RCL Stock

[Bradison]

2 minutes ago, Bradison said:

Thinking about looking into Disney as well.  Anyone ahead of me on that?

 

Looks like the 30 day history shows a drop from $139 to $93.  Drop of 33%.  I think they have the cash to weather the storm and could be a buyer if RCI folds.

[Bradison]

2 minutes ago, irzero said:

If I'm honest I'd rather buy shell oil.

The dividend is 15% and worth more than free credit on a cruise ship. Oil has a bigger chance of price recovery than cruise lines do at the moment.

If I wasnt sitting on a paper loss already on royal I'd correct my mistake

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Agreed on looking into Oil.  Their dip seems artificial but I haven't researched it enough.  My fear of that industry is just what is happening.  Strategic posturing and playing chicken offsets the normal market forces of a highly desirable commodity.  Love the dividends though.  I am not in the game nearly enough to playing the ins and outs of the day traders. 

[cruisingnewtoit]

10 minutes ago, Bradison said:

 

For me it is all about survival.  Your reasoning is all very sound and why I am about to pull the trigger.  I am waiting to see what the next 2 weeks bring and how RCI seems to be handling things.  If I can get the investor bennies and cash the shares in a couple of decades later I am confident this is a sound plan.  That all hinges on if they survive.

 

Thinking about looking into Disney as well.  Anyone ahead of me on that?

I'm buying Disney. I still haven't pulled the trigger on RCL I'm waiting for it to go down in the teens. 

[Bradison]

3 minutes ago, cruisingnewtoit said:

I'm buying Disney. I still haven't pulled the trigger on RCL I'm waiting for it to go down in the teens. 

 

Just looking at the ratios of the 2, it is not even close.  I am going to wait on RCI and look hard at the Mouse. 

[Ocean Boy]

20 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

So tell me if I have this right..........I put in to buy 100 shares, then put in the price that I want to buy it at, then select limit, day.

 

That's mean if the actual price of the stock would get there, it buys it automatically right, I wouldn't have to keep watching to pick it up right? is this correct?

 

I also assume that price I selected , the offer only lasts to the end of the day and then it is canceled if the price doesn't get to there. Is this correct?

You don't have to select day for the limit. If you are determined to buy you don't have to let it expire and it will automatically go through whenever your price is reached.

[Cavmedic]

Hopefully when all is said and done, people are over being "self isolated" and immediately book a cruise.

[Ocean Boy]

5 minutes ago, irzero said:

End of the day they have 1.3bln cash and credit to get through this storm.

On the up side they might have to offer some value and decent food on board in the near term to get people sailing again.

A renewed focus on customer service and value for money is exactly what this line needed. Nothing like a near death experience to remind you that customers can vote with their wallet any time they want.

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And once again, no one is chiming in and saying don't let the door hit you in the a$$. Now there really aren't a boat load of people just clamoring to take your place.

[PatMunits]

On 2/26/2020 at 3:46 PM, rimmit said:

unlikely to hit that now,  but the point is a reference for just how low it can go.   I believe the previous high when it went to 5.00 was around $30 or so at the time,  so it dropped down to 1/6 value.  RCI has half the ships then, but the point is that it’s a mass sell off in a recession.

 

If RCI has a ship with corona or the Caribbean gets corona it’s hard to say just how low it can go.

 

Its definitely not a bad buy now,  just be prepared for it to fall even more if you buy in now.

^^^ This. Thank you rimmit for this insight on how the stock behaved last time there was a crisis. You posted this observation when the stock was $82 three weeks ago. There were a few days since then when the price was up over 10% intraday, but I kept waiting because North America was still expecting more bad news.

My limit order just got filled for 200 shares @ 1/6 the price of 52-week high.

Is there a potential for another 40% drop? Sure, but then there are also good chances for a bankruptcy filing. The company itself will survive. The shareholders might get wiped out in the process but I'm now willing to take this chance. The news from China over the past two days are really good. I think we're less than six weeks away from the worst day of the pandemic in USA, which will take place weeks after China and Italy demonstrate that it's manageable albeit with great sufferings and loss of human life.

[cruisinfanatic]

2 hours ago, irzero said:

 

Id happily see my investment languish for a good while so royal can learn how to treat its customers again. I hope after all this ends they have to really struggle to get their customers back on board. 

 

 

Do you think that anyone cares what you think?

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

14 minutes ago, PatMunits said:

^^^ This. Thank you rimmit for this insight on how the stock behaved last time there was a crisis. You posted this observation when the stock was $82 three weeks ago. There were a few days since then when the price was up over 10% intraday, but I kept waiting because North America was still expecting more bad news.

My limit order just got filled for 200 shares @ 1/6 the price of 52-week high.

Is there a potential for another 40% drop? Sure, but then there are also good chances for a bankruptcy filing. The company itself will survive. The shareholders might get wiped out in the process but I'm now willing to take this chance. The news from China over the past two days are really good. I think we're less than six weeks away from the worst day of the pandemic in USA, which will take place weeks after China and Italy demonstrate that it's manageable albeit with great sufferings and loss of human life.

Last time I bought RCL stock was when the market plummeted several years ago. Did well. yesterday I took a look and bought at $28 for 100 now it dropped a lot today. That is fine. It will climb again. In the meantime I have two RCL cruises coming. The OBC is nice.

[Jam0610]

I will still wait. Stock dropped 25% so far today. Think low side will fall between $ 10.00 - $ 15.00. If they fail so start sailings after 30 days you will see huge cash flow decrease. Stock price below $ 10.00.

[AftMan]

This is almost as good as a tipping thread.

[grandgeezer]

3 hours ago, Jimbo said:

So tell me if I have this right..........I put in to buy 100 shares, then put in the price that I want to buy it at, then select limit, day.

 

That's mean if the actual price of the stock would get there, it buys it automatically right, I wouldn't have to keep watching to pick it up right? is this correct?

 

I also assume that price I selected , the offer only lasts to the end of the day and then it is canceled if the price doesn't get to there. Is this correct?

 

This is not actually correct. If the price of the stock gets to your offer price, you will get the stock IF there is enough stock offered  at that price. They can only sell the stock available so you might or night not get it. It's like some of other business say "limited quantities". Been there done that.

Also, I would suggest not buying for this just for the dividend, I'm sure it has to go before they can get any help from the government or anybody else. According to their financial statement, if the dividend holds as is they will pay out about $650,000,000 in 2020. Would you give free or low interest money that's paying a 11-12% dividend to it's shareholders?

[Jimbo]

20 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

 

This is not actually correct. If the price of the stock gets to your offer price, you will get the stock IF there is enough stock offered  at that price. They can only sell the stock available so you might or night not get it. It's like some of other business say "limited quantities". Been there done that.

Also, I would suggest not buying for this just for the dividend, I'm sure it has to go before they can get any help from the government or anybody else. According to their financial statement, if the dividend holds as is they will pay out about $650,000,000 in 2020. Would you give free or low interest money that's paying a 11-12% dividend to it's shareholders?

How do yo know how much is available?

[gkbiiii]

3 hours ago, Bradison said:

 

Agreed on looking into Oil.  Their dip seems artificial but I haven't researched it enough.  My fear of that industry is just what is happening.  Strategic posturing and playing chicken offsets the normal market forces of a highly desirable commodity.  Love the dividends though.  I am not in the game nearly enough to playing the ins and outs of the day traders. 

This is based on the lack of demand from China and the over production of Russia & Saudi.

[Biker19]

Below $20/ share, down 30%.

[Wahed]

I just purchased 200 shares.  20$ was my target.  100 to keep, 100 to sell later.

 

Hopefully i did a good thing.  Will see!

[Ocean Boy]

1 hour ago, irzero said:

Do you think anyone cares what you think either?

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I am curious, why did the UK, with its herd immunity, decide to close its schools?

[dwp10mm]

Lowered my buy order from $22 to $20.  That didn't take long. Another 100 shares.  I'm done buying unless it gets drastically lower.  Bankruptcy is my only risk at this point.  I'll let this ride a long time.

Edited March 18, 2020 by dwp10mm
spelling

[Wahed]

2 minutes ago, dwp10mm said:

Lowered my buy order from $22 to $20.  That didn't take long. Another 100 shares.  I'm done buying unless it gets drastically lower.  Bankruptcy is my only risk at this point.  I'll let this ride a long time.

 

I'm half tempted to pick up some more.  But to be honest this is my first stock purchase (outside of 401k & Roth).  So I'm treading lightly.

[Baron Barracuda]

4 hours ago, irzero said:

If I'm honest I'd rather buy shell oil.

The dividend is 15% and worth more than free credit on a cruise ship. Oil has a bigger chance of price recovery than cruise lines do at the moment.

If I wasnt sitting on a paper loss already on royal I'd correct my mistake

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Remember reading that since WWII Royal Dutch Shell has never cut dividend.  Shale oil players are highly leveraged and may not survive but deep pockets majors will weather the storm.

 

For RCL dividend is toast.  

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

5 minutes ago, irzero said:

Especially since oil hedges the price so crashes like this dont hurt as much and spikes in price dont benefit as much.

When they say sales have ground to a halt in the case of cruise ships that has never been more literal a definition.

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Well you know why Carnival is call the fun ship. It was a great day when the ship hit bottom. Same as the stock now. I hope it does not take long to hit bottom, then the only way is UP!

[rimmit]

2 hours ago, PatMunits said:

^^^ This. Thank you rimmit for this insight on how the stock behaved last time there was a crisis. You posted this observation when the stock was $82 three weeks ago. There were a few days since then when the price was up over 10% intraday, but I kept waiting because North America was still expecting more bad news.

Thanks.   I do not have a crystal ball and could have easily been just as wrong as I was right.   Looks like the stock still Has a bit to fall still.

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, Jimbo said:

How do yo know how much is available?

You don't, it is fluid, it changes all the time. You just get lucky I guess. I've been doing this for many years and there has been a few times the price got down to my bid and I didn't get it.

[ed01106]

37 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

I hope it does not take long to hit bottom, 

 

Me neither, but only because it won’t start climbing until the crisis is over.