Cruising Again.....

[rattanchair]

3 hours ago, scpirate said:

I cancelled my August cruise which hurricane season was going to be stressful enough.i have a 10 day on another line in January 2022. I'm not worried about cruising for a while until everything gets straightened up.i have a motorhome and a 25 ft pontoon boat.ive been wanting to take up gold panning / metal detecting for a while.everything I need is in my home state.our other favorite the Smokey mountains are only 5 hours away.gas is cheap so are campground fees.no problems life is good.

Dear sc,  It appears you have "La dulce vida".  Godspeed. All I have  is a garage.

[deliver42]

We have a TA booked for next April, and hope we are good to go.

[hamrag]

For me, the answer to the question is it depends....social distancing is hugely important, but is being ignored by many certainly here in the UK....the capacity of health authorities, and staff, to cope is different across nations....each continent is at a different stage in contagion and action plans....it will be many months, possibly over a year, before a reliable vaccine is tested, produced, distributed and available etc. etc.

 

We are currently booked on Mera sailing NYC to Miami late October 2020, and an Oceania cruise to Bermuda July 2021. My expectation is 'no chance' for October but a glimmer of hope for July 2021 if the cruiseline pulls through! Honestly, it is that serious, this virus is not gonna blow away by Autumn or even next Winter.....Spring 2021 perhaps it may decline to a manageable level.

 

My reasoning is 'hybrid' i.e. some of it based on listening to the experts, particularly reading between the lines of various rhetoric. Some of it based on my gut feel on all that is happening around it worldwide right now.

 

One thing is certain....the cruise industry will feel quite different for a long time, for those lines who manage to survive.

 

 

[niko40]

Still booked for this September so fingers crossed we will go🤞🤧😷

[8420PR]

On 3/19/2020 at 7:55 PM, DCGuy64 said:

I'm following this thread because we also hope to cruise again in the future. I'd like to know what basis people have for making their predictions, be they optimistic (cruises resuming later this year) or less so (2021 and beyond). It would help us in our travel plans if we knew the sources people are relying on (articles, government stats, cruise industry insiders, etc). Thank you in advance!

 

Here is a link to the scientific data the UK is using:

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

 

 

Scenario 1:  No mitigation:  i.e. do nothing.    Cruising again by August, with emptier ships.

Figure 1 and 2:  with no mitigation it is over by August, at a cost of 500k lives in UK and 2.1 million lives in US.  This is NOT the approach the US or UK are taking, as mitigation strategies are in place (e.g. cruises cancelled).

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

Scenario 2: Suppression: i.e. eradicate the virus (like China/HK/Taiwan/Singapore are attempting).  If successful, cruising again by May/June, but with significant travel restrictions.

If everyone has zero social contact for the infection period (14 days) then the virus transmission will stop.  Of course zero social contact is impossible, so a much longer period (8 weeks) is required in places with lots of infections (e.g. Wuhan) compared to places where there are less infections (e.g. the rest of China, Singapore etc).   After the quarantine period travel restrictions are required to keep new infections out (e.g. foreigners are no longer allowed into  or to transit via Singapore) and containment efforts (contact tracing) still required to keep the number of cases and transmission as low as possible.

 

Note:  UK scientific input (behavioral science) determines this is unlikely to be possible in the UK.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/874290/05-potential-impact-of-behavioural-social-interventions-on-an-epidemic-of-covid-19-in-uk-1.pdf

 

"It was agreed that it is unclear whether or not the addition of general social distancing measures to case isolation, household isolation and social distancing of vulnerable groups would curtail the epidemic by reducing the reproduction number to less than 1."

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/873729/06-spi-m-o-consensus-view-on-behavioural-and-social-interventions.pdf

 

Living in Europe, I hope that the Continental European countries are successful in achieving suppression, and then put travel restrictions in place to avoid importing the virus from other countries that have not suppressed the virus.  

 

Scenario 3:  Mitigation: i.e. reduce avoidable deaths.   Unclear impact on cruising - likely no cruising through to end 2021 for at-risk people (over 70's and existing medical conditions).

 

Figure 4 (on page 12) shows to minimize deaths we need on and off social distancing and school closures in force for 66% of the time through to November 2021.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

This is the fall-back scenario where suppression (scenario 2) fails or is not attempted.  It could mean cruising restarting in July, but with (unknown) restrictions, but there would definitely be some disruption caused by Corona virus through to the end of 2021.

 

Scenario 4:  Vaccines and effective treatments:

 

It's difficult to predict when a vaccine will become available to the general public.  Estimates seem to be 12-18 months.  I assume it would only be available in quantities that high risk or rich people (depending on the healthcare system) would be vaccinated in the 18 month timeline.

 

 

DISCLAIMER:  I'm not an expert.   I am just a normal person looking for data driven analysis that I can use to understand the impact on my 2020 plans.   These are my interpretations, likely to be skewed by personal belief, optimism, pessimism etc.   It could be that I have used limited real data together to show and support a false conclusion.

 

For me, our April holiday (Asia) is cancelled.  I was previously planning on booking a last minute cruise in May, which looks very unlikely now.  

Edited March 22, 2020 by 8420PR
added disclaimer

[HappyInVan]

2 hours ago, 8420PR said:

Scenario 3:  Mitigation: i.e. reduce avoidable deaths.   Unclear impact on cruising - likely no cruising through to end 2021 for at-risk people (over 70's and existing medical conditions).

 

Figure 4 (on page 12) shows to minimize deaths we need on and off social distancing and school closures in force for 66% of the time through to November 2021.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

This is the fall-back scenario where suppression (scenario 2) fails or is not attempted.  It could mean cruising restarting in July, but with (unknown) restrictions, but there would definitely be some disruption caused by Corona virus through to the end of 2021.

 

Thanks for the references.

 

Mitigation alone is likely to fail because of the number of cases and the collapse of the medical system. The current rising epidemics need to be suppressed (at least to a low level), before mitigation has a chance.

 

“Coronavirus: Experiment in northern Italian town halts all new infections after trial”

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-experiment-northern-italian-town-halts-infections-trial-122700984.html

 

Sustained mitigation may lead to the collapse of the economy. No one will be buying cars, TV or clothes (other then protective gear). Barbers will be working in hazmat clothes. You can staff the factories, but demand will be selective.

 

Everything depends on the discipline of the local population. Can they consistently do the things needed to avoid infection?

 

Mitigation will fail spectacularly if people stage revolts (let's party!), as they run out of patience. Death would be better than loneliness.

 

Not sure how long that seniors and vulnerable people can endure self-isolation. Are you going to lock them up to save their lives?

 

In Quebec, the police arrested a virus-positive woman who didn't self-isolate. She is currently in a hospital. This will not work with numbers of violators.

 

IMO, we are pass the point of options Do-Nothing and Mitigation. Suppress first, followed by mitigation to suppress the second wave.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/who-officials-say-at-least-20-coronavirus-vaccines-are-in-development-in-global-race-for-cure.html

 

At this time, there are clear comparisons between chaotic societies and disciplined nations. Between strong leadership and politics muddled with ideological blinkers.

 

Towards the end of the year, tourism will resume as the stronger countries open their borders to each other. The weak countries will remain isolated.

 

Think of the third world countries. With inadequate education and medical resources, they simply cannot afford an epidemic. Their borders will remain closed. Happy cruising!

 

 

 

 

[hamrag]

3 hours ago, 8420PR said:

 

Scenario 1:  No mitigation:  i.e. do nothing.    Cruising again by August, with emptier ships.

 

Scenario 2: Suppression: i.e. eradicate the virus (like China/HK/Taiwan/Singapore are attempting).  If successful, cruising again by May/June, but with significant travel restrictions.

 

Scenario 3:  Mitigation: i.e. reduce avoidable deaths.   Unclear impact on cruising - likely no cruising through to end 2021 for at-risk people (over 70's and existing medical conditions).

This is the fall-back scenario where suppression (scenario 2) fails or is not attempted.  It could mean cruising restarting in July, but with (unknown) restrictions, but there would definitely be some disruption caused by Corona virus through to the end of 2021.

 

DISCLAIMER:  I'm not an expert.....

 

Personally, I wouldn't argue with the months you quote for each of those scenarios....assuming you mean it's 2021.... 😏 

DISCLAIMER:  I'm not an expert either.....rather a realist!

Edited March 22, 2020 by hamrag

[resistk]

Just got an email from MSC that makes the incredible claim:

 

"At the present time, new cruise embarkations are scheduled to resume on April 30. "

 

They are not doing themselves any favors by making wild claims like that.  Who is going where in 30 days?

[skiierx131]

4 hours ago, resistk said:

Just got an email from MSC that makes the incredible claim:

 

"At the present time, new cruise embarkations are scheduled to resume on April 30. "

 

They are not doing themselves any favors by making wild claims like that.  Who is going where in 30 days?

At least MSC is posting a date further out than Royal (April 11), Carnival (April 10), and Norwegian (April 12) for their current returns. I don't think we'll be cruising by the end of April, definitely not in 3 weeks.

[brightestfan]

4 hours ago, skiierx131 said:

At least MSC is posting a date further out than Royal (April 11), Carnival (April 10), and Norwegian (April 12) for their current returns. I don't think we'll be cruising by the end of April, definitely not in 3 weeks.

I know what you mean.  We are even questioning July.

[deliver42]

I would think, make that hope by late summer or early fall.

[antiq]

I doubt we will be able to travel freely for at least 6 months.

Here in Australia we have just started closing our state borders, for our state as of today, only essential transportation is allowed, anyone entering has to go into 14 days self quarantine.  It is no impossible to get any flights in and out.  We have closed cafes, restaurants, gyms and other sporting clubs etc where gathering occurs.  As for restaurants and cafe will be take outs only.

I am hoping some to see some normality after 6 months, fingers and toes crossed.

[Fogfog]

We've got something towards the end of 2020 and will hold it-- 

and something in 2021 as well

 

We expect to be cruising as soon as hot spots are dealt with ... 

 

People are still flying... without vaccines

 

[bobndee]

We have a Caribbean cruise booked for October 2020.  So far we're just playing wait-and-see.  Final payment isn't due until mid-summer so we have some flexibility to see what happens.

 

In addition to that, both my wife and I are 70 years old.  We'll have to see how that plays into the equation, too.

 

[Cruising89143]

Our Celebrity B2B due to start on 4/06 was canceled and we’re waiting on a full refund. Our Seaside cruise scheduled for 5/06 is still on per MSC even though we are not going and I seriously doubt it sails anyway. We’re waiting to see what MSC does before we act to move the date. We’ve already canceled our hotel and airfare for Miami. 

 

As far as when cruising will start, it’s anyone’s guess but I personally do not see ships going out with guests anytime soon and to be honest we’re in no hurry. I read a statement from Carnival Corp. CEO that they’re prepared financially if ships have to sit idle for the remainder of the year. I suspect RCCL is in the same position. I also read that financially NCL was in pretty good shape to ride this out. Not sure about MSC. 
 

We’re blessed to live in a part of the country where we have beautiful weather. We have been mandated by our Mayor to “shelter in place” since the 17th. We have followed orders other than buying groceries which we’re allowed to do. We’re just spending time in our backyard using the pool and pretending we’re on vacation.🙂 Stay safe everyone. 

 

 

[brightestfan]

3 hours ago, cruisingator2 said:

Our Celebrity B2B due to start on 4/06 was canceled and we’re waiting on a full refund. Our Seaside cruise scheduled for 5/06 is still on per MSC even though we are not going and I seriously doubt it sails anyway. We’re waiting to see what MSC does before we act to move the date. We’ve already canceled our hotel and airfare for Miami. 

 

As far as when cruising will start, it’s anyone’s guess but I personally do not see ships going out with guests anytime soon and to be honest we’re in no hurry. I read a statement from Carnival Corp. CEO that they’re prepared financially if ships have to sit idle for the remainder of the year. I suspect RCCL is in the same position. I also read that financially NCL was in pretty good shape to ride this out. Not sure about MSC. 
 

We’re blessed to live in a part of the country where we have beautiful weather. We have been mandated by our Mayor to “shelter in place” since the 17th. We have followed orders other than buying groceries which we’re allowed to do. We’re just spending time in our backyard using the pool and pretending we’re on vacation.🙂 Stay safe everyone. 

 

 

We are doing the same--pretending to be on vacation and just going out for groceries.  We have trips this summer--doubt we will go and even if MSC will go--it's Seaside in the Caribbean. 

[ckmedsec]

We will cruise again when a vaccine is available.  Just cancelled our cruises for 2020.  MSC Seaside for Aug.15 2020 and RCl Vision of the Seas for  Dec.4 2020.  Keeping our NCL for July 2021.  Stay safe and stay healthy. 

[Norwich Cruiser]

On 3/22/2020 at 9:03 PM, skiierx131 said:

At least MSC is posting a date further out than Royal (April 11), Carnival (April 10), and Norwegian (April 12) for their current returns. I don't think we'll be cruising by the end of April, definitely not in 3 weeks.

RCCL is actually quoting a full refund for cruises up until September 1st 2020

[Beardface]

I just get the feeling that, even if most of our normal lives resume, I can't see any kind of venues where large crowds gather reopening until a vaccine is released.  This disease spreads too easily and is too deadly to really bring people into large crowded situations until this is under control.

 

So my guess is that things like Conventions, Concerts, Sporting events, Resorts, Cruises, etc will all be closed until then.

[jules815]

We were scheduled to sail on Seaside 4/18/20.  I took the FCC and re-booked for 10/31/20.  

 

Crossing my fingers that we'll be able to make it, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't happen.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

5 hours ago, Beardface said:

I just get the feeling that, even if most of our normal lives resume, I can't see any kind of venues where large crowds gather reopening until a vaccine is released.  This disease spreads too easily and is too deadly to really bring people into large crowded situations until this is under control.

 

So my guess is that things like Conventions, Concerts, Sporting events, Resorts, Cruises, etc will all be closed until then.

 

I'm slightly more hopeful. I feel like meds will make a huge difference. If we can get meds which are reliable and keep Covid19  under control, things will likely bounce back quickly even without a vaccine. Plus, you have the herd immunity thing. 

 

With that said, I'm no longer counting on our Antarctica cruise in Jan of 2021.

Edited April 1, 2020 by BermudaBound2014

[brightestfan]

11 hours ago, Beardface said:

I just get the feeling that, even if most of our normal lives resume, I can't see any kind of venues where large crowds gather reopening until a vaccine is released.  This disease spreads too easily and is too deadly to really bring people into large crowded situations until this is under control.

 

So my guess is that things like Conventions, Concerts, Sporting events, Resorts, Cruises, etc will all be closed until then.

With that in mind, I was thinking about how crowded the theater gets on the Seaside during their evening shows--especially the one spotlighting Michael Jackson.

[Beardface]

17 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I'm slightly more hopeful. I feel like meds will make a huge difference. If we can get meds which are reliable and keep Covid19  under control, things will likely bounce back quickly even without a vaccine. Plus, you have the herd immunity thing. 

 

With that said, I'm no longer counting on our Antarctica cruise in Jan of 2021.

 

The problem is that there is no known medicine out there right now that treats COVID-19, at least not directly.  We can treat the symptoms, but once you get it, there currently is no way to help your body fight it off, medicinally, which is why it is SO bad and SO risky for people with weakened immune systems.  If we could treat it directly, and have a medicine out there that could actively fight the virus inside the body, this global situation would not nearly be as dire as it is right now, but we just don't have it.

 

This is why we are seeing these projections out there that these social distancing measures could last until the end of the year, if not beyond.  Until we can treat the virus directly, or develop a vaccine that has you create the antibodies that will help prevent you from getting it, there's not much more we can do.  And I've read a study that says, because of how easily this virus transmits through a crowd, you'll need upwards of 60% of your population to have caught it and recovered for herd immunity to kick in.

[BermudaBound2014]

@Beardface I think we are basically saying the same thing. Either effective meds or a vaccine will likely lift the distancing order. Mind you, I think it will take more than that to get cruises sailing again. For the reasons you have described above, I suspect herd immunity will kick in eventually. I personally believe the numbers reported are SUPER low compared to those who have already had it and didn't suffer tremendously. I absolutely believe Covid19 went through my workplace back in January before any testing was done. My community has a lot of direct connection to China since Detroit has the auto industry and I live in a University town (go Blue). But, these are just my personal beliefs of course.

 

PS: Can you please link me to any projections of social distancing lasting until the end of the year? 

[hamrag]

On 3/19/2020 at 10:32 AM, 8420PR said:

I think cruises will restart from end of April only in areas where Corona virus has been beaten, but due to travel restrictions the itineraries will look very different (as countries do not want to re-import the virus, our cross-border travel will be severely reduced) through to the end of the year.

 

My guess:  MSC's first cruise is from Genoa to Rome, Naples, Palermo and back in the first few week of May.  From Miami by beginning of June to the private islands only.

 

 

 

 

 

I agree with your rationale....assuming you mean 2021....😉