PelicanBill

"What, no cruise ships? Here's another storm for you!" Well, Epsilon's plan is unchanged from yesterday. Still looking to pass well enough to the east to avoid hurricane force winds for Bermuda.

The Atlantic depression became Tropical Storm Epsilon this morning. Its path is heading near Bermuda, possibly at hurricane strength, which would be a third strike or near pass for Bermuda this season. It's showing fairly well east which could mean tropical storm strength for Bermuda, similar to the last one.

The Atlantic disturbance is now Depression 27. The "circling" is done and it is heading toward Bermuda now and forecast to be a hurricane. Third time for Bermuda? yikes.

It appears the strong high pressure over the eastern US and another just off the graphic to the north are blocking in this system and pushing it south a bit. When that one over the US moves east the low pressure circulation will shift around it and then the conventional lift will come in behind it.

Thumbnails of the track models and the intensity model runs. Looks like after some drift south a westward wind picks it up and then the usual recurve kicks on so we get a big circle. It is so far not expected to get stronger than Tropical Storm level.

I think the ropes course space along is nowhere near enough for a go kart track. You'd have to kill Spice H2O and I think there would be a revolt. Well at least from me LOL.

I could not find any good explanation yesterday but will try to see today. Here's the update: only 30% for the Caribbean wave but we're up to 80% in 2 days and 90% in 5 days for the Atlantic one, with a more southerly motion now,

I believe his lawyer said "take the deal" because the photos of him leaning out the window BEFORE dropping his granddaughter means his defense of "I didn't know the window was open" is going to be rejected by any reasonable jury in a criminal trial. I really hope Royal Caribbean takes the civil suit to trial and doesn't settle. Unfortunately these almost always settle. But the idea that Cruise lines can be held negligent for people circumventing railings and window height or unsupervised children has to stop. I was foreman of a civil suit seeking to determine damages based on negligence. The instructions to the jury would be to assign % of responsibility to any party identified in the suit. Probably RCL and Grandfather here. You ask what would a reasonable person do? If 100 grandfathers were watching their grandchildren is it reasonable that many of them would be confused and hold the child OUT the window? I believe a jury needs to find 100% fault or close to it with the grandfather. Let's say the jury chooses 90% grandfather 10% RCL. Then the jury determines what the damages should be. Let's say they choose $1M. That means RCL would be out $100K plus the trial costs. Or would they offer $500K to make it all go away?

There are two things going on here. First, as a novel (new) virus things are going to change... week by week, month by month. Science has to do its work to perform studies, collect data, analyze, review, publish. It's no surprise that it took some time to figure out it is airborne and that trasfer by surface is less common. We start with what we know, learn and update. The other is the muzzling of the CDC. The White House has been suppressing and overriding and delaying the CDC's publishing. They even took over reporting of hospital data. Why would that happen when the CDC is the most respected organization in the world on these matters? To control the message and only offer information that fits "the narrative." It is shameful. Let the CDC do their job. Who do I trust to decide if cruise ships are safe: A white house task force with a doctor who has no infectious disease experience, or the CDC? Easy answer. Even if ships start to sail this year, I am glad I heard the CDC would have chosen February. That's the earliest I would decide to cruise now.

NCL is a collection of legal entities (companies) all around the world. Some are just to "own a ship" in the country of registration. But the US Company is where most of their cash income occurs and if that entity runs out of cash then the US company goes into Chapter 11 or 7. Lack of cash being sent to the other entities could cause outflow events for the entities in other countries.

We don't know if that is temporary or permanent yet. No info.

Today's update shows the lower Caribbean wave at 30% chance but that Atlantic disturbance is creeping up to 40% now, with an odd direction of travel to the SW toward the islands. So we're watching both carefully. Development not likely in the short term, these are both over 5 days.

Well stated. I would add that CDC was paying close attention to the cruise ship situation - just go back to the detail provided with the no sail order. And they have always been the authority on disease. I feel we need to pay attention to their recommendations and not just override them because "it's time to get back to normal."

Wow thanks for all this! Breakaway's berth is a dry dock and it was dry for a time earlier this year. Someone had posted a rumor of scrubber installation but seems certain that is what is happening now for both ships. And more.

The wave we've been watching has fallen to 0% but we have two new areas of interest, each of which is at 20% chance.