Cruising Again.....

[Debde]

I have my eye on a November 2020 cruise. This date is quite optimistic.  I'm hoping we have a vaccine by then. Once a vaccine is available-then I will feel comfortable booking again.

[brightestfan]

56 minutes ago, Debde said:

I have my eye on a November 2020 cruise. This date is quite optimistic.  I'm hoping we have a vaccine by then. Once a vaccine is available-then I will feel comfortable booking again.

I agree. We have one in November, too.

[8420PR]

13 hours ago, hamrag said:

I agree with your rationale....assuming you mean 2021....😉

I'm still optimistic that if Continental Europe can get their act together, May 2020 could be much more normal in many countries and MSC can restart a small portion of their European cruises at the end of May.  My guess is Caribbean cruises restarting from July at the earliest.

 

• China demonstrates what we need to do to suppress the virus.  Outside of Wuhan (and Hubei) people have been back at work for the last month, and schools reopening.   Still a way to go,  but I think the quarantines in Italy and Spain are comparable to Wuhan in many ways.
• Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore demonstrate what we need to do to manage the virus.  Testing and contact tracing, as well as quarantining people coming back from hot-spots.  

I'm naturally an optimistic person....  I've got my fingers crossed.... But I'm still not booking that first cruise on 30th May on MSC Seaside from Miami, because I think there is a very high chance it just won't happen.

[8420PR]

16 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

PS: Can you please link me to any projections of social distancing lasting until the end of the year? 

 

Here is a chart showing that if we want to minimize deaths by flattening the curve to within a certain ICU bed/respirator/medical staff capacity we could need on/off social distancing through to December 2021.   It is 3 weeks old, so I am sure the variables such as transmission rate (R0) and capacity could be updated, but the concept still applies.

 

Link to the paper:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf

 

More of the same type of modelling:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/COVID-19/

 

Note:  These are not peer reviewed scientific papers, they are the results of mathematical modelling.  

[Nymich]

Had one cruise cancelled in March...opted for cash.

Pulled back 1 deposit for another cruise for cash.  Deposits for September and December ready to shoot if need be.....of course for cash.

[Markanddonna]

I suppose a better question is which countries would passengers want to recreationally travel to and would these countries be willing and able to take care of them?

Europe: Not through this summer. They will be reeling from the impact. While they may encourage travelers to boost the economy, would you want to travel to a shell shocked region? Note: check out who now owns the port of Athens.  Hint: it isn't the Greeks.

 

China: No need to even comment.

 

Other countries in Asia: possible, but travel there might involve lots of new policies and restriction.  I can see face masks required by all who travel there. 

 

Caribbean: The virus will continue to spread and likely be not reported accurately

 

South America: Considering they refused to help the desperate cruise ships asking to port there, why would anyone trust them now?  Remember, only Japan and the USA eventually took in infected passengers that were on ships wandering the seas in a desperate plea for help.

 

Other Second and Third World countries: These poor countries will be ravaged by the virus. 

 

Personally, I see lots of countries' stomachs turning when cruising attempts to start up again. Talk about being between a rock and hardplace: travel dollars versus preventing another outbreak.

 

 

[JP82]

2 hours ago, Markanddonna said:

I suppose a better question is which countries would passengers want to recreationally travel to and would these countries be willing and able to take care of them?

Europe: Not through this summer. They will be reeling from the impact. While they may encourage travelers to boost the economy, would you want to travel to a shell shocked region? Note: check out who now owns the port of Athens.  Hint: it isn't the Greeks.

 

China: No need to even comment.

 

Other countries in Asia: possible, but travel there might involve lots of new policies and restriction.  I can see face masks required by all who travel there. 

 

Caribbean: The virus will continue to spread and likely be not reported accurately

 

South America: Considering they refused to help the desperate cruise ships asking to port there, why would anyone trust them now?  Remember, only Japan and the USA eventually took in infected passengers that were on ships wandering the seas in a desperate plea for help.

 

Other Second and Third World countries: These poor countries will be ravaged by the virus. 

 

Personally, I see lots of countries' stomachs turning when cruising attempts to start up again. Talk about being between a rock and hardplace: travel dollars versus preventing another outbreak.

 

 

You haven't mentioned the USA there? Reasonably sure people travel there to. I here it's quite the tourist destination also.

[Markanddonna]

26 minutes ago, JP82 said:

You haven't mentioned the USA there? Reasonably sure people travel there to. I here it's quite the tourist destination also.

You are absolutely correct!  I'm sure the USA will be a questionable travel location for many people.

[HappyInVan]

We know that COVID19 is very dangerous for seniors and those with health issues. Why is it so infectious?

 

SARS only infected thousands. However, COVID19 is projected to infect 60-70% of the population if is not stopped. That's because the COVID19 virus binds itself much better to human blood cells. Allowing the virus to replicate easily.

 

Germany only had 60 cases on February 29^th, and 60k on March 31. The math is simple. Each infected person has an incubation of about 5 days, before they start infecting others. Assuming that each infected only infects 5 more. In the second cycle of the 'chain of infection', there would be 25 infected.

 

In a two month period, there would be 12 chains (60 divided by 5). Starting with one infected, the disease would grow to infect 244 million.

 

That's 70% of the USA population. That's why the medical experts are worried. You don't need to be a math genius to do simple calculations like this.

 

The Caribbean nations started to refuse cruise ships from early February. In retrospect, they were brilliant. The Jamaicans (pop 2.9m) has identified only 53 infected.

 

I'm sure that they will be happy to take cruise ships again once Florida has things under control.

 

 

 

[hamrag]

On 4/5/2020 at 2:54 PM, Markanddonna said:

I suppose a better question is which countries would passengers want to recreationally travel to and would these countries be willing and able to take care of them?....

China: No need to even comment.....

 

One could argue that China feels more attractive than the US of A right now....and Europe, for that matter! 😉

[Markanddonna]

1 hour ago, hamrag said:

 

One could argue that China feels more attractive than the US of A right now....and Europe, for that matter! 😉

The more one learns of China's "One Road One Belt" policy the more they will be inclined to not support China in any way. Please do some research on this. I understood it generally but had no idea that China invests in struggling countries but demands their previous natural resources and ports as collateral!  Guess who owns the port of Athens? Eyes wide open now!

[hamrag]

1 hour ago, Markanddonna said:

The more one learns of China's "One Road One Belt" policy the more they will be inclined to not support China in any way. Please do some research on this. I understood it generally but had no idea that China invests in struggling countries but demands their previous natural resources and ports as collateral!  Guess who owns the port of Athens? Eyes wide open now!

Indeed, that sounds somewhat more attractive than the US of A!

[Beardface]

2 hours ago, hamrag said:

 

One could argue that China feels more attractive than the US of A right now....and Europe, for that matter! 😉

 

Don't get me wrong, there are A LOT of things that could have been handled better in the US than it was, and we should have had a handle on this long before we did.

 

But don't forget just how unbelievably badly China bungled this, allowing it to reach epidemic status before they alerted the rest of the planet what was going on.  They knew about it back in November, and by the end of December ordered all research into it destroyed about a week before they went public.  And there are estimates based on sulfur emissions (a byproduct of cremation) in China during this outbreak that they are are likely under reporting the number of cases they had (and possibly still have) by over 40x.  And lets not forget that this all originated in a wet market, the kind of market the rest of the global economy has been begging them to shut down for decades because of fears this exact scenario would play out.

[JP82]

I think until Europe and the USA and other nations currently in the grip of this thing are truly through it, we may want to consider saving the mud flinging at other nations and cultures until we have a better view of where we have honestly ended up ourselves and taken stock.

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, Beardface said:

But don't forget just how unbelievably badly China bungled this, allowing it to reach epidemic status before they alerted the rest of the planet what was going on.  They knew about it back in November, and by the end of December ordered all research into it destroyed about a week before they went public.  

 

Is there any evidence to back your amazing claims?

 

Fact is that after Wuhan CDC informed WHO on December 31st. There have been WHO observers in China. WHO and China produced a joint paper in mid-February...

 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

 

In fact, Chinese researchers have published many findings. On January 12, Chinese institutions and University of Sydney published the first genome studies.

 

http://virological.org/t/novel-2019-coronavirus-genome/319

 

Researchers worldwide have been in consultation with their Chinese colleagues and medical specialists

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic#History

 

 

I'll go with the official version. Local authorities were forced to acknowledge the disease in late December. Failed to contain the disease. Beijing stepped in and imposed a quarantine on Wuhan by January 23^th.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_in_mainland_China

 

There's uncertainty about when Beijing knew about the problem. But, Beijing acted decisively and the epidemic is over. They've done their jobs.

 

Western scientists knew about the threat in January and they must have alerted their governments. For example, USA imposed travel restrictions on China on February 3^rd.

 

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/coronavirus-us-travel-restrictions-monday/index.html

 

 

Those leaders must be held responsible for failing to contain the disease in February and March. They have yet to do their jobs.

 

In fact, the world has been treated to the farce of politicians publicly contradicting their medical advisers. The results are plain to see for those who have clear vision.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_response_to_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic

 

 

[Beardface]

6 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Is there any evidence to back your amazing claims?

 

Fact is that after Wuhan CDC informed WHO on December 31st. There have been WHO observers in China. WHO and China produced a joint paper in mid-February...

 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

 

In fact, Chinese researchers have published many findings. On January 12, Chinese institutions and University of Sydney published the first genome studies.

 

http://virological.org/t/novel-2019-coronavirus-genome/319

 

Researchers worldwide have been in consultation with their Chinese colleagues and medical specialists

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic#History

 

 

I'll go with the official version. Local authorities were forced to acknowledge the disease in late December. Failed to contain the disease. Beijing stepped in and imposed a quarantine on Wuhan by January 23^th.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_in_mainland_China

 

There's uncertainty about when Beijing knew about the problem. But, Beijing acted decisively and the epidemic is over. They've done their jobs.

 

Western scientists knew about the threat in January and they must have alerted their governments. For example, USA imposed travel restrictions on China on February 3^rd.

 

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/coronavirus-us-travel-restrictions-monday/index.html

 

 

Those leaders must be held responsible for failing to contain the disease in February and March. They have yet to do their jobs.

 

In fact, the world has been treated to the farce of politicians publicly contradicting their medical advisers. The results are plain to see for those who have clear vision.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_response_to_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic

 

 

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/how-early-signs-of-the-coronavirus-were-spotted-spread-and-throttled-in-china

 

Test results from multiple labs in December suggested that there was an outbreak of a highly infectious virus. However, the results failed to trigger a response that could have prepared the public, despite being fed into an infectious disease control system that was designed to alert China's top health officials about outbreaks.

 

...

 

Around that time, local doctors sent at least eight other patient samples from hospitals around Wuhan to multiple Chinese genomics companies, including industry heavyweight BGI, as they worked to determine what was behind a growing number of cases of unexplained respiratory disease. The results all pointed to a dangerous Sars-like virus.

 

That was days before China notified the World Health Organisation (WHO) on Dec 31 about the emergence of an unidentified infectious disease, two weeks before it shared the virus' genome sequence with the world, and crucially, more than three weeks before Chinese authorities confirmed publicly that the virus was spreading between people.

 

Concerns about the new disease were initially kept within a small group of medical workers, researchers and officials.

 

...

 

On Dec 30, Dr Li Wenliang was one of several in Wuhan who sounded the first alarms and released initial evidence online. Dr Li, who was punished for releasing the information, would perish from the disease five weeks later, after contracting it from a patient.

 

On Jan 1, after several batches of genome sequence results had been returned to hospitals and submitted to health authorities, an employee of one genomics company received a phone call from an official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission, ordering the company to stop testing samples from Wuhan related to the new disease and destroy all existing samples.The employee spoke on condition of anonymity, saying the company was told to immediately cease releasing test results and information about the tests, and report any future results to authorities.

 

Then on Jan 3, China's National Health Commission (NHC), the nation's top health authority, ordered institutions not to publish any information related to the unknown disease, and ordered labs to transfer any samples they had to designated testing institutions, or to destroy them. The order, which Caixin has seen, did not specify any designated testing institutions.

 

It was Jan 9 when the Chinese authorities finally announced that a novel coronavirus was behind Wuhan's viral pneumonia outbreak. Even then, the transmissibility of the virus was downplayed, leaving the public unaware of the imminent danger.

[HappyInVan]

35 minutes ago, Beardface said:

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/how-early-signs-of-the-coronavirus-were-spotted-spread-and-throttled-in-china

 

Test results from multiple labs in December suggested that there was an outbreak of a highly infectious virus. However, the results failed to trigger a response that could have prepared the public, despite being fed into an infectious disease control system that was designed to alert China's top health officials about outbreaks.

 

...

 

Around that time, local doctors sent at least eight other patient samples from hospitals around Wuhan to multiple Chinese genomics companies, including industry heavyweight BGI, as they worked to determine what was behind a growing number of cases of unexplained respiratory disease. The results all pointed to a dangerous Sars-like virus.

 

 

 

I see no evidence to support your claim ... "They knew about it back in November, and by the end of December ordered all research into it destroyed about a week before they went public. "

 

The Straits Times article quoted ...

 

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caixin

 

What the ST actually said was ...

 

"Two days later on Jan 3, the National Health Commission issued its gag order and said the Wuhan pneumonia samples needed to be treated as highly pathogenic microorganisms - and that any samples needed to be moved to approved testing facilities or destroyed.

One virologist told Caixin that even the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences was not qualified for the tests and told to destroy samples in its lab."

 

In fact, the article goes into some detail about the history in December. Pretty in line with what's outlined in the wikipedia summary. The additional information is about the role of private genome testing companies.

 

On December 27, just 4 days before Wuhan CDC informed WHO ...

 

"In an unusual move, the company did not send back results, but instead called the doctor on Dec 27. "They just called us and said it was a new coronavirus," Dr Zhao said."

 

 

[Beardface]

1 minute ago, HappyInVan said:

 

I see no evidence to support your claim ... "They knew about it back in November, and by the end of December ordered all research into it destroyed about a week before they went public. "

 

The Straits Times article quoted ...

 

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caixin

 

What the ST actually said was ...

 

"Two days later on Jan 3, the National Health Commission issued its gag order and said the Wuhan pneumonia samples needed to be treated as highly pathogenic microorganisms - and that any samples needed to be moved to approved testing facilities or destroyed.

One virologist told Caixin that even the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences was not qualified for the tests and told to destroy samples in its lab."

 

In fact, the article goes into some detail about the history in December. Pretty in line with what's outlined in the wikipedia summary. The additional information is about the role of private genome testing companies.

 

On December 27, just 4 days before Wuhan CDC informed WHO ...

 

"In an unusual move, the company did not send back results, but instead called the doctor on Dec 27. "They just called us and said it was a new coronavirus," Dr Zhao said."

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report

 

The first case of someone suffering from Covid-19 can be traced back to 17 November, according to media reports on unpublished Chinese government data.

The report, in the South China Morning Post, said Chinese authorities had identified at least 266 people who contracted the virus last year and who came under medical surveillance, and the earliest case was 17 November – weeks before authorities announced the emergence of the new virus.

[Markanddonna]

Spend some time researching this topic "One Road One Belt" policy. I sort of knew just a bit, but respectable journalists from around the world have been warning us for years about China. 

[HappyInVan]

35 minutes ago, Beardface said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report

 

The first case of someone suffering from Covid-19 can be traced back to 17 November, according to media reports on unpublished Chinese government data.

 

 

This is what the Guardian  (March 13) said ...

 

"The data obtained by the Post, which the Guardian has not been able to verify, said a 55-year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to contract Covid-19..."

 

The SCMP article did not say that China suppressed the info.

 

The Straits Times article (Feb 28)  did not mention this. The Caixin report did not mention this, and they quoted medical sources in China.

 

The WHO does not confirm this. Genetic analysis does suggest that not all of the early cases fit into a neat pattern. So, it is possible that there were cases in November. However, no one else has suggested that China (who specifically in the Chinese government?) knew and suppressed the information.

 

In any case, it's a great leap forward to suggest that China is responsible for the disaster in Europe and USA. The governments had plenty of notice, Much more than the Chinese.

 

Some governments were ready. Others were not. Some responded decisively like the Chinese and Koreans. Others did not. Some politicians fought their science advisers. Others did not.

 

Please be careful when you are accusing others of heinous crimes. 

 

Personally, I have no qualms about visiting China, if I had any interest in visiting mega-cities.

Edited April 7, 2020 by HappyInVan

[hamrag]

1 hour ago, Markanddonna said:

Spend some time researching this topic "One Road One Belt" policy. I sort of knew just a bit, but respectable journalists from around the world have been warning us for years about China. 

That sounds familiarly like 'America First'....try researching its' origins....😉

[Markanddonna]

First, research the policy and then please comment. While it might sound similar (it has little in common with the implications,)  it boils down to the influence of communism versus democracy. I prefer democracy.

 

[JAGR]

7 hours ago, Markanddonna said:

The more one learns of China's "One Road One Belt" policy the more they will be inclined to not support China in any way. Please do some research on this. I understood it generally but had no idea that China invests in struggling countries but demands their previous natural resources and ports as collateral!  Guess who owns the port of Athens? Eyes wide open now!

I assume you meant "precious" not previous natural resources.  But, I'm from the western part of Westerville, stuck out by Annehurst!

[Markanddonna]

Yes, precious. Thanks for the catch! Hope all is well in Annehurst, the other side of town. I'm reading Trump vs China now. So informative and matches everything I have observed over the past twenty years. 

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, Markanddonna said:

While it might sound similar (it has little in common with the implications,)  it boils down to the influence of communism versus democracy. I prefer democracy.

 

 

Oh Dear, this is definitely going off topic. Could I persuade you to discuss philosophical issues at the destination forums? Kinda cultural meeting-of-the-minds.

 

For myself, I prefer to arrive at conclusions based on facts. The bottom line... where is it safe to travel and when?