RCL Stock

[RosieRoo]

Yogimax, that was the exact advice I got from my financial advisor, cost averaging. 

[bobmacliberty]

4 hours ago, yogimax said:

Very few of us, if any, are as skilled in market timing as Warren Buffett.

 

I get your very valid point, but Buffett didn't get rich from market timing...he's a buy and hold guy.  Technically, that's probably not true but that's his reputation.  I've read him say that he buys for specific reasons and then sells when those reasons are no longer true.  It just happens that this is usually over a longer time period.  He doesn't really time the market though.

 

[yogimax]

31 minutes ago, bobmacliberty said:

 

I get your very valid point, but Buffett didn't get rich from market timing...he's a buy and hold guy.  Technically, that's probably not true but that's his reputation.  I've read him say that he buys for specific reasons and then sells when those reasons are no longer true.  It just happens that this is usually over a longer time period.  He doesn't really time the market though.

 

Yes, that's correct.  I should have been more clear in my comment about Buffett.  Of course, this is precisely where Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) comes in.  It mitigates the risk of market timing.  Those who have said to go "all in" at this moment of time are taking that risk. They don't know the future.  What if the market drops significantly in the near term?  Loses will be sustained. 

 

Now let's be clear.  If a stock declines over the long term, everyone loses, but those who use DCA will fare better.  If a stock moves up and down (or down and up), you will do better by DCA.  The only scenario that would work against it is if the stock surges straight up with no corrections.  In this market with so much uncertainty (Coronavirus, Chinese trade deal, the election, lower profits in those sectors affected by the virus, possible global conflicts, etc.) that is highly unlikely.

 

Thank you for your comment and the chance it gives me to elaborate!

[Baron Barracuda]

7 hours ago, yogimax said:

Very few of us, if any, are as skilled in market timing as Warren Buffett.

 

 

 

I'm a big fan of Warren.  Plan to attend the Berkshire shareholders meeting in Omaha this year.  However he hasn't lived up to his reputation recently, uderperforming the market over the last 1, 5 and 10 years.  Held onto IBM way too long before giving up and taking a loss and admits Kraft Heinz was a big mistake.  Likes to hold a ton of cash on which he earns very little.  Also he has recently been investing heavily in airlines which are getting whacked almost as badly as cruise lines.

 

Wouldn't personally invest in any travel stock until the situation stabilizes.  This is a black swan event the depth and duration of which is unknown.  In a very short period of time Royal has had to cancel quite a few Asian sailings and with the problem spreading to Europe can't rule out the risk of additional cancellations.  In this environment don't think stock repurchases would be good idea.  In tough times better to conserve cash.  Remember Royal has over $8 billion in debt to service.  

Edited February 29, 2020 by Baron Barracuda

[Biker19]

37 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Remember Royal has over $8 billion in debt to service.  

From their annual SEC report:

 

[yogimax]

38 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

In a very short period of time Royal has had to cancel quite a few Asian sailings and with the problem spreading to Europe can't rule out the risk of additional cancellations.  In this environment don't think stock repurchases would be good idea.  In tough times better to conserve cash.  Remember Royal has over $8 billion in debt to service.  

Agree.  Royal needs to preserve cash.  Many stocks, including Royal, may also need to look at their dividends.

[The_Big_M]

18 hours ago, bobmacliberty said:

If Royal has the cash, they'd be smart to do a stock buy back.  Dropping prices are definitely an opportunity if you know where to look.  I don't...that's why I have a Wealth Manager.

 

A Roulette wheel with both a zero and a double zero gives the house a 5.3% edge.  That means, over time, you will lose $5.30 for every $100 you bet.  Doesn't matter what betting strategy you use.  Good for entertainment.  Not good for making money.

 

Royal won't "have the cash" though as they still have many expenses, including the biggest - finance costs - though revenue is going down.

[taglovestocruise]

Todays news.

Royal Caribbean: down 31%

All three of the largest cruise line operators have taken at least a 20% hit in February, and Royal Caribbean has been the hardest hit by surrendering nearly a third of its value. The headlines aren't kind for the industry. The quarantine of the Diamond Princess -- a non-Royal Caribbean ship -- is making folks uneasy to hit the open waters.

Cruise lines including Royal Caribbean have had to cancel some sailings, and the near-term fear is that the industry will need to discount aggressively to fill last-minute cabin openings. It's fair that cruise line operators are getting marked down, but Royal Caribbean -- consistently a top performer -- shouldn't be trading this low. Royal Caribbean boosted its dividend last year, lifting its yield to 2.9%. The stock has taken on water to the point where it's now yielding a hearty 3.9%, a payout that's easily covered by earnings with the stock trading at less than eight times its forward profit target. 

The tide will turn for cruise travel, and in the meantime investors can buy into the class act of the industry for a single-digit earnings multiple. A yield of nearly 4% will make the wait worthwhile. 

 

 

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, taglovestocruise said:

Todays news.

Royal Caribbean: down 31%

All three of the largest cruise line operators have taken at least a 20% hit in February, and Royal Caribbean has been the hardest hit by surrendering nearly a third of its value. The headlines aren't kind for the industry. The quarantine of the Diamond Princess -- a non-Royal Caribbean ship -- is making folks uneasy to hit the open waters.

Cruise lines including Royal Caribbean have had to cancel some sailings, and the near-term fear is that the industry will need to discount aggressively to fill last-minute cabin openings. It's fair that cruise line operators are getting marked down, but Royal Caribbean -- consistently a top performer -- shouldn't be trading this low. Royal Caribbean boosted its dividend last year, lifting its yield to 2.9%. The stock has taken on water to the point where it's now yielding a hearty 3.9%, a payout that's easily covered by earnings with the stock trading at less than eight times its forward profit target. 

The tide will turn for cruise travel, and in the meantime investors can buy into the class act of the industry for a single-digit earnings multiple. A yield of nearly 4% will make the wait worthwhile. 

 

 

 

I remember, reading last year when the stock was trading in the  $120-$125 range, how good of a deal that was and people should be buying, how'd that work out for you?  I just checked and my portfolio is down a little over 10%, a long way from 31%.

It finished up almost 30% last year so I'm still ahead of the game.

[rimmit]

1 hour ago, grandgeezer said:

 

I remember, reading last year when the stock was trading in the  $120-$125 range, how good of a deal that was and people should be buying, how'd that work out for you?  I just checked and my portfolio is down a little over 10%, a long way from 31%.

It finished up almost 30% last year so I'm still ahead of the game.

well,  a case around Tampa and also Sarasota now.  Could be another fun week for RCI stock.

[frank808]

On 2/29/2020 at 9:32 AM, bobmacliberty said:

 

I get your very valid point, but Buffett didn't get rich from market timing...he's a buy and hold guy.  Technically, that's probably not true but that's his reputation.  I've read him say that he buys for specific reasons and then sells when those reasons are no longer true.  It just happens that this is usually over a longer time period.  He doesn't really time the market though.

 

My favorite Warren Buffet quote that I have used as my investing principle. 

"Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful".  

Has worked very well for me. Used it for the first time when I started investing in stocks during 1990's.  I also only invest in what I know.  With that last statement, I missed out on some great companies like Amazon but did ok with Ebay and others.  

 

Unfortunately first cruise was in 2015 so missed out on Royal stock in the single digits.  Although one of my best investments has been buying Costco at $6 a share back in 1996 pre split.  Last used this during the 2009 recession and housing collapse.  

 

What has worked in the past does not guarantee future returns.  Though that principle has worked for me these past 30 years.  

 

I am also waiting to buy Royal stock if it drops into the 50's.  And I am thinking if this covid19 lasts, it should happen.  

[yogimax]

13 hours ago, taglovestocruise said:

Todays news.

Royal Caribbean: down 31%

 Royal Caribbean boosted its dividend last year, lifting its yield to 2.9%. The stock has taken on water to the point where it's now yielding a hearty 3.9%, a payout that's easily covered by earnings with the stock trading at less than eight times its forward profit target. 

The tide will turn for cruise travel, and in the meantime investors can buy into the class act of the industry for a single-digit earnings multiple. A yield of nearly 4% will make the wait worthwhile. 

 

 

This makes the assumption that RCCL will maintain the current dividend.  Don't count on it.  As bookings slow, fixed costs remain the same and growth plans become more unrealistic, the company will need more cash.  Where's it coming from?  The stockholders.  First to be cut may be the dividend!

[Wine-O]

6 hours ago, yogimax said:

This makes the assumption that RCCL will maintain the current dividend.  Don't count on it.  As bookings slow, fixed costs remain the same and growth plans become more unrealistic, the company will need more cash.  Where's it coming from?  The stockholders.  First to be cut may be the dividend!

Stocks went up close to 1300 today, but RCL stock only went up 15 cents.  🍷

[yogimax]

25 minutes ago, Wine-O said:

Stocks went up close to 1300 today, but RCL stock only went up 15 cents.  🍷

What is happening is that many investors are shifting their assets from travel stocks (for fear of the coronavirus) to stay-at-home stocks.

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, Wine-O said:

Stocks went up close to 1300 today, but RCL stock only went up 15 cents.  🍷

 

1 hour ago, Wine-O said:

Stocks went up close to 1300 today, but RCL stock only went up 15 cents.  🍷

At least it had a nice rebound, earlier it was down about $4.50.

The stock market as a whole (S&P 500) was up 4.6%.

YTD, Royal Caribbean stock  -39.66%. S&P 500  -4.35%. What happens next is anybody’s guess, but I feel a lot better being in the market without a big exposure in RCL.

[SherriZ366]

Video from RCCL CEO Richard Fain.

 

[bobmacliberty]

Good video from Richard Fain.  Recognizes that Coronavirus is serious but is not the end of the world.  Gives the bigger picture perspective that we will ride out this storm as always happens.

[Ocean Boy]

I think, at least for the next few months,  RCI might have a renewed appreciation for the Diamonds, Diamond Plus, and Pinnacles over crowding  those lounges.😉🙂

[The_Big_M]

Don't find it a very good video, just platitudes and clichés so comes across as just a corporate feelgood rather than offering any insight or actual relevance.

[Ocean Boy]

2 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

Don't find it a very good video, just platitudes and clichés so comes across as just a corporate feelgood rather than offering any insight or actual relevance.

But... "we are all in this together"... made me chuckle.

[island lady]

Well...have never purchased RCI stock before, but since it is down so far now....decided to buy 121 shares.  My broker thinks I am nuts and advised against it.  But..."eh"...I told him it will be my "pet stock".  I figure I pay that much for a couple of cruises with nothing to show for it later...so what the heck.  😉 

[island lady]

On 2/26/2020 at 3:33 PM, davelinde said:

We own 100 shares each of RCL and Carnival - both offer shareholder benefits in the form of OBC.

Glad I never look at the price of either....

 

I need to figure out how to cash in that perk.  Thanks for the heads up...brand new stock holder here.  🙂  Never mind...I found the link and book marked it.  Thanks!   

Edited March 3, 2020 by island lady

[Nado44]

13 hours ago, yogimax said:

What is happening is that many investors are shifting their assets from travel stocks (for fear of the coronavirus) to stay-at-home stocks.

 

We're likely to bail from our March and July cruises if the situation doesn't improve. And stay at home. Hate to be the contrarian but I think the stock will continue its downward trend for a good while. So many others have to be in the same, precarious "to go or not to go" position. For us, the risk isn't worth it as we have work and family responsibilities to maintain. And those who are older and retired are at greater risk according to reports.

[Goodtime Cruizin]

I think it slowly trends downward, almost sideways for a few months to about 52ish.  It has pretty solid support there. But it’ll be a decent trading stock and/or a short position for awhile. The only thing that moves this back up is good news on CV. 
 

it’s time to start watching for some serious cruise bargains too. They will be hard and fast coming soon. 

[Baron Barracuda]

Hard to be positive on cruise stocks with all the negative press coverage.  It's not just the pundits.  Every day I see prominent doctors on tv speaking cautiously about flying and cruising.  Yesterday it was Dr. Zeke Emanuel from Penn on CNBC.  Cruise cheerleaders on these boards might be unfazed but the general public is likely scared stiff.