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Aussie Dollar Slides More, Below US $ Value!!


TLCOhio
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On the rising Aussie dollar, it's all about the shrinking or diluted value of the U.S. dollar. Sorry for us and our wallets! Current WSJ morning rate at $.9512 for the Australian dollar. I won't get political here, but there are lots of issues and questions about ALL of these things.

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning as their lead story, they have these headlines that summarize it all: "Fed Stays the Course on Easy Money. Policy Makers Cite Sluggish Economy, Washington Gridlock in Standing Pat".

 

Here are the highlights from this story: "Seeing a more uneven economic climate than they expected and the potential for fiscal discord in Washington, Federal Reserve officials got cold feet Wednesday and decided to keep their signature easy-money program in place for the time being. The move, coming after Fed officials spent months alerting the public that they might begin to pare their $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program at the September policy meeting, marks the latest in a string of striking turnabouts from Washington policy makers that have whipsawed markets in recent days. Mr. Obama's former economic adviser, Lawrence Summers, on Sunday bowed out of consideration to run the Fed amid mounting resistance from liberal Senate Democrats. Now, the Fed says it will carry on with a program investors had nervously been anticipating for months could gradually disappear."

 

In the past months as the Australian dollar has fallen, it has been more about questions over the China economy, Aussie exports, their elections down under, etc. Now, the finger on these economic questions point "OUR" way. It looks like we'll need to dig a little deeper into our wallet for our Jan. 2014 visit to Australia than how things looked with the Aussie dollar dropped to around 89 cents. Yesterday, I was at a luncheon in Columbus where the speaker was Washington Post columnist and frequent TV commentator E. J. Dionne. He's more liberal than me, but he had some excellent insights and comments on these "battles" now going on over the economy, how to get it growing again, etc. His latest book, ‘Our Divided Political Heart’, just came out and you can read a review below from the New York Times. That Times story notes he: "has ascended to a sufficiently elevated plane of the Higher Punditry that his author’s biography no longer mentions he received a doctorate from Oxford, where he was a Rhodes scholar. He still comes across as a precocious student, bubbling with boyish charm and enthusiasm for ideas, though sometimes a bit glib and preening. His books are clever, upbeat and interesting, particularly when he examines current political concerns through the lens of history, religion and philosophy." I had a chance to sit at his table at this luncheon, chat with him before and after his speech, etc. That NY Times description does fit on his charm, personality, style. Very interesting questions on the our economy and role of government in a "market-driven" economy, but no easy, quick answers or solutions.

 

From the Melbourne Age, Sidney Morning Herald and other Fairfax newspapers in Australia today, they have this headline: "Australian dollar soars on US Fed stimulus news" with these highlights: "The Australian dollar has soared past 95 US cents, its highest level in three months, surging more than 1.5 US cents after the Federal Reserve surprised financial markets by keeping its stimulus program unchanged. The currency gained 1.5 per cent in just a few seconds, to a level not seen since mid-June. 'It clearly caught markets by surprise, even as expectations were pared back in recent weeks,' said Westpac's chief currency strategist Robert Rennie. 'The street was badly caught out by the Fed's decision. Risks for the US dollar are very clearly to the downside, and that means Aussie could push yet higher.' "

 

Full stories at:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324492604579083243936441418.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/30/books/review/our-divided-political-heart-by-e-j-dionne-jr.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-soars-on-us-fed-stimulus-news-20130919-2u0dr.html

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Did a June 7-19, 2011, Celebrity Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 142,229 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

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As posted by Terry, this increase was due to a decision in the US in a planned meeting, that had been on the cards for some time.

 

Most of the supposed smart Wall Street finance experts believed that the Fed was going to start "tightening down" against continuing the loose Fed "cheap money". Wednesday's decision was much of a surprise to avoid that expected tightening. Hard to predict or know these things for sure.

 

In checking this morning from the Wall Street Journal website, they have the Aussie dollar at $0.9428. That's a little "improvement" or "bad news", depending on your wishes/needs compared to yesterday. Lots of time between now and January to see where this "roller coast" goes before we have to pay for some ground options/costs in Australia and NZ as we do our pre-travels before the Sydney to Auckland Solstice cruise, Jan. 20-Feb. 3.

 

From the Canberra Times, Sidney Morning Herald and other Fairfax newspapers in Australia today, I see that they have this headline: "Parity still far away for dollar" with these highlights: "Currency strategists are reviewing their year-end forecasts for the Australian dollar after its renewed buoyancy following the US Federal Reserve’s surprise decision not to cut stimulus, but do not expect it to return to parity with the US dollar. The National Australia Bank’s currency strategists revised upwards their forecasts for December 2013 from 86 to 92 US cents. The higher forecasts are driven by expectations of an improving Chinese economy, the rise of some hard commodity export prices and the support for emerging markets that the Fed's decision has given, NAB currency strategist Ray Attrill said in a research note. The Australian dollar breached the 95 US cents level yesterday morning after a surprise move by the Fed to delay its tapering plans sent the US dollar tumbling. While the Australian dollar was expected to stay at elevated levels in the short term, Commonwealth Bank currency strategist Peter Dragicevich said the Fed’s announcement 'in our view just delays the inevitable'. 'It doesn't change the trend so we don't expect the Aussie to drift too much higher from current levels,' Mr Dragicevich said. He added that he did not envisage any reviewed forecasts from the CBA’s new figures would vary drastically from the bank's current year-end forecast of 92 US cents."

 

Full story at:

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/markets/currencies/parity-still-far-away-brfor-dollar-20130920-2u4q6.html

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

For details and visuals, etc., from our July 1-16, 2010, Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise experience from Copenhagen on the Silver Cloud, check out this posting. This posting is now at 118,496 views.

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

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Most of the supposed smart Wall Street finance experts believed that the Fed was going to start "tightening down" against continuing the loose Fed "cheap money".

 

Sometimes consensus builds up because agreeing is the easy option. That said, the Fed were happy to play along as well, as it's beneficial to get the market used to the idea that the stimulus can't go on forever.

 

You makes your money when your view is different from the 'common wisdom.' ;)

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All this learned stuff is over my head. I REALLY do know why the Australian $ is rising. MEME is going on a cruise around SI New Zealand with an Australian cruise company and must pay her cruise fare in full the first of December in Australian dollars. End of discussion -- this is always the way.:mad: Maybe I should get governments to pay me to come.

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All this learned stuff is over my head. I REALLY do know why the Australian $ is rising. MEME is going on a cruise around SI New Zealand with an Australian cruise company and must pay her cruise fare in full the first of December in Australian dollars. End of discussion -- this is always the way.:mad: Maybe I should get governments to pay me to come.

 

Don't hang around at home too long waiting on the governments to deliver and pay that money you'd like. Since you live near Washington, DC, you're close to part of the problem/challenge. As noted on this thread in earlier posts, lots of this whole "deal" is to do with the China economy, Aussie exports (or lack thereof), the struggling Euro economy, our American lack of fiscal discipline/focus, etc.

 

Titled: "Australian Dollar Recovery Faces Evolving Fed QE Speculation"

Here is the latest article from a decent source giving added details and background. See full details at:

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2013/09/21/Forex_Australian_Dollar_Recovery_Faces_Evolving_Fed_QE_Speculation.html

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

For details and visuals, etc., from our July 1-16, 2010, Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise experience from Copenhagen on the Silver Cloud, check out this posting. This posting is now at 118,614 views.

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

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Don't hang around at home too long waiting on the governments to deliver and pay that money you'd like. Since you live near Washington, DC, you're close to part of the problem/challenge. As noted on this thread in earlier posts, lots of this whole "deal" is to do with the China economy, Aussie exports (or lack thereof), the struggling Euro economy, our American lack of fiscal discipline/focus, etc.

 

Titled: "Australian Dollar Recovery Faces Evolving Fed QE Speculation"

Here is the latest article from a decent source giving added details and background. See full details at:

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2013/09/21/Forex_Australian_Dollar_Recovery_Faces_Evolving_Fed_QE_Speculation.html

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

For details and visuals, etc., from our July 1-16, 2010, Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise experience from Copenhagen on the Silver Cloud, check out this posting. This posting is now at 118,614 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

 

Oh me! if only being close to Washington would get someone to listen! It really is annoying to hear "You people in Washington are the problem". Last I looked, we get one vote per person just like the rest of the country. Government people are my neighbors and friends but they certainly get NO special treatment -- most are getting furloughed for one full day a week and it really hurts! Even our little church is struggling because so many of our folks don't have the money to fulfill their pledges and the food bank is closing 2 days a week because of not enough food and too many who need food. So it is not much of a joke to us here in this area. I am a retired school teacher and they don't take lessons from me or they would get things shaped up in a jiffy :D Meanwhile trying to tie economic trends to any one factor or happening is interesting but not much more use than my statement that is because I have a bill coming due in Australian $. So many people guessing and trying to make the system work for them-- mostly just a recreational activity and a way to have something to say in posts while we wait to visit or cruise wonderful places. Keep calm and carry on (but I would appreciate a drop for several days while I transfer my payment:rolleyes:)

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Oh me! if only being close to Washington would get someone to listen! It really is annoying to hear "You people in Washington are the problem". Last I looked, we get one vote per person just like the rest of the country. Government people are my neighbors and friends but they certainly get NO special treatment -- most are getting furloughed for one full day a week and it really hurts! Even our little church is struggling because so many of our folks don't have the money to fulfill their pledges and the food bank is closing 2 days a week because of not enough food and too many who need food. So it is not much of a joke to us here in this area. I am a retired school teacher and they don't take lessons from me or they would get things shaped up in a jiffy :D Meanwhile trying to tie economic trends to any one factor or happening is interesting but not much more use than my statement that is because I have a bill coming due in Australian $. So many people guessing and trying to make the system work for them-- mostly just a recreational activity and a way to have something to say in posts while we wait to visit or cruise wonderful places. Keep calm and carry on (but I would appreciate a drop for several days while I transfer my payment:rolleyes:)

Gosh, things are still not too good for many people in the US, from what you say. It seems to have been such a long five years even for us here. And we have been blessed to have been mostly spectators to the problems. Most of us saw our retirement savings plunge and that kept many of our friends working at least part-time. But the funds have generally just about come back and many people have discovered that they really still like working (my husband included, which causes problems for organising cruises!)

In the short term, the Aussie dollar moves about before the monthly Reserve Bank meeting which adjusts the interest rate. Could be worth checking the date and the expected trend before paying.

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Thanks for that tip Karenella. We too bounce around day to day and the stock market goes crazy based on a burp here and a hiccup there or even a rumor that has not even waved by the truth. But throughout history when the top of the barrel gets way way too greedy the little people rise up and try to even things out. Then a new group of rulers and rich come in and start the process all over again.

 

If people all over the world would stop and count their Blessings instead of keeping track of what someone has that is better than what you have then the world would be a happier more positive place. I'm pretty grateful that I have a nice home, enough food to have a weight problem, great kids and grandkids and several vacations planned. The world will keep spinning and I hope to enjoy it for many long years with my friends from all over the world that I have met while traveling and while on-line. Thanks Friends!

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  • 3 weeks later...

In 2008 we took Dawn Princess from San Fran to Sydney repositioning cruise. When we arrived the exchange rate had fallen to 66 cents US bought $1 Australian. My wife loaded up on Black Opals at a 1/3 discount. Then the customs people back in the US could not figure out how to convert to figure the tax and said "just go on through". It does not look like we will arrive March11th with an exchange rate like that. We will just have to pay the going prices for food and drink during our 3 night in Sydney before returning home. Terry and Mary

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In 2008 we took Dawn Princess from San Fran to Sydney repositioning cruise. When we arrived the exchange rate had fallen to 66 cents US bought $1 Australian. My wife loaded up on Black Opals at a 1/3 discount. Then the customs people back in the US could not figure out how to convert to figure the tax and said "just go on through". It does not look like we will arrive March11th with an exchange rate like that. We will just have to pay the going prices for food and drink during our 3 night in Sydney before returning home. Terry and Mary

 

By March next year $1 AUD should buy $0.88 USD. Unless the US defaults on its debts next week and then $1 AUD might buy $1.25 USD...

 

...not that that will help anyone as the world slips into a depression akin to the 30s!

 

Let's hope it doesn't come to that. I must say that the high Aussie Dollar has been a holiday dream for me in recent years.

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  • 1 month later...
By March next year $1 AUD should buy $0.88 USD. Unless the US defaults on its debts next week and then $1 AUD might buy $1.25 USD.....not that that will help anyone as the world slips into a depression akin to the 30s! Let's hope it doesn't come to that. I must say that the high Aussie Dollar has been a holiday dream for me in recent years.

 

As our Jan. 20-Feb. 3, Sydney to Auckland cruise on the Celebrity Solstice gets closer, I did an update on our roll call, including that the Wall Street Journal has the Aussie dollar at $0.9027 this morning.

 

From the respected Reuters newswire two hours ago this morning, they have this headline: "Dollar gains, Aussie at low" with these highlights: "The dollar rose against the yen and the euro on Wednesday as expectations grew that key economic data from the United States this week could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to exit its bond-buying program. The euro fell 0.1 against the dollar to $1.3580. The Australian dollar fell to a three-month low as investors pared back riskier bets and after Australia's GDP growth came in below market expectations. Markets are eyeing U.S. GDP data on Thursday and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which investors will study for clues about when the Fed will taper its monetary stimulus. Its next policy meeting is on December 17-18. Many investors and analysts expect the Fed to begin reducing stimulus at its March meeting, so an upbeat employment report would increase speculation that tapering could come earlier. 'This week is maybe the most important week for the dollar now for the year,' said Manuel Oliveri, currency strategist at Credit Agricole. Hedge funds sold the Australian dollar after data showed 0.6 percent growth in GDP in the third quarter, below analysts' median forecast of 0.8 percent. That news came just a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate steady at a record low of 2.5 percent, although it reiterated that the local currency remained 'uncomfortably high', and expectations have now grown that it could act at its next meeting. The Aussie dropped 1.1 percent to $0.9036, breaking through the key support level of $0.9050/55. A sustained break could see a retracement all the way to this year's low of $0.8848. Hedge funds have been negative on the Aussie for some time. CQS founder Michael Hintze, whose firms runs around $12 billion, told Reuters last month that he was short the Australian dollar, citing the 'very, very clear' wish of central bank governor Glenn Stevens for it to weaken."

 

Interesting background on how and why both developments in the U.S. and Australia affect these currency values.

 

Full story at:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/04/us-markets-forex-idUSBRE9AH0UU20131204

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Did a June 7-19, 2011, Celebrity Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 150,894 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

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  • 4 weeks later...

Getting much closer. Paid for our Kangaroo Island tour/stay at an 88.45 cents rate about two weeks ago. Getting a little Aussie currency to have have when we land. Will get more from ATM's there in Australia. Rate at 88.88 cents this morning. Just a little over a week till we depart on Jan. 9. Do Hawaii two-night stop, then arrive in Brisbane/Cairns on Jan. 12.

 

From the Brisbane Times, Sidney Morning Herald and other Fairfax newspapers in Australia today, they have this headline: "Aussie dollar headed for US80¢ with RBA to cut rates again, says BlackRock" with these highlights: "The world’s biggest money manager BlackRock sees Australia’s dollar falling 10 per cent as disappointing economic growth forces the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its benchmark rate to as low as 2 per cent. The Aussie will drop toward US80¢ from US88.85¢ last week, said Stephen Miller, a money manager in Sydney at BlackRock, which oversees $US4.1 trillion worldwide. The Reserve Bank of Australia may lower its cash target from an already record low 2.5 per cent in April. BlackRock joins Pacific Investment Management in predicting a weaker currency and sluggish growth for Australia as the economy struggles to adjust to a drop in mining investment. 'The Aussie will go lower,' said Miller. 'Once it gets to 80 cents, you start thinking the Aussie is worth a look from the long side, but I wouldn’t be trying to trade it from the long side before US80¢.' The Australian dollar has fallen about 15 per cent this year as the RBA has cut its benchmark by 50 basis points and the US central bank announced a dialing back of monetary stimulus. For Miller, a fair value for the Australian dollar is lower than US85¢ because he is 'less sanguine' on the economy than the RBA."

 

Full story at:

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/markets/currencies/aussie-dollar-headed-for-us80-with-rba-to-cut-rates-again-says-blackrock-20131230-302fb.html

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Did a June 7-19, 2011, Celebrity Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 156,712 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

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