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A Good Article to Better Explain the "Over 70" Issue


klfrodo
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6 minutes ago, klfrodo said:

Nothing much new here, but I do object to the opening statement :

 

"So far, the new coronavirus seems to be an equal opportunity pathogen, at least when it comes to who gets infected. It doesn't seem to single out certain groups or individuals. "There's not a difference in risk of transmission that we know of," says S. Wesley Long, MD, PhD, assistant professor of pathology and genomic medicine at Houston Methodist Hospital."

 

In fact here is statistical evidence from early data in China that suggests younger people are at less risk of becoming infected, not just at less risk of developing a severe case of Covid-19:

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

 

"Old and young

The vast majority of cases in China — 87% — were in people ages 30 to 79, the China Center for Disease Control reported last month based on data from all 72,314 of those diagnosed with Covid-19 as of Feb. 11. That probably reflects something about biology more than lifestyle, such as being in frequent contact with other people. Teens and people in their 20s also encounter many others, at school and work and on public transit, yet they don’t seem to be contracting the disease at significant rates: Only 8.1% of cases were 20-somethings, 1.2% were teens, and 0.9% were 9 or younger. The World Health Organization mission to China found that 78% of the cases reported as of Feb. 20 were in people ages 30 to 69."

 

As of yet I haven't seen  data contradicting the information from China cited above. If valid, the doctor's opening paragraph is wrong...Covid-19 in fact would have a lower risk of transmission to younger people .

 

Anyone have data newer than I've cited?

 

 

 

 

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90% of lethal cases from being infected by covid virus is put on 70+ citizens. Just think about it, about 50-60% of passengers on those transatlantic cruises are elderly people. What do you think will happen if accidentally, the virus would be brought on board? If I was an oldy I wouldnt risk. At least for now 

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7 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Sorry, I hadn't seen where you shared that data or that article. 

What I have seen is people not understanding why "they" were being  picked upon just because they may be older or they may have diabetes and such.

 

But, for the latest data, one can look here

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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6 minutes ago, klfrodo said:

Sorry, I hadn't seen where you shared that data or that article. 

What I have seen is people not understanding why "they" were being  picked upon just because they may be older or they may have diabetes and such.

 

But, for the latest data, one can look here

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

I can't find the data I'm looking for on the website you've referenced. I'm looking for an update of the statistics I quoted about the incidence of infection  by age group, not the mortality rate by age group. If I've missed that data please point me in the right direction.

 

When I said "Nothing much new here" I wasn't saying I, or anyone else for that matter had cited that particular article elsewhere on Cruise Critic. What I'm saying is it doesn't contain much if any information that hasn't been published almost everywhere in the press repeatedly. That wasn't intended to mean you shouldn't have posted it. I wouldn't have said anything at all had the article not opened with what may be a blatant misstatement based on data I've seen.

 

Again, the article you've posted states: "So far, the new coronavirus seems to be an equal opportunity pathogen, at least when it comes to who gets infected." while the data I've cited suggest that isn't so. 

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16 hours ago, njhorseman said:

Nothing much new here, but I do object to the opening statement :

 

"So far, the new coronavirus seems to be an equal opportunity pathogen, at least when it comes to who gets infected. It doesn't seem to single out certain groups or individuals. "There's not a difference in risk of transmission that we know of," says S. Wesley Long, MD, PhD, assistant professor of pathology and genomic medicine at Houston Methodist Hospital."

 

In fact here is statistical evidence from early data in China that suggests younger people are at less risk of becoming infected, not just at less risk of developing a severe case of Covid-19:

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

 

"Old and young

The vast majority of cases in China — 87% — were in people ages 30 to 79, the China Center for Disease Control reported last month based on data from all 72,314 of those diagnosed with Covid-19 as of Feb. 11. That probably reflects something about biology more than lifestyle, such as being in frequent contact with other people. Teens and people in their 20s also encounter many others, at school and work and on public transit, yet they don’t seem to be contracting the disease at significant rates: Only 8.1% of cases were 20-somethings, 1.2% were teens, and 0.9% were 9 or younger. The World Health Organization mission to China found that 78% of the cases reported as of Feb. 20 were in people ages 30 to 69."

 

As of yet I haven't seen  data contradicting the information from China cited above. If valid, the doctor's opening paragraph is wrong...Covid-19 in fact would have a lower risk of transmission to younger people .

 

Anyone have data newer than I've cited?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Or those rates of infection simply reflect the likelihood of someone having symptoms and therefore going to get tested. I have heard multiple places that for people 20 and under it is very likely that they will be asymptomatic or have such mild symptoms they don't realize they are sick. Unfortunately, they are still carriers and spreaders. 

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@sanger727 I am/would be part of what you are referring to (minus the being your 20s part 😉 ). If I come down with a fever, dry cough and body aches I will treat the symptoms, stay home and rest/isolate. I would NOT get tested. There is no medicine for the virus itself, only to treat the symptoms. I would let those I've been in contact with (co-workers) know that I'm feeling unwell. Unless my symptoms worsened (severe breathing difficulty) I would not seek medical attention. I have not traveled OCONUS since my Mexican Riviera Cruise in January, I have not (AFAIK) been in contact with anyone that has been diagnosed with COVID-19. Therefore, I am low risk according to CDC & WHO. The tests that are available, as well as the time/skill of our medical professionals, would best be used on those within the high risk groups.

 

I should mention; I live alone, have been practicing social distancing and following all recommendations of the WHO/CDC. Don't want anyone thinking I'm bucking the recommendations.

Edited by JennyB1977
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I know as much about COVID-19 as the other posters, which means very little.  In my prior life I worked in the government health sector and was involved with the HIV/AIDS epidemic before we even had a name for the bug.  In fact, Dr. Anthony Fauci became a hero to many of us involved with HIV/AIDS programs so it is reassuring to see him involved in the current pandemic.  But we learned many lessons with HIV/AIDS and one important thing was the inaccuracy of early statistics and speculation.  So consider that every statistic coming out of China is suspect and likely "adjusted" to fit their daily propaganda model.  Italy's system is so overwhelmed that it will likely be months until they have time to get their act together and analyze the data.  

 

I will toss out a simple question which will demonstrate how little we know.  "What impact does smoking have on COVID-19?"  Look at the current data and you will not find a statistically valid answer.   If one wanted to twist statistics they could make an argument that the reason children do not seem to have a big problem with COVID-19 is because they are the only statistical group that has no smokers.  

 

Experience has taught me a very important lesson.  Much of the current speculation about COVID-19 will turn out to be wrong!  Dr. Fauci knows this from a lifetime of working with infectious diseases and it is why you will notice he is very cautious when he answers questions.  During the early days of HIV/AIDS he would constantly tell folks to minimize speculation and stick to the science.  How long will this pandemic last?  The truth is nobody has a clue.  The virus could change into a less dangerous bug, the warm weather could blunt the spread, and this could end in a few months.  On the other hand, this might be with us for several years until a safe vaccine is developed.  And keeping that in mind you might want to consider that despite the fact we have flu vaccines that are proven to safely reduce mortality and morbidity, fewer then half the population in developed countries gets the shot....even if it is offered for free.  Hence, the morbidity/mortality rates for the flu are still  abysmal.  It will likely be the same for COVID-19!

 

Hank

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The latest re young people:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/younger-adults-are-large-percentage-coronavirus-hospitalizations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/

 

@Hlitner a side note.  I was working at CDC, but in parasitology, in the mid to late 60s when a "green money virus" jumped into humans. It was only recently that I had an "aha moment" and realized it had to have been early HIV. Did a little poking around and sure enough. Also a side note. Rachel Maddow had a guest on recently who was singing the praises of Dr. Fauci for his early work on HIV/AIDS. We're lucky to have him.

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19 hours ago, njhorseman said:

Nothing much new here, but I do object to the opening statement :

 

"So far, the new coronavirus seems to be an equal opportunity pathogen, at least when it comes to who gets infected. It doesn't seem to single out certain groups or individuals. "There's not a difference in risk of transmission that we know of," says S. Wesley Long, MD, PhD, assistant professor of pathology and genomic medicine at Houston Methodist Hospital."

 

In fact here is statistical evidence from early data in China that suggests younger people are at less risk of becoming infected, not just at less risk of developing a severe case of Covid-19:

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

 

"Old and young

The vast majority of cases in China — 87% — were in people ages 30 to 79, the China Center for Disease Control reported last month based on data from all 72,314 of those diagnosed with Covid-19 as of Feb. 11. That probably reflects something about biology more than lifestyle, such as being in frequent contact with other people. Teens and people in their 20s also encounter many others, at school and work and on public transit, yet they don’t seem to be contracting the disease at significant rates: Only 8.1% of cases were 20-somethings, 1.2% were teens, and 0.9% were 9 or younger. The World Health Organization mission to China found that 78% of the cases reported as of Feb. 20 were in people ages 30 to 69."

 

As of yet I haven't seen  data contradicting the information from China cited above. If valid, the doctor's opening paragraph is wrong...Covid-19 in fact would have a lower risk of transmission to younger people .

 

Anyone have data newer than I've cited?

 

 

 

 

 

The problem is, the cases counted are only those that got sick enough to seek medical attention.

 

Corona virus is the common cold.  So it is likely that many people get it, have a basic cold, get well and are never counted as COVID 19 cases.

 

 

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50 minutes ago, clo said:

The latest re young people:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/younger-adults-are-large-percentage-coronavirus-hospitalizations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/

 

@Hlitner a side note.  I was working at CDC, but in parasitology, in the mid to late 60s when a "green money virus" jumped into humans. It was only recently that I had an "aha moment" and realized it had to have been early HIV. Did a little poking around and sure enough. Also a side note. Rachel Maddow had a guest on recently who was singing the praises of Dr. Fauci for his early work on HIV/AIDS. We're lucky to have him.

The man is one of my hero's.   Few Americans realize how lucky we are to have him working on this COVID-19 issue.  With all the politics going on in Washington we can count on Dr. Fauci to keep his eye on the science and the solutions.  Whatever folks think about President Trump, he has a first-class group of folks on that task force.

 

Hank

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16 minutes ago, SRF said:

 

The problem is, the cases counted are only those that got sick enough to seek medical attention.

 

Corona virus is the common cold.  So it is likely that many people get it, have a basic cold, get well and are never counted as COVID 19 cases.

 

 

I'm a mathematician and retired actuary. I'm fully aware of the shortcomings in the data cited but as of now I'm not aware of any better data.

 

Your statement "corona virus is the common cold" is absolutely untrue. The common cold doesn't kill 4% (based on current data as compiled by Johns Hopkins University of Medicine at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html  ) of those known to have contracted it. While the mortality rate will likely drop dramatically once testing is more widely available and mild cases are identified It's still widely anticipated to be at least 10 time more deadly than seasonal influenza.

 

South Korea, which is generally recognized as having the most effective and widely available testing program has a Covid-19 mortality rate of slightly over 1%.  Seasonal flu's mortality is about 0.1% With that high a mortality rate it's not a great leap of faith to speculate that a higher percentage of those who contract Covid-19 will have symptoms strong enough to cause them to self identify as needing a test, which all other things being equal would mean a lower percentage of undiagnosed cases than for other common viral illnesses. 

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3 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I know as much about COVID-19 as the other posters, which means very little.  In my prior life I worked in the government health sector and was involved with the HIV/AIDS epidemic before we even had a name for the bug.  In fact, Dr. Anthony Fauci became a hero to many of us involved with HIV/AIDS programs so it is reassuring to see him involved in the current pandemic.  But we learned many lessons with HIV/AIDS and one important thing was the inaccuracy of early statistics and speculation.  So consider that every statistic coming out of China is suspect and likely "adjusted" to fit their daily propaganda model.  Italy's system is so overwhelmed that it will likely be months until they have time to get their act together and analyze the data.  

 

I will toss out a simple question which will demonstrate how little we know.  "What impact does smoking have on COVID-19?"  Look at the current data and you will not find a statistically valid answer.   If one wanted to twist statistics they could make an argument that the reason children do not seem to have a big problem with COVID-19 is because they are the only statistical group that has no smokers.  

 

Experience has taught me a very important lesson.  Much of the current speculation about COVID-19 will turn out to be wrong!  Dr. Fauci knows this from a lifetime of working with infectious diseases and it is why you will notice he is very cautious when he answers questions.  During the early days of HIV/AIDS he would constantly tell folks to minimize speculation and stick to the science.  How long will this pandemic last?  The truth is nobody has a clue.  The virus could change into a less dangerous bug, the warm weather could blunt the spread, and this could end in a few months.  On the other hand, this might be with us for several years until a safe vaccine is developed.  And keeping that in mind you might want to consider that despite the fact we have flu vaccines that are proven to safely reduce mortality and morbidity, fewer then half the population in developed countries gets the shot....even if it is offered for free.  Hence, the morbidity/mortality rates for the flu are still  abysmal.  It will likely be the same for COVID-19!

 

Hank

One of my closest friends died from having AIDS in 1989. He was quite famous at the time and could have had the best possible treatment but he thought he was invincible and perhaps did not get the treatment that he could have had.

As I write this another friend who thought he was invincible is in a NYC hospital being treated for possibly the Corona Virus.

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I am going to get a bit in the weeds. Coronaviruses are like noroviruses and rhinoviruses. They are large families of viruses. Within each family there are types. COVID-19 is a type of coronavirus. Coronaviruses normally cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory illness, including the common cold.

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6 hours ago, JennyB1977 said:

I am going to get a bit in the weeds. Coronaviruses are like noroviruses and rhinoviruses. They are large families of viruses. Within each family there are types. COVID-19 is a type of coronavirus. Coronaviruses normally cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory illness, including the common cold.

I DID NOT know that. Thanks.

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On 3/19/2020 at 11:49 AM, JennyB1977 said:

I am going to get a bit in the weeds. Coronaviruses are like noroviruses and rhinoviruses. They are large families of viruses. Within each family there are types. COVID-19 is a type of coronavirus. Coronaviruses normally cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory illness, including the common cold.

I’m glad you mentioned this Jenny. SARS and MERS are also Coronaviruses.

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On 3/19/2020 at 2:49 PM, JennyB1977 said:

I am going to get a bit in the weeds. Coronaviruses are like noroviruses and rhinoviruses. They are large families of viruses. Within each family there are types. COVID-19 is a type of coronavirus. Coronaviruses normally cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory illness, including the common cold.

 

On 3/19/2020 at 9:31 PM, clo said:

I DID NOT know that. Thanks.

 

4 hours ago, crzndeb said:

I’m glad you mentioned this Jenny. SARS and MERS are also Coronaviruses.

Coronaviruses is the term used for viruses transmitted from animal to human.  SARS from civets and MERS from camels

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1 hour ago, Elaine5715 said:

 

 

Coronaviruses is the term used for viruses transmitted from animal to human.  SARS from civets and MERS from camels

Absolutely not . Just because SARS, MERS and COVID-19 are examples of coronaviruses that originated in animals and eventually were transmitted to humans does not mean that's the definition of  the term "coronavirus" . There are seven different types of human coronavirus that have been identified. In most cases they cause nothing worse than the common cold.

 

The term coronavirus is derived from the physical structure of that type of virus and nothing more:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/coronavirus

 

"Definition of coronavirus

1: any of a family (Coronaviridae) of single-stranded RNA viruses that have a lipid envelope studded with club-shaped projections, infect birds and many mammals including humans, and include the causative agents of MERS, SARS, and COVID-19."

 

Here's a medical definition:

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=22789

 

If you want a scientific journal article, try this one:

https://journals.lww.com/pidj/fulltext/2005/11001/history_and_recent_advances_in_coronavirus.12.aspx

 

 

 

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