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About njhorseman

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  1. Micky Arison, chairman of Carnival Corporation, is a friend and supporter of POTUS, (Carnival was a sponsor of Trump's reality show "The Apprentice") but I haven't seen any of the Carnival lines being given permission to sail from US ports.
  2. "Cash flow break even" means the company will not be able to pay its debt service and will eventually be forced to file bankruptcy.
  3. As has happened in past articles by this author, there's a key factual error in the piece. CLIA is not an "international regulatory body". CLIA is a cruise industry trade association and has no regulatory authority . CLIA members agree to abide by its policies, but membership in CLIA is not mandatory and any cruise line is free to join the organization or not as it sees fit.
  4. You must know something they don't. When a vaccine is in trials no one can say "will soon get approved". Historically 90% of vaccines that make it to human trails eventually fail to make it to market. https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/05/19/we-roar-covid-vaccine-12-18-months-dont-count-it
  5. Do you have verification of that? Everything I've found says their vaccine is in trials just as a number of vaccines are. Like some other vaccines in trials they're looking at year end as a potential approval timeline. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine/potential-covid-19-vaccine-from-china-shows-promise-in-animal-tests-idUSKBN23H15J https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/chinese-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-year-end-government-body-says-idUSKBN2360GJ
  6. The exclusion issue is meaningless and irrelevant for as long as the cruise lines are not permitted to sail at all or have "voluntarily' suspended operations, as is currently the case.
  7. The opinion piece's quote from Warren Buffet nails it: “It’s only when the tide goes out,” Warren Buffett likes to say, “that you learn who’s been swimming naked.” The tide going out is particularly apt for the cruise industry.
  8. You're correct. Eventually the inability to pay their debt service would bankrupt the cruise lines.
  9. With the CDC No Sail order in place eliminating the PVSA doesn't solve the problem of Canada not admitting cruise ships because the cruise ships aren't allowed to go anywhere regardless.
  10. NCLH's auditors just changed their opinion about that and no longer have their previously stated "substantial doubt about NCLH's ability to continue as a going concern". https://www.thestreet.com/investing/norwegian-cruise-line-nclh-auditor-going-concern-warning-removed "Auditors for Norwegian Cruise Line remove the phrase 'substantial doubt about NCLH’s ability to continue as a going concern' thanks to the company's 'liquidity and management plans.'"
  11. I'm sure many other important clinical trials have been conducted at Zagazig University. They estimate 100 participants in the study. I can't wait to see the results... As skeptical as I am about the chances of a scientifically meaningful positive result, I actually hope I'm proven wrong.
  12. Sorry, but anecdotal evidence of the safety and efficacy of a medication or treatment is scientifically unacceptable. I don't care what someone claims it did in a nursing home. They could have changed to a different brand of apple juice that week. Maybe that's what worked.
  13. What you posted proves my point. Do you see all the shades of orange on Oregon's graphic? Oranges and reds indicate high infection growth rates.
  14. It could be repatriating crew. If it is going to a shipyard i doubt cosmetic refurbishment is on the agenda. Oceania won't be spending a dime that they don't have to There are mechanical and safety inspections mandated by SOLAS that must be completed every five years. They can't be postponed if the ship is going to be carrying passengers.
  15. No...your infection numbers are far worse than NJ's and we're worried about the turn we've taken recently...so much so that out governor put the brakes on the reopening process. I'm not cherry picking anything...I'm citing three data sources and two well-regarded effective reproduction rate models, all of which show Oregon to be heading in the wrong direction. The two reproduction rates have very similar results of 1.14 and 1.15 for Oregon, as opposed to 0.94 and 1.00 for NJ. NJ's reproduction rate is the 9th lowest in the US , Oregon's is 33rd, per rt.live ...so almost two thirds of the states have better (in other words, lower) reproduction rates than Oregon. Oregon has a positive test rate of 5.5% per covidactnow.org versus 1.5% for NJ. New Jersey has a bit over twice the population of Oregon, but our average number of new cases per day in the past week is less than 25% higher than Oregon's. Further Oregon is conducting contact tracing on 44% of cases, versus 100% in NJ per covidactnow.org. Adequate contact tracing is considered a key measure to control the spread of COVID-19. I'm not trying to make this into a war of NJ versus Oregon...my purpose is to show that you're misinterpreting or misunderstanding the numbers you're looking at. We're worried here, but our numbers are far better than yours, so maybe yours aren't as good as you think.
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