PRINCESS SHIPS & CORONA VIRUS

[npcl]

17 minutes ago, sidari said:

Indonesia have reported a death there from this virus, it has spread to around 30 countries worldwide so far, the UK has 2 confirmed cases so far with around 80 people evacuated from Wuhan in quarantine.

Yes but so far almost all of those are from people that initially contracted the disease in China and traveled outside.  We have not yet seen and active clusters of infection taking place outside of China.  We do have a couple of cases of people getting infected from people that have traveled from China such as the spouse in the US, the taxi driver in Thailand, etc.  But as of yet we have not seen the disease take off any spread else where.  The long incubation time means that it may take a few weeks to see if it will start spreading else where from those initial travelers.

[matadams4u]

Actually the Bavarian case is of some concern.  It spread during a business meeting and then one person travelled to the Canary Islands.  

17 minutes ago, npcl said:

Yes but so far almost all of those are from people that initially contracted the disease in China and traveled outside.  We have not yet seen and active clusters of infection taking place outside of China.  We do have a couple of cases of people getting infected from people that have traveled from China such as the spouse in the US, the taxi driver in Thailand, etc.  But as of yet we have not seen the disease take off any spread else where.  The long incubation time means that it may take a few weeks to see if it will start spreading else where from those initial travelers.

 

[npcl]

18 minutes ago, RMMariner said:

Worldwide deaths from malaria last year somewhere above 400,000. 

Actually it is more like 1-3 million per year, mostly in sub-saharan Africa in children less than 5 years of age. Yes, it is very well known and understood.  Just stay away from mosquitos, blood transfusions, and dirty needles and you do not have any issues.

 

What makes Corona different is the long incubation time, the ability for asymptomatic infection, the multiple transmission mechanisms (receptors it hits are in both the lungs, and intestines thus  like coughing and sneezing as well as like Noro the fecal transmission route).  The nature of this where mild cases exist that dont seek medical attention and spread the disease coupled with cases that turn into pneumonia that requires extensive medical resources (it does not take many cases of pneumonia to take a hospital to capacity, limiting effective care for additional cases.

 

So unlike SARS and MERS that have fairly quick incubation periods and all most all cases were severe, you have a situation where you have a new virus  with the ability to spread just as easily as the flu, with a death rate that appears to be as bad as, if not higher.  Into a population with no historic immunity, going into a human population were it has not previously existed, meaning a high potential for mutation which could become more virulent. A large number of unknowns exist, that is the reason the "experts" at CDC, NIH and others have taken steps not taken in 50 years to try and limit the spread.

 

So what death level does this need to be before you consider it to be a risk? At what level of infection? Because it is new we do not know who will die and who will not if infected.  Clearly the high risk group (impaired immune system, elderly, very young) but as far as the rest go there is no history to determine results.

 

To put it another way every death from Corona is one that would not have occurred if this outbreak had not happened. Every one is someone who made it through all of the other potential modes of death, only to run into a new sources that is on top of all of the other totals. 

[npcl]

6 minutes ago, matadams4u said:

Actually the Bavarian case is of some concern.  It spread during a business meeting and then one person travelled to the Canary Islands.  

 

Yep now we wait and see if the isolated cases become new clusters.

[caribill]

As mentioned above, the common flu is a more serious problem these days.

 

In the current flu season in the USA, over 19,000,000 people have had the flu and around 10,000 people have died.   https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/01/coronavirus-flu-deadlier-more-widespread-than-wuhan-china-virus/4632508002/

 

Yes, the coronavirus is a serious health threat. But I do not see anybody cancelling cruises because of the flu which is proven to be a killer.

[mcrcruiser]

2 minutes ago, caribill said:

As mentioned above, the common flu is a more serious problem these days.

 

In the current flu season in the USA, over 19,000,000 people have had the flu and around 10,000 people have died.

 

Yes, the coronavirus is a serious health threat. But I do not see anybody cancelling cruises because of the flu which is proven to be a killer.

Savvy Americans get their yearly flu shots each year  . Thus ,at least there are inoculations  against the flu ;however ,there are none for the corona virus as of yet & we read it could take 6 months to develop one that works  . This is the problem & makes the Corona virus deadly ,at this time 

 We are over 80 with some underlying medical  problems .We are in one of the high risk groups &  have 2 cruises booked for  this April  from San Pedro Ca . I have ordered my box of 30  ,N95  masks from Amazon & they won't be delivered for over one month from Feb 1st( apparently many others are doing the same )  .We also wash our hands frequently 

[npcl]

Just now, caribill said:

As mentioned above, the common flu is a more serious problem these days.

 

In the current flu season in the USA, over 19,000,000 people have had the flu and around 10,000 people have died.

 

Yes, the coronavirus is a serious health threat. But I do not see anybody cancelling cruises because of the flu which is proven to be a killer.

 

Because it is well understood.  5 years from Corona will probably be well understood.

 

Since the biggest issue with Corona is pneumonia.  Let me put it this way  How many Norovirus patients can a medical unit of a ship handle? Noro has a mortality rate of about .002%.  A medical center can handle it because treatment is pretty much isolation until symptoms resolve and diet.  Now lets look at normal flu. About 1.5% get hospitalized and .1% fatalities. The fatalities for flu are due to pneumonia, as well as brain and heart inflammation. However the average incubation time for the flu is 2 days. It comes and goes quickly.  For Corona current data shows 25% being severe (hospitalized) with a 3% fatality rate. If we use that has a boundary and make assumptions that the number of cases are dramatically under reported and that all of those cases are minor In a disease that remains hidden for longer with an incubation period of 14 days.  Then using John Hopkins data estimating 56000 at the end of January compared with 12000 formally reported then it would lower the percentage for hospitalization to 5.4% and .6% fatality rate. Roughly 4 times the hospitalization rate and 6 times the fatality rate of the flu. 

But lets ignore the disease elements themselves and ask a few questions that we do not need to deal with concerning the common flu.

 

Since the Corona hospitalizations are almost all pneumonia or equivalent disease how many patients on oxygen could a medical unit on a cruise ship handle?

What would a cruise ship do if it gets a case to that level? 

Put off at the next port? 

Would the next port accept the patient?

What would happen to the other passengers if a case develops on board?

Would the ship be able to go to any ports?

Would the passengers be kept on board? 

Would they be able to fly home after the cruise?

Would they have to spend time in quarantine once they did get home?

Would someone fly to board a ship only to be denied boarding because of a fever?

If there is an outbreak in that area would they be allowed to fly home?

 

In my mind those questions impact my decision more than my concern over the disease itself.

 

[npcl]

10 minutes ago, npcl said:

duplicate

 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by npcl

[caribill]

2 minutes ago, npcl said:

 

 

 

Since the Corona hospitalizations are almost all pneumonia or equivalent disease how many patients on oxygen could a medical unit on a cruise ship handle?

What would a cruise ship do if it gets a case to that level? 

Put off at the next port? 

Would the next port accept the patient?

What would happen to the other passengers if a case develops on board?

Would the ship be able to go to any ports?

Would the passengers be kept on board? 

Would they be able to fly home after the cruise?

Would they have to spend time in quarantine once they did get home?

Would someone fly to board a ship only to be denied boarding because of a fever?

If there is an outbreak in that area would they be allowed to fly home?

 

In my mind those questions impact my decision more than my concern over the disease itself.

 

 

Since the ship does not have the ability to determine if a patient has the coronavirus, the question is what should happen with the ship if one patient shows symptoms that might (just might) be that disease.

[npcl]

8 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

Since the ship does not have the ability to determine if a patient has the coronavirus, the question is what should happen with the ship if one patient shows symptoms that might (just might) be that disease.

Yep the questions do apply.  I am assuming at this point that a method is distributed to test for the disease at the office level, instead of having to be sent to the CDC lab. Those are relatively easy to develop for specific viruses.  Without such a test it is worse.

 

But those question are why I am in watch and wait mode concerning my 6 booked cruises and holding off on booking any new ones.  Seeing how this spreas?  what actions are taken if new clusters do occur? What happens if there is a case on a cruise ship?  Do the ports where my cruises are booked start limiting cruise ship visits (Southern pacific islands for example). Do not care to have a 16 day Sydney to Honolulu turn into 16 days at sea (basically a mobile quarantine).

Edited February 2, 2020 by npcl

[caribill]

25 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Savvy Americans get their yearly flu shots each year  . Thus ,at least there are inoculations  against the flu ;however ,there are none for the corona virus as of yet & we read it could take 6 months to develop one that works  .

 

True, but when there is a good match between what flu strains are circulating and what the vaccine protects, there is only about 60% effectiveness which means two out of five inoculated people will still get the flu if exposed.

 

And this flu season the vaccine is not a good match for the circulating strains, so it is even less effective.

 

https://oklahoman.com/article/5652209/this-years-flu-vaccine-is-not-a-good-match-for-the-virus-hitting-the-nation

[caribill]

2 minutes ago, npcl said:

Yep the question do apply.  I am assuming at that a method is distributed to test for the disease at the office level, instead of having to be sent to the CDC lab. Those are relatively easy to develop for specific viruses.

 

 

Not always so easy. Norovirus has been around a long time, but samples still must be sent to a CDC type lab to get verified.

 

That is why when there is a problem on a cruise ship the notice always says "gastrointestinal" problem and not spcifically norovirus.

[matadams4u]

21 minutes ago, npcl said:

 

Because it is well understood.  5 years from Corona will probably be well understood.

 

Since the biggest issue with Corona is pneumonia.  Let me put it this way  How many Norovirus patients can a medical unit of a ship handle? Noro has a mortality rate of about .002%.  A medical center can handle it because treatment is pretty much isolation until symptoms resolve and diet.  Now lets look at normal flu. About 1.5% get hospitalized and .1% fatalities. The fatalities for flu are due to pneumonia, as well as brain and heart inflammation. However the average incubation time for the flu is 2 days. It comes and goes quickly.  For Corona current data shows 25% being severe (hospitalized) with a 3% fatality rate. If we use that has a boundary and make assumptions that the number of cases are dramatically under reported and that all of those cases are minor In a disease that remains hidden for longer with an incubation period of 14 days.  Then using John Hopkins data estimating 56000 at the end of January compared with 12000 formally reported then it would lower the percentage for hospitalization to 5.4% and .6% fatality rate. Roughly 4 times the hospitalization rate and 6 times the fatality rate of the flu. 

But lets ignore the disease elements themselves and ask a few questions that we do not need to deal with concerning the common flu.

 

Since the Corona hospitalizations are almost all pneumonia or equivalent disease how many patients on oxygen could a medical unit on a cruise ship handle?

What would a cruise ship do if it gets a case to that level? 

Put off at the next port? 

Would the next port accept the patient?

What would happen to the other passengers if a case develops on board?

Would the ship be able to go to any ports?

Would the passengers be kept on board? 

Would they be able to fly home after the cruise?

Would they have to spend time in quarantine once they did get home?

Would someone fly to board a ship only to be denied boarding because of a fever?

If there is an outbreak in that area would they be allowed to fly home?

 

In my mind those questions impact my decision more than my concern over the disease itself.

 

All of these are valid questions.  The potential multiplier effects are amazing to watch.  The false alarm on the Costa ship started to put things in perspective -

 

* One false alarm could impact a cruise ship for a day and also generate alarm with future booked passengers.

* One active case could result in a 14 day in place quarantine - this would cascade to future cruises, hotel, air and other arrangements for let’s say 8000 passengers.

* This would then cascade into the general population as it has in terms of cancellations and reduced future bookings.

 

The current multiplier effect is amazing to watch -  look at posts a week ago compared to today or even plastic between Thursday and Friday when airlines started to cancel flights three months out.

 

The good new is the containment efforts around the world appear to have been pretty effective although a few places in Asia outside of China could experience a sudden change - once you get to a certain number of cases that were not contained early the cat would be out of the bag so to speak or the genie is out of the bottle.

 

For those over 65 it would be wise to have the pneumonia vaccine.  This is covered by insurance.

[npcl]

21 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

Not always so easy. Norovirus has been around a long time, but samples still must be sent to a CDC type lab to get verified.

 

That is why when there is a problem on a cruise ship the notice always says "gastrointestinal" problem and not spcifically norovirus.

One of the reasons they do that is because there are many strains of Noro and CDC requires the samples to not only confirm but to also identify the strain for tracking purposes. As far as treatment goes it doesn't really matter if it is Noro or not, only for reporting and tracking purposes since outbreaks must be reported.  They could easily make a noro test.

[Level six]

12 minutes ago, matadams4u said:

All of these are valid questions.  The potential multiplier effects are amazing to watch.  The false alarm on the Costa ship started to put things in perspective -

 

* One false alarm could impact a cruise ship for a day and also generate alarm with future booked passengers.

* One active case could result in a 14 day in place quarantine - this would cascade to future cruises, hotel, air and other arrangements for let’s say 8000 passengers.

* This would then cascade into the general population as it has in terms of cancellations and reduced future bookings.

 

The current multiplier effect is amazing to watch -  look at posts a week ago compared to today or even plastic between Thursday and Friday when airlines started to cancel flights three months out.

 

The good new is the containment efforts around the world appear to have been pretty effective although a few places in Asia outside of China could experience a sudden change - once you get to a certain number of cases that were not contained early the cat would be out of the bag so to speak or the genie is out of the bottle.

 

For those over 65 it would be wise to have the pneumonia vaccine.  This is covered by insurance.

 

For what it is worth, I think I read on WHO or CDC that the pneumonia vaccine was not effective with the corona virus.  But, it is still important to get it.  

[matadams4u]

48 minutes ago, Level six said:

 

For what it is worth, I think I read on WHO or CDC that the pneumonia vaccine was not effective with the corona virus.  But, it is still important to get it.  

Agreed - some reports are of complications due to multiple issues so the source of the pneumonia in some cases could be in addition to the virus.  So yes it wouldn’t hurt.

[lolane1]

16 hours ago, npcl said:

Death from automobiles in 1850 in US  -  0  Its all a matter of timing

 

It is about equivalent to say that it will not be an issue because they has not been any yet.  You are talking about an illness that started in late November.  Had less than 1000 identified cases in mid Jan and is over 13000 now.  With under reporting the real number is probably 50-80,000 cases. To put it in perspective, the majority of those that have contracted the disease still have it and have done so in the last 10 days.

 

6 months from I would be very happy to agree with you if you can still make the same claim. 

 

 

 

Yes exactly what I was thinking when I read that post. 

[Always Travel Smart]

We are booked on an Australia to Hawaii 18 day cruise departing on April 20th.  We are debating if we should cancel cruise before the penalties get any higher (right now we would just lose the $100 each deposit). 

We are already having to cancel part of our trip as we were going to Beijing on our way to Australia.  The canceling includes our flight to Beijing and flight from Beijing to Australia...  (we are hoping that our airlines will expand their cancellation dates into early April as that is when our flights are so we can get a refund).   Now we have to buy a flight from home to Australia - so another expense.   

What are your thoughts about us just cancelling this whole trip??  OR to just buy the new flight to Australia and hopefully do our cruise??  

Thanks 

[licram]

I would cancel the whole trip. You can always go on another cruise so why take a chance. Too many unknowns about everything going on .

[caribill]

1 hour ago, Always Travel Smart said:

We are booked on an Australia to Hawaii 18 day cruise departing on April 20th.  We are debating if we should cancel cruise before the penalties get any higher (right now we would just lose the $100 each deposit). 

We are already having to cancel part of our trip as we were going to Beijing on our way to Australia.  The canceling includes our flight to Beijing and flight from Beijing to Australia...  (we are hoping that our airlines will expand their cancellation dates into early April as that is when our flights are so we can get a refund).   Now we have to buy a flight from home to Australia - so another expense.   

What are your thoughts about us just cancelling this whole trip??  OR to just buy the new flight to Australia and hopefully do our cruise??  

Thanks 

 

 

Keep the trip. Change the flight that goes through China.

 

You can easily get sick in your home city (not with the cornavirus) just like on a cruise ship (also not likely with coronavirus) with that itinerary.

[npcl]

1 hour ago, Always Travel Smart said:

We are booked on an Australia to Hawaii 18 day cruise departing on April 20th.  We are debating if we should cancel cruise before the penalties get any higher (right now we would just lose the $100 each deposit). 

We are already having to cancel part of our trip as we were going to Beijing on our way to Australia.  The canceling includes our flight to Beijing and flight from Beijing to Australia...  (we are hoping that our airlines will expand their cancellation dates into early April as that is when our flights are so we can get a refund).   Now we have to buy a flight from home to Australia - so another expense.   

What are your thoughts about us just cancelling this whole trip??  OR to just buy the new flight to Australia and hopefully do our cruise??  

Thanks 

With so much uncertainty, if I could cancel with minimal loss I would go ahead an cancel.  If things look like they are not going to worsen you could probably rebook in March since I expect booking to drop on both airlines and cruiselines. I assume that you are going to wait until you hear from the airlines before canceling your existing flights.

 

In my case we are within the penalty period for our cruises starting in March that include 2 b2b from Sydney  for 24 days on Princess, then one day in Sydney then a 16 day back to Honolulu on HAL. Needless to say there are all kinds of ways the trip could go wrong if the outbreak spreads into Australia when depending on ending one long cruise and getting on another cruise with a different line.  I can easily see ending up with major travel glitches.

[Cairn Mom]

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/141062/Two-more-preliminary-positive-cases-for-coronavirus
The cruise passenger was on the 1/17 sailing of the Diamond Princess. He potentially infected all the passengers and crew on his sailing. He went to the buffet, stood in crowded elevators and went to shows.Think about these people. Hopefully Princess contacted them and gave their names to the appropriate health authorities so the could be monitored, They are still in the incubation period. They were in all sorts of public places and visiting with family and friends. They may, unknowingly,have infected thousands of other people. 

Edited February 2, 2020 by Cairn Mom

[mcrcruiser]

We have 2 cruises (B2B)  leaving San Pedro  ,Ca on Royal Princess  starting April 18th .we are in penalty phase . tomorrow Monday ,we are phoning our doctor with regards to whether we should sail or not ,with all this Corona virus going around . Reason for possibly cancelling is that we are 80& 81 & have underlying medical conditions that weaken our immune systems 

We used the Chase Manhattan Sapphire Preferred credit card for 100% payment on both bookings  . So we will see where we go from here 

[Ombud]

13 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

 We are over 80 with some underlying medical  problems .We are in one of the high risk groups &  have 2 cruises booked for  this April  from San Pedro Ca . I have ordered my box of 30  ,N95  masks from Amazon & they won't be delivered for over one month from Feb 1st( apparently many others are doing the same )  .We also wash our hands frequently 

If you are that worried I would cancel. Not because I think you are at risk but because the thought of it might ruin your trip during allergy season by wondering if every sneeze is due to coronavirus 

 

FWIW CVS, Lowes, Home Depot, Ace Hardware, Target all have masks if you want some.  No need to wait until Amazon gets more 

[lolane1]

4 hours ago, Ombud said:

FWIW CVS, Lowes, Home Depot, Ace Hardware, Target all have masks if you want some.  No need to wait until Amazon gets more 

My local hardware stores including ACE are sold out in NYC.  N95 recommended by the CDC.  Yesterday, we saw a couple buying a cartload of masks in Home Depot.  Almost cleaned out what was on the shelf.  And my friend went to a hardware store in her neighborhood and paid $14.95 EACH for an N95,  Now that is price gouging. I bought a box of 10 a few days ago for $22.95.  Definitely people are preparing. The CDC recommends 8 hour use for health workers depending on contamination.  So, if it goes viral (pun intended) you are going to need a lot of masks!  The subways are a petrie dish all the time.