Crazy air fare?

[phabric]

I like to see what roughly the air fare would be for my future cruises.

 

The air lines I use have the fares out for some of 2020.

 

My Cruise is August 2020 out of FLL, looked at fares for July 2020.  The price is over $300 more than what I paid for our March Break Cruise air fare.  You would think the price would be about the same or a little cheaper in the summer compared to our most expensive March Break period.

 

My cruises is June 2021 out of LHR,  looked at fares for June 2020.  The price is over $1,000 more than 2019.  The air would be more than the cruise.

 

Are the prices crazy expensive because of the Max 737 or fuel or just getting more expensive?

Edited August 15, 2019 by phabric

[Zach1213]

So, one thing to keep in mind is that prices just got released. It's rare, very rare, for the first price released to be the cheapest. If they see there's less demand than expected, fares will likely go down; on the other hand, if demand is higher than expected, fares may go up. Personally, I would says it's unwise to book as soon as fares come out. Secondly, believe it or not, July and August can be very different times of demand for aircraft, so basing August on July may not be accurate.

 

Are you looking at flights out of the US, or out of Canada? The US economy is so hot right now, that demand is high for both vacation and business travel, thus resulting in higher fares. MAX has an impact on this, but frankly the impact isn't as big as some think. That impact does become greater as time goes along, though.

 

Finally, comparing airfare to cruise fare is...unfair. Airlines don't have much else to make money off of (from standard passengers, not counting cargo) other than your butt in the seat. Some, but not all, airlines may charge for bags, seat selection, or food/drink...but really, there's not much. Cruiselines, however, get only a portion of their money from the cruise fare itself. They know they will get a lot extra off of drink, good, excursion, gambling, etc. etc. etc. Plus, unlike the airlines, the cruiselines have a way of getting you to pay most of their crew's already low wages, whereas your airfare has to cover most/all of their often well-paid crew's wages. So very, very, very different economics.

[CruiserBruce]

Or, as commonly stated here, air fare has absolutely no correlation with cruise fare. And last year's airfare has little to do with this year's, or next years. Things change...costs, fuel, supply and demand on a route, airport taxes and fees, lots more.

[the mice]

As already noted, just released pricing is rarely the lowest,    Until the airline knows what demand is, the price can fluctuate a lot.

 

As an example, I needed a flight from Newark to Vancouver, wanted the nonstop, and needed to travel on a specific day in October which is low season.   I tracked the prices and watched them go up and down.   From what I read, the price might drop approximately 3 months prior to my travel date.   However, I would be traveling during that time period and I wasn't comfortable waiting that close in to departure date (as I had a flight onward from Vancouver), so when there was a price I could live with at 4.5 months out, I booked the air.  I didn't turn off the price trackers, and around the 3 month mark, the prices dropped sharply (about 25%).   They moved up and back down for the next month.   

 

No one can tell you the best time to book a particular flight.   But you can track using things like Google Flights, momondo, etc.,    Momondo even has a graphic that shows the daily price pattern.    I'm sure there are other tools as well.

[waterbug123]

21 hours ago, phabric said:

My Cruise is August 2020 out of FLL, looked at fares for July 2020.  The price is over $300 more than what I paid for our March Break Cruise air fare.  You would think the price would be about the same or a little cheaper in the summer compared to our most expensive March Break period.

 

 

Why?  July is a very popular travel time for vacationing families, with kids out of school, and Ft. Lauderdale is a popular destination because of cruises.

 

Beyond that, last year's prices have little to do with next year's prices.  The economy is booming right now and the airlines know it.  Demand is up which means prices are up.  Also, the best fares aren't always the first ones released.

[sumiandkage]

While July is popular vacation time in general, the only place in Florida where it's The Season is up in the panhandle and cruise volume in the Caribbean is lower that time of year because of hurricane concerns. 

[iancal]

It is unclear to me why you shop so far in advance for air or assume that the fare listed today will be static throughout the year.

[LittleYiaYia]

I think there is nothing so unpredictable as airfare.  I usually book Southwest as soon as they release their schedule and have never seen a fare decrease.  Yesterday I booked St. Louis to San Juan RT for $100 less than last year. Same time frame (Feb-Mar).  We try to visit PR every year and are now paying approximately what we paid in 2011.  No complaining, I just wish there were more choices (more competition). 

 

[Zach1213]

31 minutes ago, LittleYiaYia said:

I think there is nothing so unpredictable as airfare.  I usually book Southwest as soon as they release their schedule and have never seen a fare decrease.  Yesterday I booked St. Louis to San Juan RT for $100 less than last year. Same time frame (Feb-Mar).  We try to visit PR every year and are now paying approximately what we paid in 2011.  No complaining, I just wish there were more choices (more competition). 

 

 

I've definitely seen Southwest decrease. About two months ago, I booked MCI-TPA roundtrip on the day it was released because it was high season and I know low fares would be...not low. I knew I was going, so I did it on day one, which I never do.

 

Two weeks ago, on my regular checks, price came back down. Only by like $10 per ticket, but hey I'll take it.

[LittleYiaYia]

I always check once a week for decreases.  I would be happy to see one, but it always seems to increase.  Because American and Delta are more expensive from St. Louis,(not to mention the bag fees) we try to book Southwest.  So far our gamble has always paid off.  I think $164/pp one way to SJU is a great price.  $159 is the cheapest STL to FFL.  $5 more?  Go figure.  I will continue to monitor.  It pays to check frequently.  I have the time, I understand not everyone does. I saw our hotel rate go down last week and was able to score a refund from  Hotels.com.  Also got a call from our PVP for a lower cruise rate. 

[waterbug123]

17 hours ago, sumiandkage said:

While July is popular vacation time in general, the only place in Florida where it's The Season is up in the panhandle and cruise volume in the Caribbean is lower that time of year because of hurricane concerns. 

 

While July is hurricane season, it isn't peak hurricane season; that's August and September so tropical storms are not really a big concern in July. 

Caribbean cruise volume is lower because summer is when cruise lines send a lot of ships to Alaska, New England/Canada and Europe. And that's not really because of hurricane season; it's because summer is the only time of year that it's feasible to offer cruises in chillier climates like Alaska, New England/Canada and the Baltic, and because demand for Med cruises goes up simply because it's summer vacation.

And because it's summer vacation and kids are out of school, families are traveling, and two popular vacations for families, in addition to other cruise options, are Caribbean cruises and Disney World, both of which play into demand for airfare to south and central Florida.

[RickT]

To the OP.  Like you I’m travelling from Canada and am comparing flights from March 2019 to my upcoming cruise March 2020.  Last year I paid approx $500 for direct flights on Air Canada (mainline, not Rouge), those same flights are now approx $875 and are on Air Canada Rouge.  I suspect the fares will drop this fall but who knows. I don’t recall seeing them that high in the past except around Christmas and New Years.

 

I did read an article in the Globe and Mail stating that Canadian airfare prices have increased due to the 737 Max issue.  If the fare stays this high I may reconsider my cruise.

[phabric]

1 hour ago, RickT said:

To the OP.  Like you I’m travelling from Canada and am comparing flights from March 2019 to my upcoming cruise March 2020.  Last year I paid approx $500 for direct flights on Air Canada (mainline, not Rouge), those same flights are now approx $875 and are on Air Canada Rouge.  I suspect the fares will drop this fall but who knows. I don’t recall seeing them that high in the past except around Christmas and New Years.

 

I did read an article in the Globe and Mail stating that Canadian airfare prices have increased due to the 737 Max issue.  If the fare stays this high I may reconsider my cruise.

 

I usually fly with Air Transat to FLL from Toronto (YYZ).  Air Transat has their prices out for 2020.  Our cruise is out of MIA.  Air Transat does not fly to MIA and only has 1 flight on certain days.  If,  Air Canada’s is so high, I might use Air Transat fly on cruise day and stay over post cruise.  I am waiting to see what the cruise line’s Air price with be.

 

 

[sumiandkage]

6 hours ago, waterbug123 said:

 

While July is hurricane season, it isn't peak hurricane season; that's August and September so tropical storms are not really a big concern in July. 

 

Tell that to my friends and  neighbors who have gotten five figure damage from July and October hurricanes. 

[Zach1213]

3 hours ago, sumiandkage said:

 

Tell that to my friends and  neighbors who have gotten five figure damage from July and October hurricanes. 

 

Like waterbug said, July is hurricane season...just not peak hurricane season. August, by far, has the most named storms since 1971 according to NOAA. 

[waterbug123]

18 hours ago, sumiandkage said:

 

Tell that to my friends and  neighbors who have gotten five figure damage from July and October hurricanes. 

 

I never said there is NO hurricane risk in July or October, but August and September are historically the most active months in the season.   My point though, was that it isn't hurricane season that lowers cruise ship numbers in the Caribbean during the summer, but that it's the time of year when, for other reasons, cruise line position a lot of ships in other parts of the world.  And my other point was that even with reduced ship numbers, there is still plenty of summer vacation demand for flights to Florida.