Predict when cruising will start again post-Coronavirus

[DiamondFour]

Looking at the high numbers of cases I doubt that cruising will resume in Europe this year.

 

My predictions are America is going to be hardest hit. I think so many cases will arise in their country that their residents will not be allowed in other countries even if their government lets them out of their country. Europe will not accept them and Australia will not accept them. For America I predict July 2021 or after but not before.

 

For Europe I predict October 2021. They will recover but opening borders will be slow and they need to rebuild their economy.

 

The biggest enemy to the cruise industry is the travel shut down and sourcing of crew from Eastern Europe. For that reason I think cruising will be not operating again in 2020 at all.

 

Japan may be lucky. If Princess can get the Diamond Princess cleared and the local Japanese market cruising again then it may be September 2020 when the Diamond Princess resumes assuming that Princess is still in business.

 

As for Australia. That is a tough question. The government has indicated to cruise lines June 15th as a resume date. Assuming we do well with holding off the virus then domestic cruises may resume at that stage assuming the cruise lines can get a crew to their ship.

 

I think if we are really lucky then P&O Australia might resume on schedule in June 2020 assuming we eradicate the virus. If P&O Australia resume at that date then I predict Sapphire Princess will resume in July 2020.

 

I have a friend in the ADF (I will not mention which service) who is getting posted to monitor the streets during the lockdown of our country. His advice to me was do not expect international travel to resume until March 2021 from Australia and be then it will be limited to New Zealand, Japan, the South Pacific assuming they have us and a few Asian countries.

 

My predictions are that cruise lines will avoid China for a considerable amount of time and probably redeploy to Singapore or Japan if they were to cruise Asia.

 

My money is on Diamond Princess returning to service first. My next bet is Sapphire Princess. If we are lucky then we may get the Regal in December.

 

I am supposed to be going on the Sapphire Princess this July with my gift credit from Princess. It is scheduled to go to Papua New Guinea. I doubt that port will allow ships by then so if the cruise does go ahead then I think they will substitute Alotau with Willis Island to get international status.

[VK3DQ]

Hi Folks

 

How many "Gentlemen" dont wash their hands after using the WC or Urinals ..... straight out turn left and dive into the Buffet

 

Regards

John

Edited March 31, 2020 by VK3DQ

[DiamondFour]

On 3/26/2020 at 8:09 PM, Chiliburn said:

We are on serenade on the 12 December.

 
 

let’s face it Cruise ships and aircraft are big incubators and I don’t think it will kick off until we have a vaccine.

So their talking early next year for a vaccine for general use .

If so we are all going to be hanging out for a holiday.
 

Im just thinking about final payment in September. Should I pay it or l just let the bookings laps.

On the Royal  Carribean forum people are concerned about their money. RC just borrowed $2.5 billion to stay solvent. 

There may be a game changer here.

 

A vaccine will change anything that is a granted, however there is a new 15 minute finger ***** test that will tell you if you have the virus, have had it or have the antibodies in your blood. If that test is mass produced and at respectable costs then airlines and cruise ships could screen people prior to boarding which I predict will be the new future of international travel.

 

I also predict that you will need a vaccination certificate before you are allowed on certain flights and ships and even enter certain countries once international travel resumes. This may exclude some people on political and religious grounds but so be it. I think cruise lines and airlines will have to make vaccinations mandatory to be a passenger with their company.

 

I think airlines may have to rethink seating arrangements and increase space and cruise lines may have to rethink passenger space ratios or dispense with small cabins for 4 people.

[VK3DQ]

3 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

 

 

I think airlines may have to rethink seating arrangements and increase space and cruise lines may

have to rethink passenger space ratios or dispense with small cabins for 4 people.

 

Hi Folks

 

Yes agree here no more being squashed in like sardines , and a return to some SINGLE cabins on ships ... But I still stick to my original thoughts of a two year pause for cruising and for things to be very different after that

 

Regards

John

[DiamondFour]

12 minutes ago, VK3DQ said:

 

Hi Folks

 

Yes agree here no more being squashed in like sardines , and a return to some SINGLE cabins on ships ... But I still stick to my original thoughts of a two year pause for cruising and for things to be very different after that

 

Regards

John

I am thinking similar unless certain events take place that change the course of this virus.

 

It is clear the chinese government lied from the outset and it will take some time before there is a level of trust. As countries must transit Asia to come here it is unlikely cruising will resume soon.

 

If domestic cruising does resume then that will depend on how Australia fares.

 

The game changes are a successful vaccine or immediate cure such as a drug that will stop it in its tracks once diagnosed. The other game changers are instant test kits and the ability to medicate.

 

If a cure drug is created then chances are things will return to normal faster than expected.

 

The issue I have with the two year pause is even some of the larger cruise lines may not survive it. It could put them out of business permanently. Carnival could be broken up, same with Royal Caribbean. If it drags out do not expect all cruise lines to survive.

[Rassa]

DiamondFour I am also booked on the northern explorer in July.   I initially though cruising cannot successfully start again without a vaccine but the 15 minute finger test is certainly a start for keeping ships virus free.  However, would Princess be organised enough to do that and just imagine the hold up at embarkation.  Definitely a good idea.  I also though the ship would not go to New Guinea and go instead to Willis Island.  Would those over 70 need a doctor's clearance, but anyone can fudge a doctors note.

 

Domestic flights to Sydney and from Perth are a concern but would the planes fly full by then anyway.

 

I would hate to see International Travel to and from Australia started up again by July unless a vaccine is available (which is more likely around the new year) or the 14 days compulsory quarantine maintained.

 

My thoughts however are that July cruises  in Australia may also be cancelled.

 

Thanks for sharing your story.

[SinbadThePorter]

Just now, DiamondFour said:

there is a new 15 minute finger ***** test that will tell you if you have the virus, have had it or have the antibodies in your blood. If that test is mass produced and at respectable costs then airlines and cruise ships could screen people prior to boarding which I predict will be the new future of international travel.

 

The real test will be from the insurance companies. Will a finger test be enough for them to cover passengers against Covid-19 related illness, delays or cancellations? If not, who is game to go without full insurance coverage?

 

Until the insurance companies come to the party I'm not setting on board a cruise ship. I suspect that will come some time after the vaccine is available, maybe 1st quarter 2021 if we are lucky.

[The_Big_M]

3 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

There may be a game changer here.

 

A vaccine will change anything that is a granted, however there is a new 15 minute finger ***** test that will tell you if you have the virus, have had it or have the antibodies in your blood. If that test is mass produced and at respectable costs then airlines and cruise ships could screen people prior to boarding which I predict will be the new future of international travel.

 

 

 

Actually that 15 minute finger test has some limitations, the main one is actually that it doesn't tell if you have the virus in the early stages. It is a better indicator if you have had it in the past, or currently have it for at least 5 days. For those reasons, I would consider it insufficient to provide any assurance for cruises or governments.

 

There is, however, a longer 45 minute test without a lab that has just gotten approval, and has greater accuracy in the early stages. Whether it is sufficient is still unknown though.

[The_Big_M]

3 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

 

I think if we are really lucky then P&O Australia might resume on schedule in June 2020 assuming we eradicate the virus. If P&O Australia resume at that date then I predict Sapphire Princess will resume in July 2020.

 

 

I said earlier I consider this date for P&O overly optimistic. This was prior to the open hostility that has come from a number of Premiers and officials and reinforces my belief that this date will be extended. 

 

My own timeframe had been more around the September period. However, this has a low confidence level.

 

To use your timeframes it would certainly leave the major cruise groups exposed to breaches of debt covenants and financing issues, and a fair chance they would go into financial reorganisation e.g. Chapter 11.

[LittleFish1976]

10 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

There may be a game changer here.

 

A vaccine will change anything that is a granted, however there is a new 15 minute finger ***** test that will tell you if you have the virus, have had it or have the antibodies in your blood. If that test is mass produced and at respectable costs then airlines and cruise ships could screen people prior to boarding which I predict will be the new future of international travel.

 

I also predict that you will need a vaccination certificate before you are allowed on certain flights and ships and even enter certain countries once international travel resumes. This may exclude some people on political and religious grounds but so be it. I think cruise lines and airlines will have to make vaccinations mandatory to be a passenger with their company.

 

I think airlines may have to rethink seating arrangements and increase space and cruise lines may have to rethink passenger space ratios or dispense with small cabins for 4 people.

 

The 15-minute test you mention is specifically an antibody test. It can detect if you have the antibodies to the coronavirus - nothing more. So you would have to have had the virus already to show the antibodies. It may not give a useful result if in the early stages of having the coronavirus as your body would not have had time to produce antibodies.

 

Personally, whilst that test will be useful for certain reasons, it can not be expected to be of much use in the cruise industry as regards their most prevalent demographic which is older people who will be doing everything they can to avoid contracting covid-19 as it is so dangerous to the over 50's.

 

I hope and expect that the vaccination will be compulsory; certainly for any sort of travelling.

 

 

[MicCanberra]

10 hours ago, SY7DNEY CRUISER said:

The 2 Deaths were passengers on the Ruby Princess.

Five more crew were taken to hospital in Sydney over the last two days.

 

There are now over 400 passengers from the Ruby Princess infected.

This is 10% of the total persons  is infected in Australia with coronavirus.

 

The cruise operators need take a long hard look at how they operate.

 

 

Strange how Diamond Princess has it's own category rather than be part of Japan's. While Ruby's are all part of Australia's tally

[Pushka]

I'd be surprised if the Government has indicated June as a restart date. They are telling us it will be a 6 month process for life to start to resemble anything normal. Sadly whatever happened with Diamond and Ruby will haunt us for a very long time. I don't see anything back in Australia until December at best. And then the Ports will consider whether they reopen or not. 
Europe 2020 - forget it. 
USA - lord only knows. 

[DiamondFour]

9 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

 

I said earlier I consider this date for P&O overly optimistic. This was prior to the open hostility that has come from a number of Premiers and officials and reinforces my belief that this date will be extended. 

 

My own timeframe had been more around the September period. However, this has a low confidence level.

 

To use your timeframes it would certainly leave the major cruise groups exposed to breaches of debt covenants and financing issues, and a fair chance they would go into financial reorganisation e.g. Chapter 11.

As I said it would depend on how well we get the virus under control in our own country. I too am skeptical that cruising will resume by June, but it is still a possibility even if the chances are 5% it will go ahead it is still a chance.

 

I think regarding financial reorganisation given the unique circumstances and the political talk of a pause then the politicians would have to pause all laws regarding financing and allow companies to pause for longer and restart when operations begin.

 

My greatest fear is the death of the cruise industry which brings love and joy and happiness into peoples lives and brings people together opposed to divide them. I think it is quite disgraceful how in times of need that our political leaders and police chiefs are bashing the cruise lines. They are happy to take their money in the form of revenue to top up their budgets but now they are in trouble they just want to kick them when they are down. I have lost a lot of respect for the police force in general over their comments as well as political leaders. In our time of need Spectrum of the Seas came here to offer our first respondents free cruises after the fire crisis. Now that the ship is in trouble we just want to ditch them. I would be happy for those ships to tie up in Australian ports tax free and free of fees and charges and lay them up until this is over. 

[Vader1111]

12 hours ago, SY7DNEY CRUISER said:

The 2 Deaths were passengers on the Ruby Princess.

Five more crew were taken to hospital in Sydney over the last two days.

 

There are now over 400 passengers from the Ruby Princess infected.

This is 10% of the total persons  is infected in Australia with coronavirus.

 

The cruise operators need take a long hard look at how they operate.

 

 

You do have to wonder why the infection numbers on Princess ships are so much worse than any other cruise line.  There were 700+ on Diamond Princess, and 400+ on Ruby Princess.  The next worst that I'm aware of is Ovation of the Seas, with 80 known infections.  Ruby Princess was only one of four ships, and five cruises, to arrive in Sydney with infected passengers.  Ruby had more infections than the other four cruises combined.

 

What are Princess doing wrong, that the virus spreads so much more on their ships than those of any other cruise line?

[OzKiwiJJ]

6 minutes ago, Vader1111 said:

You do have to wonder why the infection numbers on Princess ships are so much worse than any other cruise line.  There were 700+ on Diamond Princess, and 400+ on Ruby Princess.  The next worst that I'm aware of is Ovation of the Seas, with 80 known infections.  Ruby Princess was only one of four ships, and five cruises, to arrive in Sydney with infected passengers.  Ruby had more infections than the other four cruises combined.

 

What are Princess doing wrong, that the virus spreads so much more on their ships than those of any other cruise line?

It could be just something as simple as the layout of their ships. Crooners and the deck five Atrium areas would probably be transited by almost all passengers several times a day so easy for surfaces there to be contaminated, and they are very popular areas for coffees during the day. There may possibly be more inside cabins on Princess so more people from those roaming the ship during the day. 

[Kiwi Kruzer]

As an  extension to this topic ...

How many ships  will survive this carnage ?

I am picking those that dont , will end up in the scrap yard .

or

If flying is spurned by travellers perhaps a return to passenger ships providing port to port transport ,like the liners of the past 

 

[DiamondFour]

15 minutes ago, Vader1111 said:

You do have to wonder why the infection numbers on Princess ships are so much worse than any other cruise line.  There were 700+ on Diamond Princess, and 400+ on Ruby Princess.  The next worst that I'm aware of is Ovation of the Seas, with 80 known infections.  Ruby Princess was only one of four ships, and five cruises, to arrive in Sydney with infected passengers.  Ruby had more infections than the other four cruises combined.

 

What are Princess doing wrong, that the virus spreads so much more on their ships than those of any other cruise line?

It is not the line of the ships. The Ruby Princess has been in a waters longer than the virus allegedly existed. The ships attract passengers world wide. All it would take is a passenger in transit at an Asian airport to catch it en route and bring it onto the ship and from there it spreads. Their crew predominantly come from Italy. Italy was the hardest hit and one can assume their airports are highly infected. All it would take is a single crew member to be posted to a Princess ship and not know they have symptoms and pass it. 

[Vader1111]

1 minute ago, DiamondFour said:

It is not the line of the ships. The Ruby Princess has been in a waters longer than the virus allegedly existed. The ships attract passengers world wide. All it would take is a passenger in transit at an Asian airport to catch it en route and bring it onto the ship and from there it spreads. Their crew predominantly come from Italy. Italy was the hardest hit and one can assume their airports are highly infected. All it would take is a single crew member to be posted to a Princess ship and not know they have symptoms and pass it. 

I'm not questioning how the virus got on board the ship.  I'm questioning why the virus spreads so much faster, infecting far more passengers, on Princess ships - in comparison to the other cruise lines.

[Aus Traveller]

2 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

Strange how Diamond Princess has it's own category rather than be part of Japan's. While Ruby's are all part of Australia's tally

Maybe because the Diamond Princess cases were all while aboard the ship, or after leaving Japan (but presumably acquired on the ship). Virtually all the Ruby Princess cases were diagnosed after the passengers had disembarked and gone home.

[Aus Traveller]

46 minutes ago, Pushka said:

I'd be surprised if the Government has indicated June as a restart date. They are telling us it will be a 6 month process for life to start to resemble anything normal. Sadly whatever happened with Diamond and Ruby will haunt us for a very long time. I don't see anything back in Australia until December at best. And then the Ports will consider whether they reopen or not. 
Europe 2020 - forget it. 
USA - lord only knows. 

I agree with your comments. We have a cruised booked for 23rd November to NZ and are very doubtful that it will go ahead.

[Aus Traveller]

28 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

My greatest fear is the death of the cruise industry which brings love and joy and happiness into peoples lives and brings people together opposed to divide them. I think it is quite disgraceful how in times of need that our political leaders and police chiefs are bashing the cruise lines. They are happy to take their money in the form of revenue to top up their budgets but now they are in trouble they just want to kick them when they are down. I have lost a lot of respect for the police force in general over their comments as well as political leaders. In our time of need Spectrum of the Seas came here to offer our first respondents free cruises after the fire crisis. Now that the ship is in trouble we just want to ditch them. I would be happy for those ships to tie up in Australian ports tax free and free of fees and charges and lay them up until this is over. 

👍  I also fear for the future of the cruise industry. We have been cruising since 1983 and I would hate that to end.

[Aus Traveller]

10 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

It is not the line of the ships. The Ruby Princess has been in a waters longer than the virus allegedly existed. The ships attract passengers world wide. All it would take is a passenger in transit at an Asian airport to catch it en route and bring it onto the ship and from there it spreads. Their crew predominantly come from Italy. Italy was the hardest hit and one can assume their airports are highly infected. All it would take is a single crew member to be posted to a Princess ship and not know they have symptoms and pass it. 

I have agreed with your previous posts and thank you for them, however, I don't agree that on the Princess ships, "their crew predominantly come from Italy". Several of the officers and the maitre d' usually do, but they would probably be less than two dozen. The many hundreds (maybe 600 or so?) of stewards, waitstaff and deck crew are from Indonesia, the Philippines and India.

[lyndarra]

2 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

Strange how Diamond Princess has it's own category rather than be part of Japan's. While Ruby's are all part of Australia's tally

Diamond passengers were kept on board until assessed. When released would they have then been considered evacuees and not part of Japan's population? Ruby's were just released into the general population.

Will Zaandam's victims be included in US numbers?

[Aus Traveller]

11 minutes ago, Vader1111 said:

I'm not questioning how the virus got on board the ship.  I'm questioning why the virus spreads so much faster, infecting far more passengers, on Princess ships - in comparison to the other cruise lines.

I don't know, but it is an interesting question. Do more people go to the shows and sit close together in the theatre?? Do more people use the lifts?? Is it the age demographic most often found on Princess ships compared with other lines ??

 

We have all seen the housekeeping crew constantly wiping down handrails and other surfaces people touch, and these measures always increase if their is there is Noro on board and recently with the chance of covid-19.

 

My conclusion is that I do not have one. 🙂

[MicCanberra]

11 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

Maybe because the Diamond Princess cases were all while aboard the ship, or after leaving Japan (but presumably acquired on the ship). Virtually all the Ruby Princess cases were diagnosed after the passengers had disembarked and gone home.

Yes, perhaps but still not consistant