Possible Bankruptcy??

[lucymorgan]

These are very difficult times. 

I feel sorry for:

- the people directly affected by the virus - especially those fighting for their lives and their families

- the people still stuck around the world on cruise ships with increasing problems getting off the ships and back to home (and the people who may catch the virus from those returning home)

- the workers on cruise lines who have/or soon will lose their jobs and their ability to support their families back home

- the people everywhere affected facing homelessness and need

 

Although I am a keen cruiser (not from the US) I don't really feel sorrow for:

- the cruise lines

- the shareholders (many/but not all of them US based) who are seeing their beloved companies struggling after making big profits

- the cruisers who previously told lots of the rest of us that these were US cruise lines and everyone should abide by US customs when cruising on them (have some of these people suddenly and conveniently changed their opinions?)

- the cruisers who relished booking, finding great deals, rebooking to get better deals, cancelling because they had booked many just to take a few, looking to game the system based on different booking conditions in different countries etc.

 

For a while now, I have been feeling a bit uncomfortable about the whole cruise business, even though I love the cruise experience.   Perhaps out of all of this, the cruise lines will learn to properly respect everyone and every country that they serve and pay taxes and meet local laws everywhere that they operate.      

 

I also think that, like Boeing, it may be that the cruise lines are too important to the US economy to fail.  So despite individual US taxpayers feeling it isn't fair, the cost of not supporting the cruise lines may result in much pain to the rest of your economy.   

 

[Wehwalt]

All that seems too much like "a plague o' both your houses" with a touch of "Yankee go home" to me.

[Gracie115]

11 hours ago, npcl said:

10 to 60 and now 90?  Why does this seem more and more that they are tying to scrape by until they can start sailing again.

 

 

Exactly.  They have no cash flow at this time.  They have operated for years on future deposits and fares and when suddenly FULL fares cancelled with full refunds due them the cash flow dried up and now they wait for more deposits to come in, refunds trickle out as a couple deposits and payments are made but the bulk aren't being refunded until they are up and running and receiving significant infusions of cash.  

 

ENRON STYLE ACCOUNTING!!!!

[Expat Cruise]

6 hours ago, tgwabd said:

The United States Government said no bailout for Cruise lines since they are from foreign countries...

 

Cruise lines, early source of coronavirus infections, out of bailout package

Top cruise companies don’t locate in America and won’t get piece of a $500 billion bailout fund, their industry group says

 

The United States Government should bail out the three major cruise companies. But they should not give them cash or other things that will cost the taxpayers money. Very simple way to do this with no costs to the US and great benefits.

 

Allow them to do cruises with their Foreign Flagged ships from US Port to US Port with no required Foreign Port. These types of cruises are not allowed under Passenger Vessel Services Act, some people says Jones Act but the Jones Act is for Cargo.

 

The Passenger Service Act fines the crew line almost $800 dollars per guest on the ship if they break the rules. The answer is really very simple. The US Government waves these fines for a set period of time. Maybe 6 months to a year.

 

It would allow ships to go from the West Coast to Alaska without stopping in Canada. They could do East Coast Cruises with no foreign port call. Houston, New Orleans, Tampa, Key West, etc.

 

Once the United States is clear of this virus it would help the US ports and the Cruise lines, it would allow guest to cruise without passports and stay within the United States.

 

Even very seasoned cruisers would be interested in these cruises which are never offered on very large cruise ships. Except Hawaii Pride of America. Other cruise lines could do Hawaii cruises too. It seems like a win win to me.

[BIG TIME CRUISER]

7 hours ago, tgwabd said:

The United States Government said no bailout for Cruise lines since they are from foreign countries...

Perhaps when they begin to pay US taxes they might consider it in the future but for now I can't see them doing so. 

[nbsjcruiser]

8 hours ago, tgwabd said:

The United States Government said no bailout for Cruise lines since they are from foreign countries...

 

Cruise lines, early source of coronavirus infections, out of bailout package

Top cruise companies don’t locate in America and won’t get piece of a $500 billion bailout fund, their industry group says

Interesting. Not sure if this is fact or not but if it is, its step 1 in forcing the cruise industry to do some sort of industry wide introspection.There might be significant changes coming to the cruise industry.

[jwattle]

14 hours ago, npcl said:

10 to 60 and now 90?  Why does this seem more and more that they are tying to scrape by until they can start sailing again.

Maybe because they have a metric crapton of refunds to process?🙄

[dog]

Where can I find out tax info for cruise ships? Please post link. Ie: Princess, Oceania in particular 

[nbsjcruiser]

34 minutes ago, nbsjcruiser said:

Interesting. Not sure if this is fact or not but if it is, its step 1 in forcing the cruise industry to do some sort of industry wide introspection.There might be significant changes coming to the cruise industry.

Looks like its true

https://theweek.com/speedreads/905162/big-cruise-ship-lines-shut-22-trillion-coronavirus-rescue

[mrgame101]

2 hours ago, Expat Cruise said:

 

The United States Government should bail out the three major cruise companies. But they should not give them cash or other things that will cost the taxpayers money. Very simple way to do this with no costs to the US and great benefits.

 

Allow them to do cruises with their Foreign Flagged ships from US Port to US Port with no required Foreign Port. These types of cruises are not allowed under Passenger Vessel Services Act, some people says Jones Act but the Jones Act is for Cargo.

 

The Passenger Service Act fines the crew line almost $800 dollars per guest on the ship if they break the rules. The answer is really very simple. The US Government waves these fines for a set period of time. Maybe 6 months to a year.

 

It would allow ships to go from the West Coast to Alaska without stopping in Canada. They could do East Coast Cruises with no foreign port call. Houston, New Orleans, Tampa, Key West, etc.

 

Once the United States is clear of this virus it would help the US ports and the Cruise lines, it would allow guest to cruise without passports and stay within the United States.

 

Even very seasoned cruisers would be interested in these cruises which are never offered on very large cruise ships. Except Hawaii Pride of America. Other cruise lines could do Hawaii cruises too. It seems like a win win to me.

 

I think that is a very interesting idea. It would sure help the economy in those cities up the coast. 

[nbsjcruiser]

3 hours ago, Expat Cruise said:

 

The United States Government should bail out the three major cruise companies. But they should not give them cash or other things that will cost the taxpayers money. Very simple way to do this with no costs to the US and great benefits.

 

Allow them to do cruises with their Foreign Flagged ships from US Port to US Port with no required Foreign Port. These types of cruises are not allowed under Passenger Vessel Services Act, some people says Jones Act but the Jones Act is for Cargo.

 

The Passenger Service Act fines the crew line almost $800 dollars per guest on the ship if they break the rules. The answer is really very simple. The US Government waves these fines for a set period of time. Maybe 6 months to a year.

 

It would allow ships to go from the West Coast to Alaska without stopping in Canada. They could do East Coast Cruises with no foreign port call. Houston, New Orleans, Tampa, Key West, etc.

 

Once the United States is clear of this virus it would help the US ports and the Cruise lines, it would allow guest to cruise without passports and stay within the United States.

 

Even very seasoned cruisers would be interested in these cruises which are never offered on very large cruise ships. Except Hawaii Pride of America. Other cruise lines could do Hawaii cruises too. It seems like a win win to me.

Interesting option but a long way off. Listening to Bill Gates last night and he has a stark assessment. If the US could go 100% lockdown, they can slowly start returning to normal in 10 weeks. Middle of May. If not, the mathematical models are clear. Pockets of this virus will grow by 33% per day. The exponential growth will mean more hot spots and illnesses as the virus continues to spread necessitating a lockdown later in the year anyway - so a double whammy to the economy. The travel industry and cruise industry will be decimated if that comes to pass. It is a legitimate pay me now or pay me later scenario. 

[Gracie115]

1 hour ago, jwattle said:

Maybe because they have a metric crapton of refunds to process?🙄

No because they have no cash to refund.  A refund takes a click of a button on a computer and that's it.

[jwattle]

9 minutes ago, Gracie115 said:

No because they have no cash to refund.  A refund takes a click of a button on a computer and that's it.

Ane FCC plus figuring  port tax and fees, and all the other gibberish. Also, whether it was TA or direct. It's not just voila

[Gracie115]

6 minutes ago, jwattle said:

Ane FCC plus figuring  port tax and fees, and all the other gibberish. Also, whether it was TA or direct. It's not just voila

Well it certainly is any other time.  It's about money not anything else.  

[samiam1]

4 hours ago, Expat Cruise said:

 

The United States Government should bail out the three major cruise companies. But they should not give them cash or other things that will cost the taxpayers money. Very simple way to do this with no costs to the US and great benefits.

 

Allow them to do cruises with their Foreign Flagged ships from US Port to US Port with no required Foreign Port. These types of cruises are not allowed under Passenger Vessel Services Act, some people says Jones Act but the Jones Act is for Cargo.

 

The Passenger Service Act fines the crew line almost $800 dollars per guest on the ship if they break the rules. The answer is really very simple. The US Government waves these fines for a set period of time. Maybe 6 months to a year.

 

It would allow ships to go from the West Coast to Alaska without stopping in Canada. They could do East Coast Cruises with no foreign port call. Houston, New Orleans, Tampa, Key West, etc.

 

Once the United States is clear of this virus it would help the US ports and the Cruise lines, it would allow guest to cruise without passports and stay within the United States.

 

Even very seasoned cruisers would be interested in these cruises which are never offered on very large cruise ships. Except Hawaii Pride of America. Other cruise lines could do Hawaii cruises too. It seems like a win win to me.

 

Make them flag part of their fleet in the USA if they want tax payer dollars. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by samiam1

[muggo11]

On 3/23/2020 at 6:26 AM, nbsjcruiser said:

They all fly the flag of their "home country" so they pay no tax in the US. Should the US government bail them out? Good question.

A constituent asked about cruise refund wait times on our regular town hall call with Rep Speier (D-CA) earlier this week. She was remarkably knowledgeable about the cruise industry and stated that, given they were flagged in other countries, she did not see the industry as a priority for governmental financial support (e.g.Bailout) Of course, lobbyists are working as we  speak. And I haven’t yet seen if their fate is detailed one way or the other  in the relief bill slated to be voted in the House today. 

Having said that, I believe our capacity for amnesia and penchant for fun along with a pent-up demand for escape will re-build the industry. I believe the deep-pocketed capital invested in ships and operations will be patient. And I am buying 300 more shares of CCL this morning!  

[The Greater Fool]

1 hour ago, nbsjcruiser said:

Interesting option but a long way off. Listening to Bill Gates last night and he has a stark assessment. If the US could go 100% lockdown, they can slowly start returning to normal in 10 weeks. Middle of May. If not, the mathematical models are clear. Pockets of this virus will grow by 33% per day. The exponential growth will mean more hot spots and illnesses as the virus continues to spread necessitating a lockdown later in the year anyway - so a double whammy to the economy. The travel industry and cruise industry will be decimated if that comes to pass. It is a legitimate pay me now or pay me later scenario. 

10 weeks = early June.

[nbsjcruiser]

1 minute ago, muggo11 said:

Having said that, I believe our capacity for amnesia and penchant for fun along with a pent-up demand for escape will re-build the industry. I believe the deep-pocketed capital invested in ships and operations will be patient. And I am buying 300 more shares of CCL this morning!  

 

I think you make a valid point about pent up demand and I think you're right. It will come but not until next year imo.

 

Even in a best case scenario where the US does what it should do, the economy is not going to start to open back up in controlled slow phases until mid June.  Cruise ships will likely lag behind that time and will probably try and capitalize on a hopefully busy summer season but there's problems with that. First, unless there's a vaccine ready by then (lets all hope) people are going to be skittish for a while so I think even in this best case scenario, its likely going to be fall time frame before  people begin to feel safe enough to return to cruising in more meaningful waves. The next problem is, the talk of the US  not willing to pay the price right now to lockdown to control that spread. This is going to extend the pain and the illness needlessly. In that scenario the travel/cruise industry will continue to suffer as people stay home and it will be next year before the mess ends with (likely) a vaccine.

 

Either way I see a cruise industry that will go through changes and re-orgs as the strong merge, buy out other lines and the weaker more debt ridden ones either get bought out, go bankrupt or shrink and mothball ships to try and survive.  A lot of what happens to the cruise industry and the economy as a whole depends on what takes place in the next 2 weeks. If there's a concerted effort to get people back in churches and back to work in offices, then the mathematical models are quite clear and you dont have to be a medical expert to see what those models are telling us. It really is a pay me now or pay me later scenario. 

[nbsjcruiser]

1 minute ago, The Greater Fool said:

10 weeks = early June.

yes, sorry for the typo.

[samiam1]

35 minutes ago, muggo11 said:

 And I am buying 300 more shares of CCL this morning!  

 

Billions of dollars in lawsuits coming against Carnival. Ordinary shareholders will take a haircut.  And not just suits from passengers but shareholders and suppliers.

[samiam1]

20 minutes ago, nbsjcruiser said:

 

I think you make a valid point about pent up demand and I think you're right. It will come but not until next year imo.

 

 It really is a pay me now or pay me later scenario. 

 

It is becoming evident consumers will demand changes.  Buffets, outdated ventilation systems, cramped unsanitary conditions, and cancellation policies are all going to change. Ships will need to retrofit to meet these trends and that requires more capital on top of likely zero revenue for the next six months.  If the cruise lines don't do this, next norovirus outbreak will be hyped to the moon and we have not seen the fully tally of the COVID 19 effects, there are still sick ships out there trying to disembark ailing passengers and crew.

[muggo11]

Samiam1,

there may well be suits filed. . .but many will not prevail.  And negligence by the cruise lines?  I don’t see much outright negligence but situational issues because ships are floating petri dishes. Japan was responsible for the Diamond Princess quarantine, not Princess. As the situation has evolved, cruise lines’ protocols improved. CCL took a hit for Contra Costa, with  more deaths than from COVID-19 so far. With all cruising now paused, deaths of cruise passengers should taper off. 
I agree—this might be a long haul recovery. The virus is in the driver’s seat. In 1917-18, the flu had three waves lasting 15 months. A vaccine and the development of herd immunity will make a huge difference. I am biased. I love cruising so much i want my personal good will to make it survive. But that’s just the self-isolation talking. I wish I were on a cruise ship!  

[Expat Cruise]

23 minutes ago, samiam1 said:

 

Billions of dollars in lawsuits coming against Carnival. Ordinary shareholders will take a haircut.  And not just suits from passengers but shareholders and suppliers.

I will be very surprised if Carnival pays anything to thees claims. Could see several million in legal fees. But suing Carnival is not a easy thing to do, and many will learn that.

 

 

[samiam1]

1 hour ago, Expat Cruise said:

I will be very surprised if Carnival pays anything to thees claims. Could see several million in legal fees. But suing Carnival is not a easy thing to do, and many will learn that.

 

 

 

Not easy?  Big class action firms sue much bigger fish than Carnival and win and in this case people have died.

[tntornadox]

2 hours ago, samiam1 said:

 

Not easy?  Big class action firms sue much bigger fish than Carnival and win and in this case people have died.

The cruise lines have well insulated themselves against litigation. It's not easy.