Carnival Corp. Four New Ships

[GUT2407]

The more I cruise, the more I realize we don't like large ships. I can't bring myself to go on RCI's big ones even. Wouldn't even consider Carnival ones.

 

 

I wonder if the lines will ever realise how many feel the same way.

 

Or is t just that they can fill enough of the mega ships that they need not worry.

[Astro Flyer]

I wonder if the lines will ever realise how many feel the same way.

 

Or is t just that they can fill enough of the mega ships that they need not worry.

 

They keep filling larger ships despite some passengers dissatisfaction & eventually those who want to sail on smaller ships will probably have to sail on premium (Oceania & Azamara) or on luxury (Crystal, Silversea, etc.) cruise lines.

[MicCanberra]

They keep filling larger ships despite some passengers dissatisfaction & eventually those who want to sail on smaller ships will probably have to sail on premium (Oceania & Azamara) or on luxury (Crystal, Silversea, etc.) cruise lines.

 

Build them and they will come, price may be the big driver on what cruise people may want to do.

[Astro Flyer]

Build them and they will come, price may be the big driver on what cruise people may want to do.

 

That seems to be the trend to keep the price more affordable to attract more younger passengers which is very important for cruise lines to remain profitable after my older generation is no longer cruising,

[Cuizer2]

I wonder if the lines will ever realise how many feel the same way.

 

Or is t just that they can fill enough of the mega ships that they need not worry.

 

Like cars and airplanes, the definition of small, medium, large and mega keep evolving.

 

The original supersized ship sank on its maiden voyage in 1912. It was 52,000 tons. The original "mega" ship was the Sovereign of the Sea (the first ship to be called mega, just as the 747 was the first plane to be called jumbo). The Sovereign of the Seas is 73,000 tones. Now 73,000 tons is mid sized.

 

Still, only about 1/2 the ships currently exceed 100,000 tons. So the "smaller" ship are still out there. But in ten years it may be difficult to find a ship that is under 100,000 tons.

 

Who knows, in 50 years it might be easier to bring the islands to the ship.

[GUT2407]

Like cars and airplanes, the definition of small, medium, large and mega keep evolving.

 

The original supersized ship sank on its maiden voyage in 1912. It was 52,000 tons. The original "mega" ship was the Sovereign of the Sea (the first ship to be called mega, just as the 747 was the first plane to be called jumbo). The Sovereign of the Seas is 73,000 tones. Now 73,000 tons is mid sized.

 

Still, only about 1/2 the ships currently exceed 100,000 tons. So the "smaller" ship are still out there. But in ten years it may be difficult to find a ship that is under 100,000 tons.

 

Who knows, in 50 years it might be easier to bring the islands to the ship.

 

The way they're gong you might be right.

[GUT2407]

That seems to be the trend to keep the price more affordable to attract more younger passengers which is very important for cruise lines to remain profitable after my older generation is no longer cruising,

 

 

True.

 

Though it not just older generation that enjoy smaller ships.

[MicCanberra]

That seems to be the trend to keep the price more affordable to attract more younger passengers which is very important for cruise lines to remain profitable after my older generation is no longer cruising,

 

Price doesn't just attract the younger passengers but I get your point, they need to keep the market growing and that means attracting people who will have a lifetime (40-50 years) of cruises ahead of them.:D

[MicCanberra]

 

Who knows, in 50 years it might be easier to bring the islands to the ship.

 

These ships are just about floating islands now.

[piper28]

I wonder if the lines will ever realise how many feel the same way.

 

Or is t just that they can fill enough of the mega ships that they need not worry.

 

I can kinda understand the rationale behind why things are moving this way. And part of the key is that they're indeed filling these larger ships. The issue becomes even if the small ships can remain profitable, the size of the profit compared to the big ships is pretty insignificant. They can make the same profit that a year's worth of small ship sailing makes in a fraction of the time with the larger ships.

 

Logistics wise I'm sure it's also probably a lot easier for a line to not have ships that range from 600 to 6000 passengers in the same line. There's a pretty significant experience difference between them too, which is something that can catch the general public off-guard (might be hard for people on here to believe that, but believe me, the average person that doesn't know much about cruising and sees ads of the bigger ships and their amenities would really be in for a shock on a small ship - heck, I've run into some of these people before).

 

I do think it might have been interesting if they'd taken the small ships and maybe the smaller ships from HAL and spun it off into a line with similar levels of amenities to Princess or HAL. But my guess is that there's 2 things that would argue against that: a) they probably figure it would compete too much with the seaborne line, and b) I know at one point Azamera wasn't making a profit with this line of thinking, no idea if it actually is today, or if RCL just thinks it's worth running the line for the experience even if it's not making much/any money. I actually figured they'd probably dump the line, given that they haven't I'm guessing that they probably have started to be profitable. (I can't find anywhere where they break the numbers down by line, so can't confirm anything.)

[MicCanberra]

Haven't been on anything bigger than 3,800 pax as yet but as long as it doesn't feel crowded all the time (obviously it will from time to time), I am sure it will be fine no matter how big they become. The demographics on the ships tend to have such a wide range of cruise interests that the cruise ships can cater for everyone.:D

[SoCal Cruiser78]

Like the RCI big ships, these four new CCL Corp ships will have a limited number of ports they can go into. Their itineraries may get very boring for repeat passengers.

 

Or they will need LOTS of tenders :eek:.

[SoCal Cruiser78]

I wonder if that means they can go into areas like the Antarctic due to the cleaner nature of the fuel.

 

Good question. I'm guessing they won't need to switch to cleaner fuel when they get near California the way they do now.

Edited June 17, 2015 by SoCal Cruiser78

[caribill]

Haven't been on anything bigger than 3,800 pax as yet but as long as it doesn't feel crowded all the time (obviously it will from time to time), I am sure it will be fine no matter how big they become.

 

That may be fine when the ship is at sea.

 

When in port, it is that many more passengers to crowd the port and that many more to be on a line to get back onto the ship.

[MicCanberra]

That may be fine when the ship is at sea.

 

When in port, it is that many more passengers to crowd the port and that many more to be on a line to get back onto the ship.

 

That is what I meant from the time to time. If they have itineraries where people are embarking at multiple ports (like in the Med) that may alleviate some of the issues.

[Grego]

It will be very interesting to see the evolution of cruise ship sizing. We are seeing some of it now with larger ships with shorter itineraries cruising the Caribbean. Build a big ship with a lot of fun stuff and good weather and they will come.

I'm sure there will be some crossover as to how many ships are too many compared to the population of potential cruisers. I'm not sure there are very many empty berths during the peak season - check the pricing and that reflects the supply/demand component.

What troubles me is that with building larger and larger vessels, there are few ports that accommodate one let alone many in port at one time. This means some of the more "exotic" ports of call won't be visited by the big ships and if those larger ships are replacing smaller ships that were going into these smaller ports the economy there will suffer.

Bean counters at the various lines are doing the numbers crunch analysis to see if bigger, more passengers, increased revenue aboard the ship, decreased fare pricing due to competition, cost of operation per passenger reduction and/or reduced amenities, etc. provides the right vessels for the right venue.

Stay tuned......

[Roses2]

Those who believe Carnival Corporation can make as much profit from small ships as large ships miss a basic element of economics: economy of scale.

 

Other than build cost, fuel, insurance, and the increase in staffing, most of the other costs remain the same or close to the same regardless of the size of the ship. No matter how you compute, 1 ship carrying 6000 passengers will yield a much higher profit margin than 10 ships carrying 600.

 

There is a niche market for small ships and they will continue to sail and be a part of the cruise industry. Carnival is launching Fathom particularly to a specialized niche market. The R ships continue to sail on various lines (including Princess). Seaborne and other "luxury' lines probably never will sail 6000 passenger ships.

 

Based on the life cycle of Carnival cruise ships, most of the current fleet will be around for quite a while. That will continue to provide a wide range of choice of size.

 

However, it is doubtful that any of the major cruise lines will build new small ships. Over time, each of the major main cruise corporations will move to larger capacity ships..

[hubofhockey]

We are doing are first small ship cruise on Azamara next summer. It really doesn't have as much to do with the size of the ship as it does with the decline in product that the mass market lines are providing. As others have suggested, the new larger ships are already limited as to ports they can include on their itinerary. There is a growing market for smaller ship cruising and even a new line in Viking Ocean with a few new ships. Azamara is refurbishing its ships and may add more and so is Oceania. It's really not a bad time for smaller ship cruising. We just have to pay a little more, but bargains are out there if you look hard enough.

[bdjam]

However, it is doubtful that any of the major cruise lines will build new small ships. Over time, each of the major main cruise corporations will move to larger capacity ships..

 

This isn't written in stone. It won't happen if people don't buy the cruises on these ships. There's a lot of hand wringing about the bigger ships yet people who are worried go ahead and buy cruises on them. The larger ships only achieve economies of scale if they are filled with passengers. And the quality of the experience is bound to degrade. That may be fine for some, but just giving in to the trend doesn't help dissuade the cruise lines from building big.

[MicCanberra]

This isn't written in stone. It won't happen if people don't buy the cruises on these ships. There's a lot of hand wringing about the bigger ships yet people who are worried go ahead and buy cruises on them. The larger ships only achieve economies of scale if they are filled with passengers. And the quality of the experience is bound to degrade. That may be fine for some, but just giving in to the trend doesn't help dissuade the cruise lines from building big.

 

I am not convinced, the large ships have been around for a number of years and if they were not filling the ships due to a degradation in experience or making profits for them as expected (or better), they wouldn't keep building them.

[caribill]

I am not convinced, the large ships have been around for a number of years and if they were not filling the ships due to a degradation in experience or making profits for them as expected (or better), they wouldn't keep building them.

 

 

Some people will go on the larger ships for the ship experience, not for the ports.

 

RCI is able to still command premium pricing for the Displacement of the Sea and the Behemoth of the Sea. Pricing for those two ships is higher than for Princess' newest ships.

 

As an example (dates picked at random) current pricing:

 

November 7, 2015 7-day cruise from Port Everglades on the Oasis of the Sea:

Inside from $1055

Balcony from $1046 (yes, less than inside)

 

 

November 8, 2015 7-day cruise from Port Everglades on the Regal Princess:

Inside from $649

Balcony from $919

[MicCanberra]

Yes, I feel a sense of de Ja vou, The prices indicate just what people will pay to get onto the newer larger ships.

[SoCal Cruiser78]

Yes, I feel a sense of de Ja vou, The prices indicate just what people will pay to get onto the newer larger ships.

 

I would be interested in knowing how many cruises monster ship passengers have under their belts vs. small and midsize ship pax. I understand the big money is made with first-time cruisers who tend to spend more lavishly than repeat passengers who have "been there and done that" before.

 

I'm guessing the newbies tend to think that newer-and-bigger is better, hence the higher prices those ships command with their fares.

[MicCanberra]

I would be interested in knowing how many cruises monster ship passengers have under their belts vs. small and midsize ship pax. I understand the big money is made with first-time cruisers who tend to spend more lavishly than repeat passengers who have "been there and done that" before.

 

I'm guessing the newbies tend to think that newer-and-bigger is better, hence the higher prices those ships command with their fares.

 

You may well be right. I have just booked a cruise on the Ovation of the Seas, so I will get a taste of one of these large ships next year.:D

[Grego]

I would be interested in knowing how many cruises monster ship passengers have under their belts vs. small and midsize ship pax. I understand the big money is made with first-time cruisers who tend to spend more lavishly than repeat passengers who have "been there and done that" before.

 

I'm guessing the newbies tend to think that newer-and-bigger is better, hence the higher prices those ships command with their fares.

 

That might be it or the new "younger crowd" might be going for the fun of it all with all the newest attractions and not really that concerned about taking a cruise for the escape and relaxation.