Seabourn and the current issues surrounding the Corona Virus

[Cantara24]

Westmount said

"Still waiting for a letter from Seabourn concerning the our lost cruise, I’m starting to get the feeling it’s never coming. Still waiting for a letter from Seabourn concerning the our lost cruise, I’m starting to get the feeling it’s never coming."

 

 

With due respect to your recent cruise challenges Westmount your comment I have highlighted is sounding a little bit like entitlement as you were punted off your planned itinerary.

We were on the next 38 day leg, Singapore to Sydney and you know how that cruise turned out, as in complete reboot before Not.

We played the brinkmanship game, we were forced to as we were not amenable to SBN holding our $’s for a use it or lose it FCC.

 

Refund option is now taken and will come; I am not worried as I have insurance that will kick in if it doesn’t.

 

The cancel letter we received from SBN was Mar 14, we were due to not willingly fly to Vancouver Mar 15 and pick up our May 16 to Perth, we thank the Gawds SBN sent that cancel letter which means refund vs FCC.

 

We were lucky I acknowledge that, but thro all, SBN have been very helpful, so have patience.

 

[Rambo_Trout]

On 3/30/2020 at 9:41 PM, JPH814 said:

I have held the stock for years.  100 shares bought for About $3000. I have easily gotten my $3000 back. 
But going forward, be careful - even at these discounted prices. There is no guarantee the OBC perk will continue.  

 

I have either been incredibly stupid, or very astute, and I won't know which for a while, but I have just bought some Carnival shares.

 

The Share Issue is at $ 8 (£6.44) a share, so when I saw the Offer Price below that, I just couldn't resist it.

 

Hopefully, Carnival can continue until this Coronavirus situation is under control, and then get back to steady growth.

[Dusko]

1 hour ago, Rambo_Trout said:

 

I have either been incredibly stupid, or very astute, and I won't know which for a while, but I have just bought some Carnival shares.

 

The Share Issue is at $ 8 (£6.44) a share, so when I saw the Offer Price below that, I just couldn't resist it.

 

Hopefully, Carnival can continue until this Coronavirus situation is under control, and then get back to steady growth.

If you're stupid or astute, it applies to me too.  I just bought some. 

[westmount]

Carnival, Norwegian  and Royal Caribbean will be around in the future, as their hold on the market is very strong. As far as their stock is concerned, dilution, refinancing, and no timetable for when they can relaunch would lead lead one to believe their current stock price is probably generous. As a matter of fact, I have a great idea. Instead of giving us FCC or refunds that will never come, give us stock in the company that we can't sell for six months, then we're all on the same side. 

  As far as entitlement is concerned, I think everyone on the world tour, or our part of it, was perfectly happy with everything  up to Zanzibar. We were given 48 hours  to get off the ship in the Seychelles and fly home with a credit for missing days by taking a  cruise within 2020, but that didn't seem very practical at the time. We were for the most part fine with going to Australia rather than Asia, but once the Maldives and Sri Lanka refused our entry, never mind Australia as well, I believe 18 days at sea is not something that anyone counted on, nor should be charged for. They knew the Maldives had announced the ship banning three days prior to informing us, and gave us  a notice two hours before departing the Seychelles that our next stop wasn't happening . Obviously, those who had their trip canceled or smartly cancelled prior to traveling to Perth deserve a full refund, but i don't believe we are acting entitled by requesting our money back either  for the portion of the trip between the Seychelles and Perth. I think for now a simple letter or email  from Seabourn recognizing that things didn't go so well and they love us would be a good start. That goes for everyone who believe in the line and has been disappointed with their lack of information. It doesn't take that much time or personal to communicate to all of us. 

[SLSD]

5 hours ago, westmount said:

We were given 48 hours  to get off the ship in the Seychelles and fly home with a credit for missing days by taking a  cruise within 2020, but that didn't seem very practical at the time. 

I am curious.  Do you know how many people disembarked in the Seychelles?

[westmount]

I believe around 80 people got on at Cape Town with the intention of getting off in the Seychelles, and only as few got on at that point. We had about 325 passengers on the portion to Perth, so my math is about 20ish or a bit more got off when they announced no Singapore etc and a change of plans. The funny thing was many figured they paid a lot for our cruise and had enough after 18/36 days and would simply book another cruise and go home. I know a few who booked Italian cruises with the credit for this summer while on the ship, doesn't look like such a great plan in hind site. We do have to remember that everything has occurred in the last 60 days, and every day brought  worse news than the days before, but luckily Seabourn did not have any health issues on their cruise ships. I could have gotten off the ship in the Seychelles i gather, but did not, so i certainly understand how we think with our hearts and not our brains sometimes. 

 

[JodiandFrank]

very interesting article concerning Carnival...

https://www.travelcodex.com/stormy-seas-ahead-for-financing-at-carnival-cruises/

[Cantara24]

Sorry Westmount, entitle was the wrong word choice. From your comments I read you were expecting immediate correspondence from Seabourn because of your particular cruise circumstance; we are all pretty much in the same boat so to speak on that. Worse off are the folks still on the merchant ship Sojourn.

 

I suspect we and those whose cruise is now cancelled fall into the “immediate problem solved” category and we simply have to wait to hear from Seabourn. I do cut them slack on this as they have crew to get home and logistics that can’t be ignored.

Communication has not been their strong suit but I suspect when things get back to normal (whatever that may be) then this will improve. I know we certainly will be using this entire experience as a negotiating tool if we book with them again cause we will definitely be wanting to feel the love.

[HappyFeet13]

My opinion is that they will all be forced to declare bankruptcy. I think it will be a long time (probably more than a year) before they cruise again, and when they do, the management and structure of the cruise lines will have changed. I also think FCC's will become nearly worthless (although they will be honored in some way by the newly-reorganized company at some time in the future) and I fear that refunds just won't happen. I really hope that I'm wrong, but I can't see how these cruise lines, with immense overhead and a lot of debt, can stay afloat (pun intended). "Mothballing" ships for a few months creates all kinds of problems, not the least of which is getting everything mechanically operational again. Anyone who has ever owned a boat knows that if you don't use them, they break. Planning routes, finding ports, arranging for fuel and supplies,  re-constituting trained crews, and finding passengers willing to get on a cruise ship, will be a nightmare. Of course Carnival and the others have to put a positive spin in order to get people to book for next year, and to buy their stock. They are fighting for their lives...and their jobs. But I think they know that even if they were allowed to start up again in two months, they just couldn't pull it off. When they re-start, it will be like planning a Normandy invasion, times 10. It will take many, many months to do that.  The cruise lines will be the major international business catastrophe of Covid 19. The airlines will get bailed-out because they are national assets and employ nationals in their own countries. The cruise lines are "a man without a country", and will be allowed to fail, because it is not in any nation's interest to spend many, many  billions to save them. Sorry to be such a sourpuss, but I think that's reality. 

[MightyQuinn]

Interesting article on CCL having to "layup" its fleet for a prolonged period of time. 
https://thepointsguy.com/news/cruise-lines-could-store-ships-months-coronavirus/

 

Various excerpts:

Cruise giant Carnival Corp., the parent company of nine of the world’s best-known cruise brands, said in a regulatory filing on Monday that some of its vessels could face a “prolonged” withdrawal from service consistent with what is known in the industry as a cold layup.

 

In such a layup, machinery on the ship is prepared for an extended period of nonuse and the majority of crew is sent home.

 

“During the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, certain of our ships will be in warm ship layup where the ship will be manned by a full crew, and certain of our ships will be in a prolonged ship layup where the ship will be manned by a limited crew,” Carnival Corp. said in the filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). “We currently estimate the substantial majority of our fleet will be in prolonged ship layup.”

 

In the filing, Carnival Corp. said it expected the length of time that its ships will be out of service could be “extended and may be prolonged.”

 

With its ships no longer sailing, Carnival Corp. is burning through about $1 billion a month, according to the filing.

Carnival Corp. said a move to prolonged lay ups for its ships would save the company about $1 million to $2 million per month, per ship.

 

“We estimate the cost per warm ship layup is approximately $2 to 3 million per month and the cost per prolonged ship layup is approximately $1 million per month,” the company said in the filing.

[SLSD]

This article is worth reading.  It is fairly blunt.  The virus was brought into other countries by world travelers--but those who are getting it now are those who serve others.  There is more to the article.  

 

https://slate.com/business/2020/03/coronavirus-cruise-we-are-on-it.html?fbclid=IwAR0QfX8FtKEDdqRF5oBRbVWOXfN_eJPQD3MlZvzXkv_2mEMRch4CUuY82mA

[westmount]

  Before the virus hit, the cruise lines were doing quite well, and young people were getting interested in cruises in Firms like Virgin. There was a good article this morning on CNBC.com about the cruise lines, about how they are the real losers corporately of the virus, and only time will tell how they survive. Carnival claims it is haemorrhaging $ 1 billion a month in cash, so quick action is needed. 
 The article mentioned that Carnival has gone through every type of calamity in the past and has returned to tell the tale, stronger and bigger than before, so don’t believe they are giving up so quickly. 
  There are too many people who love cruising, and the competition are all friends, so while shareholders, bond holders, refund clients and employees will all suffer for awhile, I promise there will be ships , captains, crews and lobsters waiting for us somewhere not to long in the future. I said there will be a few ships out by Dec 15th, and I’ll stick to that date for now, with Caribbean cruises next winter as a starter. 
  It might take three years for the industry to fully rebound, but it will, where else are we going?   

[Astride]

Rose-coloured glasses, Westmount.

[HappyFeet13]

Rose-colored...in the US only our president uses unnecessary vowels. 😂

I certainly hope Westmount is right, and they come back soon.  Some of the best memories of my life were Seabourn cruises... the fjords of Norway...rounding Cape Horn on a glassy sea under a beautiful moon...waving at the kids in dugout canoes on the Amazon. And the great people we've met aboard.  Will sure miss all that. 

[Hanoverian]

Here is today's news regarding Carnival.  It seems that not everyone thinks that there is no future for the industry.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/carnivals-stock-soars-on-heavy-volume-after-saudia-arabia-sovereign-fund-discloses-large-stake-2020-04-06?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

[westmount]

The issue has been about refunds vs cruise credits, and when the ships will be out there for those credits to be used. Normal people won’t book until they feel safe, can book a flight, maybe a hotel , and maybe go to a port that will welcome them. Cruises will start quicker than we think, Caribbean islands are destitute right now, but generally speaking, we will all know when it’s time to book with real money. 
  Seabourn will be fine, as I’m sure they can fill up 500/600 rooms over a three week period, but the cruise lines need 100 ships filled to make money, so give it time. They know how to play us .

  The Saudis made an investment in Carnival today, just the right guys for this business.

   It’s a monopoly, understand that, amd generally speaking, I just don’t see refunds coming vs future credits, but we will see. 

[rallydave]

50% occupancy won’t make a small dent in their losses. 3 ships 225 suites plus 2 ships 300 suites equals 1275 suites or 2550 double occupancy so your estimate is about 50% occupancy or less. 

[HappyFeet13]

It is beginning to look like the self-isolation is working. Numbers of new diagnoses and deaths appear to be coming in lower than projected just a few weeks ago.  But the price paid has been to shut down our entire economy.  I'm not sure we can do that every flu season. Based on my last cruises, I'd guess the average age of a Seabourn passenger is 60-65...maybe older.  That is the highest-risk demographic for Covid19, which will some experts believe will probably become seasonal, subsiding this Summer and returning next Fall. There will not be a vaccine by this Fall. After they approve  a vaccine, they'll have to produce and administer hundreds of millions of doses.  So...smart seniors won't be wanting to book a trip until Summer 2002...if then, and almost ALL Seabourn guests are seniors.  

[HappyFeet13]

I meant Summer 2021🙂

[pomponnette]

Hello  everybody

That's finally what I received today from Seabourn concerning our 5th April Ovation cruise from Dubai to Barcelonna: 

Thank you for contacting Seabourn Cruise Line regarding Mr. and Mrs. xxxxxxx ’s cancelled April 5, 2020 sailing aboard Ovation on reservation XXXXXX .

 

As this reservation was cancelled under the Book with Confidence offer on March 5, 2020  we regret to advise you that Mr. and Mrs XXXX  are not eligible for the 30 Day Pause offer initiated by Seabourn on March 30, 2020. Therefore, while we truly wish we did not have to disappoint in this matter, we are not in the position to offer a refund.

 

As a gesture of goodwill, we have increased the Future Cruise Credit to 125% of the base fare paid, which can be applied toward any future cruise through December 31, 2021.

Due to the volume we are experiencing during this unprecedented and challenging time, we must advise all guests of a 60 day timeframe for Future Cruise Credits to be processed.

That was send today from GuestServices@seabourn.com responding to my email to community@seabourn.com sent on 31 March

I wish to all of you to stay in good health and stop worrying , there would always be Luxury cruise line to take us in some wonderful places

Take care and Stay safe 

 

 

[SLSD]

From Business Insider--some mention of Seabourn and Holland America.  Evidently, Seabourn has plans to cut pay of some of its employees--not a surprise.  https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-document-reveals-possible-pay-cuts-holland-america-seabourn-2020-4?fbclid=IwAR1yoLOBqWnMNqVtTBwdhk3O_oeQb-SjN_ynf4aK_xk9l5KulSaSbQzxGAU

 

[westmount]

I read somewhere today that Carnival had $5 billion of refunds to clients due, but that half had taken credits , as survival is number one for them.its really tough, as I Doubt they want to send refunds to Clients which does nothing gfor them save for good PR. 
 Few are booking for 2021, cash is tight, new ships are being built and we all want all our money back. 
if they were obnoxious in 2019, I guess 2020 is not the year to test the waters. 
I’m  going to book the first cruise that looks good etc, but I’m not booking until the NBA announces games will be played with live audiences, no ship is goi g out before. 
  
 

[SLSD]

6 hours ago, westmount said:

I’m  going to book the first cruise that looks good etc, but I’m not booking until the NBA announces games will be played with live audiences, no ship is goi g out before. 
  
 

And we are not booking until there is an effective vaccine for the virus--and one that we can actually access.  

[westmount]

SLSD,  we are thinking along the same lines, just said in a different way. I watched an interesting podcast today with a very respected economist, who basically said that we are all in a holding pattern until a vaccine is ready. He believes that those over 65 ( im 61 so I'm hoping its not 60) will be required to stay home for the next few months, while those younger will start the engines of the economy with new rules for separation at work, on buses, planes and public places. When I made my Seabourn prediction, it was always made with the presumption they will sail full, but introduce the ships one at a time to keep things tight and full.  There will be a new normal once we get to the other side of this, but the cruise industry needs a vaccine ( as does the NBA) before passengers traffic can rebound and stadiums filled, otherwise we'll be back to this same time next year. The battle lines will be drawn between a quick return to business and a quicker return to illnesses, or a longer period of isolation but a more sustained recovery, choose your poison. 

BTW, Carnival wished to sell $2 billion of stock around $10/$12 dollars and managed to sell $500 million at $8/shares, so I doubt refunds are coming too soon. As well, the Saudis bought their shares at $17, and with a "hot market" the last few days the price is up to $11, so a bargain is always in the eyes of the beholder. 

[Cantara24]

Probably off topic but still relevant to the industry. I find this incomprehensible …

 

Genting Cruises (who service the China market) have published their preliminary guidelines for future cruises on Dream and Star Cruise lines (Genting also owns Crystal). Full details at:

https://www.dreamcruiseline.com/en-us/media/press-release/2020/press-release-20200407-gcl-announces-enhance-preventive-measures/

Check this out (Highlighted below)!

 

IV. Food Hygiene Practices & Standards

F&B restaurants / bar areas, including galleys, will be cleaned and sanitized 3 times daily, during and after service

Guests are encouraged to wash hands before entry and use sanitizer dispensers available at F&B outlet entrances/exits

Guest seating will ensure ample spacing; disposable cutlery will be provided, upon request.

Self-service at F&B buffet restaurants will be suspended. All food & beverages will be served to guests by crew members wearing face masks & disposable gloves.

Culinary use of wild animals and related products are strictly prohibited.

Stringent procurement guidelines will be enforced and product sourcing from highly affected regions will be strictly prohibited.

 

 

WHAT?? No Bat Soup?? Well then, that’s a show stopper for us!

Sarcasm off.  I also understand the Wet Markets in that Regime have also resumed their business.