Carnival Stock Down

[BrianI]

The dividend is currently 2.49% which is not brilliant by any means, but on par with the best UK interest rates. For 100 shares it is around £150-160 a year depending on exchange rates, at the current dividend of $1.60/share.

The annual dividend has increased to $2 per share over the last year.

Brian

[yorkshirephil]

The annual dividend has increased to $2 per share over the last year.

Brian

 

Better still, my figures are from the 2017 key fundamentals.

[Ilovemygarden]

Many thanks to all of you who replied. Looks like it might still be worthwhile to buy 100.

[Ranchi]

Dividends vary see the performance over the last 10 years.

https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/travel-and-leisure/carnival/dividends

Generally they are quite good but see 2009.

[Harry Peterson]

Thanks for all the information. A very good bet, I think, at a time when markets have fallen, but too much downside risk (for me at any rate) when markets are high, as they are now.

 

I'll be waiting for a suitable buying opportunity.

[davecttr]

Many thanks to all of you who replied. Looks like it might still be worthwhile to buy 100.

 

The more Carnival Corp cruises you do the better investment purchasing those 100 shares is. In some years I was getting over 20% net return on my 100. I bought the shares for the shareholder benefit, not the share dividends.

[Harry Peterson]

The more Carnival Corp cruises you do the better investment purchasing those 100 shares is. In some years I was getting over 20% net return on my 100. I bought the shares for the shareholder benefit, not the share dividends.

 

I'd be doing the same, but the potential loss on the value of the shares, particularly if bought when prices are very high, as they are now, can outweigh the value of the benefits received by a very large figure indeed, as I learned to my cost once when the value of shares in a hotel company crashed through the floor.

 

If share prices drop even by 30% (entirely feasible) you've lost around £1500.

[BrianI]

The share price does change quite a bit. The year high is £51.15 and the year low is £42.10. £45.30 right now

Brian

[Harry Peterson]

And in August 2014 it fell as low as £20.90 - now that would have been a good time to buy, but very easy to say with the benefit of hindsight, and most people would probably have been expecting it to fall still further.

 

100 shares bought now would be worth £2400 less if it fell to that level again, which is entirely possible - and that makes the dividends and OBC very small beer indeed.

[majortom10]

Having bought my shares in 2011 and paid not much over £20 per share they have been excellent investment and even though a little volatile recently cannot ever see them ever going as low as £20 again. We usually do 3 cruises a year so with dividends and OBC of $750 has been well worth the money and would advise anyone who does more than 1 cruise a year and look at doing cruises for a few years I would buy now and not worry about short term movements.

[NoFlyGuy]

Agree with majortom10.

 

We are new to P&O cruises (Jan 16) and with the recent volatility are showing a capital loss on the shares we bought- only relevant if you sell and take the loss.

 

We'll hang on to ours and take the dividends and extra OBC for as long as we keep booking P&O cruises.

 

Slight worries concerning over capacity given the number of cruise ships on order but Carnival plc are a definite hold for me.

[Harry Peterson]

I’ll wait until they drop to around the £30 mark and consider buying at that point. Far too much downside risk for my liking at today’s price.

[majortom10]

I’ll wait until they drop to around the £30 mark and consider buying at that point. Far too much downside risk for my liking at today’s price.

 

Fear you will be waiting a long time and missing out on free £150 or $250 for a 14nt cruise for I cannot see Carnival hitting $30 a share for a long time if at all. They were over $50+ and think recent falls are a lot to do with cost of fuel and US problems with Iran but think it will bottom out a lot higher than $30.

[BrianI]

I bought my shares in 2008 for £21. The following year they dropped to £10.75. They then had a steady rise to the low £20's in 2015 and then started a rapid rise to the current price. See chart below for the last 15 years.

https://www.share.com/investments/shares/3054/carnival-plc-uk-share-price#charts

 

Brian

[Harry Peterson]

Fear you will be waiting a long time and missing out on free £150 or $250 for a 14nt cruise for I cannot see Carnival hitting $30 a share for a long time if at all. They were over $50+ and think recent falls are a lot to do with cost of fuel and US problems with Iran but think it will bottom out a lot higher than $30.

 

I take your point entirely, and I'd be looking at £120 for 2019 and £300 for 2020.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree about the prospects for this stock, but my pessimism relates more to the whole market than just this stock. The £120 for 2019 would be covered by just a 2.7% fall in the share price, and I'm working on the basis of a correction of at least 20%.

 

As for the £300 in 2020, I've plenty of time..........

 

Allowing investment decisions to be based on shareholder discounts is not a game I'm willing to play (though having said that my Barratt Developments shares have been a stunning success!).

[NoFlyGuy]

Markets rise and markets fall. Within that generalisation individual shares buck the trend, either up or down.

 

At the moment shares in general are in a 'risk off' phase - Many FTSE 100 shares, Carnival included, are more affected by global concerns than local issues like Brexit as they are a global brand. It's the mid 250 index that reflects sentiment with the prospects of the UK in general.

 

Whilst I would rather be looking at a paper gain than a paper loss on Carnival, I wont be selling. What will the price be 5 years down the line? Who knows - If I did I would be laying out on my own private yacht!

 

Whilst I wait I'll bank the underlying yield of circa 2.7% plus OBC.

[majortom10]

I take your point entirely, and I'd be looking at £120 for 2019 and £300 for 2020.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree about the prospects for this stock, but my pessimism relates more to the whole market than just this stock. The £120 for 2019 would be covered by just a 2.7% fall in the share price, and I'm working on the basis of a correction of at least 20%.

 

As for the £300 in 2020, I've plenty of time..........

 

Allowing investment decisions to be based on shareholder discounts is not a game I'm willing to play (though having said that my Barratt Developments shares have been a stunning success!).

 

Sorry but cannot see a stock market crash, but I am no expert, that would take the whole stock market lower that would mean all shares including Carnival shares would crash over 30%. Markets crashed after the Brexit referendum but very soon rose again within days and cannot see anything happening like that again in the near future. Also with the ever increasing number of people cruising and some ships being built to tap into the Far Eastern market I am sure Carnival and other companies would not be building cruise ships if they didnt think they could fill them.

[Harry Peterson]

On 10/9/2018 at 11:59 AM, majortom10 said:

 

Sorry but cannot see a stock market crash, but I am no expert, that would take the whole stock market lower that would mean all shares including Carnival shares would crash over 30%. Markets crashed after the Brexit referendum but very soon rose again within days and cannot see anything happening like that again in the near future. Also with the ever increasing number of people cruising and some ships being built to tap into the Far Eastern market I am sure Carnival and other companies would not be building cruise ships if they didnt think they could fill them.

Well, they've already fallen by  more than 15% in the last month, with no sign of any pickup in Carnival or the market generally.  I think there's a very real prospect of a considerable further fall and I'm expecting them to hit around £30 - possibly even lower.

 

£50 a month or so ago, less than £42 now - that's an £800 loss on the minimum shareholding for the OBC!  I'll continue to sit it out to wait for a buying opportunity.  Plenty of time before the next cruise.  

[ZZRLAD]

37 minutes ago, docco said:

Well, they've already fallen by  more than 15% in the last month, with no sign of any pickup in Carnival or the market generally.  I think there's a very real prospect of a considerable further fall and I'm expecting them to hit around £30 - possibly even lower.

 

£50 a month or so ago, less than £42 now - that's an £800 loss on the minimum shareholding for the OBC!  I'll continue to sit it out to wait for a buying opportunity.  Plenty of time before the next cruise.  

That’s the problem with the stock market. Far better to take the medium to long term view. In which case history shows that it always increases. Sit back and forget about their value for at least  5 years and you should be in profit. 

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, ZZRLAD said:

That’s the problem with the stock market. Far better to take the medium to long term view. In which case history shows that it always increases. Sit back and forget about their value for at least  5 years and you should be in profit. 

Agreed trying to second guess the market is akin to gambling.

[Harry Peterson]

2 hours ago, ZZRLAD said:

That’s the problem with the stock market. Far better to take the medium to long term view. In which case history shows that it always increases. Sit back and forget about their value for at least  5 years and you should be in profit. 

 

9 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Agreed trying to second guess the market is akin to gambling.

 

Sadly, recent history shows that the old five year rule no longer works, though I agree that the short term view isn't the best.  It all depends, fairly obviously, on the purchase and sale points - and I take the view (and it is only a view) that now's not the time to purchase.  And any stock market investment is essentially a gamble - but getting the timing right can make it less of a gamble.

[smj777]

The stockbroker I use is giving a 'BUY' to carnival at the moment. Shares are down due to increase in price of oil (paid for in $) and the weakness of the £ against the $. Oil prices are expected to fall soon, so we may see an upturn.

[majortom10]

On 10/24/2018 at 11:54 AM, docco said:

Well, they've already fallen by  more than 15% in the last month, with no sign of any pickup in Carnival or the market generally.  I think there's a very real prospect of a considerable further fall and I'm expecting them to hit around £30 - possibly even lower.

 

£50 a month or so ago, less than £42 now - that's an £800 loss on the minimum shareholding for the OBC!  I'll continue to sit it out to wait for a buying opportunity.  Plenty of time before the next cruise.  

Sorry mate but October is known for share volatility every year and there is not a chance of Carnival shares hitting £30 never mind lower you will be waiting a long time and losing $250 OBC and share dividends while you wait for something that will never happen.

[terrierjohn]

14 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

Sorry mate but October is known for share volatility every year and there is not a chance of Carnival shares hitting £30 never mind lower you will be waiting a long time and losing $250 OBC and share dividends while you wait for something that will never happen.

Agree with that sentiment, I think they may now have bottomed out, but you could hang on and hope they go below £40, but that's a real long shot.

[terrierjohn]

On 10/24/2018 at 10:47 PM, docco said:

 

 

Sadly, recent history shows that the old five year rule no longer works, though I agree that the short term view isn't the best.  It all depends, fairly obviously, on the purchase and sale points - and I take the view (and it is only a view) that now's not the time to purchase.  And any stock market investment is essentially a gamble - but getting the timing right can make it less of a gamble.

Looks as though you might have missed the boat on Carnival shares, they have increased by 4.5% in the last 2 days, not looking like they will breach £40, never mind £30.