may go to business.

We had a similar challenge coming back from Australia. We were able to get a low cost flight to Hawaii on Jetstar, overnight w/two days, and then a flight home.

IF you travel on points and your program covers Lufthansa you can sometimes be in luck on reward tickets. Lufthansa actually open up additional reward seats 30 days out. We learned this from a Star Alliance employee and were able to take advantage of it to snag some business class seats. Don't know, but I wonder if other airlines do the same.

I have multiple friends that are 5'4" or 5'6", whose feet barely touch the floor when they are seated.

 

 

It is a rarity when I can find an acceptable seat in Economy, for us, at less than 120 days out. Most all of those MCE or Economy Plus seats are long gone by then.

Their feet barely touch the floor? I get what you're saying about the pitch (legroom, if you will) of economy seats, but pitch has nothing to do with the height of the seat. You'll be taken more seriously if you avoid the hyperbole. I'm shorter than the friends you mentioned (only 5'3") and my feet have ALWAYS reached the floor just fine.

As for finding acceptable legroom in an economy seat, I find exit rows, particular the 2nd or 3rd back when there are 2 or 3 exit rows in a row, often have more legroom than economy comfort/comfort+. Sometimes, the exit row window seat doesn't even have a seat in front of it at all. If legroom is such an issue for you, you'd likely be better off doing whatever is necessary to book an exit row, be it paying a surcharge, or sticking with one airline often enough to get the loyalty status that allows you to choose those seats when others can't. Even booking within 30-90 days for a holiday travel period, I've never had an issue finding exit row seating available. Although for what it's worth, I also have never had an issue finding a seat in comfort+ available within that window either.