tbjl24 Posted August 23, 2012 #201 Share Posted August 23, 2012 2pm Update 8/23 Little if any change from 11am: I believe track updates are only done every 6 hours. 11am/11pm & 5am/5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 23, 2012 Author #202 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I believe track updates are only done every 6 hours. 11am/11pm & 5am/5pm That would explain why the darn thing never moves on the intermediate updates. :o I will continue to post the track map for the intermediate updates to keep it on the current page - I just won't wont need to type "no change from last update" So be looking for track updates at 5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm. Thanks for the tip, tbjl24! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggieworkman Posted August 23, 2012 #203 Share Posted August 23, 2012 So the tropical depression 10 has now been named Joyce? Maggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwg03 Posted August 23, 2012 #204 Share Posted August 23, 2012 So the tropical depression 10 has now been named Joyce? Maggie Correct. It is not TS Joyce. Looks to be turning NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggieworkman Posted August 23, 2012 #205 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I believe track updates are only done every 6 hours. 11am/11pm & 5am/5pm But the picture does say 2 PM. Maggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 23, 2012 Author #206 Share Posted August 23, 2012 So the tropical depression 10 has now been named Joyce?Maggie Yes TD10 is now a named storm - looks like it will impact Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 23, 2012 Author #207 Share Posted August 23, 2012 5pm Update - 8-23 - Still west of Florida.. .but: "DESPITE THE GENERAL WESTWARD SHIFT...THE HWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL CALL FOR ISAAC TO MOVE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THUS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO FLORIDA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST"http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/231453.shtml? Spaghetti Models: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Postman806 Posted August 23, 2012 #208 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Hahaha! I never worry about where the eye is, I always worry about the bands. Those cause the most destruction. The ocean is going to be all sorts of churned up this week(end). But if you end up in the path of the eye aren't you going to get hit twice by the band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 23, 2012 Author #209 Share Posted August 23, 2012 But the picture does say 2 PM. Maggie I think they issue "intermediate advisories" at 2am-8am-2pm-8pm that include discussion and warnings but the track updates are only generated at 5am-11am-5pm-11pm. I am not 100% sure of this... anyone feel free to advise on this. I did check all the past updates and I do not see any difference at all in the tracks during the intermediate advisories. I am checking and updating every three hours whenever possible so we will have the latest news here to plan and discuss. I do appreciate everyone's input and helpfulness on this thread! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggieworkman Posted August 23, 2012 #210 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I appreciate it because I am leaving Saturday!!! :eek: Maggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 23, 2012 Author #211 Share Posted August 23, 2012 But if you end up in the path of the eye aren't you going to get hit twice by the band? Hi Postman - welcome to the party! I am not a weather expert by any means, but being east of the eye in Florida gets more rain, wind and potential for tornadoes based on how the storm "spins off" the water it picks up in the Gulf. Anyone feel free to step in and expand on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare maxandmolly Posted August 23, 2012 #212 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I think they issue "intermediate advisories" at 2am-8am-2pm-8pm that include discussion and warnings but the track updates are only generated at 5am-11am-5pm-11pm. I am not 100% sure of this... anyone feel free to advise on this. I did check all the past updates and I do not see any difference at all in the tracks during the intermediate advisories. I am checking and updating every three hours whenever possible so we will have the latest news here to plan and discuss. I do appreciate everyone's input and helpfulness on this thread! :) The 2pm update had the eye clearing Cuba 8am Sunday morning, now it has it at 2pm. The track doesn't seem to be changing, although I expect the cone to get smaller once it clears Cuba-but every update seems to have it hitting the Bay area (or near it, across from it, whatever) later and later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 23, 2012 Author #213 Share Posted August 23, 2012 every update seems to have it hitting the Bay area (or near it, across from it, whatever) later and later. I don't think that's a good thing :mad: The longer it takes to get from Cuba to TB means more time to feed in the Gulf, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare maxandmolly Posted August 23, 2012 #214 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I don't think that's a good thing :mad: The longer it takes to get from Cuba to TB means more time to feed in the Gulf, right? Yes and no. The time between Cuba and TB seems to be holding the same, so I can't actually figure out where it's slowing down. Maybe over Hispaniola? I don't know. I just know I'm over it already, but today is Thursday and we're not looking at any effects until maybe Monday, probably Tuesday. Let's just get it over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 23, 2012 Author #215 Share Posted August 23, 2012 FROM THE NHC: "THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND ISAAC. THE DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS." Translation: 2 planes are doing very through checks of the hurricanes - what they find will be reflected in the 8pm track update. I'm getting better at this! :cool: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare maxandmolly Posted August 23, 2012 #216 Share Posted August 23, 2012 FROM THE NHC:"THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND ISAAC. THE DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS." Translation: 2 planes are doing very through checks of the hurricanes - what they find will be reflected in the 8pm track update. I'm getting better at this! :cool: I still maintain they won't really know anything til it clears Cuba and hits some Gulf waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 23, 2012 Author #217 Share Posted August 23, 2012 FROM THE NHC:"THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND ISAAC. THE DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS." Thinking this means they are doing track updates more often - maybe when new data from the planes come in??? We will see at 8! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaDivaMom Posted August 23, 2012 #218 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Yes if you are in the true path of the storm (the eye path) then you get the swirling winds that come from the east side which are powerful and spawn tornados and such and get the rain bands and opposite winds from the west that then pick up and blow everything the other way. The dangerous part is that you get a lull or calm and people assume it's ok to go out and wham it comes again. If it stays below a category one flooding will be our biggest worry but I am sending up petitions for those folks in Haiti who are going to really suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMM34667 Posted August 23, 2012 #219 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I'm more worried about the system behind Isaac. It'll probably end up in the Gulf by just after Labor Day like the <i>Farmer's Almanac</i> has predicted, which means it'll rain on my wedding day. :( At least we don't leave for our honeymoon cruise until 2 weeks later - hopefully nothing else will pop up! The one behind Issac is Joyce and she is should be no where near the gulf. Hoping you has sunny skies for your wedding (although they do say it is lucky if it rains on your wedding day?) (JOYCE BELOW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 23, 2012 Author #220 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The dangerous part is that you get a lull or calm and people assume it's ok to go out and wham it comes again. The "eye of the storm" is very strange when it's right over you. You can feel the pressure drop, there is almost no wind and a lot of times very clear skies. It's eerily quiet and then, just like DaDivaMom said, "WHAM". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare maxandmolly Posted August 23, 2012 #221 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The "eye of the storm" is very strange when it's rightover you. You can feel the pressure drop, there is almost no wind and a lot of times very clear skies. It's eerily quiet and then, just like DaDivaMom said, "WHAM". I remember it well. Lived in the only place where the eyes of Charlie, Frances and Jeanne all passed over. Got creepier each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 23, 2012 Author #222 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Got creepier each time. Creepy indeed. All I could think of was that scene from the movie "Twister" http://www.youtube.com/embed/uNcC5sNHUaE We got cows! :eek: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
right trip Posted August 23, 2012 #223 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I'm more worried about the system behind Isaac. It'll probably end up in the Gulf by just after Labor Day like the <i>Farmer's Almanac</i> has predicted, which means it'll rain on my wedding day. :( At least we don't leave for our honeymoon cruise until 2 weeks later - hopefully nothing else will pop up! Happy wedding day. I hope McDonough is not too hot on your big day and the tropical storms stay away during your honeymoon. I taught history at HCHS in McDonough and retired after 30 years. Life is good.:) Bobbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupilindenial Posted August 23, 2012 #224 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Lived in the only place where the eyes of Charlie, Frances and Jeanne all passed over. We must've lived in the exact same neighborhood, then! They intersected not a block from my backyard. ...counting my blessings that this storm is coming a week before I leave on the Legend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 23, 2012 Author #225 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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