Solvency of Cruise Lines

[pappy1022]

1 hour ago, Dolebludger said:

Steve, 

i too expect fare cuts, just like after 9-11. We took a cruise to Tahiti shortly after that at greatly reduced fare. Too many were afraid to fly or travel on a cruise ship, so the lines had to do some heavy promoting to attract guests. And back then, that fear wasn’t rational. What is somebody going to do? Hijack a ship and fly it into a building? And the airports had the military for security. Now, the fear of cruising has factual basis, as we don’t know when this virus might come back. And airports can get very crowded, even though Regent ships really don’t. But the majority of people don’t know that Regent ships aren’t crowded. 

Some people still think that because Regent doen't have as many passengers and it isn't as cowded that it's OK to cruise. Get real and look whatr is happeniong around the world. COVID-19 spreads like wildflowers and you wouldn't get me on a cruise (even the sterile Regent) until this is figurred out and we have a solution in place. I don't care if Regent ships arent crowded. People touch elevator buttons. bars, plates, slot machines etc. Are you listening to what the medical people are saying? This is serious stuff. Start acting responsibly.

[Dolebludger]

Yes, I agree, one is not immune from the virus, regardless of the environment. But, I think it is agreed that staying out of crowds is a good way to lessen the chances of conveyance. A Regent cruise doesn’t expose me to any more of a crowded environment than going to a restaurant/bar in my mountain resort town of  18,000 people. Yes, all those have been closed by State order, as they pose some risk. But if you have ever cruised on a mass market ship, you will know what kind of crowding I am talking about. It is extreme, and it does not exist on Regent. In fairly normal times, I wouldn’t be concerned about cruising Regent at all. What I would be concerned about would be the huge overcrowded conditions at airports and on airlines.

[JMARINER]

Just my two cents.

 

Unlike all other "crisis" of recent past, this on will have afar longer lingering effect on the cruise industry.

 

Who would really hazard to go in a cruise ship? No one, until there is a reliable vaccine or if one knows that they had had Covfid19 and had the antibody test. Or maybe if they come up with a miracle  cure drug. Who would take the chance? What walk around the ship all day with a mask? Hope that the med center has a ventilator? Wonder if the next port will allow and infected ship to dock.

 

I don't see a true recovery in the cruise industry for at least a year and more likely 18 months. Sorry.

 

Can the cruise lines survive this long?  For most industries they couldn't. but the cruise lines are high mortgaged and I suspects that their existing creditors (banks) will have to extend the cruise lines credit to see them through until profitability returns.

 

J

 

 

 

[Dolebludger]

You may well be right. Many people probably will refuse to go on a cruise for a long time. Especially as cruise ships with infected passengers have been treated so poorly at US and international ports. However, my greatest fear is the overcrowding at airports and on airlines, rather than a fear of it on a Regent cruise. I understand that airports and airlines are not crowded places right now, but they well might be again when the ban is lifted. I don’t want to ever experience what I did the last time we flew. And as we have to fly to any Regent cruise, we just aren’t going for the time being.

 

[Travelcat2]

Speaking only for myself and our cruising friends, we will sail on Regent as soon as it is safe to do so.  I personally feel that cruise ships will resume this year. Since we have been unable to cruise this year (so far), we now have cruises booked in November 2020, January 2021, March 2021 and October 2021.  If things change for any reason, we will accept it with the same positive attitude.  I’m finding the negativity to be upsetting and is not helping anyone.  

 

If I were to get the virus and didn’t live through it, I would hope that I would leave this world thinking how wonderful our lives have been - how thankful I am for my family and friends and how much we have enjoyed our time on Regent.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Travelcat2

[cruiseluv]

5 hours ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

If I were to get the virus and didn’t live through it, I would hope that I would leave this world thinking how wonderful our lives have been - how thankful I am for my family and friends and how much we have enjoyed our time on Regent.

I couldnt agree with that more! And its for that reason that I hope that not only the cruise industry, but our country, is open for business soon! 

[Gray Eagle02]

“Carnival, the largest of the three, is the most likely to survive, generating nearly double the trailing revenue as Royal Caribbean. One also can't write off Royal Caribbean, as the player with the strong margins. Norwegian seems to be the odd man out here, but it's more likely to be acquired -- at a pittance, but acquired nonetheless -- unless the market is so bad in a year or two that an oversupply of ships exists for what could be dicey demand. “

Read full article here:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/05/will-carnival-royal-caribbean-and-norwegian-cruise.aspx

Edited April 6, 2020 by Gray Eagle02

[RJ2002]

20 minutes ago, Gray Eagle02 said:

“Carnival, the largest of the three, is the most likely to survive, generating nearly double the trailing revenue as Royal Caribbean. One also can't write off Royal Caribbean, as the player with the strong margins. Norwegian seems to be the odd man out here, but it's more likely to be acquired -- at a pittance, but acquired nonetheless -- unless the market is so bad in a year or two that an oversupply of ships exists for what could be dicey demand. “

Read full article here:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/05/will-carnival-royal-caribbean-and-norwegian-cruise.aspx

 

It was good to see all three with nice percentage gains today.  Notably, the Saudis have acquired a large stake in CCL.

[rallydave]

2 hours ago, Gray Eagle02 said:

“Carnival, the largest of the three, is the most likely to survive, generating nearly double the trailing revenue as Royal Caribbean. One also can't write off Royal Caribbean, as the player with the strong margins. Norwegian seems to be the odd man out here, but it's more likely to be acquired -- at a pittance, but acquired nonetheless -- unless the market is so bad in a year or two that an oversupply of ships exists for what could be dicey demand. “

Read full article here:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/05/will-carnival-royal-caribbean-and-norwegian-cruise.aspx

Sure doesn't look good to the future of NCLH based on this article??

[Wendy The Wanderer]

5 hours ago, rallydave said:

Sure doesn't look good to the future of NCLH based on this article??

 

I frankly don't care a fig for NCLH, or NCL itself for that matter.  I care about Regent.  I care that if cruising remains a viable way to travel and enjoy the world, that these wonderful ships survive with the great service, staff and everything else that we have loved.  Maybe separately, maybe under some large umbrella.

 

I care about the luxury small-ship experiences that I have had as well, especially my favourite of all ships, the Paul Gauguin--I don't care about their parent company, Ponant, I only care about that ship, its crew, and the wonderful cruise experience that it has provided.

[Travelcat2]

I feel that we need to stop believing everything that we hear or read as so much of it has been dispelled.  Plus, constant negativity about our future or the future of NCLH is not good for our mental health.  

 

In terms of NCLH and Regent.  Remember that some top officials of Regent are now heading up NCLH and many are on the Board of Directors.  So, when we discuss what NCLH does, we are speaking about the same people that headed up Regent for so many years (and continues to do so).

 

There are so many positive things that have happened with Regent since it was acquired by NCLH.  Perhaps we forget about it.  Regent hadn't built a new ship in a very long time.  Now with NCLH, Regent has two new ships (and might have a third - but I'm guessing that it may be delayed).  The fabulous menu in CR was not available previously.  Filet Mignon, lobster, and many other high end items were not on the everyday menu.  Even alcohol in the bars had gone up a notch (serving three types of Patron tequila for instance).  The refurbishment of Regent ships has been over the top.  In the years that we have sailed on Regent, we have not seen such dramatic refurbishments as has been done since it has been owned by NCLH.  

 

Some of us (not me) look back at Regent when it was privately owned and long for those days.  Yes - they did gift gifts to passengers for various reasons and the crew was still wonderful.  But, the soft goods (bedding, towels, curtains) were getting threadbare, carpets looked stained and were rarely replaced.  When PCH acquired Regent, things were worse for a short time before they got better.  The ships were brought into shape and were looking really good.

 

As we age, the "old days" tend to sound wonderful. Before this devastating pandemic, cruise lines and the world were doing very well.  On March 13th, the day cruise ships stopped sailing, many things have changed.  Naysayers do not believe that the cruise lines can recover.  I believe that they will be back and will be better than ever.  

 

 

[bissel]

Good retrospection and summation. I fervently hope your predications are right.

[Gray Eagle02]

“What Will It Take to Get Cruises Sailing Again?”

https://www.travelandleisure.com/cruises/cruises-after-coronavirus

[Dolebludger]

I want to clarify something I posted above. I said that we did not like the experience on NCL cruise line.  This has nothing to do with NCLH, which also owns Regent. Now, Regent, we like!  And all I know about the financial condition of either is what our financial advisor tells us. 

[Travelcat2]

31 minutes ago, Gray Eagle02 said:

“What Will It Take to Get Cruises Sailing Again?”

https://www.travelandleisure.com/cruises/cruises-after-coronavirus

 

The article is a bit behind the times (even though it was supposedly updated today).  The issue of passengers per 70 needing a letter from their doctor has been a dead issue for almost a month.  I pretty much agree that cruise ships will be sailing by the end of June or July.

 

Dolebludgetr - I was responding to the poster that said that they liked Regent but not NCLH.  Sorry that I did not make that clear.

[mrlevin]

Genting announced new guidelines for their cruises, going forward, as reported in Sea Trade:

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/rigorous-genting-measures-show-what-cruise-lines-may-do-post-covid-19-era

 

Genting first out of the box, I wonder if CLIA will use these as their guidelines; it would sure be nice if the big three would come out with their own recommendations.  The article begins:

 

Quote

Infrared fever screening, doctor's certificate of fitness for those over 70, greatly enhanced cabin/public room sanitizing and twice-daily temperature checks for crew are among the actions Genting Cruise Lines plans before beginning service in the 'near future.'

These are intended to become the norm for all the Dream Cruises and Star Cruises ships.

Included are stringent health screening processes and protocols prior to embarkation and disembarkation, thorough sanitization and disinfection and enhanced hygiene practices for guest cabins, public areas and recreational activities, food and beverage safety and crew health.

Edited April 7, 2020 by mrlevin

[Travelcat2]

37 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

Genting announced new guidelines for their cruises, going forward, as reported in Sea Trade:

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/rigorous-genting-measures-show-what-cruise-lines-may-do-post-covid-19-era

 

Genting first out of the box, I wonder if CLIA will use these as their guidelines; it would sure be nice if the big three would come out with their own recommendations.  The article begins:

 

 

As has been mentioned (and verified by Regent), the issue of medical clearance for people 70 and over is dead.

[SusieQft]

15 minutes ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

As has been mentioned (and verified by Regent), the issue of medical clearance for people 70 and over is dead.

For now.  But then again, so are actual cruises.  We don't know what the new policies will be when they start back up.

[Travelcat2]

4 minutes ago, SusieQft said:

For now.  But then again, so are actual cruises.  We don't know what the new policies will be when they start back up.

 

Regent stated to a TA that they will not be implementing this policy.

[rallydave]

14 minutes ago, SusieQft said:

For now.  But then again, so are actual cruises.  We don't know what the new policies will be when they start back up.

Absolutely correct.  We do know Genting will be using the letter, we do know that RCL will be requiring the letter and we know that CLIA originally proposed this plan in his meeting with Vice President Pence for all members of CLIA including the US HQ big 3.  No guarantee Regent won't be forced to add the letter back no matter what might have been said.

 

Second had words from a TA given by who knows who may or may not be correct once cruising restarts.  That said, if this letter is required it will eliminate 100% of the over 70 crowd as there is no way Doctors will risk their licenses, malpractice insurance and time to complete such a completely failed plan so nobody will have the signed letter.

Edited April 7, 2020 by rallydave

[ddsun1]

19 minutes ago, rallydave said:

Absolutely correct.  We do know Genting will be using the letter, we do know that RCL will be requiring the letter and we know that CLIA originally proposed this plan in his meeting with Vice President Pence for all members of CLIA including the US HQ big 3.  No guarantee Regent won't be forced to add the letter back no matter what might have been said.

 

Second had words from a TA given by who knows who may or may not be correct once cruising restarts.  That said, if this letter is required it will eliminate 100% of the over 70 crowd as there is no way Doctors will risk their licenses, malpractice insurance and time to complete such a completely failed plan so nobody will have the signed letter.

I imagine there will be many levels of protection in place planning forward, both for the cruise lines and for the safety of all the guests.

[cruiseluv]

54 minutes ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

Regent stated to a TA that they will not be implementing this policy.

There might be things Regent management will be forced to put in place, be due to government requirements or peer pressure. It'll be interesting to see 

[Steve Q]

1 hour ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

Regent stated to a TA that they will not be implementing this policy.

I have no idea how someone could be certain that a certain policy would never be implemented. Just reflect back on the past six weeks. How many of the things that have occurred would we have  ever imagined? Most of us would have flatly said “Oh, that could never happen.” The fact is that many things, once thought unthinkable, have happened. I think we better purge ourselves of the notion that either we or any travel agent knows the future. 

[Pcardad]

I was told they were told to implement them, they applied for and were granted waivers for a few cruises and then stopped cruising. As of now, they do not plan to implement them in the future. Regent isn't stupid...90% of their clients are over 70...they will work something out.

[Steve Q]

As Cruiseluv stated earlier, the decision to implement this policy or not may not be up to Regent. We just have no way of knowing this. While it certainly is possible that they could be exempt, it is equally possible that they may not. Regent may have no input at all.