Refundable ticket as backup plan for winter weather issues on FF ticket?

Help me understand how crazy this idea is:

We are flying EWR-MIA on 12/26 for a 12/27 cruise departure. First two days are sea days, then are in Columbia and ABC's so not easy to "catch up". Ticket is AA on frequent flier miles. Not the last flight of the day, and many alternate routes (to FLL, through Charlotte, etc.) if there is an equipment issue. So we should be OK *unless* there is a weather issue closing down EWR. In which case uh-oh! Around the holidays I assume the next day would likely have few openings, especially for mileage seats.

I was wondering how much sense it made to have refundable back-up tickets for morning of 12/27 in case 12/26 is a no-fly day. UA would be $1800ish at the moment (I assume refundable fares don't vary that much?), Jet Blue $476 on Blue Flex (no refund, but full credit and no change fee up to departure time, just have to use credit within a year). I may be paranoid but it seems like tempting fate to do the refundable ticket on AA (hm, these folks are highly unlikely to show for EWR-MIA one way itinerary 2 days in a row lol). Basically the cost would be the time value of the interest-free loan we're giving to the airline while we tie up a seat in their reservation system.

Any glitches/downsides/delusions to this idea that I am missing? TIA :)

How about if the airport closure on the 26th spills over to the 27th. Even with a refundable ticket, your flight isn't going in that case.

Then, even if the airport may be open, you would also have to be sure that YOUR aircraft is at EWR (did it get there before the closure) AND that there is a full crew available to fly the aircraft (both due to crew scheduling and to potential timing out issues).

Think back to weather events of the past...when a major hub has been forced to shutdown, the system didn't just bounce back into place the next morning. It takes days (or longer) to get the intricate ballet of machines and people back meshing smoothly.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln......

There are no glitches but December is not a particularly snowy month in NJ. In my many years of flying out of EWR Feb and March have much more risk of snow. Of course there is no promise on the weather so if it makes you feel more comfortable and you don't mind doing interest free loan then go for it.

Good points, thanks for sharing the accumulated wisdom! Flyer Talker you are so right - illustrated by the whole memory that has me worried this time ---

15 years ago or so we had a SEA-SAN flight just after Christmas - airport was technically open but no flights due to no de-icing fluid on hand. They could re-book us 4 days in future *but* there was another storm predicted that day *and* even if we made it we would have seen DH's parents for just a day in SAN - and they were the reason for going to SAN in the first place. We ended up driving to SFO (first airport open with available flights).

I'm booking 2 and even 3 days in advance even though I live in the desert SW. If theres weather on the east coast in March, delays and cancellations could roll across the country. I hate that hotels are so expensive in Ft. Lauderdale in March but chalk it up to the cost of a cruising vacation from Florida in winter.

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I was wondering how much sense it made to have refundable back-up tickets for morning of 12/27 in case 12/26 is a no-fly day. UA would be $1800ish at the moment (I assume refundable fares don't vary that much?), Jet Blue $476 on Blue Flex (no refund, but full credit and no change fee up to departure time, just have to use credit within a year). I may be paranoid but it seems like tempting fate to do the refundable ticket on AA (hm, these folks are highly unlikely to show for EWR-MIA one way itinerary 2 days in a row lol). Basically the cost would be the time value of the interest-free loan we're giving to the airline while we tie up a seat in their reservation system.

 

Any glitches/downsides/delusions to this idea that I am missing?

Have you instead looked at the cost of a very comprehensive travel insurance policy that would get you to the ship if you were to miss it for weather or some other reason? You might find that the cost/risk ratio is better with that: you'd have to pay the premium anyway, so that is a sunk cost in any event. But if you have to call on it, you won't be irrecoverably out of pocket by almost four thousand dollars (assuming that there are two of you flying). So this is worth looking at as another possible alternative. (You are unlikely to have to rush to buy those full-fare refundable tickets just yet, so you have time to think about this.)

The other possible approach, depending on what the cruise is and what your attitude to it is, is to accept that sometimes things will just go so badly wrong that you will miss it, and that a $1,800+ per person cost to reduce (but not eliminate) the risk is just more than the possibility of missing the cruise is worth. Only you can evaluate this, but it is again a risk management approach. And you may be able to get affordable travel insurance that basically refunds you the cost of the cruise if you miss it because you can't get to it. If you don't have the luxury of time and money that allows you to fly to the departure port several days ahead, so that there's an element of risk that you can't reasonably eliminate by adjusting your overall plans, then insurance against the wasted cost may be the best safety net.

Travel insurance that covers the eventualities you are worried about and gives you a full refund would surely be a far better idea?

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Thanks all. Perspectives are helpful! Not to mention anxiety assuagement lol.

Usually we go in early or there is an easy-to-catch-up port on day 2 (SJU, Key West etc.). But in this case we are choosing not to skip Christmas Day celebration (and are not asking family to move it to a different day...) and that narrows the window!

We do have flight interruption/delay coverage. My concern about travel insurance is that there might be no seats available, period.

Given that the drive time to PortMiami from our Christmas Day celebration location is 22 hours according to mapquest, we could just drive if we had to, starting the evening of the 25th. Christmas Day is 6 hours drive from EWR, so usually (not always) a major snowstorm doesn't hit both simultaneously.

We could wait until 10 days out before pulling the lever on the refundable fare. And could have a car rental reservation (refundable, not pre-paid) just in case - wouldn't make sense to use our own car since the cruise ends in NYC :)

Thanks all. Perspectives are helpful! Not to mention anxiety assuagement lol.

 

Usually we go in early or there is an easy-to-catch-up port on day 2 (SJU, Key West etc.). But in this case we are choosing not to skip Christmas Day celebration (and are not asking family to move it to a different day...) and that narrows the window!

 

We do have flight interruption/delay coverage. My concern about travel insurance is that there might be no seats available, period.

 

Given that the drive time to PortMiami from our Christmas Day celebration location is 22 hours according to mapquest, we could just drive if we had to, starting the evening of the 25th. Christmas Day is 6 hours drive from EWR, so usually (not always) a major snowstorm doesn't hit both simultaneously.

 

We could wait until 10 days out before pulling the lever on the refundable fare. And could have a car rental reservation (refundable, not pre-paid) just in case - wouldn't make sense to use our own car since the cruise ends in NYC :)

Instead of driving to Florida, you can also monitor PHL and BAL and DCA airports to see which was not hit as hard and still flying...

bon voyage

Good point Bo1953.

I think we now have plans A, B, C, D & maybe E lol - anxiety levels down to undetectable levels.

Thanks all!

Babysteps, not to add to your anexity...but if you are thinking about renting a car and driving two things to consider. 1, book it NOW because once the weather goes south one way car rentals are hard to get. 2. If the weather is that bad in the NJ area driving out may be a problem.

We do have flight interruption/delay coverage. My concern about travel insurance is that there might be no seats available, period.

 

Usually we go in early or there is an easy-to-catch-up port on day 2 (SJU, Key West etc.).

I think I've read that SJU is exempted from the PVSA, but Key West is not. If you fly to Key West to join a ship that is ultimately disembarking at another US port (ex. Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, etc.) it would be a violation of the PVSA and I don't think you'd be allowed to that.