tidecat

The casino department runs Bingo and Deal or No Deal, even if they are held in the theater.

There is another thread about this, but the cruise terminal itself is being used as a command center. Until the JIC, Coast Guard, and Navy clear out there will be no cruising from Baltimore. I would suspect it will come down to when the Dali can be safely towed away from the scene.

Carnival's first quarter FY 2024 10-Q has $2.138 billion in new fixed assets during the quarter. That would have included Carnival Jubilee (reported by Cruise Industry News at $950 million) and Sun Princess (reported as $1 billion). It's possible there may have been some non-ship asset purchases that quarter, but even if not, we're not talking about less than 10% variance. It's also possible there are some costs paid to contractors other than the shipyard associated with placing those ships into service that are being capitalized with the ships. I would expect the price to go up somewhat due to the all of the inflation that has happened since the original Excel class order was placed. I just question whether the amount financed is actually specific to Excel 4, or if it may have been secured in anticipation of the larger order with Fincantieri that so far has not materialized. It's also possible Meyer Werft may have material surcharges built into the price and Carnival would have to cover the worst case scenario for those. Just because they secured $1.4 billion in financing doesn't mean they have to take the entire amount.

Do you have a source for that? I have a hard time believing that the cost nearly doubled from 2020 ($950 million). Cruise Industry News has Excel 4 and Excel 5 at $950 million each, and the 2028 Oasis class ship at $1.45 Billion.

Anyone can beat Royal Caribbean on price - I mean there's a 7-day Celebrity Beyond Western Caribbean sailing in November that is half the price of an Icon of the Seas Western Caribbean itinerary the same week. You could even do Alaska on Carnival in early August for half of what Royal is charging to take you to Cozumel three months later. The real question is can Royal keep up the sky high prices for all of the new builds? If that bubble bursts, there may not be anything left with which to compete.

The Fantasy class may be paid for, but Carnival Corporation will still be recognizing depreciation expense on them until 2028. To use your own words against you, the depreciation on the Fantasy class ships is based on the original purchase price of $300 Million, it is not adjusted for inflation. So you really can't compare the paper costs of the ships themselves. The older ship is less fuel efficient. The port taxes based on time at the port and length of the ship may ultimately be pass-throughs, but they aren't going to be 40% of what an Excel ship pays - and if the cruise doesn't sell out you're stuck with the expense. The crew complement also doesn't scale in a linear fashion; Fantasy class ships carry 920 crew, Excel class has 1735; if it was linear, Mardi Gras would have more than 630 extra crew members. Now if Carnival wants to build another Fantasy class ship today, they would have to pay the inflated price for that ship (approximately $600 Million). That's going to be significantly more per lower berth than the newer ships. New engineering work is probably going to have to be done anyway because I'm sure SOLAS has been updated a few times, so that may add even more costs. A smaller ship will never be more cost efficient.

Agreed, if the market softens it will be the older and smaller ships that get offloaded first. In Carnival's case it may not necessarily be the oldest (Sunshine) or smallest (Elation/Paradise) Carnival uses a 30-year deprecation schedule for their ships and keeps a 15% residual value While the ships were paid for decades ago, Carnival still has to take a charge on its P&L when it sells the ship (either for scrap or to another operator). Obviously any secured debt can make a ship sale more complicated, but generally speaking it would be possible to substitute a comparable or more valuable vessel without a lien on it with the consent of the lender. Carnival has paid off some secured debt which has removed the lien from some vessels. Larger ships will always be more fuel efficient. Royal's Oasis-class actually uses less fuel in total, not just per passenger, than some of their older ships. The break even point on larger ships is also much lower than it is on older ships. Since Carnival Corporation doesn't publish financial results by brand, any figures you see include everything from Carnival Cruise Line to Seabourn. Royal has stated the break even point on the Oasis-class is actually around 35%, while older ships run closer to 50% (https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2021/08/new-royal-caribbean-ships-break-even-at-35-percent-occupancy/#:~:text=What occupancy does Royal Caribbean,executive vice president and CFO.) - I would expect Carnival sees a similar spread, even if the starting point is higher. About 10-12% of the cost of your cruise is the cost of the ship itself. The Excel class is around $183,000 per lower berth (2020 dollars). The Fantasy class, adjusted for inflation, is around $296,000. Even if all other costs are the same on a per-passenger basis, the Fantasy class ship might eke out a 5% profit instead of a 15% profit given the same fare. Except we know the costs likely aren't going to be the same; even if the captain on Mardi Gras makes considerably more than the Elation, a vacant lower berth on Mardi Gras means you're only missing 1/5300 of the Captain's salary instead of 1/2100 like you would on Elation or Paradise. Now consider that for every static position like an engineer, cruise director, HR director, etc. Then the passenger on the larger ship spends more because there are more places onboard for them to part with their money. The bigger ship wins every time.

Even if Carnival's 2027 and 2028 ships wind up being replacements instead of additional vessels, Carnival Cruise Line basically has to capture over 12% of the industry's growth worldwide, and that's assuming the new ship even does just week-long cruises (52 x (5,380 - 2,980) = 124,800 additional lower berths). By the time you throw in third and fourth passengers this is probably more like 15% or 16%. If Carnival winds up shifting inventory more towards shorter cruises, the requisite percentage could be higher still.

Not much left Costa can hand down that fits for the height restricted ports - just Deliziosa. I think Costa has the fleet they want for the foreseeable future to serve Europe, Asia (sans China), and Latin America. If they wanted to part with more ships it would have likely already happened. Now if a non-vertically challenged port needs a new ship, Costa could be used to free up a Spirit-class ship from Mobile, Brisbane, or Galveston. But sometime in the 2030s or 2040s, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Tampa are going to run out of options without relocating their port or raising their bridges.

Depends on the itinerary of course, but typically the first call to an ABC island is a longer one with an evening departure. The second island is typically a shorter call since it is so far to the next port (or home port). I have seen some that stop at Aruba first and some that stop at Bonaire first.

I did it on the Elation. Other than the last several groups all being called at the same time (I chose the last possible group), it worked well.

If all of the Spirit class live to be 30-35, this will be an issue sometime next decade if not the early 2040s. Luminosa was built in 2009 and is presumably the last out for the height-restricted ports. Carnival has an option with the port of Jacksonville to stay there through 2030 when Elation will be 32 years old, so that should offer us some clue. Tampa and Jacksonville may ultimately get screwed by their proximity to Port Canaveral. Mainstream lines are not going to build smaller ships. The upmarket lines may come in behind them but they will have issues by the 2050s as they are also building progressively larger ships.

And then shortly after that a 5th Excel class for 2028.

They do, but look at the growth from s standpoint of passenger capacity, not the number of vessels. A 5,000 passenger ship can replace two ships with ~2,000 passengers each, and there is still an increase of 1,000 passengers per sailing. Remember that Norwegian will have four ships due between now and 2029 and then four more between 2030 and 2036. If capacity grows too quickly, prices fall and they don't make as much money. Carnival was able to do something similar coming out of the shutdown: Mardi Gras (5,300) > Fantasy (2,100) + Fascination (2,100) Venezia (4,200) = Imagination (2,100) + Inspiration (2,100) Celebration (5,300) > Ecstasy (2,100) + Sensation (2,100) That gave Carnival about 2,200 more lower berths with 3 fewer vessels. That's not even counting the additions of Luminosa (2,200), Jubilee (5,300), or Firenze (4,200). Norwegian may be faced with a similar consolidation as older ships near end-of-life status.

It's probably going to happen at some point during this contract, and it may even start before the first ship on this order enters service in 2030, as there are still four ships left on the current order. Spirit entered service in 1998, Sky in 1999, and both Sun and Star in 2001. Ships over 30 years old are much more difficult to maintain. Norwegian might even retire two ships each nearly simultaneously in 2030 and 2032 as each of the newbuilds has a capacity that is more than double that of their four smallest ships.