Carnival Stock Price Dropping

[ed01106]

16 minutes ago, Griller said:

Yes its true, but trying to time the market is futile

 

 

Yes and no.  Timing the exact bottom is impossible.  But waiting until the virus stabilizes, cruises stop getting disrupted, etc. And then buying you would be buying a few dollars above the bottom but with much less risk of seeing your investment drop significantly.  I plan to buy on the way up.  I won’t be buying at the absolute bottom as I won’t even consider buying until it is 10% above its low.  

 

Also I am in no rush for OBC.  I am not cruising until the risk of being denied disembarkation due to quarantine subsidies.  

Edited March 6, 2020 by ed01106

[Colo Cruiser]

23 minutes ago, Rigby the Dog said:

But that's not true.  If I buy 100 shares at $33 per share and it goes down to $28 three days later, that $500 difference would now buy me another 17 or 18 shares - or i would have saved $500 by waiting three days.

Do nothing, nothing happens.

[satxdiver]

My crystal ball is hazy there days as to when any stock has bottomed out. 

[Colo Cruiser]

8 minutes ago, satxdiver said:

My crystal ball is hazy there days as to when any stock has bottomed out. 

Don’t blink.

[Wheelhouse]

This reuters report certainly won't help the stock price.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cruiseships-exclus/exclusive-u-s-considering-discouraging-some-travelers-from-cruises-sources-idUSKBN20T29M

 

 

[Daniel A]

2 hours ago, Colo Cruiser said:

As I said before most buy for the OBC not the investment and as stated above there is no loss until you sell.

 

 

2 hours ago, ed01106 said:

You have said that multiple time.  It is a blatantly false statement. Most of the stock is owned by institutions (banks, mutual funds, pension funds, etc)  who purchase it looking for ROI from dividends and stock appreciation.Repeating a false statement multiple times doesn’t make it any less false.

I think that there are many more individual investors who buy for the OBC than there are individual institutions that own CCL.  You are saying that the large majority of shares are owned by institutions.  I believe Colo Cruiser is absolutely correct when he states there are more investors that want the OBC.  Because you misunderstood what Colo Cruiser was saying doesn't make him wrong and you right.

[ed01106]

39 minutes ago, CarelessAndConfused said:

Here's the way to get the OBC if you do not want to take any risk owning the stock. 

 

1) Buy the stock

2) Seconds later, sell the stock

3) A day later, print the buy trade confirmation and fax it in with a list of the cruises you are requesting OBC for

 

 

 

I wonder to what extent CCL and the other lines verify the applications for OBC to make sure ownership is still current.  Wouldn’t be that hard the corporation has a record of all owners.

[Daniel A]

42 minutes ago, CarelessAndConfused said:

Here's the way to get the OBC if you do not want to take any risk owning the stock. 

 

1) Buy the stock

2) Seconds later, sell the stock

3) A day later, print the buy trade confirmation and fax it in with a list of the cruises you are requesting OBC for

Nice... 

[Rigby the Dog]

1 hour ago, Colo Cruiser said:

Do nothing, nothing happens.

Except that at this moment I've saved another $100 from Monday on 100 shares. 

[Rigby the Dog]

1 hour ago, ed01106 said:

Yes and no.  Timing the exact bottom is impossible.  But waiting until the virus stabilizes, cruises stop getting disrupted, etc. And then buying you would be buying a few dollars above the bottom but with much less risk of seeing your investment drop significantly.  I plan to buy on the way up.  I won’t be buying at the absolute bottom as I won’t even consider buying until it is 10% above its low.  

 

Also I am in no rush for OBC.  I am not cruising until the risk of being denied disembarkation due to quarantine subsidies.  

Exactly.

[Griller]

8 minutes ago, Rigby the Dog said:

Except that at this moment I've saved another $100 from Monday on 100 shares. 

What are you going to do with the $100 you saved?

 

If you used it to book a cruise then the cruise might go down on price?

[geocruiser]

$26.92 now.

[Colo Cruiser]

16 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

Nice... 

And a great way to get banned from sailing all Carnival Corp ships and possible be charged with a crime.

[AL3XCruise]

30 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

I think that there are many more individual investors who buy for the OBC than there are individual institutions that own CCL.  You are saying that the large majority of shares are owned by institutions.  I believe Colo Cruiser is absolutely correct when he states there are more investors that want the OBC.  Because you misunderstood what Colo Cruiser was saying doesn't make him wrong and you right.

Of course there are more individuals; but how much does that matter?  87% of the stock is held by institutions, meaning they own the vast majority of the company.  While the remaining stock holders aren't inconsequential, I think we all know who has the board's ear.  How exactly that plays out, though, none of us can say at the moment.  

 

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by AL3XCruise

[Colo Cruiser]

Just now, CarelessAndConfused said:

 

I guess that also applies to everyone who cashes out their OBC at the casino as well.  Save the histrionics, there is no crime here.

Good luck.   👍

[caribill]

30 minutes ago, CarelessAndConfused said:

 

No because the vast majority of "retail" (individuals like us) are held electronically in brokerage accounts so they couldn't confirm anyone's name.  Fidelity for example, would be the "book" owner for shares held by thousands of different individuals.

 

 

Which is why the IHG hotel group only provides a discount for shareholders who have the stock registered in their own name.

 

Princess used to require that proof of CCL ownership be from a statement or purchase confirmation dated no earlier than three months before the cruise. Princess dropped that requirement when they started requiring payment for shore excursions at the time they were reserved instead of being added to the onboard account. Many who have the CCL stock OBC use that towards shore excursion payment and raised a big stink which at that time caused Princess to drop the three month requirement so these stock holders could utilize the OBC for paying for shore excursions pre-cruise.

[Thrak]

1 hour ago, CarelessAndConfused said:

 

I guess that also applies to everyone who cashes out their OBC at the casino as well.  Save the histrionics, there is no crime here.

 

Actually, "intent to defraud" is a crime.

[Rigby the Dog]

1 hour ago, Griller said:

What are you going to do with the $100 you saved?

 

If you used it to book a cruise then the cruise might go down on price?

Well, it's $600 now - remember that I saved $500 already by not buying Monday.

 

So, I'll buy an ounce of Marijuana and a nice steak dinner at Peter Luger's.  The next day I'll call Princess and get the lower fare.

 

(This post will disappear within five minutes because, apparently, only certain people are allowed to post)

[NorthwestCruiser]

I'm pretty sure that Carnival doesn't lose any money due to the OBC program.   If some marketing wizard could figure out a way to offer everybody $500 in OBC that would guarantee a %15 rise in bookings they would do it in a heartbeat.   Credit is not the same as cost; I'd happily give you a credit for $100 a bottle if you are paying $200 for something that I bought for $20...

[purpleally]

2 hours ago, geocruiser said:

$26.92 now.

Damn. Bought at 31

[geocruiser]

12 minutes ago, purpleally said:

Damn. Bought at 31

Still a good buy $ 31.  Enjoy your future OBC.

[Thrak]

$26.79. Fluctuating. If you simply Google "ccl stock price" you will get the current price and it automagically updates about every 10 seconds without having to refresh the page.

[Kenswing]

When they come back with positive test results from the Grand, Monday will be another blood bath.  I'm waiting for the teens before I buy again. 

[Farts]

9 minutes ago, Kenswing said:

When they come back with positive test results from the Grand, Monday will be another blood bath.  I'm waiting for the teens before I buy again. 

Over the weekend, pence will meet with the cruise industry too. let's see what happens then too.

[ed01106]

7 minutes ago, Kenswing said:

When they come back with positive test results from the Grand, Monday will be another blood bath.  I'm waiting for the teens before I buy again. 

I am bearish on the stock but NOT that pessimistic.  

 

My analysis is *if* the test results are positive it will hurt the stock by a few dollars, but *if* they are negative it will only help the stock by a few pennies.  More downside then upside.