Wondering what to expect...

[MamaParrotHead]

When buying airfare for our last cruise (weekend after Thanksgiving) we were forced to be a bit flexible but got a good deal on Delta and can't complain about the quality of service inflight or on the ground.

 

Now I'm going to start researching for our next cruise, leaving right after the holidays next year (1/8/11). I'm just curious as to how the fares might compare (is that time of year considered peak?) and what the future holds as far as fare trends (I know that right after I purchased our airfare last year, the fares went higher and flights were eliminated). Does anyone "in the know" have any thoughts on whether more or less flight time choices will be on the horizon?

 

I know, no one has a crystal ball, etc. etc. I just wondered if any of the knowledgeable people that actually follow the travel trends and airlines have heard anything regarding these topics.

 

Thanks.

[paul929207]

I would expect the fares to be lower unless you are flying to or thru a city with a major college bowl game. That might drive up business enough to raise rates.

[fbgd]

Now I'm going to start researching for our next cruise, leaving right after the holidays next year (1/8/11).

 

From an airline's standpoint Jan 2011 is an eon away.

 

That metaphorical crystal ball doesn't work a few weeks out, let alone 13 months.

 

Be aware that despite what many say the cheapest fares don't go on sale immediately and that you are bound to have a few reschedules if you book as soon as the tickets become available.

[MamaParrotHead]

From an airline's standpoint Jan 2011 is an eon away.

 

That metaphorical crystal ball doesn't work a few weeks out, let alone 13 months.

 

Be aware that despite what many say the cheapest fares don't go on sale immediately and that you are bound to have a few reschedules if you book as soon as the tickets become available.

 

Thanks, I'm aware of both of those things. Just wondering if anyone with contacts has heard whisperings of anything.

[Gardyloo]

January is not peak of peaks, but definitely high season for places like the Caribbean or Hawaii. It's less of a problem for Finland or North Dakota. It helps if you say where you're flying. Since it's Cruise Critic, I'm guessing not North Dakota.

 

Airfares for mid January 2011 won't even be published until around March 2010 (330 days in advance for most airlines.)

 

Where do I think airfares are heading? Tell me the price of oil in March 2010 and I'll have a better idea. Seat of the pants, though, is that low oil costs and high unemployment (today) has led to lower-than-average demand. If the economy improves, and/or the cost of oil increases over the next year, both of which are IMO pretty darned likely, then I would expect airfares to go up accordingly.

 

On the other hand, paying for January tickets in March means the airline has your money for 10 months, earning interest or paying bills, while you don't.

[MamaParrotHead]

Would be flying out of MLI. Airfare is never "cheap" for us...just wondering if it would be in the same neighborhood as we paid peak/holiday fares this year.

[CruiserBruce]

I agree with Gardyloo on almost all of what was said. It is near impossible to predict prices. Any number of things can happen.

 

I do have to add that our Business fare SFO-FRA-FCO has increased close to 20% since we bought, and we bought shortly after the booking window opened. So holding your breath could cost you 20%, if you didn't buy when the fares are low. But you can only way you can tell if they were low is hindsight- which is always 20-20:D. Comparing to a previous time can give info, but if that time was influenced by other conditions, do those conditions apply now?

 

I was watching business fares for many months prior to our booking, comparing to many times of the year. I saw fares as much as 25% lower as well, but that was for the very early summer- actually just before the Europe summer season. And since we purchased, we have seen sales for business fares during the winter holiday period for 1/3 what we paid.

 

I figure the reason is the SFO-FRA portion of the route is popular, and this itinerary is in Aug 2010, returning Sept 2010- pretty prime time.

 

So, I guess if you are going to committ precious dollars to a cruise, you also need to be able to committ dollars to airfares, and don't look back.

[fbgd]

just wondering if it would be in the same neighborhood as we paid peak/holiday fares this year.

 

Depends what you paid and where you were flying to.

[MamaParrotHead]

I paid $330 pp from MLI to MIA.

[PennyAgain]

In doing my budgeting for business travel I always figure a year out will have an increase of 15% over the current year. Sometimes it works out that what we actually have to pay is lower (but never much lower) but seldom higher than that.

 

Luggage fees came up as a surprise and yet were still covered in my 15% estimate.

 

Other things that came along as a surprise were the reductions in on board food service but I was still OK on my figuring.

 

I hope you get lucky, but I would plan for at least that amount and hope there is no Super Bowl around the same date in your destination city.