Tricks to getting a good deal on the flight?

And once again, let us say:

 

All of those supposed "scientific" studies of flight pricing are guilty of one fatal flaw. Averaging.

Well, what tools should I be using to determine what the medium and mean price for a particular price between point A and point B? A well-seasoned traveler would have a feel for this. Guess who isn't the well seasoned traveler?

If I'm purchasing tickets below the mean/medium price, then I'm probably getting a great deal provided the deal-of-a-flight doesn't hit five stops along the way. As far as I know, the rules to follow are: A. Fly in at least one day before your cruise, and B. Don't book your flight any earlier than noon of your ship return date. (depending on arrival).

Just remember the story of the group of amateur statisticians who drowned while walking across a river that had an average depth of 12 inches.

So true!! Love it!! :evilsmile:;p

As far as I know' date=' the rules to follow are: A. Fly in at least one day before your cruise, and B. Don't book your flight any earlier than noon of your ship return date. (depending on arrival).[/quote']

And C, don't compare the cost of your flight with the cost of your cruise. There are no victims here, only volunteers.

I have often wondered why some people compare the price of air to the price of the cruise. I just do not see how one relates to the other. Would they be happier if the cruise was more expensive so that the ratio would decrease?

Well' date=' what tools should I be using to determine what the medium and mean price for a particular price between point A and point B? A well-seasoned traveler would have a feel for this. Guess who isn't the well seasoned traveler? [/quote']

 

There are "tools" out there that can give you some historical data, but even that isn't a complete answer. Because there is none. Airline pricing truly is an example of highly-automated supply and demand price points. Airlines have far more data than the consumer, and have their yield management algorithms finely tuned to attempt to extract the maximum revenue from flights. So trying to "beat" those computer system is a fools errand. (And that is not an insulting term, but historic)

 

The best the occasional traveller can do is to look at pricing for their city pair and develop a feel for what trends may be. You need to consider day of the week and time of day, plus seasons, plus special events/holidays. The quick and dirty method is to look for a while and when you see a price that is "acceptable", take it.

 

Precisely because there is no simple easy method, we see lots of questions asking for "the tricks". Fare prediction websites cater to that desire for something simple to latch on to. Articles about "best time to buy" get lots of play.

 

My one piece of advice is to always go back to your Econ 101 - supply and demand. Remember that supply is relatively fixed - airlines don't just add additional flights to meet sporadic demand. On the demand side, more people want to fly to/from a cruise port on cruise day than two days before or after. Folks want flights midday rather than early morning or evening. Higher demand, higher pricing.

 

And for a WONDERFUL online education in economics, done with great videos that folks can understand and appreciate, I highly recommend Marginal Revolution University. Completely free and worth your time.

 

LINK to MR University

All that I know for sure is that my gut feeling said that booking my tickets two weeks ago at $324 was an excellent move, as they are now priced at $426.

Just for fun' date=' I checked again the price of my flight through Kayak even though I have already booked it. $425... an increase of $101 since I booked it on the 22nd.[/quote']And, in my totally unscientific measure of a cost of a flight, after going up to $426 (whoopie, $1), it has dropped back down to $390.

Continuing my totally non-scientific measure of a cost of a flight, my flight (or something close to it) is now $437.

Checking... the times of my flight have indeed changed by a few minutes. Not a big deal.... it's still a decent hour to fly cross-country.

Lets see here.... it's almost a month since I purchased my tickets. I check the fare again today for the same flight.... and it's $469. If I'm calculating my percentage change correctly, that's a 44.75% change. Guess my gut feeling was correct....

Still $469... and at basic economy too!

The only conclusion that I can conclude is that if I want a flight with decent departure/arrival times and at a good price, I'm best to book early.

Still $469... and at basic economy too!

 

The only conclusion that I can conclude is that if I want a flight with decent departure/arrival times and at a good price' date=' I'm best to book early.[/quote']

 

I have to agree. We needed to book for March break so prime time. Booked our flight opening day at great price. One week later, the price doubled (and all airlines very expensive).

Still $469... and at basic economy too!

 

The only conclusion that I can conclude is that if I want a flight with decent departure/arrival times and at a good price' date=' I'm best to book early.[/quote']

 

That is why the very common advice on this board is to book when you find an acceptable fare...usually earlier, rather than later, and don't look back. And that there is no magic way to get the "best" (whatever that means) fares.

That is why the very common advice on this board is to book when you find an acceptable fare...usually earlier, rather than later, and don't look back. And that there is no magic way to get the "best" (whatever that means) fares.

Yes.

Yes.

Yes.

And if you didn't notice the first couple times....yes.

This obsession with finding "the best" fare is disheartening. Especially the belief that somehow, somewhere - there is a hidden "secret" that will unlock that mystic utopian Shangri-La of rock bottom pricing.

Yes, there is a secret. But the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus aren't telling.

This obsession with finding "the best" fare is disheartening. Especially the belief that somehow, somewhere - there is a hidden "secret" that will unlock that mystic utopian Shangri-La of rock bottom pricing.

From what I have seen, if you are paying for the ticket, you tend to find the best price possible. If someone else is footing the bill, then the need to find the lowest price isn't as great. I can personally attend to this.... when I was on a business trip last year on the company's dime, I had a bag or two of chips and some bottled water from the room's fridge and snack bar. I would never do that on personal travel because of the premium, but that bag of chips ended up being my dinner for the night (it was an extremely busy day, and the bed was calling my name.)

Seriously, does anyone enjoy the flying experience anymore? I consider it a necessary evil, and some people would prefer going to the dentist. There are multiple factors for why this is occurring. Can you blame us for paying as little as possible for this experience?

From what I have seen' date=' if [u']you[/u] are paying for the ticket, you tend to find the best price possible. If someone else is footing the bill, then the need to find the lowest price isn't as great. I can personally attend to this.... when I was on a business trip last year on the company's dime, I had a bag or two of chips and some bottled water from the room's fridge and snack bar. I would never do that on personal travel because of the premium, but that bag of chips ended up being my dinner for the night (it was an extremely busy day, and the bed was calling my name.)

 

Seriously, does anyone enjoy the flying experience anymore? I consider it a necessary evil, and some people would prefer going to the dentist. There are multiple factors for why this is occurring. Can you blame us for paying as little as possible for this experience?

How often do you hear people boasting about how cheap their flight ticket was, forgetting that the flight itself was purgatory!

Sent from my SM-T580 using Forums mobile app

The problem nowadays is that people know the price of everything, and the value of nothing. Hence the constant cost cutting in order to get the price down, with the consequent downgrading of value.

How often do you hear people boasting about how cheap their flight ticket was, forgetting that the flight itself was purgatory!

 

Sent from my SM-T580 using Forums mobile app

Sent from my Kestrel using Forums mobile app

 

Seriously' date=' does anyone enjoy the flying experience anymore? [/quote']

 

Yes

Seriously' date=' does anyone enjoy the flying experience anymore? [/quote']

 

Oh YES! Because really if I'm on an airplane it means I am going somewhere nice on a holiday and I'm NOT at home doing dishes or laundry. It usually means a hotel is waiting at the end, and maybe a cruise or a beach or something fabulous so I am excited every single time I drive to the airport! :D

Oh YES! Because really if I'm on an airplane it means I am going somewhere nice on a holiday and I'm NOT at home doing dishes or laundry. It usually means a hotel is waiting at the end, and maybe a cruise or a beach or something fabulous so I am excited every single time I drive to the airport! :D

Absolutely agree...

To help we this, we do our research, and when we are comfortable, we book, AND NEVER LOOK BACK!!

Absolutely agree...

 

To help we this, we do our research, and when we are comfortable, we book, AND NEVER LOOK BACK!!

Exactly! Usually I do a google flight search and set an alert to notify me when the prices go up and/or down. For our upcoming flights to Rome I set the alert and when it came back with a good price (actually cheaper than what we paid in 2013 to Europe) with nice times, I booked in a flash and then ended the alert. I don't need to see if the price goes down further. I know I like the flight times and price and I"m satisfied. :)

Seriously' date=' does anyone enjoy the flying experience anymore?[/quote']Yes! I've just had a great experience flying London - New York round-trip for a weekend visit. Looked after fabulously well on a day flight over, and about 5½ hours solid sleep on the way back.

 

NYC wasn't bad, either.

 

Still $469... and at basic economy too!

 

The only conclusion that I can conclude is that if I want a flight with decent departure/arrival times and at a good price' date=' I'm best to book early.[/quote']For all your self-congratulatory posts, let me tell you a story.

 

I've been looking to book a flight on a specific date later in the year. Between inefficiency, distraction and the sense that it's still a long way off, I hadn't actually done it for a period of months. Over that time, prices for the relevant part of the day on that travel date have fallen significantly. I could see why - there were increasing amounts of inventory in the lowest booking classes. Eventually, when we managed to plan the exact time that we needed the flight, there were two options: both non-stop, 10 minutes apart. One cost the equivalent of about USD 50 (including all the extras we needed, as it's a low-fare airline), and the other one was almost double that (and we wouldn't need extras because of our frequent flyer scheme benefits).

 

So as we were ready, we booked the first one. Three days later, the other airline had a sale and we could have got our all-inclusive ticket with frequent flyer benefits for USD 45.

 

That's airline life - you just never know what's going to happen next.

Food for thought, Globaliser....

In the past year, I traveled on business from SMF → IAH → SJO → IAH → SMF. Then, for pleasure, I traveled from SMF → PDX → YVR to my cruise, and YVR → SEA → SMF on the way back. This was a personal best for me for miles flown in a single year. For people like you, that is just a drop in the proverbial bucket.

Airlines and travel isn't my expertise. But, as I learned, the best way to develop expertise is to actually do it. Sure all of the online research and book learning helps, but there is nothing that matches actual experience. To demonstrate to you how clueless I am, I had expected my airline tickets for my upcoming cruise to be $400.... each way! Imagine my surprise when I pulled up Kayak and saw that the price round trip was $324. My gut feeling said get those tickets now. So far, my gut feeling was proven right.

As part of my totally unscientific study, I thought that I would track the price of my plane ticket post-purchase utilizing Kayak to get the fare. Sight problem.... while my flight from Sacramento (SMF) to Fort Lauderdale (FLL) via Washington DC (IAD) still exists, the return flight via IAD no longer exists on the search engine. I found something similar with slightly later departure times and going through Houston (IAH)... for $522. :mad:

Hmmm.... lets expand the parameters to a departure from Sacramento to be between 5 AM and 10 AM, and departure from Fort Lauderdale between 11 AM (slightly dangerous as my ship docks at 7 AM) and 3 PM. It still looks OK... provided that I make a 6 AM flight and have to deal with a possible long layover.

My conclusion to my unofficial study remains the same... if you want to get a good price with decent arrival/return times, book early.

I went to United's site directly, and found my trip.... at a hefty cost. :o :eek: That 99.2% more than what I paid for my seats in the first place.

Some of the alternatives aren't as attractive as well.

And, just for fun, I thought I would check Southwest and their sale.... $521.60. Ouch.

Southwest Airlines - Trip and Price Details.pdf