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PelicanBill

Atlantic storm Dorian

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4 minutes ago, Traciewatson said:

Hurricane newbie here, but I’m thinking since Friday and Saturday cruises are still going with the thought Dorian would be here Sunday/ Monday and now she’s stalling for more of a Monday/Tuesday landfall isn’t it possible the Sunday cruises will still go as scheduled? Or am I being too overly positive? And thanks PelicanBill. I will monitor any evacuation notices and if there are none go to CoCoa Beach and have a plan B for a hotel way more inland. 

 

There will be tropical storm force winds well before landfall.  I doubt that they would risk docking the ship in those conditions.  But, there is a lot of uncertainty with this storm.

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5 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Here's something I am looking for today as I sift through the writings of the forecasting experts.  Everyone has been quoting the same thing the last 2 days - “The average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.”

Well, it's time to realize we are well inside 5 days. Let's look at the probable spread of the path in 3 days - for Sunday morning when everyone should be evacuating from those areas?

 

Right??? 
That's what I was just telling my Mom who is supposed to be flying in tomorrow to house/dog sit while my family (maybe?) goes on the NCL Sun next week.  
This is the third day in a row we've had a 5 day cone because the system keeps pushing the arrival time back...it's impossible to give any sort of clear direction (and I'm sure this is what challenges the separate cruise lines the most) when we can't tell what day/time/location this thing will coordinate with.  
Maybe it's because I haven't dealt with a serious H in 2 years, but I don't recall being so frustrated with the lead up ever before.

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Quick key messages for 11 am update.

 

These are the FORECAST features. We are still 3-4 days out. Lots can happen. Remember this storm shifted east by 200 miles in two days.

1. OUCH.  130mph at landfall, just short of category FOUR.

2. Landfall between Port. St. Lucie and Melbourne, that keeps Port Canaveral and Cocoa Beach in focus.  I am going to start reporting although models have still been diverging so it is also possible it goes further south.

3. Landfall Monday morning.

4. Northern Bahamas in danger - Freeport area.

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My friends are evacuating now out of their homes in Indian Harbour Beach (on the island, about 14 miles from Cocoa Beach) .  The order has not been given, but they want the head start.

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3 minutes ago, geocruiser said:

My friends are leaving the beach now.  It is now going to be a CAT4

The forecast does not yet show Cat 4 but it is close.

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10 minutes ago, Lukin5 said:

Right??? 
That's what I was just telling my Mom who is supposed to be flying in tomorrow to house/dog sit while my family (maybe?) goes on the NCL Sun next week.  
This is the third day in a row we've had a 5 day cone because the system keeps pushing the arrival time back...it's impossible to give any sort of clear direction (and I'm sure this is what challenges the separate cruise lines the most) when we can't tell what day/time/location this thing will coordinate with.  
Maybe it's because I haven't dealt with a serious H in 2 years, but I don't recall being so frustrated with the lead up ever before.

The forecasters and emergency operations teams are also very frustrated. The computer models just aren't helping a lot and the forecast is more consensus between models than it is consensus within models.  That is not easy to understand for everyone, but for those of us doing this a long time it is unusual and difficult.

 

The thing we haven't talked much about is ships coming back in to port.  You can bet they are not going to bring ships into Miami, FLL and Port Canaveral if there is Tropical Storm or greater wind expected. Saturday seems safe for turnaround, but Sunday does not.  I'm personally watching the NCL Breakaway, due in to Miami Sunday morning.  The Captain of the Harmony of the Seas is on Twitter, and he posted a video of his route/weather simulation showing the ship entering the forecast storm - with the comment "we're not doing that!"    No matter the outcome, this is looking to become perhaps the biggest cruise/storm event of all time in terms of itinerary impacts.

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5 minutes ago, geocruiser said:

According to my friends it was on the news there it will be.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2019/hurricane-dorian?map=forecast

 

look at the forecast map.  It is showing a pink circle.  That is Cat. 4 at land fall


yes, sorry, I stand corrected. 130 is just at Category 4.

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9 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:


yes, sorry, I stand corrected. 130 is just at Category 4.

I wish I was wrong.  I have all ready said "Good Bye" to my home there..  I pray for the people who are in its path.  I have so many friends who live there year round.  Like I said.  They are leaving now.  No need to wait for them.  They know the drill.

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44 minutes ago, ricka47 said:

 

There will be tropical storm force winds well before landfall.  I doubt that they would risk docking the ship in those conditions.  But, there is a lot of uncertainty with this storm.

I agree. I generally see that ships do not arrive/depart during TS conditions. That much wind is dangerous and makes docking unsafe.

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Here's a look at the model runs from today, one set and the other. I am seeing a lot more convergence within each model, and a lot more similarity between the two.  I suspect that we will be hearing about greater confidence in the path by this evening. 

image.png.b67b9d692025cf5c912a5f35204dd658.png

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Sailing on NCL Breakaway from Miami on Sunday.  We are supposed to fly into Miami early Sunday morning so we have decided to not change flights to earlier to just be stuck in Miami.  Any chance the ship comes in to dock Saturday?  I'm hoping we don't have to mad scramble to change flights if that were the case.  I'm thinking just cancelling may be the better option at this point?

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What do those models tell you, Bill?  Still look like it's coming in more north...or south?

 

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7 minutes ago, mattc99 said:

Sailing on NCL Breakaway from Miami on Sunday.  We are supposed to fly into Miami early Sunday morning so we have decided to not change flights to earlier to just be stuck in Miami.  Any chance the ship comes in to dock Saturday?  I'm hoping we don't have to mad scramble to change flights if that were the case.  I'm thinking just cancelling may be the better option at this point?

Canceling yourself is going to cost you! Let it play out.  Do you have trip insurance?  if not, and If you get to Miami, can you afford to stay a couple of nights waiting for the ship?  It's just too hard to read impact to Miami quite yet.

 

3 minutes ago, gizmoneil said:

NCL Sun is ready to board from PC, we haven't been told about any Itinerary changes as of yet. 

Please do tell us what you hear before you lose Internet!

 

3 minutes ago, discru said:

What do those models tell you, Bill?  Still look like it's coming in more north...or south?

 

Feels like the present forecast path will hold with only small changes now... or perhaps shifts to the north.  I am not feeling much southward. There are not many paths showing a strong westward steering, it's almost all WNW to NW.

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Not sure if this helps anyone, but we just stayed at the Hyatt Regency right in MCO.  It's a beautiful hotel, with a pool on the roof and a gym.  You can come and go throughout the airport to shops, restaurants.  We loved it.  Not expensive at all and I believe they offer 24 hour cancellation.  And if you have a car, lots of things to do near by while you're waiting to figure it all out.  Prayers for all fellow cruisers coming and going, and for the Florida residents as well.

 

Karen

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1 hour ago, Raiderguy8 said:

My hope is that they will send today's Sunshine cruise out of Charleston to Bermuda to stay north of the storm.  That way they likely would be able to get back to port on Monday.  If they go south I would think they stand the chance of being delayed getting back to port.

 

1 hour ago, CruiserJess said:

As someone getting on Sunshine today. I hope you're right too! 🙂

 

They are still claiming to go to Princess Cay. Def not happening. I would love Bermuda but thinking Freeport might be another quick stop option.

 

My wife and I are hoping for a diversion to Bermuda for the 9/2 sailing as well.  It certainly won't happen for us.  Looking at the last cone I saw, Princess Cay is out of the cone entirely.  I'm not convinced they can't hug the coast to get down there.  The issue as Raiderguy8 said, would be getting back.  

 

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15 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

 

 

Feels like the present forecast path will hold with only small changes now... or perhaps shifts to the north.  I am not feeling much southward. There are not many paths showing a strong westward steering, it's almost all WNW to NW.

 

I hope you're right (for us anyway).

Our local weather channel just showed us the European Model which has Dorian coming into Miami and heading West (not curving much).  For SW Florida that would be very bad for Storm Surge.

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I have one expert source saying they expect southward adjustments based on those models, and another saying the high pressure to the NE is going to be weakening and encouraging NW movement and a turn to the N as is often seen.

Image result for who knows

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BREAKING NEWS ! Lol

 

They've just told us on NCL Sun we will going to Cozumel Mexico tomorrow instead of our scheduled Nassau! Followed by a Sea Day. 

 

The way I see it... good news they're playing it safe.

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Unfortunately, the European model has consistently been more reliable than others. Whichever way it turns, let's hope the storm moves rapidly and people can get on with their cruises.

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