Are we being paranoid?

[Aplmac]

On 3/17/2020 at 2:22 PM, Bajan Keith said:

We have just recorded our first 2 cases of the COVID-19 today😱😷

 

- and they were imported cases...not home grown.

 

This thread was started Feb. 2nd. It took awhile to get here, March 17th.

[cruisingbajan]

On 3/18/2020 at 4:19 PM, Aplmac said:

 

- and they were imported cases...not home grown.

 

This thread was started Feb. 2nd. It took awhile to get here, March 17th.

Does not matter how it got here. It is here and since this post the 2 went to 5!!

We now have to deal with it.

 

[Aplmac]

We're up to SIX cases now...

 

https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/03/20/two-new-covid-19-cases-in-barbados/

[JohninDC]

On 3/18/2020 at 4:19 PM, Aplmac said:

 

- and they were imported cases...not home grown.

 

With the excerpt China, where the virus originated, it is "imported" everywhere .

[Aplmac]

Here's a link to an article in our local Barbados NATION-newspaper

talking about the cruise ships temporarily 'sheltering' here

 

https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/244545/positives-relationship-cruise-sector

 

The interesting bit is one short paragraph, below

where our Minister of Tourism alludes to

something I found myself wondering about, a few days ago

- the good possibility that this Summer's Med Cruise Season is a BUST!

 

Symmonds is hopeful there is an option for an expanded cruise itinerary

to include the summer

- when the vessels traditionally go to the Mediterranean.

 

Normally ships will start crossing the Atlantic in April,

and remain in the Med until October.

Will they do so, this year? with Europe a mess of Covid-19?

 

[cruisingbajan]

15 hours ago, Aplmac said:

Here's a link to an article in our local Barbados NATION-newspaper

talking about the cruise ships temporarily 'sheltering' here

 

https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/244545/positives-relationship-cruise-sector

 

The interesting bit is one short paragraph, below

where our Minister of Tourism alludes to

something I found myself wondering about, a few days ago

- the good possibility that this Summer's Med Cruise Season is a BUST!

 

Symmonds is hopeful there is an option for an expanded cruise itinerary

to include the summer

- when the vessels traditionally go to the Mediterranean.

 

Normally ships will start crossing the Atlantic in April,

and remain in the Med until October.

Will they do so, this year? with Europe a mess of Covid-19?

 

 

I also thought that was interesing statement. It maybe too early to tell the way this virus is going if Europe or even the Caribbean will recove in time to entertain cruise ships (without causing a panic within the general populace)

 

As I write this we are currently now at 17 confirmed cases and it may spike even more!

 

[Aplmac]

 

FREEDOM of The Seas

anchored off Needham's Point, BARBADOS.

 

That third shot

shows the stern of MSC Preziosa, anchored in Carlisle Bay.

 

[Aplmac]

As of 7:30 pm, Tues. 24th.

the situation in Carlisle Bay was like this -with others offshore

 

[Aplmac]

Today's cruise ship pictures

taken in Carlisle Bay around 11:30 a.m. 26th. March...

 

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-59.628/centery:13.091/zoom:14

is helpful to see who's at anchor and who's Out There

but coming right back to safe anchorage -in Carlisle Bay.

 

 

 

[Aplmac]

Today is Friday 27th. March.

Carlisle Bay Barbados again.

Just two pics today, in failing light, sorry.

 

AIDAperla -and VISION of The Seas.

 

[Aplmac]

http://amp.jamaicaobserver.com/sunday-finance/barbados-cruise-industry-may-reap-benefits-from-home-porting-amidst-covid-19_190646?profile=1442&fbclid=IwAR1vb-cg3NPVH59kLaFvYd0ZjtB58o0SujedbuHIdBO_rvW7aqmEOuzb23Q

 

We're improving our relationship with the cruise lines

 

[Aplmac]

Two more for Monday 30th. March 2020

showing MSC Preziosa and Hanseatic Inspiratin

anchored in Carlisle Bay

 

[Aplmac]

Morning of April 1st 2020

Carlisle Bay anchorages looked like this!

 

Europa is due on Saturday, with a few more next week!

 

 

[Aplmac]

Later this morning of April 1st 2020

Carlisle Bay anchorages looked like this!

 

Freedom OTS is just out of sight to the left of this photo.

So many of them now, it was difficult to get them all in!

 

Europa is due on Saturday, with a few more next week!

 

[Aplmac]

Likely to be the last few pics

because we are now under lockdown fer real!

 

P.S. Looks like Sea Cloud has left us, heading for Spain?

 

Evening shots - 1st. April 2020.

[Aplmac]

Turns out we could still move about freely this evening

once we maintained distance with others

- IF you came across anyone!

 

And so I get a few more "Last Pics?" of the cruise ships in Carlisle Bay

 

[Aplmac]

OH! and a shot of

the famous and infamous Jolly Roger boozer cruiser

all laid up for now... *sad*

 

[Floridastorm]

On 2/20/2020 at 7:41 PM, Aplmac said:

Did you see

that a paying passenger couple on Diamond Princess (Americans?)

actually died from this thing?

 

Number of dead: now stands at 2,100+ and counting

 

_________________________________________

What are they going to do with that ship?
Who wants to cruise on that? -even after a deep steam-cleaning?
Can you say Stigma?

40 million in the US get the common Flu every winter, 300,000 are hospitalized, and approximately 70,000 die. This Corona thing has a long long way to go to match that. Funny, there is never a shutdown of the economy and lock down of the folks every winter. Hmmmmmmmmm.

[Aplmac]

17 hours ago, Floridastorm said:

40 million in the US get the common Flu every winter,

300,000 are hospitalized, and approximately 70,000 die.

This Corona thing has a long long way to go to match that!

Funny, there is never a shutdown of the economy and lock down

of the folks every winter. Hmmmmmmmmm.

 

I couldn't agree with you more!!

 

It would be nice (nice? maybe not?) if parallel causes-of-death

were also mentioned with every Covid Deaths statement  made.

How many also died today from car crashes??
How many also died today from Cancer?
From gunshot wounds? Suicides? Overdoses -all other causes?

And suddenly perspective would be gained.

 

But the real human problem with this Covid thing

is that suddenly we find ourselves in the embarrassing position

of (for once) not being in control of the situation, God dammit!

Man likes to think he has the world by the tail

but now the world has Mankind by the tail! Dammit dammit DAMMIT!

 

[njhorseman]

21 hours ago, Floridastorm said:

40 million in the US get the common Flu every winter, 300,000 are hospitalized, and approximately 70,000 die. This Corona thing has a long long way to go to match that. Funny, there is never a shutdown of the economy and lock down of the folks every winter. Hmmmmmmmmm.

 

3 hours ago, Aplmac said:

 

I couldn't agree with you more!!

 

It would be nice (nice? maybe not?) if parallel causes-of-death

were also mentioned with every Covid Deaths statement  made.

How many also died today from car crashes??
How many also died today from Cancer?
From gunshot wounds? Suicides? Overdoses -all other causes?

And suddenly perspective would be gained.

 

But the real human problem with this Covid thing

is that suddenly we find ourselves in the embarrassing position

of (for once) not being in control of the situation, God dammit!

Man likes to think he has the world by the tail

but now the world has Mankind by the tail! Dammit dammit DAMMIT!

 

You both need a lesson in mathematics.

 

If 40 million get the flu and 70,000 die, that's a mortality rate of .00175, less than two tenths of 1 %.

Based on COVID -19 statistics as of this moment in the US , approximately 400,000 have contracted the disease and 12,911 have died, a mortality rate of 3.2%, which is 18 times higher than the flu mortality rate. 

 

If 40 million were to get COVID-19, at that mortality rate 1,280,000 would die.

 

The COVID -19 pandemic is a long way from over in the US. There's no vaccine for it...unlike the common flu, and it's never before been present in the US, which means absolutely no one other than those who have already contracted it and recovered are immune. Millions are immune to the flu from vaccination or having already been exposed.

 

If the measures that are in place were not taken, this disaster would be a lot worse than it already is. With essentially no one having immunity without the social distancing and lock down rules you'd see the potential for a lot more than 40 million getting infected and 1,280,000 dying.

Edited April 8, 2020 by njhorseman

[Aplmac]

Fortunately many are recovering nicely!!

This recovery figure is now over 300,000

(this was yesterday's graphic)

 

I'm still amused that everyone wants to get to heaven

but very few of us are prepared to die to get there!!

 

[Floridastorm]

3 hours ago, njhorseman said:

 

You both need a lesson in mathematics.

 

If 40 million get the flu and 70,000 die, that's a mortality rate of .00175, less than two tenths of 1 %.

Based on COVID -19 statistics as of this moment in the US , approximately 400,000 have contracted the disease and 12,911 have died, a mortality rate of 3.2%, which is 18 times higher than the flu mortality rate. 

 

If 40 million were to get COVID-19, at that mortality rate 1,280,000 would die.

 

The COVID -19 pandemic is a long way from over in the US. There's no vaccine for it...unlike the common flu, and it's never before been present in the US, which means absolutely no one other than those who have already contracted it and recovered are immune. Millions are immune to the flu from vaccination or having already been exposed.

 

If the measures that are in place were not taken, this disaster would be a lot worse than it already is. With essentially no one having immunity without the social distancing and lock down rules you'd see the potential for a lot more than 40 million getting infected and 1,280,000 dying.

Two points I was alluding to, although I do respect your opinion:

 

There is no evidence that anywhere near 40 million people will contract Covid-19. If the figures don't increase much, since the winter is nearly over, then this Covid-19 will be nothing more than a mild cold season.

 

Even when there where 40 million infected with the common Flu with 70 thousand dying not one entity in the economy shut down. Nobody got hysterical and panicked from sea to shining sea thus tanking an economy that was on steroids. The fallout from this shutdown may totally destroy the economy of the US. You may survive Covid-19 just to not survive living on the street.

[Aplmac]

1 hour ago, Floridastorm said:

Even when there where 40 million infected with the common Flu

with 70 thousand dying -- not one entity in the economy shut down!

 

Nobody got hysterical and panicked from sea to shining sea

thus tanking an economy that was on steroids.

 

The fallout from this shutdown may totally destroy the economy of the US.

You may survive Covid-19 just to not survive living on the street.

 

The Barbados economy depends on Tourism in very large part.
Within the space of two short weeks, our tourism product crashed!

Head-on collision with reality. 

Thousands of tourism workers now in deep doodoo.
My neighbour worked at Champers Restaurant - past tense now.

We are likely in much hotter water than your USA economy!

 

You know what they say...

[Aplmac]

Around noon today - 8th. April.

Carlisle Bay looked like this.

 

AIDAperla, MSC Preziosa, Hanseatic - and AIDAluna

 

[njhorseman]

2 hours ago, Floridastorm said:

Two points I was alluding to, although I do respect your opinion:

 

There is no evidence that anywhere near 40 million people will contract Covid-19. If the figures don't increase much, since the winter is nearly over, then this Covid-19 will be nothing more than a mild cold season.

 

Even when there where 40 million infected with the common Flu with 70 thousand dying not one entity in the economy shut down. Nobody got hysterical and panicked from sea to shining sea thus tanking an economy that was on steroids. The fallout from this shutdown may totally destroy the economy of the US. You may survive Covid-19 just to not survive living on the street.

No, what there's no evidence of is your assumption that once winter is over so will the COVID-19 epidemic.

 

This isn't the common cold, nor is it even influenza. Once again, we have no vaccine, we have no immunity due to prior exposure. The common cold has a a negligible mortality rate and influenza's mortality rate is a tiny fraction of COVID-19"s.  You're just ignoring or don't understand the mathematics.

 

Even a certain someone living at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.who for weeks downplayed the situation now has apparently accepted the scientific data and projections put on the table by his medical experts and has agreed to the social distancing measures recommended by the CDC. It's about time you went along for the ride too.

Edited April 8, 2020 by njhorseman