Carnival Stock Price Dropping

[AL3XCruise]

1 hour ago, ed01106 said:

That has nothing to do with liquidity, which is what CCL needs to worry about at the moment.  The problem for CCL is short term liabilities compared to cash.  

For their last fiscal year, the net cash flow was poor.  However, when you consider that was after $1.4 billion in dividends and $600 million in stock repurchasing, they have some cushion before they can't pay short term debt.  Even if Net Income does drop by $2+ billion, I doubt they will have trouble finding financing.  At the moment I don't see any evidence the cruise industry is going to evaporate in the long term, and there is going to be someone willing to provide capital in the short term.  It could be expensive, but it will be there.

 

In addition to the general travel slowdown's impact on revenue, the stock price is likely reflecting concerns about cut dividends and expensive financing driving down profits in years to come.  I don't seen any evidence of bankruptcy driving investors to sell.

 

1 hour ago, oskidunker said:

This has been going on for many years. I would think they would want people to buy the stock so I doubt they cancel the benefit.

 

Considering 87% of CCL stock is currently held by institutional investors, I have a feeling they will prioritize dividends over OBC if it comes down to it.  But we just don't know how tightly CCL will need to reign things in yet.

 

[rbrad3]

sold at 48 will rebuy at 19.85

[RMMariner]

We bought in at around $45. So we have taken a  bit of a paper loss. The nice thing is how much can you really lose if you only bought a hundred shares.

 

I would think at this time both the dividend and the OBC may be in trouble for a while. Carnival is going to be hurting for cash flow.

 

I started thinking of cost averaging down, but I can't really see a bottom at this point. I agree, I don't see bankruptcy as an problem at this point, but it is certainly going be an ugly ride for the foreseeable future.

 

 

 

[mcrcruiser]

The cruise lines require huge cash flows to operate . As more & more people cancel their cruises  the cash flow shrinks . now think of the  vendors who supply the cruise lines .They will press for guarantees of payment  .

[mcrcruiser]

Personally I would not touch any stock during this time  . i won't get wealthy in the stock market ;but ,i won;t loose  either  .I do own precious metals  for quite some time & they are performing very nicely 

Edited March 6, 2020 by mcrcruiser

[mcrcruiser]

For Friday March 6 ,2020   the  Dow ,S&P & Nasdq  futures  indexes are all in the red big  time .Cruise lines stocks will get hammered again 

Edited March 6, 2020 by mcrcruiser

[Justalone]

I bought more gold bars 2 weeks ago.  Glad I did.

[Stateroom_Sailor]

7 hours ago, Griller said:

Carnival Debt/Equity ratio   0 .38

NCL                                         1.04

Royal Caribbean                    0.74

 

Carnival's debt is regarded as "conservatively managed"

 

Figures are from end of 2019

 

Low numbers good - higher numbers bad.

 

Makes me wonder where MSC is with their aggressive expansion.  Wonderful start to Virgin Voyages.

 

I've always thought that these mass market lines were exanding too aggressively these past 10 years, as if cruising trends and bull market would never end.

[caribill]

10 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

when any company has to decide whether to pay their debt  on time or pay dividends the choice they make is a easy one  & that is to pay their debt so they don't go into foreclosure or need to file bankruptcy 

 

Some companies have borrowed money to cover the dividend, thus increasing debt but keeping stockholders happy.

[caribill]

8 hours ago, CruiseVA said:

I already have RCL & CCL, looking at NCL now in case we sail on one of their lines.  IHG is a deal, and, you get access to deals on hotel rooms, I'm just not sure how many shares you need.

 

No obvious minimum number of shares requirement. Stock must be registered in your name, so you must own it directly, not part of a brokerage account. Reservations must be paid in full when made and are non-refundable if cancelled or dates changed.

[Rigby the Dog]

11 hours ago, blloydtbird said:

Purchased 100 shares on Monday, faxed the required information over to Princess at 2:32pm today, $250 OBC now posted to my account. I’m good with it. 

Except that it cost you $500 to get the $250 OBC.  The stock has dropped approx $5.00 a share since Monday.  But I guess as long as you are good with it . . .

[Iamcruzin]

I might consider buying it if it drops to the teens like it did in 2008.  We have been sailing more with RCL lately  and their stock is still too rich for my blood.   As a side note the large NY hospital where DW works has suspended domestic and overseas travel. You can still go on vacation but you have to register and be prepared to  be quarantined for 14 days without pay if they decide that where you traveled to and from was a risk. All business travel has been canceled as well. Now business as well as leisure travel in being hit. My son is graduating in June in Florida and DW may not be able to attend if this restriction is still enforced. I would imagine that hotels will be looking for guests as well as car rental companies.

[blloydtbird]

1 hour ago, Rigby the Dog said:

Except that it cost you $500 to get the $250 OBC.  The stock has dropped approx $5.00 a share since Monday.  But I guess as long as you are good with it . . .

Hasn’t cost me anything actually, I only lose if I were to sell, I’m sure you are aware of that though.  I am confident that the stock will bounce back well before I reach retirement age, more than a quarter century from now.  As part of my ira portfolio, I chose this stock. If you are closer to retirement age or in desperate need of cash, avoid it no question. For me, I am fine with the investment. If CCL goes bankrupt, so be it. I’ll lose $3,200, I’ll be fine. If they don’t, I’ll be fine as well. If they continue paying the OBC and the dividend, I’m in a net positive situation unless I need to sell right now. I don’t and I can’t touch these funds for a long time. 
 

Finally, I’m not encouraging anyone else to buy the stock, merely showing that the OBC is still in effect as there were questions raised about that. 

 

So yes, I’m good with it. 
 

Cheers 

[Rigby the Dog]

5 minutes ago, blloydtbird said:

Hasn’t cost me anything actually, I only lose if I were to sell, I’m sure you are aware of that though.  I am confident that the stock will bounce back well before I reach retirement age, more than a quarter century from now.  As part of my ira portfolio, I chose this stock. If you are closer to retirement age or in desperate need of cash, avoid it no question. For me, I am fine with the investment. If CCL goes bankrupt, so be it. I’ll lose $3,200, I’ll be fine. If they don’t, I’ll be fine as well. If they continue paying the OBC and the dividend, I’m in a net positive situation unless I need to sell right now. I don’t and I can’t touch these funds for a long time. 
 

Finally, I’m not encouraging anyone else to buy the stock, merely showing that the OBC is still in effect as there were questions raised about that. 

 

So yes, I’m good with it. 
 

Cheers 

I hear you - and my life situation is similar to yours; albeit maybe 10 years closer to retirement date than yours.

 

I too have been following the stock and was waiting for $35 per share, then $33 - I kept holding off.  And now I'm waiting for the bottom.  However, this won't be part of my 401k.  And, for the moment, our next cruise isn't until November so I have time to watch it dip.

 

Enjoy your cruise man.

[Daniel A]

13 hours ago, blondee419 said:

Is there always a cut off date in that letter?  according to the link, https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

"Reservations must be made by February 28, 2021."

It doesn't appear that there is any intention to discontinue the OBC.  Carnival has updated that shareholder benefit announcement because it does now say "February 28, 2021."  Last week there was an error and it said "February 29, 2021."  So they must have taken down the post containing the error and put up a new announcement of the benefit with the date correction. 

[Farts]

20 hours ago, Griller said:

31st October 2008

Did they suspend the OBC too at that time?

[Griller]

10 minutes ago, Farts said:

Did they suspend the OBC too at that time?

 

No I don't think they ever have, its always been renewed annually as long as I can remember.

I think it probably brings more money in than it costs

Have to consider onboard spend which is all important these days in cruiseline profitability

 

I'd like to see more OBC for larger blocks of share ownership. Like double OBC for 1000 shares?

Edited March 6, 2020 by Griller

[Colo Cruiser]

13 minutes ago, Farts said:

Did they suspend the OBC too at that time?

No.

[Colo Cruiser]

3 hours ago, Rigby the Dog said:

Except that it cost you $500 to get the $250 OBC.  The stock has dropped approx $5.00 a share since Monday.  But I guess as long as you are good with it . . .

As I said before most buy for the OBC not the investment and as stated above there is no loss until you sell.

 

[ed01106]

10 minutes ago, Colo Cruiser said:

As I said before most buy for the OBC not the investment

 

 

You have said that multiple time.  It is a blatantly false statement. Most of the stock is owned by institutions (banks, mutual funds, pension funds, etc)  who purchase it looking for ROI from dividends and stock appreciation.Repeating a false statement multiple times doesn’t make it any less false.

Edited March 6, 2020 by ed01106

[Colo Cruiser]

7 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

You have said that multiple time.  It is a blatantly false statement. Most of the stock is owned by institutions (banks, mutual funds, pension funds, etc)  who purchase it looking for ROI from dividends and stock appreciation.Repeating a false statement multiple times doesn’t make it any less false.

Talking about Cruise Critic.

As I said before most buy for the OBC not the investment.

Take a chill pill.

[Griller]

31 minutes ago, Colo Cruiser said:

Talking about Cruise Critic.

As I said before most buy for the OBC not the investment.

Take a chill pill.

I think its true that out of the individual l holders of CCL stock that a huge number of them have bought just 100 to get the OBC

But institutional investors own most of the stock.

And unfortunately their computers seem to panic easily and put a sell order in

I know my bank SunTrust own a big chunk on behalf of investors.

 

And the Arison family still own quite a bit one way and another,  if we are hurting with the stock halving in value then Michael Arison must be experiencing the death of a thousand knives right now.

I

[Colo Cruiser]

3 minutes ago, Griller said:

I think its true that out of the individual l holders of CCL stock that a huge number of them have bought just 100 to get the OBC

But institutional investors own most of the stock.

And unfortunately their computers seem to panic easily and put a sell order in

I know my bank SunTrust own a big chunk on behalf of investors.

 

And the Arison family still own quite a bit one way and another,  if we are hurting with the stock halving in value then Michael Arison must be experiencing the death of a thousand knives right now.

I

Thats great but I don't care who else owns it.

Just give me the OBC.

[Rigby the Dog]

1 hour ago, Colo Cruiser said:

As I said before most buy for the OBC not the investment and as stated above there is no loss until you sell.

 

But that's not true.  If I buy 100 shares at $33 per share and it goes down to $28 three days later, that $500 difference would now buy me another 17 or 18 shares - or i would have saved $500 by waiting three days.

[Griller]

5 minutes ago, Rigby the Dog said:

But that's not true.  If I buy 100 shares at $33 per share and it goes down to $28 three days later, that $500 difference would now buy me another 17 or 18 shares - or i would have saved $500 by waiting three days.

Yes its true, but trying to time the market is futile

 

Just bite the bullet when it seems reasonable to buy 100 and keep on getting the tax free OBC cruise after cruise until your OBC exceeds your initial purchase cost and then you're really in profit even though you haven't sold

 

At current rates if you get 12 x 14day OBC your stock will be paid for.

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by Griller