Anyone else considering not cruising/traveling for the time being? ?

[GreenValleyDogWalker]

Leaving on the Oosterdam in two days (out of San Diego) - Mexican Riviera - only concern is that we MIGHT not be able to get off the ship (ship denied access into a port or two) but - oh well - we have the drink package !

Anyone else traveling to Mexico ? - Any concern ? 

 

 

[fatcat04]

We are on NA in a little over 3 weeks doing a very similar itinerary to the one the MSC Mera has been on and where she has been denied port access to 2 ports due to ONE crew member having confirmed type A flu, not COVID 19. 🤔We have booked almost all ship excursions and one non ship one that guarantees our deposit back if the ship is unable to port so if ports get cancelled we are good. I personally appreciate MSC's statement concerning this issue. We have never been ones to panic or take media hype more seriously than it deserves. 

[npcl]

1 hour ago, GreenValleyDogWalker said:

Leaving on the Oosterdam in two days (out of San Diego) - Mexican Riviera - only concern is that we MIGHT not be able to get off the ship (ship denied access into a port or two) but - oh well - we have the drink package !

Anyone else traveling to Mexico ? - Any concern ? 

 

 

Leaving Saturday on Royal Princess.  No concerns at this time, not so sure if it was a few weeks from now.

[Btimmer]

2 hours ago, GreenValleyDogWalker said:

Leaving on the Oosterdam in two days (out of San Diego) - Mexican Riviera - only concern is that we MIGHT not be able to get off the ship (ship denied access into a port or two) but - oh well - we have the drink package !

Anyone else traveling to Mexico ? - Any concern ? 

 

 

We're booked on the Maasdam out of San Diego in April to Mexico and beyond.  Watching like everyone else for news, but looking forward to it including a trip to the Copper Canyon.

[AncientWanderer]

We had a final payment due date for our upcoming summer cruise and felt it would be foolhardy to make the big payment and keep the booking.  Just too dicey as far as port stops.

But I'm sad.  I had no idea just how "cruise addicted" I am.  The selection, planning, life at sea and exploration of the world has become an essential part of our lives.  I can't wait for this mess to stabilize in some way so that everyone can carry on.  If there has to be a "new normal," then so be it.  We just want to book our next journey.

[1ANGELCAT]

On BBC news, Northern Ireland now has 1st case reported. Person traveled thru Dublin from Northern Italy. I wonder how long till Ireland reports a case 

[Hlitner]

6 hours ago, GreenValleyDogWalker said:

Leaving on the Oosterdam in two days (out of San Diego) - Mexican Riviera - only concern is that we MIGHT not be able to get off the ship (ship denied access into a port or two) but - oh well - we have the drink package !

Anyone else traveling to Mexico ? - Any concern ? 

 

 

We live in PV (this time of year) and watched the Oosterdam come into port yesterday and the Eurodam docked here this morning.  At the current time we have not heard of any Covid-19 here in Mexico and cruise ships are still  being welcomed.

 

Hank

[KroozNut]

4 hours ago, Hlitner said:

We live in PV (this time of year) and watched the Oosterdam come into port yesterday and the Eurodam docked here this morning.  At the current time we have not heard of any Covid-19 here in Mexico and cruise ships are still  being welcomed.

 

Hank

 

Good to hear this since we're sailing Oosterdam to MR in two weeks. 👍

[larrywizzit]

On 2/24/2020 at 5:05 PM, HappyInVan said:

 

That's interesting. I wasn't aware that the common flu had a mortality rate of 2%? Good thing I had the flu vaccination!

 

This is completely wrong. The seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% 

The novel corona virus is 20 times more deadly. 

[ozzie0075]

Have a cruise booked on the Nieuw Statendam leaving on April 5th. Still going and not concerned at this time. We will be diligent about washing our hands.  

[gatour]

19 hours ago, fatcat04 said:

We are on NA in a little over 3 weeks doing a very similar itinerary to the one the MSC Mera has been on and where she has been denied port access to 2 ports due to ONE crew member having confirmed type A flu, not COVID 19. 🤔We have booked almost all ship excursions and one non ship one that guarantees our deposit back if the ship is unable to port so if ports get cancelled we are good. I personally appreciate MSC's statement concerning this issue. We have never been ones to panic or take media hype more seriously than it deserves. 

The rest of the story is the crew member of MSC Mera had been through China in the last 14 day or some such.

[fatcat04]

6 minutes ago, gatour said:

The rest of the story is the crew member of MSC Mera had been through China in the last 14 day or some such.

Where did you see that? This article claims otherwise and that MSC like so many other cruiselines is abiding by denial of embarkation from the prescribed list of countries. 

The company is denying embarkation to crew and guests who have traveled to, from or through mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau.

They are also denying embarkation to those who during the past 14 days have traveled to, from or through any of the municipalities that are subject to quarantine in central northern Italy.

 

 https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Two-Caribbean-ports-turn-away-MSC-Meraviglia-because-of-one-ill-worker

 

 

[gatour]

8 minutes ago, fatcat04 said:

Where did you see that? This article claims otherwise and that MSC like so many other cruiselines is abiding by denial of embarkation from the prescribed list of countries. 

The company is denying embarkation to crew and guests who have traveled to, from or through mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau.

They are also denying embarkation to those who during the past 14 days have traveled to, from or through any of the municipalities that are subject to quarantine in central northern Italy.

 

 https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Two-Caribbean-ports-turn-away-MSC-Meraviglia-because-of-one-ill-worker

 

 

I am guessing the Philippines part caused the Health authorities to give pause.  Not saying it is logical.  There are people here in US avoiding Chinese restaurants.

[cruisemom42]

I suspect that coronavirus is going to become the "new flu". It appears to be just infectious enough that it will be difficult to stop the spread via isolation, especially now that it has jumped to many other countries outside China.

 

On the other hand, as more information comes out, it also seems to be fairly mild in about 80% of people who do get it. 

 

With regard to comparisons with the flu, it is somewhat difficult to compare mortality results as of yet because we know that many people with coronavirus are going unreported. So what we see is an elevated mortality rate based on reported cases that are either confirmed or highly likely. In the end, I suspect the 2% mortality is going to be revised significantly downward.

 

I am not particularly alarmed (I say this as one who was booked on one of HAL's canceled Asia cruises on Westerdam and who has just flown back, via Rome, from Italy two days ago). But I do think there will be some travel disruptions this year -- remains to be seen how the situation is dealt with. 

 

[HappyInVan]

Let's talk about numbers.

 

As of Feb 28^th, South Korea has confirmed 2,022 COVID19 cases. This is alarming because 10 days ago, there were only 31 known cases.

 

However, IMO this is a good sign for the future. That's because Korea is the only country doing mass testing of suspect populations. A 'church' with 200k members seems to be the epicentre of the surge. The government has done tests on 71k people.

 

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

 

Of the results available, 2,022 were confirmed infected. 44,167 (95.6) were negative. Only 13 people (0.64% of the infected) have died because most of the infected were in the early stages.

 

In contrast, Italy has only 655 confirmed cases but 17 fatalities (2.6%). That's because most of the cases were discovered only as the patients reported to the doctor's office, or the hospital.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy

 

AFAIK, no mass testing has been done on the quarantined Italian villages (pop 50k). That means that infected persons with minor symptoms could slip through, and later begin a new outbreak.

 

I would expect sporadic incidences (and possibly outbreaks) in Italy (and Europe) until the disease dies out.

 

A fringe group has been saying that COVID19 is no more fatal than the common flu. That there's a large number of infected who have not been detected.

 

The Korean numbers suggests that the infection rate (in just weeks) is almost half of the common flu (for the entire season). So, this bug will infect more people (particularly seniors) than the common flu if not checked.

 

The common flu has a fatality rate of <0.1% of the infected. The Korean experience indicates that the fatality rate is 1% in the best case scenario (early detection and treatment).

 

The Italian experience (late detection, small numbers of infected) indicates a fatality rate of 2-3%. The worst case scenario (late detection, very large numbers of infected) will have a fatality rate >3% as the medical system is overwhelmed (like China).

 

In conclusion, COVID19 has the potential to be more infectious and much much more lethal than the common flu. I hope this helps.

 

 

 

 

 

[iancal]

We would not consider booking a cruise at this time.  Too early to discern what will transpire.  Wait two months and then evaluate.
 

If we had a cruise booked and we were outside the cancellation window we would cancel.  Simply not enough data for us to make a decision.  Far too much speculation and uninformed info in the media.

Edited February 28, 2020 by iancal

[AncientWanderer]

It's interesting to observe what is going on in those communities/countries that are experiencing outbreaks of the COVID19.  They are experiencing firsthand the strain put upon health care systems and are reacting vigorously with quarantines, cancellation of events, travel bans, etc., etc.  They have the firsthand knowledge.  Niggling over percentages is just that.

 

No surprise that other communities around the world are watching and learning and being proactive in prevention.

[kazu]

Here is some potential good news.  Dr. Michel Chretien and his Montreal team are now beginning clinical trials on people in Wuhan for an anti viral vaccine.  They have already animal tested it for SARS and MERS successfully and have FDA approval and the manufacturer in Switzerland behind them.  Since SARS is also a corona virus type they are hopeful.  The vaccine is in pill form, has not side effects and basically stops the virus from entering the cells in your body.  If they can't enter your cell, they can't do damage.  They have been working on this for some time - long before covid 19 came out anticipating another disease x. 

 

He was interviewed on CBC this morning.  Very enlightening.  Here is an article on him from MacLean's from a couple of days ago.  https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/a-made-in-canada-solution-to-the-coronavirus-outbreak/

 

 

 

 

[calebandjess]

We are booked on a Mediterranean cruise leaving Civitavecchia on June 27 and ending in Venice on July 9. We have dreamed of this vacation for years and are doing it for our ten year wedding anniversary. It’s nerve wrecking to not know how things are going to play out over the next few months, but we’re not canceling at this point. There’s really no telling what the condition of things will be like at that point. We’ve already paid in full and are hoping for the best. If HAL is forced to cancel our cruise, we’ll just let it get to that point and get reimbursement from them rather than preemptively canceling four months prior in an unpredictable situation. I’d hate to cancel only to see it blow over by then. 

[janmcn]

From one of the articles in a medical journal I was perusing...The main part of it was discussing the fact that smokers in China are ubiquitous (including doctors) and that smokers are more likely to be susceptible to the pneumonia, etc. that is causing more of the deaths. The following were China breakdown of deaths....

 

"The study also showed that older adults have been hit hardest by COVID-19. Among those ages 80 and older, the death rate was 14.8%, compared with 8.0% for those ages 70 to 79; 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for those ages 50 to 59; 0.4% for those ages 40 to 49, and 0.2% for those ages 10 to 39. No deaths have been reported among children from birth to age 9."

[bennybear]

1 hour ago, calebandjess said:

We are booked on a Mediterranean cruise leaving Civitavecchia on June 27 and ending in Venice on July 9. We have dreamed of this vacation for years and are doing it for our ten year wedding anniversary. It’s nerve wrecking to not know how things are going to play out over the next few months, but we’re not canceling at this point. There’s really no telling what the condition of things will be like at that point. We’ve already paid in full and are hoping for the best. If HAL is forced to cancel our cruise, we’ll just let it get to that point and get reimbursement from them rather than preemptively canceling four months prior in an unpredictable situation. I’d hate to cancel only to see it blow over by then. 

 

As you are nearly four months out,  you probably can buy cancel for any reason insurance if you wish to hedge your bets.  Or cancel if you are before penalty and rebook when things are clearer.  

[cruisemom42]

4 hours ago, AncientWanderer said:

It's interesting to observe what is going on in those communities/countries that are experiencing outbreaks of the COVID19.  They are experiencing firsthand the strain put upon health care systems and are reacting vigorously with quarantines, cancellation of events, travel bans, etc., etc.  They have the firsthand knowledge.  Niggling over percentages is just that.

 

No surprise that other communities around the world are watching and learning and being proactive in prevention.

 

I disagree. Accurate percentages are vital in planning. Even a discrepancy of 0.01 can make a huge difference when dealing with the kinds of numbers in a global pandemic (if that's what we are dealing with).

[AncientWanderer]

15 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

I disagree. Accurate percentages are vital in planning. Even a discrepancy of 0.01 can make a huge difference when dealing with the kinds of numbers in a global pandemic (if that's what we are dealing with).

 

I would like to agree with you, except that communities must necessarily take decisive actions even in the absence of really solid numbers.  Agencies are having a hard time pinning down perfect percentages, yet they can't sit on their hands as they wait for numbers to come in.

One thing we can agree on: The more data, the better.

[fatcat04]

3 hours ago, janmcn said:

From one of the articles in a medical journal I was perusing...The main part of it was discussing the fact that smokers in China are ubiquitous (including doctors) and that smokers are more likely to be susceptible to the pneumonia, etc. that is causing more of the deaths. The following were China breakdown of deaths....

 

"The study also showed that older adults have been hit hardest by COVID-19. Among those ages 80 and older, the death rate was 14.8%, compared with 8.0% for those ages 70 to 79; 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for those ages 50 to 59; 0.4% for those ages 40 to 49, and 0.2% for those ages 10 to 39. No deaths have been reported among children from birth to age 9."

This is a valid observation. I also wonder if air quality issues and long term exposure to air pollution may also play a part in causing heightened susceptibility to the more aggressive and dangerous effects of the illness. 

[haligonian37]

My sister and her husband are booked on the Nieuw Statendam 14 day Baltic cruise departing in early May, which is her dream trip. They are in their mid to late 60's and have had their share of health issues in the past but went ahead with final payment a couple of weeks ago (and have cancellation/medical insurance up the wazoo). They plan on being hyper vigilant with disinfecting when/where possible and, as my sister (a cancer survivor) said: "we're going and it will be fabulous; what will be, will be".