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Solvency of Cruise Lines

Steve Q

By Steve Q,
in Regent Seven Seas Cruises

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Steve Q

Steve Q

Posted
Posted

Below is a link to an article in today’s WSJ. Not certain if you will be able to access it.

 

The author references a cruise line analyst that believes that the three large cruise line operators have sufficient capital to survive for the next year. The fear seems to be that the companies will not bounce back as rapidly as after 2001 and 2008. The belief is that many customers will be apprehensive about rebooking if the Coronavirus is “still prevalent and untreatable”.

 

Lastly, he states that “Talk of the Trump administration offering aid has faded as opponents point out that cruise lines register their vessels in places like Liberia and Panama to avoid taxes and regulation.”

 

it certainly will be an interesting next few months.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-landlubbers-venture-back-onto-cruises-in-time-11584712726?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

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Pcardad

Pcardad

Posted
Posted

Assume everyone will get it. The problem isn't getting it, the problem is too many people requiring hospitalization at the same time. There will always be cruising...hopefully we will still be here to cruise but in a few months, when most people have gotten it, it will resume.

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Dolebludger

Dolebludger

Posted
Posted

Steve Q,

 

Thank you for posting that well written and researched article. I hope all here read it. In order to read it, I had to sign up for emails from the National Review, but that was no problem for me. This article described the problem — that the “big three” cruise lines have been allowed  by their lenders to get into debt of 3X (or more) of their pre tax income. Most of us here know that this is not sustainable. 

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mrlevin

mrlevin

Posted
Posted (edited)

That article talks more about CCL than NCLH.  NCLH is in a lot worse shape and has a CEO experienced in running a cruise line into the ground; yes, he was fired almost six months before the bankruptcy but the new management inherited a company too far in debt to resuscitate.

 

Just my two confederate sense.

 

Marc

 

Edited to add:  One other item about NCLH versus their competitors is that, relatively, NCLH management has a much lower level of stock ownership.

Edited by mrlevin
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slidebite

slidebite

Posted
Posted

Interesting tidbit that even those without strong financial acumen should understand.

Coronavirus may shut down the three big operators for way more than a month or even a season. Their collective market value, about $75 billion at the beginning of the year, was barely $13 billion on Thursday. While well below the fully depreciated value of their vessels and other property net of debt, that discount is only meaningful if they can survive and come out as viable companies after the virus fades.

And that last sentence is not a throwaway "if"

 

This is serious.

 

Let's all hope they can get back to making some semblance of revenue this summer.

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Wendy The Wanderer

Wendy The Wanderer

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Dolebludger said:

Marc, 

 

I need some educating. I had thought the CEO of NCLH is FDR. If not who is the CEO? If so, what line did he run into the ground so it was not capable of saving? Just for my education here.

 

Not Marc, but I know he's talking about Renaissance.

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Travelcat2

Travelcat2

Posted
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Dolebludger said:

Marc, 

 

I need some educating. I had thought the CEO of NCLH is FDR. If not who is the CEO? If so, what line did he run into the ground so it was not capable of saving? Just for my education here.

 

Each NCL company has their own CEO/President.  The President of Regent is Jason Montague.  Frank Del Rio is at the top and is CEO over all three brands.  

 

FDR did not run anything into the ground.  There are so many differing stories as to what happened.  FDR did an amazing job with Oceania and Regent.  Then, when NCLH purchased Regent, the old CEO disappeared (another story) and, likely due to FDR's successes, was made CEO over everything.  They do not do that for a man that ran a company into the ground.

 

Keep in mind that there is a ton of conflicting news right now - much of it is completely untrue.  This allegation falls into that category.

Edited by Travelcat2
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mrlevin

mrlevin

Posted
Posted (edited)

FDR was fired in April 2001.  Bankruptcy was in September 2001 shortly after 9/11.

 

Marc

 

PS in my opinion, even though FDR is a brilliant man, Oceania wouldn't have gotten off the ground if it weren't for Jason Montague.

Edited by mrlevin
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mrlevin

mrlevin

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Dolebludger said:

Thanks for the information, Marc. So shortly after that, FDR organized Oceania (originally Oceana until trademark issues emerged) and then acquired some former REN ships for that line?  The picture is now very clear to me. 

 

Richard, I am glad you remember that trademark issue; many don't understand it or have forgotten it.  FDR still pronounces it Oceana even though that is not the name of the cruise line.

 

Marc

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Dolebludger

Dolebludger

Posted
Posted (edited)

So, I see. FDR was Ren’s CEO about five or six months before it went under. Then he organizes O and acquires some of Ren’s former ships. Then O enters into an alliance with RSSC. Then FDR becomes CEO of that combination, taking over from Mark Conroy.. Then that combination is acquired by NCLH. Then FDR becomes CEO of NCLH. Am I wrong anywhere? 

Edited by Dolebludger
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UUNetBill

UUNetBill

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Dolebludger said:

So, I see. FDR was Ren’s CEO about five or six months before it went under. Then he organizes O and acquires some of Ren’s former ships. Then O enters into an alliance with RSSC. Then FDR becomes CEO of that combination, taking over from Mark Conroy.. Then that combination is acquired by NCLH. Then FDR becomes CEO of NCLH. Am I wrong anywhere? 

Which reminds me why I don't watch daytime soaps.

 

Frankly, I just want to cruise - I don't really care who's running the company or driving the ship.  JMHO.

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Travelcat2

Travelcat2

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Dolebludger said:

So, I see. FDR was Ren’s CEO about five or six months before it went under. Then he organizes O and acquires some of Ren’s former ships. Then O enters into an alliance with RSSC. Then FDR becomes CEO of that combination, taking over from Mark Conroy.. Then that combination is acquired by NCLH. Then FDR becomes CEO of NCLH. Am I wrong anywhere? 

 

Not sure what you meant by Oceania entering into an alliance with Regent.  Prestige Cruise Holdings purchased Regent from private owners (do not recall the name).  Then Frank Del Rio became CEO of the two brands under PCH.  During the few years that PCH owned Regent, the ships were refurbished (badly needed) and the fleet was brought up to a new standard.  When NCLH purchased Regent (and Oceania) it infused a ton of money into the brands.  This is when Oceania built two ships and now Regent has also built two.  The existing ships are in better condition than they have been in since we started sailing with Regent in 2004.

 

Agree with Bill, we just want to cruise

 

P.S.  Most/many of us call Oceania “Oceana” as it is simply easier to say.  

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Bellaggio Cruisers

Bellaggio Cruisers

Posted
Posted

Who cares what happened 20 years ago?

I loved Renaissance.  Sailed several times.. so many different issues caused it to go under. 
None of us really know what the future brings. Certainly not about Regent. 
Let’s just all hope we make it through this crisis and in a few months we can enjoy life and cruising again!

sheila

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mrlevin

mrlevin

Posted
Posted

Yes, the officers do get partially paid in stock and whenever they are given stock enough is sold to pay taxes.  Still, over 95% of the shares are held by institutional investors compared to 76.5% for CCL and 74.3% for RCL.

 

Marc

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Dolebludger

Dolebludger

Posted
Posted

Thanks all for the additional info! Understand that we got caught up in the Ren bankruptcy in 2001. So we are gun shy about booking on a cruise line (even after the coronavirus mess is over), in that all of them appear to be carrying a higher debt load than is sustainable. I have time on my hands as we are of the age where we have been advised to stay home. Most of our town is closed now anyway. So I am interested in the recent history of how the cruise lines got in this position. 

 

We too would like to start cruising again, but we don't want our booking to get caught up in another bankruptcy, I have noticed that none of the upper management of these cruise conglomerates seem to be buying up stock in their company, despite bargain basement prices. Generally, insiders buying up their corporation's stock is an indication that the stock will recover. Sadly, In don't see that in the cruise industry.

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