RCL Share Price

[SunNFunCruzer]

4 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

 

I wasn't referring to your post from January, I was referring to you latest post at the time. You would have seen as it was just above my replies.

I was contradicting your three points by giving the facts, as I know them, on why they were what they were. I didn't just blatantly spew them out.

I was looking for the logic that drove you to them.

 

 

 

Once again,  I have NO IDEA what you are talking about.  What 3 points?

 

In the post that you quoted, I said: 

 

 

23 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

 

I stand by my earlier statements on this thread.  I was correct about no April or May cruises.  If the article below is true, I will be right about stock price, too.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-bailout-could-exclude-carnival-norwegian-royal-caribbean-cruise-lines.html

 

 

 

And the statements in that post were proven true.  The article WAS accurate that cruiselines cannot currently receive bailout funds AND today ALL 3 major cruiselines stocks are down approximately 15% if not greater.  I also stated that CEO & Corporations should have a rainy day cash fund -- that's indisputable.   

 

The lines have secured loans for now.  If the cruise stoppage extends for up to 6 months, there will be another liquidity squeeze.  People will delay booking cruises so the lines will not have the cash deposit floats.  Only time will tell how this all shakes out for the cruiselines and their stock.

 

 

 

[ECCruise]

Lets all be honest.  The deaths on the Zaandam are not going to help matters.  Not at all.

[Baron Barracuda]

22 hours ago, SunNFunCruzer said:

And, to follow-up on why I think the stock will fall again.   Do you realize that the last time I checked, the President of Celebrity Cruises Lisa, was reported to be a Travel Agent with an undergraduate degree in accounting from a small private college in Boston (Bentley) who was promoted and promoted in Sales positions until she landed as the first female president of a large cruiseline?

 

Would you want your Travel Agent running the company you work for?  I, for one, would not.  Well-run Corporations have cash on hand for a rainy day.  Salespeople chase the next sale and the next dollar.  Celebrity/RCL/Carnival/NCL and many other irresponsible companies do not have rainy day funds.  That's one of my points.   

 

Capitalism in times of prosperity and Socialism (ie Government Corporate handouts) during times of hardship is how the rich get rich and stay rich -- exploiting the lower and working classes.  At some point, the lower/middle classes will get wise and rebel.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Lutoff-Perlo

 

 

First, while Bentley is small it is a well regarded business school.  My dear niece and her friends graduating this spring were all highly recruited.

 

Regarding LLP, while her title may be president of Celebrity Cruises she is really just division manager of a unit that only comprises 20% of RCCI.  Her role is mostly management and marketing for her brand.  The real finance responsibilities lie with Jason Liberty the RCCI cfo and John Fain the ceo.

 

As far as lack of rainy day money apparently RCCI has lots of company as 90%+ of companies are currently experiencing liquidity problems.  They are dealing with it though as evidenced by the $2.7B in credit lines they added.  Hopefully that's enough to tide them over.

[NutsAboutGolf]

Travel stocks are taking a beating and are falling

 

RCL is at $22.66, today's low was $22.25

NCLH current low today $8.12, record low of $7.03

CCL  just broke $8.02, record low (past-decade) of $7.80

[sfaaa]

We haven't seen the bottom yet I am afraid. Coronavirus is expected to peak in the next 4 weeks. It's going to be a doom and gloom April and perhaps May for stock markets and part of the world.

[Prost Seattle]

If RCL debt gets downgraded to junk status, there will probably be a collapse in the stock price.  Once debt gets to that level, a lot of investors try and flee the stock, or there are covenants in funds to divest at that time.  

[Baron Barracuda]

Airline and hotel stocks are down almost as much as cruise lines.  Vacationers will fly in airplanes, stay in hotels and go to Disney long before they trust cruising again.   I'm not buying any travel stock until a medical solution emerges but when that eventually happens will be more inclined to look at United, American, Southwest, Marriott and Hilton ahead of RCL and CCL.   

[HS2BS]

Just picture where the stock price will go when RCL announces the next round of cancellations!

 

Hal

[Wolf 8]

On 3/26/2020 at 8:48 PM, SunNFunCruzer said:

And, to follow-up on why I think the stock will fall again.   Do you realize that the last time I checked, the President of Celebrity Cruises Lisa, was reported to be a Travel Agent with an undergraduate degree in accounting from a small private college in Boston (Bentley) who was promoted and promoted in Sales positions until she landed as the first female president of a large cruiseline?

 

Would you want your Travel Agent running the company you work for?  I, for one, would not.  Well-run Corporations have cash on hand for a rainy day.  Salespeople chase the next sale and the next dollar.  Celebrity/RCL/Carnival/NCL and many other irresponsible companies do not have rainy day funds.  That's one of my points.   

 

Capitalism in times of prosperity and Socialism (ie Government Corporate handouts) during times of hardship is how the rich get rich and stay rich -- exploiting the lower and working classes.  At some point, the lower/middle classes will get wise and rebel.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Lutoff-Perlo

 

 

 

Your prediction that the lower/middle class will wise up one day and rebel against the rich got me to thinking where the blood letting will begin.  I realized that the one place a subservient underclass is required to indulge the privileged in an inescapable place is this: luxury cruise ships.

 

Picture how the mutiny would emerge from the bowels of those vessels.  Younger passengers in lower floor cabins would of course be dispatched first by their dutiful cabin stewards.  Lastly, butlers who service the assisted living suites would (politely, I am sure) sacrifice their elite, entitled guests in the cleansing name of social justice.

 

I'll hold your prediction in mind on future voyages, now that I realize our happy, brown little servants possess a brutal recourse, when your revolution begins.

 

*** FYI - This is satire or, to be less kind, mockery.  There's no need to defend you comment.  I'll stipulate in advance that the revolution will spare you and yours.

 

 

[Fouremco]

50 minutes ago, HS2BS said:

Just picture where the stock price will go when RCL announces the next round of cancellations!

Quite right, "when", not "if".

[shipshape sam]

On 4/3/2020 at 7:44 PM, Fouremco said:

Quite right, "when", not "if".

Waiting for the dividend to be eliminated or reduced. 

[JimInBuffalo]

According to the New York Times, 4/7/20: “Shares of cruise operator Carnival jumped by more than 20% (Monday) after Saudi Arabia’s State investment fund said it had acquired an 8% stake in the company”.

[JimInBuffalo]

RCL was up 21.4% for Monday as well. Norwegian gained 18.32%

[4774Papa]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/carnival-stock-soars-after-saudi-sovereign-wealth-fund-discloses-stake.html

 

https://www.*****.com/2020/04/02/royal-caribbean-bolsters-financial-situation-348-billion-backup-financing

 

 

[Georgia_Peaches]

I knew about Carnival but was wondering what was propping up RCL's stock price.  Thanks for posting.

[XuGator]

Its amazing how most peoples gloom and doom predictions didn't age very well. RCL is up almost 50% on the week alone. Currently trading at 43.22

[ECCruise]

Fantasy Land. 

[JimInBuffalo]

On 4/7/2020 at 4:53 PM, 4774Papa said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/carnival-stock-soars-after-saudi-sovereign-wealth-fund-discloses-stake.html

 

https://www.*****.com/2020/04/02/royal-caribbean-bolsters-financial-situation-348-billion-backup-financing

 

 

Good info. looks like another good day so far. The market likes good news about the flattening of the curve. Let’s hope for everyone’s sake that we continue to do the things that have helped the situation so far.

Good health to all,

-Jim

P.S. It snowed here this morning and I am more than ready to cruise again. Especially if its warm there.

[JimInBuffalo]

On 4/5/2020 at 1:49 PM, shipshape sam said:

Waiting for the dividend to be eliminated or reduced. 

There was an article yesterday on Reuter’s that was critical of RCL and others for not cutting their dividends.:

”While many U.S. companies are scaling back payouts after decades in which the amount of money paid to investors through buybacks and dividends more than tripled, some are maintaining their policies despite economic pain. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., Haliburton, GM and McDonalds have all laid off staff, cut hours, or slashed salaries while maintaining payouts according to a review of regulatory filings, company announcements and company officials”.

“Royal Caribbean which has halted its cruises in response to the pandemic and borrowed to boost its liquidity to more than $3.6 Billion, said it began to layoff contract workers in mid-march, though the move does not affect its full-time employees.”

”The company has not suspended its remaining $600 million share buyback program, which expires in May OR its dividend, which totaled $602 million last year and is set quarterly.”

”Carnival Corp haas also laid off workers and has suspended dividends and buybacks as it raised more than $6 billion in capital markets to weather the Coronavirus storm”.

[rimmit]

Looks like it’s almost time to short it.....again.   There is zero cause for this most recent run.

 

Even Dead cats bounce.

[marieps]

I was happy dip my toe at $41 and plunge at $25.  My basis is now around $30, and hope to get the OBC on each cruise going forward.   Whether I buy any more will now depend on now many additional sailings are cancelled.  Very surprising to see so few AQ rooms available on the Equinox May 13, 2020 voyage.    

[zdad59]

I'll consider myself fortunate.    I bought a few weeks ago at $26 and change.    It popped to 42 in a few days where I put a stop limit order in for a 15% drop.    That stop limit triggered a few days later and my stake sold at ~$34, on its way back down.    So i banked a 30%ish gain.     When it tanked into the mid 20's again, I bought again.   It hit $40 again today, and I again put a stop limit on the shares.    If it keeps going up, great.   If it tanks, I have locked in another short term gain.

 

My view is that RCL is a trade right now, not an investment.    If you view it as an investment you may get hurt bad.    If you have a super long time horizon, you should eventually be ok unless they decide to restructure, then all bets are off.      If you play it as a short term trade, there is an opportunity to make a few bucks.

 

I like RCL as a company....a lot.   I think it's ell managed.    Its our go to cruise line, but this is a once in a lifetime event and no one can say with any certainly whats going to happen.   I have my opinions, but that and a dollar may get you a cup of coffee.   

[grandgeezer]

4 hours ago, JimInBuffalo said:

There was an article yesterday on Reuter’s that was critical of RCL and others for not cutting their dividends.:

”While many U.S. companies are scaling back payouts after decades in which the amount of money paid to investors through buybacks and dividends more than tripled, some are maintaining their policies despite economic pain. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., Haliburton, GM and McDonalds have all laid off staff, cut hours, or slashed salaries while maintaining payouts according to a review of regulatory filings, company announcements and company officials”.

“Royal Caribbean which has halted its cruises in response to the pandemic and borrowed to boost its liquidity to more than $3.6 Billion, said it began to layoff contract workers in mid-march, though the move does not affect its full-time employees.”

”The company has not suspended its remaining $600 million share buyback program, which expires in May OR its dividend, which totaled $602 million last year and is set quarterly.”

”Carnival Corp haas also laid off workers and has suspended dividends and buybacks as it raised more than $6 billion in capital markets to weather the Coronavirus storm”.

What's their hurry to cut or eliminate the dividend? The next exdividend date is the end of May or early June. Let the shareholders build up their hopes then pull the rug out from under them. I think the stock price might reflect this happening, or it did at the lower price.

[ECCruise]

1 hour ago, marieps said:

I was happy dip my toe at $41 and plunge at $25.  My basis is now around $30, and hope to get the OBC on each cruise going forward.   Whether I buy any more will now depend on now many additional sailings are cancelled.  Very surprising to see so few AQ rooms available on the Equinox May 13, 2020 voyage.    

Everyone is waiting for them to cancel.  Why would anyone cancel on their own and not have the refund option?

[marieps]

51 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Everyone is waiting for them to cancel.  Why would anyone cancel on their own and not have the refund option?

They cancelled Silhouette 3/27 on me.  I'm waiting for my FCC cert.  I chose to cancel Summit in July.  Just before the full payment date.  NYC will not be ready.  We are planning several days in NYC before the cruise from NJ.  Rescheduled for 2021. 

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by marieps