Tropical storm forming?

[HardyVA]

We will be in port May22-24.  Someone on RCCL thread said there's a tropical storming going near Bermuda. Anyone know the timetable for this?

[njhorseman]

5 minutes ago, HardyVA said:

We will be in port May22-24.  Someone on RCCL thread said there's a tropical storming going near Bermuda. Anyone know the timetable for this?

Per the National Hurricane Center there's the slight chance, under 30%, of a tropical disturbance forming in the Atlantic over the next 5 days. That prediction in no way translates into anything certain about a tropical storm going near Bermuda. It could happen...but as of now the odds are against it. Here's the exact wording from the NHC:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EDT Sat May 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of Bermuda by early next week.  Gradual
development of this system into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week
while it moves northward or northeastward.  The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT Saturday, or
sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[HardyVA]

Thanks for the info.  This particular Summit sailing is getting off to a late start tomorrow because of a medical emergency on RCCL Anthem. And now a chance of poor weather?  What's next?  🤔

[CILCIANRQTS]

Good news - it fizzled out!

 

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2019/05/17/national-hurricane-center-monitoring-system-off-bermuda-become-tropical-storm/3707775002/

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, CILCIANRQTS said:

Good news - it fizzled out!

 

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2019/05/17/national-hurricane-center-monitoring-system-off-bermuda-become-tropical-storm/3707775002/

That's not what the latest NHC update says. There's still a chance of development. In fact the chance of formation within the next five days has actually increased slightly from the previous report:

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and elongated area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms has developed well to the east of the Bahamas.
An area of low pressure is expected to form within this area of
disturbed weather several hundred miles south or southwest of
Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the
early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or
northeastward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 2 AM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Edited May 18, 2019 by njhorseman

[CruisinCrow]

Here's this morning's report:

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form within a region of
disturbed weather located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda
during the next couple of days. This system could gradually develop
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone while it moves northward or
northeastward through Tuesday. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of the
week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
2 PM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[CruisinCrow]

You can keep an eye on things on the National Hurricane Center's website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

 

We'll be there on the 27th/28th so I've been watching it too.  Should be gone by the time we get there.  I hope it doesn't mess up your weather too much!

[CILCIANRQTS]

We’re there the 26th - 28th on NCL Gem out of Boston.

I’m guardedly optimistic! 🌝

[outbackpaul]

[J_Kepler]

8 hours ago, CILCIANRQTS said:

We’re there the 26th - 28th on NCL Gem out of Boston.

I’m guardedly optimistic! 🌝

 

We are on the Celebrity same time and it should be amazing.  Weather following these storms/depressions is often amazing.

 

We were at Disney for a hurricane and I HIGHLY recommend it.

[njhorseman]

Updated report as of early Sunday afternoon. Note the comment about Bermuda:

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a
short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday
while moving northward or northeastward.  Environmental conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for further development by
Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT
this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[njhorseman]

43 minutes ago, J_Kepler said:

We were at Disney for a hurricane and I HIGHLY recommend it.

Really.

 

Thousands of people can be killed, homes destroyed, and  lives permanently upended by a hurricane and you "highly recommend it". 

 

it's coming up on 7 years since I lived through superstorm Sandy. Our home wasn't destroyed, we weren't injured, but I can assure you the storm and its aftermath was anything but amazing.

 

Looks like you live in Ohio? I highly recommend that you go to Xenia and talk to someone who lived through the 1974 tornado. I don't think the words "amazing" and "highly recommended" are going to be part of their vocabulary.

 

Don't want to go to Xenia? When you're in Bermuda ask residents about Hurricane Fabian. Yeah, they found it "amazing".

Edited May 19, 2019 by njhorseman

[Charles4515]

50 minutes ago, J_Kepler said:

 

We are on the Celebrity same time and it should be amazing.  Weather following these storms/depressions is often amazing.

 

We were at Disney for a hurricane and I HIGHLY recommend it.

 

I have been thru three hurricane landfalls and I don't recommend it. It was bad. 

[J_Kepler]

4 hours ago, njhorseman said:

Really.

 

Thousands of people can be killed, homes destroyed, and  lives permanently upended by a hurricane and you "highly recommend it". 

 

it's coming up on 7 years since I lived through superstorm Sandy. Our home wasn't destroyed, we weren't injured, but I can assure you the storm and its aftermath was anything but amazing.

 

Looks like you live in Ohio? I highly recommend that you go to Xenia and talk to someone who lived through the 1974 tornado. I don't think the words "amazing" and "highly recommended" are going to be part of their vocabulary.

 

Don't want to go to Xenia? When you're in Bermuda ask residents about Hurricane Fabian. Yeah, they found it "amazing".

 

My wife is from Charleston and no I don't mean Bermuda before/during/after a hurricane but Orlando is SO far inland and is rarely in the path anyway that the hype runs everyone away.  

 

Definitely steer clear of hurricane areas during the hurricane, but don't avoid Disney.

[CILCIANRQTS]

The news tonight is better.

Higher probability but short duration.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[njhorseman]

11 hours ago, J_Kepler said:

 

My wife is from Charleston and no I don't mean Bermuda before/during/after a hurricane but Orlando is SO far inland and is rarely in the path anyway that the hype runs everyone away.  

 

Definitely steer clear of hurricane areas during the hurricane, but don't avoid Disney.

Orlando is about the same distance from Port Canaveral as Houston, Tx. is from Galveston...about 50 miles. 

Houston was absolutely devastated by flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Being 50 miles inland is not safe shelter from a strong storm.

[J_Kepler]

I always like insurance data because they are motivated by money to get it right.  

 

https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/hurricanes/florida-safest-cities-hurricane/6aMejzEg9pmqy2WIVyPoYO/

 

 

[njhorseman]

15 minutes ago, J_Kepler said:

I always like insurance data because they are motivated by money to get it right.  

 

https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/hurricanes/florida-safest-cities-hurricane/6aMejzEg9pmqy2WIVyPoYO/

 

 

Just so happens I'm a retired property and casualty actuary. I actually specialized in developing rating factors for catastrophes such as hurricanes and tornadoes.

Just because Orlando is "safer' than some other Florida cities doesn't make it immune to hurricane damage. As even this article notes, Orlando got hit twice in one recent year.

 

Hurricanes also don't typically make sudden left turns into New Jersey, but tell that to everyone who had their homes destroyed by Sandy.

[CruisinCrow]

Ask the people in the Florida Panhandle who are still living in tents 9 months after Hurricane Michael if they recommend going through a hurricane.  Kind of a thoughtless comment.  Hurricanes aren't amusement park rides.

[outbackpaul]

I thought this was the Bermuda section of the boards.

[J_Kepler]

Let me state it again so that all those of you who are going absolutely facebook over my comments.

 

The unOfficial Disney Hurricane Strategy 

When a hurricane is headed for Florida, people hear "Disney".  

If the hurricane is headed to Pensacola that isn't Orlando.  

Hitting Jacksonville?  Again not Orlando.

People hear Florida they hear Disney

 

If a CAT 4/5 eye is headed for Orlando avoid it.  

Consider avoiding if Tampa is getting hit by a 4/5.  

 

But even a CAT 3 headed for Disney will drop well below a 1 by the time it reaches Orlando.  It lasts for a half day- one day and then it is gone leaving low humidity and clear skies for several days.  Understand Disney has only closed FOUR times in its history (we were there for one of those and it was for a hurricane.)  So describing me as thoughtless would be also describing Disney thoughtless.  Not really a well thought out jab......actually kind of thoughtless :-)

[CruisinCrow]

29 minutes ago, J_Kepler said:

Let me state it again so that all those of you who are going absolutely facebook over my comments.

 

The unOfficial Disney Hurricane Strategy 

When a hurricane is headed for Florida, people hear "Disney".  

If the hurricane is headed to Pensacola that isn't Orlando.  

Hitting Jacksonville?  Again not Orlando.

People hear Florida they hear Disney

 

If a CAT 4/5 eye is headed for Orlando avoid it.  

Consider avoiding if Tampa is getting hit by a 4/5.  

 

But even a CAT 3 headed for Disney will drop well below a 1 by the time it reaches Orlando.  It lasts for a half day- one day and then it is gone leaving low humidity and clear skies for several days.  Understand Disney has only closed FOUR times in its history (we were there for one of those and it was for a hurricane.)  So describing me as thoughtless would be also describing Disney thoughtless.  Not really a well thought out jab......actually kind of thoughtless 🙂

 

What you said was "We were at Disney for a hurricane and I HIGHLY recommend it".   Maybe I completely misunderstood what you were trying to say but it sounded like you thought going through a hurricane was fun.  They are not fun for the people who lose property, lose electricity for days or weeks, have to evacuate, etc.  

 

And I disagree with Disney's unofficial statement that the weather is beautiful with low humidity after hurricanes/tropical storms.  Having gone through a few tropical storms, I can say from my experience that the humidity was horrible and there can be tornadoes due to the atmosphere being stirred up.  I understand that Disney is just trying to soothe people's nerves about vacationing during hurricane season.  They are just protecting themselves.

 

But anyway, I apologize if I misunderstood what you were intending to say.

 

Now back to Bermuda.  It's looking hopeful that the thing will fizzle out before it gets there, which is good for everyone.  Fingers crossed!

 

 

[J_Kepler]

I haven't seen any effect on the current cruises or heard of plans altering, I can see that the weather continues to be nice there.  high 70's and normal precipitation chances.

 

Looks like even the ships there now will have a smooth go...I not sure what this does to the ocean itself though, I would imagine that it gets a bit rougher.