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El Cheapo Cruises Thread

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amatuercruiser

amatuercruiser

Posted
Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

A quick loss of about US$400 if you bought yesterday.

Yes  a loss like that (400) in a single trading day  is equivalent to  one Shareholder 14 day ($250) OBC and one shareholder 10 day (approx  $100) OBC.

 

Your effectively 2 cruises of OBC down before you start.

 

I think the advice ..Only buy Cruise line  shares to get OBC if you can afford to loose.  Needs to be RINGING in peoples ears.

 

But this is not normal times. This Virus level of volatility on the stock market  is exceptional. I think EVENTUALLY the Cruise industry share price will bottom,  pricing in a 3month industry decline..possibly 6 month Industry decline. Or possibly a 12 month cruise industry decline. Any thing longer the Cruise ships themselves will become STRANDED assets.

 

The other issue with Carnival stock is it pays a approx 5% dividend. I think that is over for the next few years.

 

Edited by amatuercruiser
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The_Big_M

The_Big_M

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, wanderingoz said:

As has been mentioned previously, only a loss if you sell today.

 

Could be a bigger loss if you sell tomorrow.

 

Essentially, people have differing reasons for wanting to buy it, and may not want to hold it forever. But it may not recover back to profitable levels - I think it took 8 years to recover its peak the last time it went down a lot.

 

If you're just buying for OBC, but the actual value has fallen more than the OBC you get, what is the point? It's actually adding hassle to your life/financial management, and the tax complications are significant.

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amatuercruiser

amatuercruiser

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

 

 

 

 

 

If you're just buying for OBC, but the actual value has fallen more than the OBC you get, what is the point? It's actually adding hassle to your life/financial management, and the tax complications are significant.

I agree. The volatility of a $3900 us investment. versus a $100 (7day) Share holder benefit OBC is questionable. In the past possibly made sense but post Coronavirus correction and possible Cruise ship stigmatisation the financial benefit and unceratinty is very high.

 

My plan is possibly in the future buy 100 share in Carnival and get the OBC as a benefit on Princess HAL, Cunard etc on cruises around Australia.. If it make financial sense if not sell the shares. As noted if the stock gets low enough Carnival may no longer offer the share holder OBC benefit.

Edited by amatuercruiser
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LittleFish1976

LittleFish1976

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, amatuercruiser said:

I agree. The volatility of a $3900 us investment. versus a $100 (7day) Share holder benefit OBC is questionable. In the past possibly made sense but post Coronavirus correction and possible Cruise ship stigmatisation the financial benefit and unceratinty is very high.

 

My plan is possibly in the future buy 100 share in Carnival and get the OBC as a benefit on Princess HAL, Cunard etc on cruises around Australia.. If it make financial sense if not sell the shares. As noted if the stock gets low enough Carnival may no longer offer the share holder OBC benefit.

 

But the shareholder benefits actually support the price of the stock. If they did away with the OBC shareholder benefit it would be a less attractive proposition and so less people would buy it and the price would drop.

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LittleFish1976

LittleFish1976

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

But only a loss if you sold again today, as I said, only do it if it is to be a long term investment.

 

Thanks to your help, MicCanberra and RosieCanberra, with setting up the ANZ platform and advice on all the stuff, I bought mine a few days ago. Thanks for that - I don't care what the fluctuations are - the underlying value is there as well as the benefits.

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MicCanberra Holiday Sharing Rare

MicCanberra

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

 

Could be a bigger loss if you sell tomorrow.

 

Essentially, people have differing reasons for wanting to buy it, and may not want to hold it forever. But it may not recover back to profitable levels - I think it took 8 years to recover its peak the last time it went down a lot.

 

If you're just buying for OBC, but the actual value has fallen more than the OBC you get, what is the point? It's actually adding hassle to your life/financial management, and the tax complications are significant.

If people are spending $6000 AUD on a short term investment, so they can get $250 OBC then something isn't right.

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MicCanberra Holiday Sharing Rare

MicCanberra

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, LittleFish1976 said:

 

Thanks to your help, MicCanberra and RosieCanberra, with setting up the ANZ platform and advice on all the stuff, I bought mine a few days ago. Thanks for that - I don't care what the fluctuations are - the underlying value is there as well as the benefits.

I am sure the price will be back up past $45 before the year is out, even if it does drop further first, not that it matters, as we do not plan to sell for at least another ten years. 

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amatuercruiser

amatuercruiser

Posted
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, MicCanberra said:

I am sure the price will be back up past $45 before the year is out, even if it does drop further first, not that it matters, as we do not plan to sell for at least another ten years. 

 

Ok based on 10 years share ownership Back Of envelope calculation.

 

Outlay Buy 100 Carnival stock $4000 US $6000 Aus

 

Assume 10 Year Ownership

 

Typical Carnival share price appreciation over 10 years isnt much so lets say. $0 capital appreciation and gain. After 10 years you get just $4000 back

 

Shareholder On Board Credit benefit over 10 years

Assume three to four  14 day cruises over 10 years

=3.5 X $250 OBC =$875 x 10= $8750

 

Carnival Shareholder annual Dividend

 

10 years at $2 per share = $200 US x 10 years = $2000 US

 

Carnival Share Outlay $4000

 

Dividend Return $2000

OBC Benefit 10 years $8750

 

Assuming shares stay at same price you are $10,750 better off.

 

 

 

 

Edited by amatuercruiser
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The_Big_M

The_Big_M

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, LittleFish1976 said:

 

But the shareholder benefits actually support the price of the stock. If they did away with the OBC shareholder benefit it would be a less attractive proposition and so less people would buy it and the price would drop.

 

Not really. The number of personal shareholders holding minimal amounts compared to institutional and large cap holders is miniscule.

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The_Big_M

The_Big_M

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MicCanberra said:

If people are spending $6000 AUD on a short term investment, so they can get $250 OBC then something isn't right.

 

Even long term, any investment should be weighed up for its purpose, and value, not just bought because of a side benefit when there is a much larger amount at stake.

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Hazydavo

Hazydavo

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, amatuercruiser said:

I think possibly the reason the forum  strayed was the question..

 

Would I get the cheap Cruise fair AND get the shareholder on board credit?

 

 

Yep, and do we reckon that’s been answered now?

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