CCL stock dips below 40

[PhillyFan33579]

22 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

Don't trust my math. Simply Google search the world population, number of worldwide COVID deaths, and do some simple division.

 

And they're not even counting the deaths accurately so the % could be even smaller.

 

A little fear and panic is all it takes to start a hysterical over reaction.

 

 

 
The problem with your math is using the entire world population as your denominator is meaningless, unless you assume the entire world has been exposed to the current coronavirus. The numbers that matter need to be based on calculations of the number of people who have been scientifically proven to have been exposed to the virus. 
 

What would be interesting to know is how many people have died this year as of this date compared to deaths in the previous 5-10 years at the same point. That would be more useful data In my opinion. 

[PhillyFan33579]

22 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

Don't trust my math. Simply Google search the world population, number of worldwide COVID deaths, and do some simple division.

 

And they're not even counting the deaths accurately so the % could be even smaller.

 

A little fear and panic is all it takes to start a hysterical over reaction.

 

 

 
The problem with your math is using the entire world population as your denominator is meaningless, unless you assume the entire world has been exposed to the current coronavirus. The numbers that matter need to be based on calculations of the number of people who have been scientifically proven to have been exposed to the virus. 
 

What would be interesting to know is how many people have died this year as of this date compared to deaths in the previous 5-10 years at the same point. That would be more useful data In my opinion. 

[NightOne]

4 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

 
The problem with your math is using the entire world population as your denominator is meaningless, unless you assume the entire world has been exposed to the current coronavirus. The numbers that matter need to be based on calculations of the number of people who have been scientifically proven to have been exposed to the virus. 
 

What would be interesting to know is how many people have died this year as of this date compared to deaths in the previous 5-10 years at the same point. That would be more useful data In my opinion. 

 

That's not how statistics work.

 

I agree that the number of deaths per number of people confirmed to be infected is a different number. However, we are still dealing with the world population so the number of people who don't get it at all is also a BIG part of the equation. 

 

The math is simple and right. Bottom line is how many people on this planet have died from COVID-19?

 

Also, accurate data vs using death certificates would be better

 

 

 

[PhillyFan33579]

Just now, NightOne said:

 

That's not how statistics work.

 

I agree that the number of deaths per number of people confirmed to be infected is a different number. However, we are still dealing with the world population so the number of people who don't get it at all is also a BIG part of the equation. 

 

The math is simple and right. Bottom line is how many people on this planet have died from COVID-19?

 

Also, accurate data vs using death certificates would be better

If you know anything about statistics, you know statistics are often, but not always, easy to manipulate to get the desired result. You are trying to make the death rate look as low as possible, so you are using the entire world as your pool. My view is someone who has never been exposed to the virus can’t die from the virus, so it makes no sense to use them when calculating statistics related to COVID-19. I think everyone will agree people who are never exposed to the virus can’t die from the virus. Therefore, including them in any calculation is meaningless unless you have an agenda or point you are trying to make/support. 

[travelhound]

1 hour ago, NightOne said:

 

Then I guess that we'll have to admit that we are dealing with something with a worldwide death rate of .0073205128% and move on accordingly.

 

Whereas approximately .2294871795% will die from heart disease/stroke/cardiovascular issues each year. (31x COVID thus far this year)

 

and then maybe we'll figure out that we should focus on protecting that vulnerable .0073205128% of the worldwide population while not destroying the lives of the other 99.9926794872%

 

😞

Good point, it's time to flatten the fear  🙂

 

Edited July 13, 2020 by travelhound

[pc_load_letter]

On 7/11/2020 at 3:32 PM, coevan said:

you're right the virus will last until people decide they want to pay attention, our cavalier attitude will get us back to stay at home orders soon

 

So what then....stay at home orders go in place....numbers drop...How long do you propose we continue to tank our economy and stay closed? You offering to kick in funds for my wife's unemployment?

 

So we open things back up again....infection numbers will go up again. I think you've said before you are retired. Must be nice, but some of us have jobs, responsibilities, lives.

 

 

[NightOne]

23 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

If you know anything about statistics, you know statistics are often, but not always, easy to manipulate to get the desired result. You are trying to make the death rate look as low as possible, so you are using the entire world as your pool. My view is someone who has never been exposed to the virus can’t die from the virus, so it makes no sense to use them when calculating statistics related to COVID-19. I think everyone will agree people who are never exposed to the virus can’t die from the virus. Therefore, including them in any calculation is meaningless unless you have an agenda or point you are trying to make/support. 

 

I'm not manipulating anything. Simple math.

 

Your method is the equivalent of using how many people died after getting shot in the head to determine how prevalent gun crime is in an area.

 

If you have 100,000 people in an area and 1000 were killed by being shot then 1% of the people were killed by gun violence. It doesn't matter if 3000 were shot and 2000 survived. Using your math 33% of the people are dying from gun violence. That would be trying to manipulate the numbers but doesn't accurately reflect what is going on.

[NightOne]

10 minutes ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

So what then....stay at home orders go in place....numbers drop...How long do you propose we continue to tank our economy and stay closed? You offering to kick in funds for my wife's unemployment?

 

So we open things back up again....infection numbers will go up again. I think you've said before you are retired. Must be nice, but some of us have jobs, responsibilities, lives.

 

 

 

If we focused on vulnerable instead ...

 

for example in a many areas a full 50-ish percent of the COVID-19 deaths are in nursing homes/long term care facilities

 

Here are some numbers from our county of 937,166 people (since the beginning of all of this):

 

208 Confirmed COVID deaths - 14 Maybe = 222

 

Average Age of Death = 74

 

Deaths of people below 25 years old = 0

 

Deaths of people 55 or older = 189 (over 65 = 152)

 

Healthcare Associated* deaths = 106

 

*"Healthcare associated exposures include hospitals, clinics, assisted living facilities, and nursing homes and does not include healthcare staff or employees. Data on exposure is not available for probable cases."

 

Finally, co-morbidity stats:

 

75.5% had existing cardiac issues

35.1% had diabetes

21.2% had existing respiratory issues

 

So if you listen to the news you are just walking around town as a healthy young guy and BAM you're dead from COVID-19

 

VS.

 

what the data is really saying to us ... one of those things is that if you are old and in a nursing home you are very vulnerable ... but of course your are not in a nursing home because you are healthy and can take care of yourself 😞

[pc_load_letter]

11 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

If we focused on vulnerable instead ...

 

for example in a many areas a full 50-ish percent of the COVID-19 deaths are in nursing homes/long term care facilities

 

Here are some numbers from our county of 937,166 people (since the beginning of all of this):

 

208 Confirmed COVID deaths - 14 Maybe = 222

 

Average Age of Death = 74

 

Deaths of people below 25 years old = 0

 

Deaths of people 55 or older = 189 (over 65 = 152)

 

Healthcare Associated* deaths = 106

 

*"Healthcare associated exposures include hospitals, clinics, assisted living facilities, and nursing homes and does not include healthcare staff or employees. Data on exposure is not available for probable cases."

 

Finally, co-morbidity stats:

 

75.5% had existing cardiac issues

35.1% had diabetes

21.2% had existing respiratory issues

 

So if you listen to the news you are just walking around town as a healthy young guy and BAM you're dead from COVID-19

 

VS.

 

what the data is really saying to us ... one of those things is that if you are old and in a nursing home you are very vulnerable ... but of course your are not in a nursing home because you are healthy and can take care of yourself 😞

 

Agree 100%. Those who are at a greater risk should be prioritized. Sadly, here in CA, Newsom thinks it's better to bust bars and restaurants and ban people from the beach than go after those who most need the prioritized care.

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/california/articles/2020-07-09/la-nursing-home-accused-of-dumping-patients-amid-virus

 

And hypothetically , should cruising resume in Oct, Nov...whenever, I hope no one over 65 are on those ships. 

[SDPadreFan]

16 hours ago, Castaway Cowgirl said:

The flu vaccine only has from 40-60% efficacy rate, which for me means it is not effective.  When they do come up with a covid-19 vaccine, it will probably be equally ineffective.  They have not come up with a coronavirus vaccine before which makes me think it is not an easy thing to do.  But I think the vaccine is like a placebo and will make everyone feel better regardless of efficacy— similar to the flu shot.  In that way it doesn’t really matter how effective it is.

 

I started getting Flu shots at the tender age of 17 1/2, courtesy of the U.S. Navy. I got one every year for those 24 years of service. Since then - I've continued to get one EVERY year like clockwork since 1998 - the year I retired from the Navy. During those 24 years, I've been all over the world, to include such garden spots as Mombasa, Kenya, Karachi, Pakistan, Jebal Ali, UAE. and many other locations with approximately 5000 - 6500 of my shipmates (aircraft carriers). Since my retirement in 1998, I've continued to travel to various countries both by air and sea. The end result - 47continuous years of NEVER getting diagnosed with the Flu.

 

So at least from my perspective (and actual experience). The influenza vaccine is 100% effective. My wife has had the exact same experience (gets a flu shot with me every year for the last 30 years). So combined - that is 77 life years of not being diagnosed with the Flu. I'll go ahead and stay with that track record and when the COVID-19 vaccine is made available, count me as one of the first in line. If you wish - obviously you can continue to "roll the infectious disease dice". I wish you well.

[Daytonasailor]

I got on here to check out opinions on the CCL stock. What's with all the stats on dead people?

[HaveWeMetYet]

5 hours ago, Daytonasailor said:

I got on here to check out opinions on the CCL stock. What's with all the stats on dead people?

Looks like Carnival is back in the debt markets again this morning. They are looking to raise another 1 billion. So much for the "we have enough cash to survive without any income for 18 months line", or they are expecting a much longer shutdown. Interest rates for this debt offering are 10.5 to 11%. It is possible they have some debt notes coming due and need to roll over.

[VentureMan_2000]

A good day trader should be having a hay-day with the daily prices swings of CCL...  average price swing percentage for May was 8.18%... June 8.34%... and first two weeks of July 7.92%.

[barry1984]

2 hours ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

Looks like Carnival is back in the debt markets again this morning. They are looking to raise another 1 billion. So much for the "we have enough cash to survive without any income for 18 months line", or they are expecting a much longer shutdown. Interest rates for this debt offering are 10.5 to 11%. It is possible they have some debt notes coming due and need to roll over.

 

That looks like bad news to me. Why increase debt at these interest rates if they have so much cash?

This continual increase in debt will make CCL unprofitable for years. Yes, it will keep them in business for a few more months but it has to be paid back eventually.... and there's no government lifeline to bail them out if they can't pay. As the shutdown continues to be extended/reinstated with no obvious end date for the cruise lines to start sailing again, they will require even more debt to stay alive at increasingly unfavourable rates. Until there's a clear plan for recovery, it's just too big a risk to invest in long term at the current inflated stock price.

Edited July 14, 2020 by barry1984

[VentureMan_2000]

If Carnival Corp can get partially underway by 6 months and get about 1/3rd of their ships sailing again, then that should help quite a bit in that this would net them upwards of an additional $1B annually that they could used to pay down the $11B debt they recently borrowed.  So perhaps they can pay it down in 3 or 4 years, which would correspond to when their debt comes due.    

[travelhound]

5 hours ago, VentureMan_2000 said:

A good day trader should be having a hay-day with the daily prices swings of CCL...  average price swing percentage for May was 8.18%... June 8.34%... and first two weeks of July 7.92%.

Yep, it's going to be a very volatile stock until they are able to resume operation.  It would also really take off if a vaccine is introduced.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-produced-robust-immune-response-in-all-patients.html?__source=androidappshare

[ano]

12 hours ago, Daytonasailor said:

I got on here to check out opinions on the CCL stock. What's with all the stats on dead people?

I sold mine. I made a small amount since buying it in April, but honestly, I now believe its going to take much longer to recover than initially hoped. Carnival is selling the older ships, which is some cases, are more profitable to operate, which also means, for years, the number of cruise customers will be down. Sadly, many cruise customers have also died of COVID-19. The "new" Carnival will be smaller, which is not a bad thing in itself, but future cruises will likely be more costly, ships newer, which will limit many NEW cruisers because costs are higher. Carnival will come back, but it will take years, and the new business model has yet to be tested. Too much risk for me for the limited gain. 

[TNcruising02]

I don't think the number of cruise customers who died of Covid is very high.  There are 382 million people in the US with less than 140,000 deaths.  I doubt that number includes a large number of cruisers.

Anyway, I am watching the stock daily and am considering buying stock if it dips around $10 again.  I still have 100 shares, but sold the rest for a profit.  I think it's a good buy at $14.50, but may take some time to recover.  It's a guessing game with stocks.

[Daytonasailor]

9 hours ago, TNcruising02 said:

I don't think the number of cruise customers who died of Covid is very high.  There are 382 million people in the US with less than 140,000 deaths.  I doubt that number includes a large number of cruisers.

Anyway, I am watching the stock daily and am considering buying stock if it dips around $10 again.  I still have 100 shares, but sold the rest for a profit.  I think it's a good buy at $14.50, but may take some time to recover.  It's a guessing game with stocks.

Aaahhh, now were back on track with the subject. Your right, I bought at $13.82, and it looks like about $15.80 this AM. Still a couple of bucks ahead and watching closely. I'm a gambler and I'm riding the waves of the market. My personal opinion is that all the three big lines will survive. I play the game for fun, so there's no life changing money involved which makes it fun.

[TNcruising02]

9 hours ago, Daytonasailor said:

Aaahhh, now were back on track with the subject. Your right, I bought at $13.82, and it looks like about $15.80 this AM. Still a couple of bucks ahead and watching closely. I'm a gambler and I'm riding the waves of the market. My personal opinion is that all the three big lines will survive. I play the game for fun, so there's no life changing money involved which makes it fun.

 

I play for fun too.  It's easier to take a risk when your a loss isn't a big deal.  I think stocks are less risky than slots.  I usually play the slots when I cruise, but never gamble more than a couple hundred. I've been having fun the past few months with the travel stocks.  I even bought a cheap medical stock for 38 cents a share and it hit $3 per share.  Woohoo.   Carnival is up again today. It's $17.42 right now.  These travel stocks fluctuate so much that even if someone is in it for the short term, it's a good opportunity.

Edited July 15, 2020 by TNcruising02

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

A voice that is assuredly not an "optimist" on investing in CCL:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4360869-evaluating-of-worst-picks-of-all-time-carnival-cruise-lines

[19cruiser59]

Under $14.00 and still falling again.

[TNcruising02]

2 hours ago, 19cruiser59 said:

Under $14.00 and still falling again.

 

The airline stocks dipped a bit too, so I purchased more.  I am watching Carnival closely and really want to take advantage of a dip.

[Computer Nerd]

On 7/13/2020 at 1:05 PM, PhillyFan33579 said:

Because  if your numbers are correct, you would have to be an idiot to react the way people have reacted to this virus around the world. 

 

Correct. We have a lot of idiots in the world driven by the media with their own agenda.

[TNcruising02]

1 hour ago, fyree39 said:

I was tempted, but bought Johnson and Johnson instead.

 

It definitely looked like a good deal at $13.75.  I held off too and stuck with the airlines.  I'm watching Carnival closely though and am pretty sure I will take the plunge again one of these days.