Diamond Princess passenger "tested positive for Wuhan coronavirus"

[OzKiwiJJ]

4 minutes ago, Farts said:

I would assume that the doctors would have enough common sense to use disposable tips. But common sense isn't common. plus idk what they do in other countries.

All David said was that they didn't change the tip between testing him and Sally. There was no mention of whether the tip was changed before whoever of them was tested first.

[Te Aroha]

13 minutes ago, MMDown Under said:

Thanks for confirming David and Sally have been confirmed positive and are leaving for hospital.  So sad for them both, as well as all passengers confirmed positive.  Wishing them all a speedy recovery. 

Sadly they are not going to hospital they are being taken to a hostel, no wifi, no phone and no medical on site. They are not currently showing any symptoms.

[fragilek]

if not I would have been locked in the bathroom until disposable tips had appeared.

[Farts]

4 minutes ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

All David said was that they didn't change the tip between testing him and Sally. There was no mention of whether the tip was changed before whoever of them was tested first.

It would make sense to use the same tip on ppl in the same room. you share a lot of germs living together like that. 

[ace2542]

13 hours ago, davecttr said:

There was a study in 2018 which looked at a unrestrained viral epidemic in the UK. It started with one person zero in an unknown location. The infection rate was 1.8 people infected by each infected person. after 3 months over 43 million had been infected and the number of deaths was over 800,000 with a mortality rate of about 1.8%. Re running the figures with countermeasures such as hand washing etc etc slowed the spread of the disease and infections and numbers dead fell by about a third. Apparently containing the disease requires prompt finding of those initialy infected, once you get to numbers 5 to 7 in the 'chain' of infections tracing is no longer effective, at which point the health services switch to preparing for a deluge of sick patients. I believe the government contingency planning covers such a worse case scenario.

They were saying on the BBC this morning that the death rate will likely drop to about 0.014% which is inline with flu.

[MMDown Under]

2 minutes ago, Te Aroha said:

Sadly they are not going to hospital they are being taken to a hostel, no wifi, no phone and no medical on site. They are not currently showing any symptoms.

Later Post 2206 David said they were going to hospital. 

[Te Aroha]

3 minutes ago, MMDown Under said:

Later Post 2206 David said they were going to hospital. 

David posted on His Book of Face after that..they are being taken to a hostel he is not happy and I don't blame him.

 

David Abel

1 hr · 

 

4pm 18th: Frankly i think this is a setup! We are NOT being taken to a hospital but a hostel. That’s where partners are sent waiting out there quarantine.
No phone, no wi-fi and no medical facilities. I really am smelling a very big rat here! Waiting for the transfer now. xx

[Farts]

6 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

They were saying on the BBC this morning that the death rate will likely drop to about 0.014% which is inline with flu.

Based on what? 

 

current deaths =1700/70000. That's like 2%. 

 

I  hope we can tx ppl faster so they don't die. But we have no antivirals targeted for it so far. 

[MMDown Under]

4 minutes ago, Te Aroha said:

David posted on His Book of Face after that..they are being taken to a hostel he is not happy and I don't blame him.

 

David Abel

1 hr · 

 

4pm 18th: Frankly i think this is a setup! We are NOT being taken to a hospital but a hostel. That’s where partners are sent waiting out there quarantine.
No phone, no wi-fi and no medical facilities. I really am smelling a very big rat here! Waiting for the transfer now. xx

I don't have access to Facebook, so didn't realise this message about going to a hostel came after the one about going to hospital.. 

[fragilek]

 I know there are doctors looking in on this board.  so can you comment on the following

 

In certain  situations you are required to do both forward and reverse barrier care/ observation.  I know when I was in quarantine most of the time it was me being protected so reverse barrier was used. However for 4 periods in the 7 months I took sepsis and had infections (all caused by my own internal"normal" organisms so not brought into me).  In these periods the level/type of protection and protocols changed as I was both in quarantine for my sake but also for other susceptible patients on the ward (all in their own isolation rooms but sharing doctor/nurses etc).  I watched the amount of work just getting gowned up and stripped down took to do this.  Certain order of off /on clean/ re-clean which was very different when I had infection - strip down area and bins had to be in my room but sealed from me.  2 layers of certain stuff used - dirty/ sterile was the normal for any treatment throughout but they added another level when I was infected.

 

Assuming that if the ship was in complete quarantine then both forward and reverse care would have to have been used.  My question is was there any attempt at this especially once a room mate had been diagnosed.  Do any doctors think that it could ever have be done on a ship.

 

[Pushka]

21 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

They were saying on the BBC this morning that the death rate will likely drop to about 0.014% which is inline with flu.

I think once it moves out of Wuhan and into other countries that the death rate will decline substantially. And yes, in line with flu. There have been just a couple of deaths outside Wuhan/China. And potentially treatment may not have been provided in a timely manner. 

Edited February 18, 2020 by Pushka

[Farts]

20 minutes ago, fragilek said:

 I know there are doctors looking in on this board.  so can you comment on the following

 

In certain  situations you are required to do both forward and reverse barrier care/ observation.  I know when I was in quarantine most of the time it was me being protected so reverse barrier was used. However for 4 periods in the 7 months I took sepsis and had infections (all caused by my own internal"normal" organisms so not brought into me).  In these periods the level/type of protection and protocols changed as I was both in quarantine for my sake but also for other susceptible patients on the ward (all in their own isolation rooms but sharing doctor/nurses etc).  I watched the amount of work just getting gowned up and stripped down took to do this.  Certain order of off /on clean/ re-clean which was very different when I had infection - strip down area and bins had to be in my room but sealed from me.  2 layers of certain stuff used - dirty/ sterile was the normal for any treatment throughout but they added another level when I was infected.

 

Assuming that if the ship was in complete quarantine then both forward and reverse care would have to have been used.  My question is was there any attempt at this especially once a room mate had been diagnosed.  Do any doctors think that it could ever have be done on a ship.

 

I haven't read the exact quarantine methods on the diamond princess. Sorry. can't answer. 

[icat2000]

39 minutes ago, Te Aroha said:

Sadly they are not going to hospital they are being taken to a hostel, no wifi, no phone and no medical on site. They are not currently showing any symptoms.

He's got a bit of cough and looks run down in his last video. I'm sorry that he got the virus. But that ship is doomed, better to be off it and isolated so they can recover.

[em-sk]

1 hour ago, sndral said:

Reports U.K. is arranging flight https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/18/britain-to-evacuate-citizens-from-coronavirus-hit-cruise-ship-diamond-princess

 

Looks like the Canadian flight is delayed until Thursday.  For the China evacuation flights Canada used HiFly out of Portugal to operate the aircraft and then Canadian medical personal on the aircraft to monitor and look after the passengers.  Not certain what is special about HiFly but a number of countries have been using them.  Given the aircraft is currently in Lisbon sounds like a similar setup again. 

 

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/flight-to-evacuate-canadians-from-cruise-ship-expected-to-depart-japan-on-thursday

 

[fragilek]

2 minutes ago, em-sk said:

 

Looks like the Canadian flight is delayed until Thursday.  For the China evacuation flights Canada used HiFly out of Portugal to operate the aircraft and then Canadian medical personal on the aircraft to monitor and look after the passengers.  Not certain what is special about HiFly but a number of countries have been using them.  Given the aircraft is currently in Lisbon sounds like a similar setup again. 

 

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/flight-to-evacuate-canadians-from-cruise-ship-expected-to-depart-japan-on-thursday

 

According to Mattew Smith some may be off by them

[fragilek]

I felt that reading the last 3 paragraphs this may be was the captains/princesses way of saying - Hey we were not in charge here and did all we were instructed to do. And I agree that they probably did.

[em-sk]

10 minutes ago, fragilek said:

According to Mattew Smith some may be off by them

 

What is odd about all of this is for the US and Canada they are requiring an additional 14 day quarantine away from the ship.  Sounds like that is not a requirement if staying in Japan.  

 

 

[fragilek]

Can anyone confirm today's numbers I am seeing reports of another 88 but not from any of the sources I know to be reliable 

[icat2000]

1 minute ago, fragilek said:

Can anyone confirm today's numbers I am seeing reports of another 88 but not from any of the sources I know to be reliable 

Dailymail says 542 now in total.  

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8015215/British-tourists-David-Sally-Abel-test-positive-coronavirus.html

 

 

 

 

[Farts]

4 minutes ago, icat2000 said:

Dailymail says 542 now in total.  

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8015215/British-tourists-David-Sally-Abel-test-positive-coronavirus.html

 

 

 

 

wow. just wow. 

[teamflames]

3 minutes ago, fragilek said:

Can anyone confirm today's numbers I am seeing reports of another 88 but not from any of the sources I know to be reliable 

Sounds like it according to Japantimes but can’t copy for some reason 

 

[fragilek]

1 minute ago, icat2000 said:

Dailymail says 542 now in total.  

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8015215/British-tourists-David-Sally-Abel-test-positive-coronavirus.html

 

 

 

 

johnshopkins is at 545

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 so 88 seems about right?

[icat2000]

1 minute ago, Farts said:

wow. just wow. 

"Some 169 people had tested positive in the previous two days, meaning that the total has almost doubled in the last 72 hours".

 

 

[teamflames]

Ok what is happening? Outside of Wuhan there has been no infection transmission like this? Either global governments are not testing/reporting correctly or this ship is a true Petri dish!

[ace2542]

2 hours ago, Farts said:

Based on what? 

 

current deaths =1700/70000. That's like 2%. 

 

I  hope we can tx ppl faster so they don't die. But we have no antivirals targeted for it so far. 

There was a very technical graph and also the argument that the majority of deaths were inside china and the more people get it and don't die the death rate will go down. If it is 2% and the majority are elderly there is a real chance as horrible as this sounds that the cruising industry might not survive.