Solvency of Cruise Lines

[Dolebludger]

One factor that is important in assessing the bankruptcy risk is the length of time the cruise lines will be unable to cruise. That’s a big unknown, especially as there are many more countries involved in addition to the US. The longer this lasts, the worse the financial situation will become.  And the more hesitant customers will become about putting any money down  on a cruise, which will further damage the financial position if the lines.

[Zqueeze1]

3 hours ago, BarbarianPaul said:

Or try to catch a falling knife and lose what you invested. That’s my free opinion.

With the stock down to 12 bucks today, I jumped on the roller coaster and will ride it out. I have a sell point to protect my investment, which I think is obtainable before the worst case scenario could happen  As long as this virus follows the same track as it has in China and Korea, I should be ok. If I’m wrong, it won’t be the first time, but I’m willing to take a risk and hope to have it pay out. 

[Dolebludger]

Zqueeze1,

 

Investing in a "troubled stock" is always a gamble, and I'm sure you know that. We hope that your gamble pays off well for you. If it does, we will feel safe in booking another Regent cruise.

[Mudhen]

Here's hoping you makes barrels of money and can book a cruise in the Regent Suite! We almost got to see it on the canceled Explorer TA. I'm counting on you. Want to play that grand piano!

Best,

L&J

[Steve Q]

Carnival Corporation suspended it’s stock dividends today.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/carnival-to-suspend-dividend-and-stock-buybacks-expects-to-remain-in-compliance-with-debt-covenants-2020-03-31?mod=home-page

[GrJ Berkshire]

Reality now being seen across the pond. Ever the President has realised this, maybe a more realistic approach will occur now from Regent to ensure they survive this. This is not a gimme....... 

Scrap plans for a sixth ship, realistic possible restarts on say, maybe  Sept 1st, 2020 , scrap dividends, rather than fantasy restarts in May.

[Guerncruising]

It strikes me that this virus does not respect capitalism and the way that the world currently runs. No amount of money is stopping it, merely slowing it down, so it will be here for sometime longer yet. A bit of realism as per GrJ Berkshire talking of a September start would be more appropriate. 

Time to buy stocks in a company which may not exist? I am sure that Regent and NCLH will do all in their power to remain afloat (pun intended - need some humour).

 I sincerely hope so, I look forward to cruising again as soon as safe to do so. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Guerncruising
Error

[tubeamps]

6 minutes ago, Guerncruising said:

It strikes me that this virus does not respect capitalism and the way that the world currently runs. No amount of money is stopping it, merely slowing it down, so it will be here for sometime longer yet. A bit of realism as per GrJ Berkshire talking of a September start would be more appropriate. 

Time to buy stocks in a company which may not exist? I am sure that Regent and NCLH will do all in their power to remain afloat (pun intended - need some humour).

 I sincerely hope so, I look forward to cruising again as soon as safe to do so. 

Agree completely. I am a little surprised at the level of denial of reality among the CC members. A lot of members talking about their upcoming June, July cruises and I think what planet do these people live on?

 

Some people seem to think that airlines will be happily flying at near normal capacity in two or three months....not going to happen. Getting  flights to and from any port of embarkation and debarkation will be iffy at best.

[Guerncruising]

@tubeamps I have also been thinking that airlines will need time to check aircraft which have been grounded for sometime and also crew who may need time in sims or whatever. The impact has the potential to be quite huge. 

[wristband]

further to Tubeamps point - who would want to board a cruise ship in June or July? 

 

The country is going to be shut down well beyond April and the spread of COVID-19 will not be staunched by Memorial Day.

[Steve Q]

In addition, those planning cruises for later this Fall are assuming that the virus will not resurface. While we all hope that it does not, many respected doctors believe that it will. Any resumption of the virus among cruise passengers will undoubtedly result in sailings once again being curtailed. I cannot see how there could not be any other result.

[Steve Q]

Seeing what is happening to the passengers still sequestered on the cruise ships near Florida might give one pause before boarding again anytime soon.

 

https://apnews.com/564c86d2b78a6e1b1f0be7451848635a

[orvil]

I've got a June 14 cruise.  Due to our work requirements, lack of vacation flexibility and the need to plan well in advance for vacation time, rebooking is problematic.  I'm patiently waiting for the time period to pass in order to cancel the cruise.  It's fully paid up with no trip insurance.  I will cancel it at the first opportunity.  I'm just hoping that I don't have to make a claim as a creditor.

 

I will have to repeat this process with the air line and the hotel, too.

Edited April 1, 2020 by orvil

[Dolebludger]

I also don’t see how cruising can resume in May. There are port closures in too many countries involved to  make a prediction of when they will open.  Problems with flight availability has been mentioned. And even if needed flights show as available, airlines recently have been cancel flights with what they think is too few passengers. .

[GrJ Berkshire]

1 hour ago, Dolebludger said:

I also don’t see how cruising can resume in May. There are port closures in too many countries involved to  make a prediction of when they will open.  Problems with flight availability has been mentioned. And even if needed flights show as available, airlines recently have been cancel flights with what they think is too few passengers. .

You also must consider which airlines still exist.  Many will not both AA and BA are in significant trouble, in Europe many smaller airlines and regional carriers are already on the verge of bankruptcy. We live 20 miles from LHR, not seen a plane in or out today normally 1 every 2 minutes.

[Travelcat2]

Since all of us are guessing as to when cruising will resume, I would not put much faith in any predictions - whether it be Regent, or anyone else.

 

There are so many people out there that don't have a clue about the future but decide to make predictions and/or make false claims about the virus.  The one thing that I figured out early on (and posted on CC) was the claim that people that are not sick do not need masks.  The claims were obviously untrue.  Now that China and others have called the U.S. out on it, masks are being suggested for everyone (duh!) 

 

P.S.  Regent had no trouble whatsoever booking flights for May cruises - even though they will likely be cancelled.  

Edited April 1, 2020 by Travelcat2

[UUNetBill]

I can say this - even if every case of Coronavirus dried up today and there was a 0% new infection rate, the idea of airlines and cruise ships getting back to normal by May, June, or even July is laughable.  There are just too many unknowns about this whole thing to make any kind of reliable predictions, IMO.

[wristband]

Today, Wimbledon & the Edinburgh Festival (draws hundreds of thousands) were cancelled.  Both were July - August events.

The concert and festival business and Broadway shows are cancelled through the summer and will likely expand that to the fall.

 

Virginia's Governor ordered, starting today, state residents must remain sequestered at home until June 10 (ten weeks!). 

 

Bill makes a good point - there is no way cruise ships will be gassing up this summer.  Sensible adults are not going to board a cruise ship over the next four - six months.  Look at the terrible situation right now passengers are in on the two Holland America ships off Florida.

 

[mrlevin]

8 minutes ago, wristband said:

 

 

Bill makes a good point - there is no way cruise ships will be gassing up this summer.  Sensible adults are not going to board a cruise ship over the next four - six months.  Look at the terrible situation right now passengers are in on the two Holland America ships off Florida.

 

 

Yet NCLH is making passengers make final payment on their cruises in order to eventually get all their money back (either through cancellation by the cruise line or the "reassurance" plan).  If they don't make final payment and cancel now they will lose their money in accordance with country/travel agent specific rules.  

 

Inaction is causing perverse behaviour.

 

Just my two confederate cents,

 

Marc

[sanne]

Australia... There are 8 ships in NSW waters and 1 in WA. None are Australian ships.

 

All want to come ashore. 8000 passengers trying to get off. They will not move. What a disaster. Who could possibly think that cruising is going to resume any time soon. This has only just begun. 

 

 

[Travelcat2]

1 hour ago, UUNetBill said:

I can say this - even if every case of Coronavirus dried up today and there was a 0% new infection rate, the idea of airlines and cruise ships getting back to normal by May, June, or even July is laughable.  There are just too many unknowns about this whole thing to make any kind of reliable predictions, IMO.

 

While I agree with most of your post, I disagree with how long it would take to get cruise ships ready to sail again.  The ships are being “exercised” (for lack of a better word).  They would need to move into place, get the crew onboard, load food, etc.  This would not take 3 months.  

 

The airlines would also not take 3 months to get their fleet flying again.  It would not happen all at once, but it is surprising how quickly they can get into the air again.  I think about British Airways that fairly regularly goes on strike around August/September.  They have thousands of passengers waiting to board planes.  Flights very quickly get back in the air once the strike ends.

 

I take all of these predictions (including my own) as fiction - something not to be believed.  What may or may not be fiction, is that states will “recover” at different rates.  It is likely that states on the west coast will recover before states in the middle of the U.S. (based on when each state had their first case of the virus).  Not sure how that would play out.  

 

A question in my mind is whether countries will open to airlines and cruise ships at a different rate.  For instance, Hong Kong and Mainland China had the virus before Europe.  So, will Asian itineraries be able to sail before countries in Europe?  

 

When I read this thread, it seems that some posters feel that there will be some magic day in the future when the entire world will open again.  I do not see it that way.  I see things returning to “normal” slowly and safely.  If, for instance, ships cannot go to Canada or the U.K., perhaps they can safely go to other ports.  

 

There are some of us that will sail when Regent determines it is safe to do so and others that think that we are “from another planet” (not a kind comment).  Some of us are not ready to book a cruise for 2021.  Everyone is entitled to make their own decisions........as long as what they choose to do is legal.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Travelcat2

[UUNetBill]

18 minutes ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

While I agree with most of your post, I disagree with how long it would take to get cruise ships ready to sail again.  The ships are being “exercised” (for lack of a better word).  They would need to move into place, get the crew onboard, load food, etc.  This would not take 3 months.  

 

The airlines would also not take 3 months to get their fleet flying again.  It would not happen all at once, but it is surprising how quickly they can get into the air again.  I think about British Airways that fairly regularly goes on strike around August/September.  They have thousands of passengers waiting to board planes.  Flights very quickly get back in the air once the strike ends.

 

I take all of these predictions (including my own) as fiction - something not to be believed.  What may or may not be fiction, is that states will “recover” at different rates.  It is likely that states on the west coast will recover before states in the middle of the U.S. (based on when each state had their first case of the virus).  Not sure how that would play out.  

 

A question in my mind is whether countries will open to airlines and cruise ships at a different rate.  For instance, Hong Kong and Mainland China had the virus before Europe.  So, will Asian itineraries be able to sail before countries in Europe?  

 

When I read this thread, it seems that some posters feel that there will be some magic day in the future when the entire world will open again.  I do not see it that way.  I see things returning to “normal” slowly and safely.  If, for instance, ships cannot go to Canada or the U.K., perhaps they can safely go to other ports.  

 

There are some of us that will sail when Regent determines it is safe to do so and others that think that we are “from another planet” (not a kind comment).  Some of us are not ready to book a cruise for 2021.  Everyone is entitled to make their own decisions........as long as what they choose to do is legal.

Jackie, my post spoke more to having countries accepting foreign travelers and ports being open than having planes and ships ready. I’m sure that Regent could have their ships ready to go within a week or two, but having ports open and tour operators running will take quite a bit longer, IMO.

[Travelcat2]

38 minutes ago, UUNetBill said:

Jackie, my post spoke more to having countries accepting foreign travelers and ports being open than having planes and ships ready. I’m sure that Regent could have their ships ready to go within a week or two, but having ports open and tour operators running will take quite a bit longer, IMO.

 

Sorry Bill - I began just answering your post and then starts addressing other posts.  When I respond to your posts, I feel safer - simple as that.

[UUNetBill]

14 hours ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

Sorry Bill - I began just answering your post and then starts addressing other posts.  When I respond to your posts, I feel safer - simple as that.

Oh, I guess I need to work on my snark and nastiness.  I'll get right on that.   🤣

[orvil]

We are an airline family.  The airlines are on their knees right now.  They are capital intensive, cash flow businesses just like cruise lines.  Some of them are not going to survive.  Their cash flow has been cut by 95% overnight.  Neither the airlines or cruise industry can shed expenses fast enough to stop the bleeding.  The only reason there aren't massive furloughs right now is because of government intervention and voluntary leaves of absences by the staff.  I expect the cruise lines will go into bankruptcy and restructure.

 

The airlines have been deemed by the governments around the world as strategic assets.  Cruise lines, not so much.  Even so, while the airlines are flying at about 10% of their previous operation, domestic services will be the first to come back.  That's going to take a while.  International service resumptions will lag significantly.  While we tend to look at our US domestic situation, Africa, South America and parts of Asia have to weather this situation, too.  They have even fewer defenses than we do.

 

I wouldn't plan on traveling internationally for at least a year.  The airlines will not resemble what they looked like last month any time in the next year.  It's going to be a while before this is all sorted out.  Until then, we will just have to embrace the suck.

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by orvil