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RCL Share Price


Moby Jones
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1 hour ago, JimInBuffalo said:

MT Newswires 4/9: RCL stock has an average “hold” rating among analysts with a target price of $109. Price $40.22 +$2.66 (7.08%) as market close 4/9

Have to take those “target prices” with a grain of salt as well as the average “hold” rating.

 

Think about it...if the target price is a valid number, why would any of the analysts have anything but a Buy on this stock. The “hold” rating is suspect in its own right, as it is rare to hear of an analyst issuing a Sell recommendation. They all want to be a part of any potential securities deals with these companies, and issuing a Sell recommendation at any time certainly reduces your chances of being on the short list. You can bet that some analysts may have a hold rating on file, but they really mean sell.
 

I have often thought that many times, the word “analyst” should be pronounced with a “hard A” as opposed to a “soft A”.

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16 hours ago, zdad59 said:

I'll consider myself fortunate.    I bought a few weeks ago at $26 and change.    It popped to 42 in a few days where I put a stop limit order in for a 15% drop.    That stop limit triggered a few days later and my stake sold at ~$34, on its way back down.    So i banked a 30%ish gain.     When it tanked into the mid 20's again, I bought again.   It hit $40 again today, and I again put a stop limit on the shares.    If it keeps going up, great.   If it tanks, I have locked in another short term gain.

 

My view is that RCL is a trade right now, not an investment.    If you view it as an investment you may get hurt bad.    If you have a super long time horizon, you should eventually be ok unless they decide to restructure, then all bets are off.      If you play it as a short term trade, there is an opportunity to make a few bucks.

 

I like RCL as a company....a lot.   I think it's ell managed.    Its our go to cruise line, but this is a once in a lifetime event and no one can say with any certainly whats going to happen.   I have my opinions, but that and a dollar may get you a cup of coffee.   

I agree with your evaluation of this company as a trade. You are certainly smart to have a Stop Loss in place.

 

Be careful about relying on this Stop Loss as your total safety net. Remember, if the stock price plummets strongly for any reason, in a trading session, there is no guarantee that your stop loss will protect you at the price you have chosen for your downside protection.

 

Just a reminder.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Schmoe38 said:

Have to take those “target prices” with a grain of salt as well as the average “hold” rating.

 

Think about it...if the target price is a valid number, why would any of the analysts have anything but a Buy on this stock. The “hold” rating is suspect in its own right, as it is rare to hear of an analyst issuing a Sell recommendation. They all want to be a part of any potential securities deals with these companies, and issuing a Sell recommendation at any time certainly reduces your chances of being on the short list. You can bet that some analysts may have a hold rating on file, but they really mean sell.
 

I have often thought that many times, the word “analyst” should be pronounced with a “hard A” as opposed to a “soft A”.

Yes, I agree , all of the comments have to be taken in context. I am not a day-trader or any kind of expert in stocks. I bought Shares in Royal and Carnival because of the OBC that they offer for shareholders (The RCL dividend is also nice, if it stays). I had looked at buying years ago but the price never came down low enough to make it worthwhile. Hopefully, those perks won’t change (much) or if the stock goes up enough, I may sell the shares in excess of 100 each and leave the rest there.

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An article in the New York Times this morning notes interesting dynamics regarding the markets’ strong performance in light of the historic free fall in the economy. The article by Neil Irwin states “ Some of the strongest performers in the market rally have been the companies most severely affected by the Coronavirus crisis, like cruise lines, hotel chains and airlines. That suggests “short squeeze” dynamics in which a small upturn forced investors betting against those companies to close out their positions, turning the small rally into a large one”

He continues “Stock prices are always based on what the world will look like in the future, not the present. In the global financial crisis, stock prices bottomed out in April of 2009. The economy did not begin expanding again until July. But current market pricing suggests that investors are counting on a speedy rebound.”

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I have been a "lurker" on this thread - finding the information informative and helpful.

 

Of late, I have been "kicking myself" for not making a purchase when the shares were in the $20's. Now it is high $30's / low $40's. However, wonder what will happen Monday given the new CDC guidance. Just so confused...

 

At any rate, appreciate all the discussion here. Hopefully, some day we can return to the open seas. Wishing everyone a great weekend.

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1 hour ago, gw2fll said:

I have been a "lurker" on this thread - finding the information informative and helpful.

 

Of late, I have been "kicking myself" for not making a purchase when the shares were in the $20's. Now it is high $30's / low $40's. However, wonder what will happen Monday given the new CDC guidance. Just so confused...

 

At any rate, appreciate all the discussion here. Hopefully, some day we can return to the open seas. Wishing everyone a great weekend.


Hopefully in a few years it won’t make much of a difference if it was $20 or $35... 

 

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I am still short for June and buying more other puts for quicker dates on higher prices, My guess we wont be sailing out of US ports til first of September.  I also cant see the Kingdom buying up 10% stake with CCL on books.

 

We have already had 15Million people file for unemployment in US and I think we are going to see 10 Million more, people need money for houses, cars, and food before they fill up cruise ships.

 

Also the owner who was back filling debt died this week.

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/royal-caribbean-founder-dies-at-90/2218959/

 

US will be opening up to business soon with masks, no antibody tests, and no vaccinations.  They will not allow cruiselines in ports til we are further down the line.  

Again my cruise on celebrity was cancelled, I took the refund (still waiting) I got a RCL in September and November and have only paid the deposit so far.  I am guessing its 50/50 chance for me to go in September.

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I am curious, I assume those buying stock are not concerned about the possibility that a few of the cruise lines might go under or be consolidated. I am glad that there are still optimists around.... but I really do wonder about their ability to weather the storm... so to speak. The latest CDC 'request' that cruise lines present a plan for preventing and mitigating an outbreak with "limited reliance on state, local, and federal government support" has me concerned. I am not sure what a cruise line could do that wouldn't completely ruin their business model and compel such a price increase that would undermine demand. 

Until there is a vaccine (sufficient quantities say 2 years away), or an effective and easy to implement therapy... like a pill or two... the only 'plan' I can think of would encourage social distancing.... So perhaps sail half full to allow more social distancing in dining room and theaters (leave an empty seat or two between groups of guests?)... perhaps replace buffet with another dining room.... supply masks for passenger attending muster drill... elevators... forget about it.....  But how do you care for say 100 or more passengers or crew who get sick... who takes care of them... where do you care for them? How do you avoid pulling up to port and asking the local hospital to take on your passengers? Any thoughts on what they might put in their plan for the CDC? Alas, we are still learning about the virus... not sure how you come up with a plan given that it can be spread by those without symptoms... and while you can limit passengers you accept to healthy younger people... there have been enough healthy younger peopld getting it... that this is not guarantee and you really cut into your loyal passenger base... If they can crack the code shares will fly... but personally I would prefer to buy an Amazon or Alphabet... they will be here next year.. not sure all the cruise lines will be in their current configuration... given their debt and limited ability to cut costs while not operating... ships still have to run and be kept clean with some level of staffing...unlike some businesses...which can be shut down and lights turned out.  Interested in peoples thoughts about this. I love cruising ,,,in fact got off Reflection Mar 13 and have another one scheduled for Dec... but if I have to be bubble wrapped to sail... I might just stay home... or rent a condo someplace.

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My stop loss triggered today at $34.25.    So that yielded a nice short term profit.    I will look to buy again in the 20s if it goes there.     If we see July cruises getting cancelled, things might get sketchy.

#tradenotinvestment

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  • 3 weeks later...

Much discussion on the RC board today about the share price, up $6 on some debt relief in Germany, and perhaps spill over on Gilead.  The stock has nearly doubled in a few weeks.

Edited by marieps
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10 minutes ago, garyl62 said:

Sold today at 48. Watching it still, won't be surprised to see it back in the mid 30's in a couple weeks, but if not did ok on this run.

My basis is ~$31.  I have to figure the OBC into my equation as an extra dividend.

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On 4/9/2020 at 5:34 PM, zdad59 said:

I'll consider myself fortunate.    I bought a few weeks ago at $26 and change.    It popped to 42 in a few days where I put a stop limit order in for a 15% drop.    That stop limit triggered a few days later and my stake sold at ~$34, on its way back down.    So i banked a 30%ish gain.     When it tanked into the mid 20's again, I bought again.   It hit $40 again today, and I again put a stop limit on the shares.    If it keeps going up, great.   If it tanks, I have locked in another short term gain.

 

My view is that RCL is a trade right now, not an investment.    If you view it as an investment you may get hurt bad.    If you have a super long time horizon, you should eventually be ok unless they decide to restructure, then all bets are off.      If you play it as a short term trade, there is an opportunity to make a few bucks.

 

Agreed.  I made 40% in two weeks during late March buying CCL & RCL on the dip - then putting a 5% stop on it. But was too risk adverse to put much more than $4K in the trading. Still was nice to get a small offset against my significantly larger general market losses 😉

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1 hour ago, NantahalaCruiser said:

Agreed.  I made 40% in two weeks during late March buying CCL & RCL on the dip - then putting a 5% stop on it. But was too risk adverse to put much more than $4K in the trading. Still was nice to get a small offset against my significantly larger general market losses 😉

I've lost enough in your neighborhood at Valley River and Cherokee, nevermind the market!  

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1 hour ago, marieps said:

I've lost enough in your neighborhood at Valley River and Cherokee, nevermind the market!  

Yeah, I treat the casinos as an entertainment expense rather than an investment 🤨

 

My measure of success at a casino is how long I can continue playing before I have lost all my money!

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