Last minute vs. Move up...some insight

[Bruin Steve]

I am cruising on Millennium December 22--basically, coming up in just 10 days (figuring in the International Date Line)...booked it quite a long time ago.  Trying to save a little on this one, we took an Ocean View cabin--3112--the most midship of the old Conference Center cabins--the one with slightly more square footage than standard and with the very large window.

 

Several weeks ago now, Celebrity sent me one of those "Move Up" offers.  I submitted a bid for a Veranda...and never heard from them...at least as of yet...neither yes nor no.

 

Checking the Celebrity site today, they are still selling cabins on this cruise...and they've dropped the prices...appears they have a scant few left...maybe even just one suite left...but they have guarantee prices listed for Inside, OV and Veranda.

 

The rate for a veranda guarantee, including fees and taxes and with zero perks, for two, would come out to $4445.

Curiously enough, if you took what I am currently booked in the OV for and decreased it by the gratuities (one of my perks) and added my bid on the Move Up, my new price would come to $4823--but with the beverage package.  Realizing that the beverage package, no matter what they market it for, really doesn't cost Celebrity near that $200 pp, one would think the rates are fairly even.  So why aren't they just accepting my Move Up bid?

 

(Just a note:  I really don't care if I move up here--I like my current cabin location, probably won't use the balcony that much anyway...and I sort of resigned myself to living with an OV on this one).

 

Okay, here's my thought:  Celebrity solicits those Move Up bids...and keeps enough of them in hand until the bitter end that they know they can squeeze out those few extra dollars if they have to.  But, rather than start accepting them, they will keep marketing guarantee rates...because a new full fare--even at fire sale rates--fills more cabins and gets them more money than just accepting these bids.  After all, they already have my money.  When the time comes that they can't sell any more cabins, they will see what they have left--after the fire sale...and, if any, they will then start accepting move up bids.  Assuming they have only that one suite left...and they are holding top bids at every level from people who have bid $500 per cabin (arbitrary number to make the math easy), they will "move up" one booking from a Sky Suite to that suite, another from an Aqua to the now-available Sky Suite, a third from a Concierge to Aqua, a fourth from Veranda to Concierge, a fifth from an OV to a Veranda, and a sixth from an Inside to an OV.  They will make an additional $3000 ($500 time six) and end up with one open inside cabin--which they can probably give a way to an employee on standby.  Until forced to, they will try and fire sale that Suite for maybe half of what it would otherwise sell for (Actually, they will place the public price at a bargain--85-90% of prior price, while offering hidden special fares at a much lower price).  If it sells, they make that much more.  Even if they sell a Veranda Guarantee, that makes them $4445--more than the $3000--and they could still accept Move Up bids for levels above that.  If not, that's when they finally get to all of that jockeying around under the Move Up process.

 

So, basically, don't be surprised when Celebrity doesn't give you an immediate answer on your Move Up bid.  And don't be surprised when they start dropping last minute prices to levels close to what you had bid anyway.  Those Move Up bids are really just cards they are keeping to help them control the marketing and squeeze out a few dollars AFTER their other options are gone.

 

Another note:  I am also NOT thinking that my Move Up bid is the highest in the deck.  My thought is that they really don't know how many cabins they will have left at the cut-off.  People cancel for various reasons up until the last minute...so they are likely holding several Move Up bids at every level pending the final numbers.  IOW, I am not counting on moving up...And I don't even think Celebrity wants me calling them and accepting that $4445 rate--it does them no good to move me up into a higher guarantee and leaving them with an open OV...they are still hoping for last minute new money...

Edited December 11, 2018 by Bruin Steve

[mason525]

Bruin Steve,

Thanks for your well reasoned post.You've given me great advise over the years (and saved me a lot of $$). I have elite plus status and have never been able to participate in Move UP. Any thoughts on how to negotiate with Celebrity about having paid more than the low last minute rates, to get a higher level cabin. Right now, they want the total increment cost for 3pp although I think it's more likely that they could only fill it with 2pp.

Thanks for your wise counsel.

[jaspersmommy]

I would be really interested in knowing how long most people have waited for a response from Celebrity to their Move Up offers.

[jagoffee]

Bruin Steve,

I am not sure you should deduct the gratuities from your analysis.  If you win a Move Up bid, you get to keep all the perks that came with your original booking.  (You also only get the CC points for your original booking.)

 

Since Celebrity is selling the cabin that you are bidding for and the cabin you would give up without any perks, Celebrity would make more money selling the cabins as GTY to other people. They will assume the people in the cabins will spend more money on board without the perks.

 

You have good choices:

 

1.  Keep you Move Up bid and hope you get a better cabin at a slightly higher price, keep your perks, and get your original CC earning points. Your atA is not involved in this transaction.

2.  Pay more money (still less than your original cost plus move up offer), give up your perks (unless they are TA perks), and earn more points for your cruise.  The TA is involved in the transaction.

3.  Stay with what you have.

 

If your Move Up bid is not accepted, you will receive an email telling you about 3 days before the cruise.  You can remove or change your bid anytime before it is accepted.

 

Mason525,  just in case you did not know.  You can go on the Celebrity website to see if any Move Bids are being accepted.  You do not have to get an email.  I would not bother checking until 30 days before your cruise.

 

Good luck to you both.

Edited December 11, 2018 by jagoffee

[PROCRUISE]

For what its worth - was in #3122 (if I remember correctly) on Millennium for S.E. Asia cruise and loved the cabin and location and very large circular window. Enjoy your cruise!

[Bruin Steve]

45 minutes ago, jagoffee said:

Bruin Steve,

I am not sure you should deduct the gratuities from your analysis.  If you win a Move Up bid, you get to keep all the perks that came with your original booking.  (You also only get the CC points for your original booking.)

I subracted the gratuities for the purpose of comparing the rate with just re-booking outside of the Move Up thing.  And, at least for me, the "points" are completely irrelevant...I am well into "Elite Plus"...and will likely never hit Zenith no matter what levels I book...Well, maybe if I cruise in Concierge/Aqua four times a year, I may get there by the age of 96!!

1 hour ago, mason525 said:

Any thoughts on how to negotiate with Celebrity about having paid more than the low last minute rates, to get a higher level cabin.

I always book through a travel agent and rely on her knowledge of Celebrity and her connections with people inside the company.  She has often been able to get my rates reduced even after final payment....but, typically, I am upgrading categories.  On my Alaska cruise this past June, we moved up from an inside to a Concierge at no additional cost when the late fire sale prices went up.  Of course, after final payment, the cruise line has little incentive to deal with you...unless you are upgrading to a higher category.  I figure the TA throws a little more weight around.

[Pushkin]

3112 is a great cabin - just sayin if your offer doesn't get accepted.

[mason525]

As always-that sounds like good advise Bruin Steve. Thanks!

[BBsails]

Same here.  We were in 3112 a couple of years ago.  Great cabin.  The extra square footage is sort of a "vestibule" and is relatively useless, but the huge round window is amazing.  Also we loved the location, sort of off the beaten path.  Bon voyage wherever you end up.

 

Betsy 

[jagoffee]

23 hours ago, Bruin Steve said:

I subracted the gratuities for the purpose of comparing the rate with just re-booking outside of the Move Up thing.  And, at least for me, the "points" are completely irrelevant...I am well into "Elite Plus"...and will likely never hit Zenith no matter what levels I book...Well, maybe if I cruise in Concierge/Aqua four times a year, I may get there by the age of 96!!

 

Never mind.

Edited December 12, 2018 by jagoffee

[If only]

Well, had to let you know my experience.   We received a Move up for New Year’s Eve Cruise.  We had Ocean View & upped the price a little on all 3  as I really wanted a Verandah.  I sent it in on Mon this week, they sent me an email saying they had received it.  Since I had never done this before I wasn’t sure what was going to happen.  Today I seriously thought about upgrading the normal way but didn’t want to pay the price.   I clicked on modify/cancel & to my surprise the Verandah & Concierge Class said expired but the Aqua Class said pending so we decided to wait & see plus it had  5 days beside it, which meant nothing to me as we put in the offer on Mon.  3 hours later we received an email saying we had been upgraded to Aqua Class.   Very surprised as the prices have not come down but very happy as well.  We also only booked this cruise 2 weeks ago well after final payment & Guarantee Oceanview.

Edited December 12, 2018 by If only

[M5M]

Well, I have a question about changing cabins, but a little different scenario...hopefully your insight will help.  We are booked in a balcony (fine location, very pleased) for March and keep seeing a FV (family cabin) available at a price within $20 of what we paid. I asked my travel agent to move us and she says I'd give up some perks, get others....and apparently we have to cancel and rebook to do this?  Also, she says the cruiseline "could" move us from the FV to somewhere else if they have a family that wants to book.  (There are three of these available, by the way. )  I don't think she is being difficult, I think I don't understand the process.  Am I unreasonable to think I should be able to move? We are OK giving up some OBC as we have plenty for this trip. 

[FlorenceItaly]

2 minutes ago, Magar said:

Well, I have a question about changing cabins, but a little different scenario...hopefully your insight will help.  We are booked in a balcony (fine location, very pleased) for March and keep seeing a FV (family cabin) available at a price within $20 of what we paid. I asked my travel agent to move us and she says I'd give up some perks, get others....and apparently we have to cancel and rebook to do this?  Also, she says the cruiseline "could" move us from the FV to somewhere else if they have a family that wants to book.  (There are three of these available, by the way. )  I don't think she is being difficult, I think I don't understand the process.  Am I unreasonable to think I should be able to move? We are OK giving up some OBC as we have plenty for this trip. 

I see you are on a 14 night cruise.  You would love this cabin.  We were in a FV(8166, corner aft) for a 15 night cruise(Panama Canal) and it highly enhanced our cruise.  Imo, you won't be moved.  I don't think Celebrity pays too much attention after the room is booked.  What perks would you be giving up?

[M5M]

We would give up $450 in OBC, but gaining beverage package which isn't of much value, we have status for evening drinks.  But we would keep $300 in OBC, which is enough for a couple of specialty dinners.  I think we would love the bigger cabin, back balcony, etc.  ….even though we have several ports, its always nice to have more room!

[FlorenceItaly]

11 minutes ago, Magar said:

We would give up $450 in OBC, but gaining beverage package which isn't of much value, we have status for evening drinks.  But we would keep $300 in OBC, which is enough for a couple of specialty dinners.  I think we would love the bigger cabin, back balcony, etc.  ….even though we have several ports, its always nice to have more room!

I can not imagine you would regret it.  If you make the change, keep an eye on the price and perhaps you will catch a price drop before final payment.  If so, it could help make up for the $450 you would be losing.  

OP, please excuse the threadjack.

[If only]

15 minutes ago, Magar said:

We would give up $450 in OBC, but gaining beverage package which isn't of much value, we have status for evening drinks.  But we would keep $300 in OBC, which is enough for a couple of specialty dinners.  I think we would love the bigger cabin, back balcony, etc.  ….even though we have several ports, its always nice to have more room!

 

I am assuming this is on the Millenium class ships.  They normally will only book 3 or 4 people in a FV cabin before final payment.  I would definitely keep an eye on it.  We have done it & have never had to cancel & rebook to change cabins unless you are maybe under a group rate, then I wouldn’t know as the rules are different.  We have been there but it is not as quiet due to the location of the propellers churning up the water, but balcony is wonderful as is the bigger room.   You should still ask your TA to look into this for you & advise you exactly what you may or may not have to give up. 

Edited December 12, 2018 by If only

[M5M]

Thanks to you both, I will keep watching....I really think prices will drop more, I am just excited about the thought of a bigger cabin.  And yes, apologizes to Bruin Steve the OP, it was his interesting thread that got me thinking I would get some good  insight.  We've never done a bid as we always book via TA, but we have changed cabins before without a cancel and rebook scenario.  Maybe it is something to do with not being at final dates yet. 

[Happy Cruiser 6143]

I booked an inside on the 12-night Silhouette about a week before the sailing (through a travel agent).  Only type of cabin Celebrity said was available.  Within a day or two, got an opportunity to bid to move up to an OV, a balcony, a CC, or an AQ.  Amazing how those cabins weren't available to book when I booked.  Threw a couple of hundred dollars on a balcony bid and it was accepted.  None of this went through my TA.

 

So, I got on the ship at a great price, but I only got the points for an inside.  Since I'll never make Zenith in this lifetime, no biggie.