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Steve Q

Solvency of Cruise Lines

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Economics is a very complex topic with most folks having little clue as to the actual facts vs their own agenda.   Most of the major corporations are now multi-national in terms of structure.  Accounting firms, financial attorneys, corporate planners and executives are constantly restructuring and strategizing in order to maximize profits and minimize taxes.  

 

The cruise industry in America has a huge impact, economically, on a small part of the country and a lesser impact across the remainder.  This latter is interesting if you simply consider the amount of wine and booze purchased by the cruise industry.  Hotels and restaurants in South Florida depend on the cruise industry for a good portion of their business. But the hotels and restaurants in Denver, CO, would not be impacted if the entire cruise industry failed.  

 

Put simply, I do not think the cruise industry is too big or too valuable to fail!  As one who has been an avid cruiser for over forty years this makes me sad.   Make no mistake about this.  If ports around the world do not soon reopen to cruise ships, the industry will collapse!  And even if many ports do reopen, will the industry still be able to fill their ships with folks who can ignore their fears of being stuck on a "prison ship" in the event that anyone on the large ship gets sick?

 

Hank

I don't agree that hotels and restaurants in South Florida depend for a good portion of their business.  They get some revenue, but outside of those hotels that are located right next to the cruise terminals I doubt it is a high percentage.  How many of the cruisers fly in on the day of the cruise and don't use the local businesses, How many are local and drive to the terminal, how fly in 1 day before and maybe use 1 hotel night and 1 meal per cruise.  I suspect that in all only a relatively small percentage add on a multi-day stay in conjunction with a cruise.  Most of those the use that does occur is within 10 miles of the port. 

 

For that matter if there was not all of the 1 night cruise stays and if cruising was not an option, you might actually capture more of that business for multi-night vacations in places like Fort Lauderdale.

 

I would expect that the groups IN THE US near embarkation ports that would be most impacted by cruise lines going away (note that I said going away, because in the case of a financial restructuring they would not go away, only the shareholder investment would).

 

1. Cruise line HQ employees

2. Temp port workers

3. The cities that own the port facilities

4. Some reduction in airline traffic to cruise line port airports

5. Port parking facilities

6. Hotel/air port to port shuttle facilities

7. Bus rental firms that service cruise line transfers

 

Groups that will  need to shift  to other customers

1. Unionized Long Shore Men (they also do cargo ships)

2. Food and alcohol suppliers

3. Hotels and restaurants located within 10 miles of cruise terminals (potentially too high of density and will need to adjust for multi night stays not over nighters, with adjustment in rates)

Edited by npcl

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15 minutes ago, Jim9310 said:

Although Congress hasn’t passed the $500 billion bailout bill yet, cruise line stocks are surging this afternoon:  CCL (Carnival) up 19%, NCLH (Norwegian) up 26%, and RCL (Royal Caribbean) up  26%.

 

A good start, but that does not take them at all near where they were before this whole crisis hit. The same could be said for the entire stock market.

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Today, as details about the government loans come out, it has been stated that any company taking out a loan will not pay dividends until the loan is repaid.  We have heard it twice.  We are wondering what this will do to CCL in general if it acquires a loan.

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1 hour ago, Sea Belle said:

Today, as details about the government loans come out, it has been stated that any company taking out a loan will not pay dividends until the loan is repaid.  We have heard it twice.  We are wondering what this will do to CCL in general if it acquires a loan.

Loans are just that and need to be repaid.  Until that happens there would be no dividends, no executive bonuses. etc.   Even loans and lines of credit to the major cruise lines will not be helpful unless these companies can get back to the business of making money.  Making money means filling their vessels with folks paying real money, not just using FCCs, and who are happy customers.  The real questions that underlie all of this are  1.  Will paying customers come back if they fear being imprisoned on a ship as soon as one passenger or crew member has a cough?  and  2.  Are ports going to open themselves to cruise ships and take the chance that one or more passengers carry COVID-19 or whatever bug is the "bug of the year?"   Unless the answer to both of these questions is yes, all the loans in the world will not keep the cruise industry from sinking below the waves.

 

Hank

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16 hours ago, npcl said:

I don't agree that hotels and restaurants in South Florida depend for a good portion of their business.  They get some revenue, but outside of those hotels that are located right next to the cruise terminals I doubt it is a high percentage.  How many of the cruisers fly in on the day of the cruise and don't use the local businesses, How many are local and drive to the terminal, how fly in 1 day before and maybe use 1 hotel night and 1 meal per cruise.  I suspect that in all only a relatively small percentage add on a multi-day stay in conjunction with a cruise.  Most of those the use that does occur is within 10 miles of the port. 

 

For that matter if there was not all of the 1 night cruise stays and if cruising was not an option, you might actually capture more of that business for multi-night vacations in places like Fort Lauderdale.

 

I would expect that the groups IN THE US near embarkation ports that would be most impacted by cruise lines going away (note that I said going away, because in the case of a financial restructuring they would not go away, only the shareholder investment would).

 

1. Cruise line HQ employees

2. Temp port workers

3. The cities that own the port facilities

4. Some reduction in airline traffic to cruise line port airports

5. Port parking facilities

6. Hotel/air port to port shuttle facilities

7. Bus rental firms that service cruise line transfers

 

Groups that will  need to shift  to other customers

1. Unionized Long Shore Men (they also do cargo ships)

2. Food and alcohol suppliers

3. Hotels and restaurants located within 10 miles of cruise terminals (potentially too high of density and will need to adjust for multi night stays not over nighters, with adjustment in rates)

 

You missed a few groups that will be unemployed or need to go elsewhere:

 

Full time Port employees

Full time Port security employees.

Full time Port Agencies

Port Pilots

TSA Employees

Fuel suppliers (my medium sized ship buys 1,500 tons per week; multiply that by 40 and try to sell it somewhere else)

US Public Health Inspectors (only allowed to inspect foreign flag ships)

Duty Free wholesalers (they have only 2 options; cruise ships or international flyers)

Local tour companies

Luggage forwarding companies

Limousine companies

Canine bomb detection companies

Medical clinics (that test all ship crew members)

Waste disposal companies specializing in international waste

Cash delivery companies

Tug boat companies

 

The multitude of technical support companies that service cruise ships every week:

  • Food Service equipment
  • Office equipment
  • Beverage Service Equipment
  • Computer systems
  • Carpet cleaners
  • Commercial Laundry systems
  • Upholsterers
  • Carpet layers
  • Air con systems
  • Water making systems
  • Florists
  • Swimming pool systems
  • Ship chandlers
  • Chemical suppliers

I manage a medium-sized ship that buys around $1 Million in food, beverage, and consumables every 7 days.

Add the other 40 ships that call at the same turnaround port every 7 days. Many of them are are double the size of mine.

As a group, we account for about $60 million in sales per week. Where do you suggest the suppliers sell all that stuff if we happen to disappear?

 

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17 hours ago, Sea Belle said:

Today, as details about the government loans come out, it has been stated that any company taking out a loan will not pay dividends until the loan is repaid.  We have heard it twice.  We are wondering what this will do to CCL in general if it acquires a loan.

And so it should be!  You also missed some things like no executive bonues, salary caps on CEOs, etc.  And why not?  If a corporation accepts a low interest or interest free loan from the taxpayers they need to accept that until they repay those loans there will be restrictions.  A few years ago when we bailed out the financial industry there were also various restrictions such as on management bonuses.

 

As to dividends, investors should understand that dividends are essentially paid from profits.  When it comes to financial obligations, dividends should go to the back of the line.

 

As to CCL "in general,"  the future will depend on the ability of the company to attract paying customers.  Failure to get sufficient customers would quickly send the company spiraling into the abyss.  

 

Hank

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16 hours ago, Hlitner said:

 The real questions that underlie all of this are  1.  Will paying customers come back if they fear being imprisoned on a ship as soon as one passenger or crew member has a cough?  and  2.  Are ports going to open themselves to cruise ships and take the chance that one or more passengers carry COVID-19 or whatever bug is the "bug of the year?"   Unless the answer to both of these questions is yes, all the loans in the world will not keep the cruise industry from sinking below the waves.

 

Hank

Agree.  These are the issues people seem to be ignoring when they think cruises will start up again in May or June.  Or even longer.  Another issue is the millions unemployed and/or have lost money in their retirement accounts.  Some of them won't be booking cruises or keeping reservations either.  It's a long road ahead for the cruise lines.

 

We truly love cruising, but won't be making final payment on our October Med cruise.  Maybe the B2B2B Caribbean in January, we'll see when the time comes for payment.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, bouhunter said:

Agree.  These are the issues people seem to be ignoring when they think cruises will start up again in May or June.  Or even longer.  Another issue is the millions unemployed and/or have lost money in their retirement accounts.  Some of them won't be booking cruises or keeping reservations either.  It's a long road ahead for the cruise lines.

 

We truly love cruising, but won't be making final payment on our October Med cruise.  Maybe the B2B2B Caribbean in January, we'll see when the time comes for payment.  

 

 

We will delay our decisions until near final payment.  But if the cruising situation does not improve we will simply expand the number and length of our land trips.  Since we are very independent travelers we can simply plan last minute adventures once things quiet down.  For Europe it is just a matter of booking a flight and either renting or leasing a car.  Asia is a bit more complex since we tend to rely on trains and public transit.   Like you, we love to cruise and will continue to do that...assuming the cruise lines can convince ports to reopen and do something to alleviate the fear of being imprisoned on a ship because 1 passenger has a cough.

 

Hank

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Posted (edited)

Error with post

Edited by npcl

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4 hours ago, Donald said:

 

You missed a few groups that will be unemployed or need to go elsewhere:

 

Full time Port employees

Full time Port security employees.

Full time Port Agencies

Port Pilots

TSA Employees

Fuel suppliers (my medium sized ship buys 1,500 tons per week; multiply that by 40 and try to sell it somewhere else)

US Public Health Inspectors (only allowed to inspect foreign flag ships)

Duty Free wholesalers (they have only 2 options; cruise ships or international flyers)

Local tour companies

Luggage forwarding companies

Limousine companies

Canine bomb detection companies

Medical clinics (that test all ship crew members)

Waste disposal companies specializing in international waste

Cash delivery companies

Tug boat companies

 

The multitude of technical support companies that service cruise ships every week:

  • Food Service equipment
  • Office equipment
  • Beverage Service Equipment
  • Computer systems
  • Carpet cleaners
  • Commercial Laundry systems
  • Upholsterers
  • Carpet layers
  • Air con systems
  • Water making systems
  • Florists
  • Swimming pool systems
  • Ship chandlers
  • Chemical suppliers

I manage a medium-sized ship that buys around $1 Million in food, beverage, and consumables every 7 days.

Add the other 40 ships that call at the same turnaround port every 7 days. Many of them are are double the size of mine.

As a group, we account for about $60 million in sales per week. Where do you suggest the suppliers sell all that stuff if we happen to disappear?

 

First of all I stated that it was unlikely that the majors would total disappear, even if they had to declare BK and restructure.  

Even if they did to fully liquidate other companies would start up, most likely using assets purchased from the old companies.

 

Lets go through the list and put this in context and make the unlikely assumption that the cruise lines just vanish.

 

Full time Port employees

Full time Port security employees.

Full time Port Agencies

Port Pilots

 

The port would most likely not go away.  Good locations for ports are rare and there are a number of other uses, such as cargo.  In Florida and Miami with large numbers of very large private boats I am pretty sure that the ports would find useful functions. So there might be some disruption, but short term and probably less than one might think.  Certainly less than what is happening to other fully land based business during the out break

 

TSA Employees

US Public Health Inspectors (only allowed to inspect foreign flag ships)

 

Last time I looked TSA is considered to be under staffed  so I do not think they will be impacted.  As far as the inspectors it would appear that they are government employees, I am pretty sure that they can be used effectively, even if the title and scope of their duties might change.

 

Fuel suppliers (my medium sized ship buys 1,500 tons per week; multiply that by 40 and try to sell it somewhere else)

 

Considering the drop in oil prices and the glut they  are in the same boat as those supplying air lines and everybody else.  I guess they will still service cargo ships (not much use for low grade fuel). So some drop in demand.  The industries will adjust.

 

Medical clinics (that test all ship crew members)  

 

Pretty sure that with the shortage of medical personnel in the US the workers will be able to find jobs outside of the cruise industry

 

Tug boat companies

 

Seem these are used for cargo ships as well.

 

Waste disposal companies specializing in international waste

 

Guess they will be limited to cargo ships.  Guess they will have to deal with more normal waste with lower margins.

 

 

Duty Free wholesalers (they have only 2 options; cruise ships or international flyers)

Local tour companies

Luggage forwarding companies

Limousine companies

Canine bomb detection companies

Cash delivery companies

 

All of these combined are not exactly a large amount of either people or dollars in the entire scope.  tour companies can be refocused selling tours through hotels.  Limousine companies exist outside of tour ports and serve a wide range of functions. I guess duty free would have to convert to more general retail. Most of which have non-cruise ship lines of business I guess they would have to refocus their marketing and target business.

 

 

The multitude of technical support companies that service cruise ships every week:

  • Food Service equipment
  • Office equipment
  • Beverage Service Equipment
  • Computer systems
  • Carpet cleaners
  • Commercial Laundry systems
  • Upholsterers
  • Carpet layers
  • Air con systems
  • Water making systems
  • Florists
  • Swimming pool systems
  • Ship chandlers
  • Chemical suppliers

Which also exist in the non-cruise ship world.  

 

Yes there would be some impact, Just as there is all over the US with many businesses that are closing, a far number of small businesses which will probably not reopen.  But in general the volumes you are talking about are not outside the economic scope  in a small city.  In the entire scheme of things, some impact, but a blip in the large scale of things. 

 

A gap will be created, in both employment and revenue, but as learned from other failures, such gaps are soon filled if the customer demand exists.

 

Would rather see the money from the government go directly to the small businesses, that are located in the US, directly than to the Cruise lines incorporated outside of the US.

 

It does look that the bill being discussed does require any corporate receiving aid must be incorporated in the US and must have most employees in the US, so does not look as if the cruise lines will qualify.

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2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

We will delay our decisions until near final payment.  But if the cruising situation does not improve we will simply expand the number and length of our land trips.  Since we are very independent travelers we can simply plan last minute adventures once things quiet down.  For Europe it is just a matter of booking a flight and either renting or leasing a car.  Asia is a bit more complex since we tend to rely on trains and public transit.   Like you, we love to cruise and will continue to do that...assuming the cruise lines can convince ports to reopen and do something to alleviate the fear of being imprisoned on a ship because 1 passenger has a cough.

 

Hank

There are 1200 pax and 500 crew "imprisoned" on HAL Zaandam right now.  100+ reporting "influenza type symptoms".  They've all been restricted to cabins for 3 days now I think, and the best hope at present is FLL March 30.  IF they're allowed to dock.  I can't imagine how long the days are on that thing, last port was March 14 and now locked in cabins.  Even without the fear of coronavirus it has to be awful on that ship.

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The cruise lines would really benefit from giving people a LONG time to use up the FCC -- maybe 3 years. Otherwise, they're going to find that they're not taking in nearly as much new revenue because those with FCC will be pushing to use it.

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3 minutes ago, Steve Q said:

See the link below. It appears as though no financial aid for cruise lines was included in the latest Stimulus Bill. It is certainly possible that it could be forthcoming in future legislation.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-bailout-could-exclude-carnival-norwegian-royal-caribbean-cruise-lines.html?&qsearchterm=cruise lines

It reads like the bill is ambiguous. If the bill is ambiguous, then it's probably going to be up to the Treasury Secretary. No one would have standing to sue to prevent it, I suspect.

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6 minutes ago, Wehwalt said:

It reads like the bill is ambiguous. If the bill is ambiguous, then it's probably going to be up to the Treasury Secretary. No one would have standing to sue to prevent it, I suspect.

Not ambiguous

 

1. Cruise lines not mentioned in the legislation

 

2. Aid restricted to companies incorporated in the US, with the majority of its employees being US.

 

Item 2 pretty much leaves out the cruise lines.

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Serious Restructuring needed, Here's what I would do to the entire CCL umbrella.

 

1. Eliminate one brand, when two directly compete with each other. In North America that would be either HAL or Princess.

Maybe some European, or British CC'ers can give their opinions on the need for the need for : P&O, Costa, and  Aida, maybe these 3 can be combined into 1 mega European/British Brand. Brexit really throws a monkey wrench into that.

 

Cunard is a niche because of it's Trans Atlantic passenger service. Seabourn is the high-end brand. Carnival is the mass market brand. You don't get called "the Walmart of cruising" without good reason.

 

Internally with HAL I fear the loss of the R class and remaining S class ships, everything will be Vista Class and larger. Remember the 3rd Signature class ship is currently under construction, well maybe the ship yard is closed for now.

 

Stay Healthy so you may cruise again,

 

Paul

 

 

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1 hour ago, kangforpres said:

Serious Restructuring needed, Here's what I would do to the entire CCL umbrella.

 

1. Eliminate one brand, when two directly compete with each other. In North America that would be either HAL or Princess.

Maybe some European, or British CC'ers can give their opinions on the need for the need for : P&O, Costa, and  Aida, maybe these 3 can be combined into 1 mega European/British Brand. Brexit really throws a monkey wrench into that.

 

Cunard is a niche because of it's Trans Atlantic passenger service. Seabourn is the high-end brand. Carnival is the mass market brand. You don't get called "the Walmart of cruising" without good reason.

 

Internally with HAL I fear the loss of the R class and remaining S class ships, everything will be Vista Class and larger. Remember the 3rd Signature class ship is currently under construction, well maybe the ship yard is closed for now.

 

Stay Healthy so you may cruise again,

 

Paul

 

 

Interesting.  Perhaps you can hire yourself out as a consultant?

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10 hours ago, kangforpres said:

Serious Restructuring needed, Here's what I would do to the entire CCL umbrella.

 

1. Eliminate one brand, when two directly compete with each other. In North America that would be either HAL or Princess.

Maybe some European, or British CC'ers can give their opinions on the need for the need for : P&O, Costa, and  Aida, maybe these 3 can be combined into 1 mega European/British Brand. Brexit really throws a monkey wrench into that.

 

Cunard is a niche because of it's Trans Atlantic passenger service. Seabourn is the high-end brand. Carnival is the mass market brand. You don't get called "the Walmart of cruising" without good reason.

 

Internally with HAL I fear the loss of the R class and remaining S class ships, everything will be Vista Class and larger. Remember the 3rd Signature class ship is currently under construction, well maybe the ship yard is closed for now.

 

Stay Healthy so you may cruise again,

 

Paul

 

 

Basically this sounds much like the model that GM went through. Pontiac and Oldsmobile were no longer manufactured.

 

There has been an over-expansion of cruise line capacity (much of it based on the opening Chinese market). This crisis might just speed up what would have had to happen eventually.

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I think the solution is simple. Government needs to bail out this industry as they will others.  Grant money directly to cover short term losses and keep cruise lines functioning until they can resume normal operations. Shareholders (they had no idea their would be a Corona virus) should recover share price losses with tax credits.

An additional emergency cash payment could be sent (1000 dollars?) to each citizen over 18 with stipulation that this money has to be used within 12 mos. for vacation purposes (cruise, hotel, airlines). It could be in the form of a travel debit card.

Everyone is happy- the gov and fed can continue on their path to a centrally directed economy.  Happy cruising comrades.

 

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I think what you will see happen is the following:

 

just like the auto industry, consolidation will happen. There is no need to have brands under the same parent company that compete for the same customers. All this does is cannibalize your clientele and dilute your bottom line. GM did this by terminating Pontiac (competes with Chevy) and Oldsmobile (also competed with Chevy)

 

1) older, smaller ships will go or lead to...

2) ships will be densified and cabins added (carnival has been doing this with the Sunshine Class

3) Cruise companies under the same parent company that compete with each other will merge or be dismantled (Princess, P&O, and Holland America largely compete for the same demographic)

4) orders will be cancelled

 

 

i might be wrong as this is speculation, but it will be interesting. 

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Would  you take a cruise in the next year? I am thinking that I want to see a complete worldwide recovery from the virus, or development of a vaccine, before I take another cruise. I just cancelled two Future Cruise Credits.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Basically this sounds much like the model that GM went through. Pontiac and Oldsmobile were no longer manufactured.

 

There has been an over-expansion of cruise line capacity (much of it based on the opening Chinese market). This crisis might just speed up what would have had to happen eventually.

That is exactly what I just said ☺️
at a bare minimum, I can see the R and S class gone. Max, HAL is gone. (And possibly Princess). Princess has a wider and broader brand recognition than Holland America. If you ask a 20 or 30 something about cruising, they will likely have heard of Princess but look at you like you have 3 heads when you bring up HAL. 

Edited by UPNYGuy

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4 minutes ago, UPNYGuy said:

I think what you will see happen is the following:

 

just like the auto industry, consolidation will happen. There is no need to have brands under the same parent company that compete for the same customers. All this does is cannibalize your clientele and dilute your bottom line. GM did this by terminating Pontiac (competes with Chevy) and Oldsmobile (also competed with Chevy)

 

1) older, smaller ships will go or lead to...

2) ships will be densified and cabins added (carnival has been doing this with the Sunshine Class

3) Cruise companies under the same parent company that compete with each other will merge or be dismantled (Princess, P&O, and Holland America largely compete for the same demographic)

4) orders will be cancelled

 

 

i might be wrong as this is speculation, but it will be interesting. 

I disagree on a couple of points.

 

1. I think the smaller ships will be more attractive and that the cruise lines will have difficulty filling the mega ships.

2. After all of the bad press I do not think that they will increase density on cruise ships.  If anything I think they will decrease density. They might even convert some inside cabins into more crew space.

3. There were agreements with foreign governments associated with some of the cruise lines acquisitions such as P&O, Cunard (maybe Costa not sure about that one)  so some lines cannot easily be merged.

 

The cruise lines have been operating under the bigger is better, the more cabins is better, as long as fares are low enough they will come Mantra for several years.  I think after this that many will just not climb on a cruise ship for any price, until the psychological impact of this fades.  The cruise lines will probably have excess capacity for several years.  As a result even severe discounts will not fill the ships.  In that case the lines might as well focus on those that are willing to travel and improve the experience.

 

 

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Just now, npcl said:

I disagree on a couple of points.

 

1. I think the smaller ships will be more attractive and that the cruise lines will have difficulty filling the mega ships.

2. After all of the bad press I do not think that they will increase density on cruise ships.  If anything I think they will decrease density. They might even convert some inside cabins into more crew space.

3. There were agreements with foreign governments associated with some of the cruise lines acquisitions such as P&O, Cunard (maybe Costa not sure about that one)  so some lines cannot easily be merged.

 

The cruise lines have been operating under the bigger is better, the more cabins is better, as long as fares are low enough they will come Mantra for several years.  I think after this that many will just not climb on a cruise ship for any price, until the psychological impact of this fades.  The cruise lines will probably have excess capacity for several years.  As a result even severe discounts will not fill the ships.  In that case the lines might as well focus on those that are willing to travel and improve the experience.

 

 


guess only time will tell for sure. I think you will see fewer cruises operated, but on the larger, newer ships. If a vista is roughly as ‘efficient’ so to speak as an R-class, the rest of the pax carried are all profit. 
 

hence my density comment. more density = more profit 

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