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HappyInVan

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  1. The problem with BC was that our Provincial Health Officer had no faith in the results from testing. Said that there were too many false negatives. So, we started off by only testing symptomatic returning travelers and their contacts. That works in small numbers when backed by a clinical examination. Field Marshal Moltke the Elder "no plan survives contact with the enemy" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmuth_von_Moltke_the_Elder Oops! Covid infiltrated the care/retirements homes! So, she directed the testing program at the vulnerable populations and employees. Without enough tests, the symptomatic general public was told to rest at home. No need for a test if you recover. Report to the hospital if you can't breath! At the time, it wasn't understood how quickly that patients could slip away. So, we lost a couple of guys who tried to tough it out at home. The advantage of a high test capacity is that you have reserves you can commit as the fight progresses. Cover returning travelers, as well as care homes. You do many tests in order to gain information about the spread and penetration of the disease, even if there are many false negatives. With enough tests you can get ahead of the disease, by confirming infections before they become infectious or symptomatic. Fortunately, our surge was just a puddle (see graph below). I'm not a medical person, and that's my take on the matter.
  2. Here's a positive example for our American friends to follow. British Columbia has a seventh of Canada's population. But, only 3% of the confirmed cases, and only 2% of the deaths. How was it possible when it has a huge Asian population? No miracles here. We are not a Teutonic model of deep organization and preparation. Rather, our residents pulled together like soldiers. This was a positive precondition. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/team-of-rivals-united-front-1.5570696 The government allowed the Provincial Health Officer to be the public face, and lead the campaign. The Premier was there to announce the lockdown and the reopening. The health minister worked behind the scenes, and credit must go to him for the strategic wins. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/long-term-care-crisis-covid19-pandemic-1.5589097 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-recovery-stage-1.5586557 The Provincial Health Officer is widely admired and trusted. That said, she had focused too much on the hospital program. Displayed signs of inflexibility, and had to be overruled by the health minister. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-coronavirus-metro-vancouver-hospital-icu-death-rate-1.5589695 Moreover, BC has only done a modest amount of testing. So, we were fortunate that our residents didn't mess it up. The interesting point is that the government did not impose shelter-in-place. Bars, salons, gyms and parks were closed. Factories and warehouses continued to operate. Offices did close their doors to the public. The courts were closed. Most retail shops closed themselves and did not reopen till June. The media provided information without gratuitous political editorials. The public was asked to avoid non-essential movement, and social distance. This they did like champions. The Premier didn't take credit for our success. Everyone had a part to play, and they didn't trip over each other. Actually, I was really surprised by how smoothly it went. Our residents are known to be independent minded and prone to demonstrations. Remember this important point. No one has a perfect game. What matters is how you recover from your mistakes. Hopefully, we will soon join our American friends on the cruise ships.
  3. I would rather listen to DR Fauci and colleagues for their experience and training, and ignore the opinionated civilians. You may not be concerned about the current mortality rate, but deaths lag infection and hospitalization. The more infected people, the more likely for seniors to get infected. Who's the server in the restaurant? The grocery clerk who bumps into you? Are they wearing masks? If I wasn't concerned about American lives, I would be laughing and breaking out the popcorn. Fix your problem, save your economy and let's get the ships sailing again.
  4. I see a lot of concern about the loss of life. And, we are annoyed that our cruises are cancelled. Hope that FL can fix the problem. Do you know what the positive test rate is? A month ago, the positive test rate was 3%. Today, it is at the 14% level. Is that alarming? What are the chances that cruise ships can depart in 2020?
  5. The results speak for themselves. I'm glad that the border is CLOSED!
  6. USA government 'encourages' use of mask on planes. Quite likely that cruise pax will also have to wear on board. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/trump-administration-issues-guidelines-for-air-travel-stops-short-of-social-distancing-onboard.html
  7. Here's useful details from CNBC... "On June 11, the EU published a four-part checklist that set forth “objective criteria” to create a “common list” of countries to lift travel restrictions into the EU and Schengen Area countries." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/why-americans-wont-be-traveling-to-europe-anytime-soon.html
  8. What's the point of going half way? You might as well have no mitigation measures. You'll have herd immunity some time in 2025. Then, the borders can reopen. In Arizona, they're reimposing some restrictions when their ICU beds are only at 89% capacity. They should wait until it's 100% capacity. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/arizona-reports-record-spike-in-new-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-ahead-of-pences-visit.html Then, the medical staff can walk away... https://ca.news.yahoo.com/im-health-care-worker-know-152320306.html
  9. The western hemisphere has finally overtaken Europe in terms of covid deaths per capita. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200629-covid-19-sitrep-161.pdf?sfvrsn=74fde64e_2 While Europe is opening up after defeating the disease, the Americas is facing an unchecked pandemic. Not good for cruising or the cruise companies. Here is the daily Florida DOH report... http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/state/state_reports_latest.pdf The bar charts (below) trace the changes in covid positive test rate from June 4 to 28. The disease has become 4x more prevalent in 3 weeks. Is it a matter of concern to the public? Yes, seniors (>65) in FL comprise 21% of the population. Is it a matter of concern to cruise pax? Definitely. Will cruise ships operate out of FL before summer 2021? IMO, unlikely. Could you cruise out of New York city? Residents of a state being quarantined will have to isolate for 14 days after arrival. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/eight-states-added-to-new-york-governors-quarantine-order.html Has NY defeated the disease? Looks like it. Their positive test rate is 1%. What does FL have to do to get their positive test rate to 1%? How long before the borders open again? https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n
  10. What are the chances that you'll be cruising in 2021? According to the Health Secretary... “‘We have to act’ — HHS Secretary Azar warns ‘window closing’ to halt coronavirus spike” https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/we-have-to-act-hhs-secretary-azar-warns-window-closing-to-halt-coronavirus-spike.html Why does Azar (a political appointee) contradict his bosses? That because at 40k cases a day, it is impossible to contact trace the disease in the hotspots. Let's assume that there are only 10 contacts per confirmed infection. That's 400k contacts a day. Then, there's the 10 additional contacts for each contact. Doing 500k tests a day for the entire USA is insufficient. You need 5 million tests a day (according to one study) to stay ahead of the disease. It would not be so bad, if the governments imposed distancing discipline. But, many red states won't. So, partial restrictions by municipalities won't be effective in defeating the disease. It won't be so bad if most Americans worn masks (temporary herd immunity). But perhaps a third won't. Effectively, there will be no herd immunity in some places. I was watching an interview on CNN with an ID specialist. Her comment was that the epidemic was turning from an 'unmitigated disaster' to an 'uncontrollable disaster'. Welcome to the next wave in fall. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/what-second-wave-of-covid-19-means-and-how-to-prevent-it.html What are the chances that HAL will ever sail again with its traditional customers?
  11. Plenty of documentary evidence from the medics. Of course, I believe Dr, Fauci and not the politicians! "Scientists are only starting to grasp the vast array of health problems caused by the novel coronavirus, some of which may have lingering effects on patients and health systems for years to come, according to doctors and infectious disease experts. Besides the respiratory issues that leave patients gasping for breath, the virus that causes COVID-19 attacks many organ systems, in some cases causing catastrophic damage..." https://ca.news.yahoo.com/scientists-just-beginning-understand-many-100748077.html
  12. "Study finds COVID-19 can damage lungs without showing symptoms" https://fox40.com/news/coronavirus/study-finds-covid-19-can-damage-lungs-without-showing-symptoms/
  13. Actually, I don't have a problem with social distancing. I sail for the destinations. The Norwegian fjords are magnificent. I'll gladly wear a mask in public areas. Look at the positives. A cruise ship at 50% capacity? Its like a dream!!!! 😍 Covid isn't the only bug going around. We'll all be healthier if we wear masks on an airplane and on a ship. I would book the trip in a heartbeat. The only problem are the pesky tests/isolation to get into the country. I just can't wait for Canada to form a bubble with the EU. 🤩
  14. Actually, this is from the CDC site May 23rd... https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/diy-cloth-face-coverings.html They recommend ... https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html they also include citations of recent studies. Why are there conflicting recommendations? https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-offer-conflicting-advice-masks-expert-tells-us/story?id=70958380 In fact, Dr. Faucci thinks... "Fauci said on June 9 that the virus is “very different” from other outbreaks such as Ebola and HIV. The virus jumped from an animal host and has a high degree of transmissibility and mortality, he said. It is historically one of the worst pandemics the world has ever experienced, he said, adding people have compared it to the 1918 flu.." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/dr-fauci-frustrated-americans-are-ignoring-science-amid-coronavirus.html Finally, you may not be aware of it. But, the positive percentage from anti-body tests (3-10%) are often lower than from the PCR tests. Therefore, the inclusion of anti-body tests makes the state look less infected. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
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