tidecat

I still think Carnival is missing out on not putting Firenze in Seattle seasonally. Of course at some point the Alaska market becomes saturated as well, given that sister brands Princess and Holland America have a massive deployment there. But if Firenze is in Seattle, Spirit or Luminosa could work elsewhere during that season.

The real question is how many countries' laws she broke by doing this. All of the ships that homeport in Port Canaveral except Mardi Gras and Venezia are registered in Panama. There almost certainly was a call to the Bahamas, possibly other countries.

It was disclosed in Carnival's 10-K for 2023 (page 16): "During 2023, we completed the exit of our noncontrolling interest in Adora Cruises Limited, formerly CSSC Carnival Cruise Shipping Limited, a China-based cruise company (“Adora Cruises”), and recognized losses on exit of $21 million within other income (expense). As of November 30, 2022, our investment in Adora Cruises was $70 million. We provided an immaterial amount of services to Adora Cruises during 2023, 2022 and 2021 and we paid Adora Cruises a total of $55 million for the lease of ships during 2021. During 2021 we made capital contributions to Adora Cruises in the amount of $90 million."

ESPN has rights to the World Series in most of the Caribbean and South America. Carnival will have ESPN's Caribbean feed available onboard: https://www.mlb.com/postseason/international-broadcasters

I was on Seashore recently, you should have plenty of options for live television, news or otherwise. They had quite a few channels you typically would not have in the US.

The "CBSN" channel is not actually live. That is the only news channel Carnival carries in the cabins.

No.

We should get some information about Jubilee's (and Mardi Gras' and Celebration's) new sister due in 2027 before too long.

Nope: https://www.carnivalcorporation.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-fascination-move-mobile-2022

There are some busy weeks in the fall and winter months like around Thanksgiving, New Year's, and President's Day, but there just isn't 10-12 weeks of high demand in a row like there is in Q3. Carnival needs more Southern Hemisphere sailings to truly balance the seasonality. Unfortunately Australia has about 1/10 the population of the US. Australia and New Zealand also have caused the cruise industry a lot of pain the past few years. Brazil is a little closer to the US in population, but I don't think South America can match the North American market in terms of spending power. Carnival tried to get in Latin America with Fiesta Marina, but that didn't last too long. Not sure how well MSC does in Africa, but that's really about the only other option in the Southern Hemisphere. I believe Costa has some sailings out of South Africa but it's not close to a full-time home port. Alaska is also a very profitable market. Carnival Corp is well positioned there as they have significant assets landside in addition to a large deployment to the region each season.

Agreed. A lot of investors who look solely at the numbers are still going to see bad metrics on the balance sheet. It's going to take a few more quarters to shake that off. A profit of $0.05/share (Q4 estimate) is still a profit, but that's a big step down from $1.26/share (Q3). Carnival has always had seasonality, but it seems to be very pronounced.

It's back up over $18 right now, but still off from Friday's close.

Back in late 2018/early 2019 the management of the government took over operations of the San Juan Cruise Port. The decision to renovate the port was made, and basically management did it without the involvement of the cruise lines. Royal Caribbean eventually canceled all calls that were not under contract. Carnival announced the discontinuation of home port operations as of January 2022. Then of course, the world stopped. Eventually port operations were outsourced to Global Holdings, and it looks like things are getting patched up, both literally and figuratively. Carnival Cruise Line may not return (at least for homeport operations), but Princess is returning in 2025.

Latest update as of 12:30 PM: JACKSONVILLE – The port is currently open. Carnival Elation 09/21/2024 – The ship is expected to dock early afternoon today, Friday, September 27. Carnival Elation 09/26/2024 (now departing Friday, 09/27/2024) – This voyage is being shortened to at 3-day cruise, with a visit to Freeport. We will have more details about embarkation and options soon. To stay up to date, please sign up for text alerts by texting CCL1 to CRUISE (278473).

1:00 PM EDT update from Carnival. Not surprising given Helene's center is forecast to be in South Central Georgia on Friday: JACKSONVILLE – The port is currently closed. Carnival Elation 09/21/2024 – The ship is currently sailing a safe distance from the storm, en route to Jacksonville. Given the storm’s current location and track, it will not be able to return to Jacksonville today, Thursday, September 26. Once the storm passes and the port reopens, officials will be able to fully conduct a post-storm assessment before giving clearance to return. We are very tentatively anticipating sometime Friday, September 27, possibly Saturday, September 28. Carnival Elation 09/26/2024 – This voyage will not be departing Thursday, September 26. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as more information becomes available. To stay up to date, please sign up for text alerts by texting CCL1 to CRUISE (278473). The full update is on Carnival.com and addresses all of the other Florida and Gulf Coast ports