Coronavirus

[Liverzeb]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Not sure if the trend is decreasing or stabilized, but I am amazed that is has doubled in less than a week.

 

It is scary stuff  - however from the knowledge I have gathered from an unhealthy obsession with pandemics, what normally happens is a plateau and then a steady decrease. Hopefully this is the start of the plateau phase and not a false dawn.

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, Liverzeb said:

 

It is scary stuff  - however from the knowledge I have gathered from an unhealthy obsession with pandemics, what normally happens is a plateau and then a steady decrease. Hopefully this is the start of the plateau phase and not a false dawn.

 

That would be terrific! 

[Beardface]

17 minutes ago, Liverzeb said:

 

It is scary stuff  - however from the knowledge I have gathered from an unhealthy obsession with pandemics, what normally happens is a plateau and then a steady decrease. Hopefully this is the start of the plateau phase and not a false dawn.

Some models had it plateauing this early.

 

Others have it plateauing as late as mid to end of April.

 

The problem is that China has locked down information so tightly that its hard to really determine what this thing has done.  Its to the point where I don't believe anyone really knows when you are first contagious, on whether that's during the incubation period, or once you're symptomatic.  If its while you're symptomatic, this early plateau could very well be the case, but if you're contagious from the start, you could see a balloon in the near future (especially now that it was found in India)

[Markanddonna]

If the only way to accurately assess if the illness is Coronavirus is to use an official test kit and agency, we can count on China and India's numbers to be vastly underreported. Even though China has been recently enjoying prosperity and great wealth, it hasn't trickled down to their health care system and disease prevention agencies that still allow those wild animals to be sold at open air markets.

[travelberlin]

On 1/30/2020 at 2:21 PM, js said:

 

 

That would be great. My family and I have passports but there are many who don't have a cruise booked next week/month and will say they weren't expected to get one and should not be denied boarding.  Should be done but I can't see this happening either but perhaps, this will be a new way to travel and all eventually will need passports regardless of the port/locations.

But if they don’t have a passport, for sure they were never in China...

Edited February 3, 2020 by travelberlin

[renatops]

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Diamond-Princess-quarantined-in-Japan

 

Oh, boy...

 

"Japanese authorities have quarantined a Princess Cruises ship with 2,666 passengers onboard after a guest on a previous cruise tested positive for coronavirus."

[nanwel]

Bit of a challenge - but got my flights rearranged.

Arrive in Singapore at 25 after 12 on the 13th - hope to find a hotel for the night and board later in the afternoon.

not keen on sitting at the port from that time of night until the ship lets me board. Will need sleep - long flight, and I am not a good airplane sleeper.

Have been to Singapore before. Nice city -  very clean. Pricey

Single lady 71, able to walk, climb etc - love to join others in any out trips on our new schedule.

Nancy

[CruisingFox27]

1 hour ago, nanwel said:

Bit of a challenge - but got my flights rearranged.

Arrive in Singapore at 25 after 12 on the 13th - hope to find a hotel for the night and board later in the afternoon.

not keen on sitting at the port from that time of night until the ship lets me board. Will need sleep - long flight, and I am not a good airplane sleeper.

Have been to Singapore before. Nice city -  very clean. Pricey

Single lady 71, able to walk, climb etc - love to join others in any out trips on our new schedule.

Nancy

 

Nancy, I think this should be on our roll call  thread 😊 Pleased to hear Singapore is nice though. 

[sidari]

Hong Kong has seen the first death from the virus, the 39 year old man had visited Wuhan in the middle of January, the news report also says he had an underlying illness.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7963719/Hong-Kong-reports-coronavirus-death-hospital-workers-escalate-strike.html

[renatops]

On 2/3/2020 at 5:40 PM, renatops said:

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Diamond-Princess-quarantined-in-Japan

 

Oh, boy...

 

"Japanese authorities have quarantined a Princess Cruises ship with 2,666 passengers onboard after a guest on a previous cruise tested positive for coronavirus."

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-health-japan/passengers-on-cruise-liner-docked-in-japan-test-positive-for-coronavirus-media-idUSL1N2A41ZP

 

"Almost a dozen people on a cruise liner at the Japanese port of Yokohama have tested positive for coronavirus"

[floridian1]

17 minutes ago, renatops said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-health-japan/passengers-on-cruise-liner-docked-in-japan-test-positive-for-coronavirus-media-idUSL1N2A41ZP

 

"Almost a dozen people on a cruise liner at the Japanese port of Yokohama have tested positive for coronavirus"

Ughhh. Horrible 

[renatops]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/04/coronavirus-cases-down-from-weekend-levels-as-china-predicts-fall-in-mortality-rates/

 

"fatality rate was 2.1% with the majority of deaths at the epicenter of the outbreak in Hubei province.
The average fatality rate was only of 0.16% outside of Hubei, with around 80% of those who died being over 60 years old. At least 75% of confirmed deaths were people who had underlying health problem such as diabetes"

 

0.16%?

Isn't this less than the regular flu?

[BermudaBound2014]

The latest with 10 testing positive on the quarantined Diamond Princess is disturbing. I can’t even imagine how I’d feel if on that ship.

 

todays stats are astounding 23.9k 

 

[floridian1]

ive been reading the latest on the princess cruise ship that is being quarantined for "at least 14 days". Guests cant leave their cabins! This is historic.

 

The cruicritic princess cruise board is staying up to date on it - not alot of good news there.

Edited February 5, 2020 by floridian1

[emmas gran]

Hi I have just received this link to FB post from a Princess passenger

 

Liz

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

Emma, thank you for sharing. That is heart breaking. I am hopeful that things get sorted out. It would not surprise me if FB removes this video. There was a very detailed thread on fb last night from someone on Diamond Princess and the owners of the forum deleted the entire thread. Not sure why. I'm never a fan of censorship. 😞

[emmas gran]

25 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Emma, thank you for sharing. That is heart breaking. I am hopeful that things get sorted out. It would not surprise me if FB removes this video. There was a very detailed thread on fb last night from someone on Diamond Princess and the owners of the forum deleted the entire thread. Not sure why. I'm never a fan of censorship. 😞

The gentleman concerned has many fans of his postings now, he has been on a tv link for Sky & BBC. Also a radio news outlet in Singapore has asked him to be available for broadcast to them.

If you have FB just search David Abel lots of posts, he has posted his first food in 18 hours was a yogurt,melon and glass of orange juice. Apparently no alcohol allowed.

Liz

[renatops]

On 2/3/2020 at 1:57 PM, Liverzeb said:

 

It is scary stuff  - however from the knowledge I have gathered from an unhealthy obsession with pandemics, what normally happens is a plateau and then a steady decrease. Hopefully this is the start of the plateau phase and not a false dawn.

 

Unfortunatelly a false down.

 

Noticed that the number for the last day, gets updated a few times along the day.

 

So if you look at the graph early in their input for the day, it will show nearly flat.

 

My suggesrion is to just consider the data till one day before the last one.

 

R.

[jkgourmet]

14 hours ago, renatops said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/04/coronavirus-cases-down-from-weekend-levels-as-china-predicts-fall-in-mortality-rates/

 

"fatality rate was 2.1% with the majority of deaths at the epicenter of the outbreak in Hubei province.
The average fatality rate was only of 0.16% outside of Hubei, with around 80% of those who died being over 60 years old. At least 75% of confirmed deaths were people who had underlying health problem such as diabetes"

 

0.16%?

Isn't this less than the regular flu?

Correct.  See post #45 in this thread.

[GOLDENBONNY]

49 minutes ago, emmas gran said:

The gentleman concerned has many fans of his postings now, he has been on a tv link for Sky & BBC. Also a radio news outlet in Singapore has asked him to be available for broadcast to them.

If you have FB just search David Abel lots of posts, he has posted his first food in 18 hours was a yogurt,melon and glass of orange juice. Apparently no alcohol allowed.

Liz

I don't understand why no food and alcohol allowed? 

[capitalbarry]

MSC CRUISES TAKES ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES ON ALL SHIPS GLOBALLY

2/4/2020

 

MSC is taking these precautionary steps regarding the Coronavirus: 

• Guests who have traveled from mainland China or visited mainland China in the past 30 days will be denied boarding;
• Guests from all nationalities are required to fill out a pre-embarkation questionnaire;
• Mandatory non-touch thermal scans conducted for all guests and crew prior to embarkation for every cruise;
• Anyone with signs or symptoms of illness such as fever (≥38 C°/100.4 F°) or feverishness, chills, cough or difficulty breathing will be denied boarding;
• Elevated deep-sanitation on every ship in MSC's fleet;
• While sailing, guests who may have fever symptoms will be isolated to their stateroom, including guests staying in the same stateroom.

[Liverzeb]

55 minutes ago, renatops said:

 

Unfortunatelly a false down.

 

Noticed that the number for the last day, gets updated a few times along the day.

 

So if you look at the graph early in their input for the day, it will show nearly flat.

 

My suggesrion is to just consider the data till one day before the last one.

 

R.

Thanks - I can read the data (unfortunately have to do it for a living) - was more in hope than expectation that we would get a plateau.

[emmas gran]

39 minutes ago, GOLDENBONNY said:

I don't understand why no food and alcohol allowed? 

I posted he has been given yogurt, melon and orange juice, I guess you can call that food. If the cruise is finished so would drink packages.

 

The ship is going to dock for suppliers tomorrow. Maybe they will get proper food then, but I suggest you find him on FB and hear what he says

[Beardface]

43 minutes ago, GOLDENBONNY said:

I don't understand why no food and alcohol allowed? 

It sounds like they suspect some of the food itself is contaminated, and is what is spreading the virus on the ship, but don't yet know which food is the culprit.

[Liverzeb]

47 minutes ago, jkgourmet said:

Correct.  See post #45 in this thread.

Mortality rates can be misleading for a couple of reasons.

 

1. They are generally calculated based on those presenting for treatment as a percentage of subsequent fatalities - so a lot of people not presenting at hospitals because they have a mild form or don't even know they are carrying the virus (and there is evidence this is happening in China and also evidence that sick people are staying home because hospitals are full). This could mean the mortality rate is actually lower than the official figure.

 

2. The virus has originated in a country where the government has a lot of control over the media and this could mean that figures released are not necessarily genuine (they could be hiding or not counting deaths, or they could be unaware of them for some of the reasons mentioned in Point 1. This could mean the mortality rate is actually higher.

 

The good news for those outside China is that the measurable mortality rate is significantly lower than 2.1% at the moment and a lot lower than many existing viruses.