NCLH Stock Price

[Isabella Benjamin]

36 minutes ago, BoundForSea said:

Seven Short Blasts Followed by one Long is what I think Im hearing!!! 😂

 

Airlines and Cruise Lines have been living fat again, and most have long since forgotten the post 9-11 economic era for travel. This came out of nowhere for them all. Airlines have massive orders for jets that cant be delayed (most have pushed back those options as long as possible already and the lessors are holding their feet to the fires), NCL and RCL have all new very expensive equipment, and more on the way. 

 

NCL got big for their britches and as one post just said sold out their loyal past customers for new customers and pricing that had no ceiling (Haven for 16000+ for 7 nights in Alaska!!!) because they could. 

 

The Govt will provide assistance is my guess, but not to the level they need. NCL has indeed secured financing to get through the near term storm, however if they close ports and markets, Chapter 11 will be the vehicle to get them free of past debt and back on their feet. 

 

Lesson: Never say never. 

Which government?  They aren't US companies, so it would be a hard sell to the American families that are already struggling to put any tax dollars towards a company that employs only the occasional  US employee.  They don't get to flag their ships under other countries and not go by US regulations, and then get a hand out from our government.  I realize it affects the tourist industry in port cities, but help those US cities, not the cruise industry. 

[LMaxwell]

3 minutes ago, Isabella Benjamin said:

Which government?  They aren't US companies, so it would be a hard sell to the American families that are already struggling to put any tax dollars towards a company that employs only the occasional  US employee.  They don't get to flag their ships under other countries and not go by US regulations, and then get a hand out from our government.  I realize it affects the tourist industry in port cities, but help those US cities, not the cruise industry. 

This.  The industry has spent enormous sums lobbying our government for lax regulations for years, and the companies flag in nations of convenience for low taxes and more lax regulations. 

 

The ones that are going to be hurt are hotels, restaurants, tourist attractions, and their hourly employees that can't afford pay or time cut....heck, Florida pretty much only exists as a tourism support network.  We don't have any major industry or export here.  We have commercial shipping ports, beaches, cruise ships, swamps, and the Mouse House (and other theme parks because OF the Mouse House).  When consumers are directed away from air and cruise travel and elect to stay home they are not spending money in Florida.  Florida does not have a state income tax because they generate so much from sales tax on out of state tourists. 

 

So it's not just cruise lines that could face a cash flow problem...  

 

It's an election year.  Certain someone needs Florida. I'd pretty much bank on a workers stimulus plan soon.  We're just borrowing more from future us anyways all the time, so what can go wrong? 

[Regguy]

3 hours ago, LMaxwell said:

 

Nobody really knows what "this" entails.  This isn't money needed for capital investment. This is a line to hedge against cash flow restrictions to pay workers, vendors, and ship maintenance.  

 

You think this is good? That they doubled their liquidity line on the same day Hawaii calls for a 60 day cruise moratorium is no coincidence. 

No, it isn’t good at all.  None of this is good.  I have been the guy saying I thought the stock going to zero and Chapter 11 seemed to be a significant possibility.  I am the one that has been saying that trying to borrow from your customers by pretending these FCCs are something other than highly contingent interest free unsecured loans is unsustainable.

 

But this is the first news that makes me think NCL will not go down without a fight and it is a decent reminder that despite their debts they are not without options and assets.

[CroozFanatic]

10 hours ago, cementhands said:

The cruise lines have to come up with alternative uses of ships in the near future. Maybe vacation to their private island. Absolute testing before boarding. Theme parties cruises. Rock band cruises. USA ports only. It’s time for invention. East Coast Cruise with overnights in big cities. They’ve got to survive. Be creative. Joint venture with Canada and Bermuda. Short term solution. 

 

COVID-19 hospitals

[dexddd]

Yep, tossed loyal customers to the side, for your convenience, of course.  New cruisers going to be scared off. Regulars can reasonably evaluate the industry and asses risk and plan accordingly.

[Farts]

1 hour ago, dexddd said:

Yep, tossed loyal customers to the side, for your convenience, of course.  New cruisers going to be scared off. Regulars can reasonably evaluate the industry and asses risk and plan accordingly.

LOL!

 

Hawaii govt is calling for a ban of cruising for 60 days. so maybe the stock will take another hit today.

[rabidstoat]

I am watching cruise stock prices continue to plummet. NCL is down below $18.50, an almost 70% drop year to date. 

[rabidstoat]

Sigh, duplicate, my connection is bad.

 

Though NCL dropped from $18.48 to $18.20 while I was posting this. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by rabidstoat
Duplicate post

[ColeThornton]

4 minutes ago, rabidstoat said:

I am watching cruise stock prices continue to plummet. NCL is down below $18.50, an almost 70% drop year to date. 

 

 

Just noticed RCL is down another 12% also.     Buying opportunities in the near future?

[roger001]

4 minutes ago, rabidstoat said:

I am watching cruise stock prices continue to plummet. NCL is down below $18.50, an almost 70% drop year to date. 

I have a corporate/bankruptcy lawyer nephew who monitors this.  When I mentioned NCL's present stock drop, he replied with the following....And...he isn't even charging me $700 and hour to tell me this....at least I don't think so.     

 

Yes they will have no choice but to shed their debt via chapter 11.  Likely they will wait to get debt at its max before filing.  They are a good candidate for what us called a “pre-packaged” bankruptcy meaning they file their restructuring plan at the get go and are out of bankruptcy in 90 days.

 

[cementhands]

Ford and Chevrolet had government bailout.
Maybe the cruise industry will too!

Plus airlines, Disney, etc....

[roger001]

48 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

 

 

Just noticed RCL is down another 12% also.     Buying opportunities in the near future?

RCL has suddenly bounced back thirteen bucks in the last hour.  Somebody is definitely buying and selling.  

[Georgia_Peaches]

Just bought a 100 shares when it hit a low of $17.12 this morning. Has since bounced back up to just around $20.  

[ColeThornton]

3 minutes ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

Just bought a 100 shares when it hit a low of $17.12 this morning. Has since bounced back up to just around $20.  

 

 

That's one heck of a bargain price.

[Lupush]

It's going to go lower.  I wouldn't doubt 2008 recession like levels of $8-$10 a share.

[oteixeira]

2 minutes ago, Lupush said:

It's going to go lower.  I wouldn't doubt 2008 recession like levels of $8-$10 a share.

Ummmm, NCLH wasn't publicly traded until 2013, so how can you be saying this?

[Lupush]

Just now, oteixeira said:

Ummmm, NCLH wasn't publicly traded until 2013, so how can you be saying this?

Fair enough.  I should have stated I was using Royal and Carnival as my examples. 

 

[Farts]

1 hour ago, roger001 said:

I have a corporate/bankruptcy lawyer nephew who monitors this.  When I mentioned NCL's present stock drop, he replied with the following....And...he isn't even charging me $700 and hour to tell me this....at least I don't think so.     

 

Yes they will have no choice but to shed their debt via chapter 11.  Likely they will wait to get debt at its max before filing.  They are a good candidate for what us called a “pre-packaged” bankruptcy meaning they file their restructuring plan at the get go and are out of bankruptcy in 90 days.

 

I feel like that is where nclh is heading. what a shame since it's my favorite cruise line.

 

I have a cruise next deposit onboard. fml. one of my guest who bought it will be so UPSET about losing it.

[Trimone]

Waiting with automatic purchase at $15

[AL3XCruise]

4 hours ago, Farts said:

Hawaii govt is calling for a ban of cruising for 60 days. so maybe the stock will take another hit today.

 

Hawaii doesn't have the authority to implement such a ban; it would need to be done at the Federal level.  If they did step in, I don't see why they would limit the action to just Hawaii.  Thus, I don't think comments from the Hawaii government will have any impact on top of others who are already clamoring for government action.

 

1 hour ago, roger001 said:

Yes they will have no choice but to shed their debt via chapter 11.  Likely they will wait to get debt at its max before filing.  They are a good candidate for what us called a “pre-packaged” bankruptcy meaning they file their restructuring plan at the get go and are out of bankruptcy in 90 days.

While I respect the expertise, I tend to think it is a little early to say they will have no choice.  We really don't know how long this will continue, or how long people will be hesitant to cruise after the immediate threat has faded.  The last financials from NCLH definitely don't look great in terms of withstanding a decline in cash flow, but they have already secured substantial additional credit.  That suggests at least some lenders are inclined to believe in the industry's viability.  After all, I doubt anyone who thinks cruising is in for an extended downturn would secure a loan using a ship.

 

All of that said, CCL and RCCL have stronger balance sheets.  If I was going to try and make some cash from a market rebound, I'd probably look to them first.

[LMaxwell]

1 hour ago, cementhands said:

Ford and Chevrolet had government bailout.
Maybe the cruise industry will too!

Plus airlines, Disney, etc....

Ford did not get government bailouts not did they go through bankruptcy

[Lupush]

19 minutes ago, Farts said:

I feel like that is where nclh is heading. what a shame since it's my favorite cruise line.

 

I have a cruise next deposit onboard. fml. one of my guest who bought it will be so UPSET about losing it.

A bank would not issue a $675 million loan if Chapter 11 was imminent.  3 weeks ago NCL stock and earnings were at an all time high.  This is a temporary disruption to their business/the industry.

[Da-Painter]

When the market starts turning into a bear market, early birds that have sat on the sidelines, see these quick drops, and come in and buy too soon. The bear markets never give folks time to get out at the top, if they haven't already sold out.

After an agonizing 6-12 months of downward moves, when the news looks the worse, and the media says everyone is going bankrupt, and you don't want to buy, is the time to buy. Its the hardest time to buy, because the news is so bad. (This is just the smart folks who are trying to convince you to sell out at the bottom, so they can pick up stocks even cheaper.

How many geniuses came out and told you to SELL all your stocks months ago, some did, but the psychology of investing, the greater fool theory: "I am going to buy this now at this over inflated price, and sell it to another fool, who will buy it from me at an even higher price....." 

When you live through the past bear markets and see they all operate the same way, all the early birds here get slaughtered. 

I don't now how low things will go, but when the psychology looks like the world is going to end, that's the time to buy, if you have guts enough to do it.

(A former Commodity, Stock & Bond broker, who has been 100% cash for the last year.)

 

[Georgia_Peaches]

1 hour ago, Lupush said:

It's going to go lower.  I wouldn't doubt 2008 recession like levels of $8-$10 a share.

Interesting.  Guess I'll have to buy some more if that happens.  Wish I could say that I followed the markets as closely back in 2008.  Thanks for the perspective.  I too, think it will get worse before it gets better.

[Georgia_Peaches]

1 hour ago, ColeThornton said:

 

 

That's one heck of a bargain price.

I thought so too.  I'm not a huge financial risk taker so the price was right for me. 🙂