Chance of getting a better deal after booking

We will be taking our first Alaska cruise in May 2019 and only our third cruise ever. We are looking at sailing on HAL. We can book either a fare that has a non refundable deposit or a fare with refundable deposit which is $200 more per person ($400 total). With the non refundable deposit fare we will be locked in to the lower price. Since our sail date is more than a year out, the sales rep for HAL suggested that we should go with the higher refundable deposit fare which would allow us to take advantage of any specials/promotions that might become available before we sail. My question is how common or likely is it that there will be a price reduction or promotion greater than the $400 we'll be saving with the non refundable fare?

There is nobody that is going to be able to answer your question. It is all supply and demand, and not predictable at all. But I would book the refundable fare for, and so many other reasons.

I would definitely book the refundable deposit. I have often found cruise prices drop as the cruise gets closer.

We saved over $1000 on our upcoming Alaska cruisetour, booked several months ago.

I would definitely book the refundable deposit. I have often found cruise prices drop as the cruise gets closer.

We saved over $1000 on our upcoming Alaska cruisetour, booked several months ago.

You have "often found" fares to drop, but how many of those are after final payment, when you can't rebook at the lower rate?

Fares often drop after final payment when you can’t take advantage of the price drop. But I have seen several drops before final payment, when you can get a price adjustment.

I started out with a refundable deposit that came with a beverage package. I switched to the non and saved $200 per person for our 2018 Alaska HAL trip. I knew we would not drink $400 worth. Our date is almost sold out, so I am not expecting any drop. I also transferred this trip from HAL to a big box TA and got an on board credit.

On Royal you could drop even with a non refundable deposit until final payment. My cabin (inside) has dropped a lot. My parents cabin (balcony on the “correct” side of the ship) has dropped very little. Final payment in 2 weeks. So I’ve found that even for the same sailing it’s been cabin dependent.

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I booked ours on Royal more than a year out. I checked weekly and the price only went up. Now it's about double what I paid. I think if you are booking early and the price seems like a great deal (for reference: ours was $689 per person/inside cabin with $100 OBC), it's not going to drop. You could always spend the $59pp for insurance instead of paying $200.

Book the cabin / price you are satisfied with, then watch for price drops. Early and late season has the possibility for more price drops than mid-summer. There is also a possibility that you can upgrade to a better cabin / location for the same price or small payment. We booked an Inside on Royal about 6 months out before our May 2017 cruise. At about 4 months out, we upgraded to on OV for only $ 50pp more when the price dropped. About 60 days out, we upgraded to a Balcony for an additional $ 50 pp when those cabins dropped. The balcony price dropped by over $ 1,000 pp to $ 1,149 pp on our 9 night cruise from the time we originally booked to when we upgraded to the balcony.

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In October of 2016, we booked a cruise to Alaska on HAL for a July 2017 sailing --- our cruise price only went up --- never came down.

In November of 2017, we booked the same cruise to Alaska on HAL for a June 2018 sailing --- our cruise price has only gone up --- never came down and is also sold out.

In February of 2018, we booked the same cruise to Alaska for a June 2019 sailing --- our cruise price has increased from when we first booked.

My advice to you is price your cruise with and without perks and refundable vs. nonrefundable deposit and see what works best for you. We booked nonrefundable because of the savings and the fact that we liked the price, wanted to secure a reservation and ensure we got the cruise itinerary we wanted at an affordable price.

We book early.

Higher price and lower rooms go first.

We prefer having choice of rooms when we book.

Also optimal rooms in all categories go first.

If price goes down we followup to try to get the lower price.

Keith

It doesn't sound like you want to be flexible and have the date and ship selected?

The bottom rates require a great deal of flexibility, along with full acceptance of not going. :)

This season, I'll be totally in that camp as I have nothing booked for this season. I've blocked out weeks this season and will be able to pick up most any week in June, July and August (my preferences). (will be in NYC for a week, per usual for 4th of July, plus a couple Gloucester weeks thrown in for my humpbacks)

I think there will be some oversupply with the Bliss replacement and more that 1200 passenger per week additional. :) :) :)