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Long time before cruising resumes


drkitkat123
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I am a physician and the longer all this goes on, the more pessimistic I become about cruising. Personally, I can not see any cruising resuming for more than 18 months. Even if particular countries get COVID under control, there is little chance they will allow cruises between countries.

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44 minutes ago, drkitkat123 said:

I am a physician and the longer all this goes on, the more pessimistic I become about cruising. Personally, I can not see any cruising resuming for more than 18 months. Even if particular countries get COVID under control, there is little chance they will allow cruises between countries.

In a worst case scenario, you may be right. 

 

IMO, the critical elements for industry "restart" will be 

1. The effectiveness of the geographic lockdowns both internal (e.g., California, which still needs to toughen its requirements/enforcement) and external (border closures everywhere, minimally by states/provinces and countries) - not because of politics but rather because of differences in varying governments' ability to follow through on regulation. It is the geographic lockdown that will do the most to slow transmission and flatten it's "curve" (and, of course, that "serious" lockdown will have to last at least through this summer). Of course, there can be no cruising during this time and it's duration will be directly proportional to the severity of its inclusions and enforecement.

 

2. With all the obvious and necessary caveats, a quick route to an effective vaccine is imperative. As I write this, I'm reminded of all the zombie movies that begin with a virus vaccine that has "a few screws missing." But, seriously, vaccine is the key and just how much can be fast tracked in clinical development/trials is the biggest unknown right now. 

 

As for foreign countries denying cruiseships now or in the future, it's a two- edged sword wherever primarily coastal tourism is a mainstay of a country's economy. That said, it's a sure bet that reintroduction of cruise ships will be phased in with passenger load, space ratio and inspection/public health compliance records determining priority in any country's eventual approval of renewed port entry.

 

I'm betting that premium/luxury lines will come back online first followed by smaller mass market ships. And, yes, deserved or not, bad press/public opinion will keep mass market megaships and even some entire lines (like Princess) off the "high seas" for an extended period of time.

 

In any case, we're still planning on cruising again - as early as this coming November (Athens to Dubai on Oceania). In the worst case scenario, Oceania will cancel and continue its current 100% refund policy. Of course, the most uncertainty will remain the disposition of DIY airfare (a whole other discussion).

 

Edited by Flatbush Flyer
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I agree with Flatbush about the lines with small ships being the first to crank up.

 

Assuming my June Baltic on Marina is cancelled, my next cruise will be with Windstar on Wind Spirit in Tahiti in January 2021. This is a small ship, 140 pax, and a single country cruise. Windstar should be one of the lines to benefit first once cruising resumes.

 

Some people who are cruisers only for vacations may have to start looking into land based tours, maybe of a single country. I hope to be visiting Namibia in September, on a small group safari tour. We will fly there, no cruise involved.

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44 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

As for foreign countries denying cruiseships now or in the future, it's a two- edged sword wherever primarily coastal tourism is a mainstay of a country's economy.

Is there info for which countries that would be. This was discussed on another thread. There may well be ports that say "good riddance to bad rubbish." Some in S. American don't seem real keen. What about Dubrovnik who's already had their UNESCO status threatened due to overcrowding. And more.

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39 minutes ago, susiesan said:

Some people who are cruisers only for vacations may have to start looking into land based tours, maybe of a single country. I hope to be visiting Namibia in September, on a small group safari tour. We will fly there, no cruise involved.

I see more and more o that. Especially for those who are more "port" focused.

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The larger issue is that if one picks up something nasty in that "single country", the swift and simple hospitalization which would normally be available to put you right again may not be available due to Covina volume.

 

More exotic locations known for poorer sanitation are sure to be excluded for longer-

 

 

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I believe there is a more substantial long term effect. We know all cruise lines, including Oceania, have self centered jerks that either break quarantine or refuse to self report due to fear of quarantine. Some show up for cruises already sick. It is my longer term fear, that if a ship reports any type of flu symptoms, Noro, or other types of illness aboard, ports will immediately cancel their docking. 
 

How long are people going to spend a considerable amount of money, to fly half around the world , to have their cruise upended by sick passengers? That number now may become just one unexplained sick passenger. 
 

My friend, the ship’s Medical Officer, talks about the % of cruisers that visit the clinic within hours of boarding, some their first stop aboard. I can easily foresee a day where a much longer boarding process includes some sort of medical check before boarding is allowed. A month old letter from a doctor won’t suffice. Those showing any likely symptoms, or in chronic poor health, won’t be allowed to board. The stakes are too high to continue business as usual. One’s cabin class may soon correspond to how long they stand in line for check in. Getting to the ship at 10:00 a.m. with a 1:00 boarding time may mean you’re only in the front portion of the 1:00 line.

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7 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

 

My friend, the ship’s Medical Officer, talks about the % of cruisers that visit the clinic within hours of boarding, some their first stop aboard. I can easily foresee a day where a much longer boarding process includes some sort of medical check before boarding is allowed. A month old letter from a doctor won’t suffice. Those showing any likely symptoms, or in chronic poor health, won’t be allowed to board. The stakes are too high to continue business as usual. One’s cabin class may soon correspond to how long they stand in line for check in. Getting to the ship at 10:00 a.m. with a 1:00 boarding time may mean you’re only in the front portion of the 1:00 line.

I said something like this last week, about medical release letters and maybe even having to impose upper age restrictions. Unfortunately, cruise lines brought this on themselves by not allowing people to cancel a cruise themselves if they are sick without forfeiting all of their money. The airlines will allow you to cancel la flight and your ticket cost stay on file as a credit. I don't know of any cruise line in the past that had this policy. Of course, they all do now but the travel assurance policy has a deadline.

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Susiean;

 

In addition to pre boarding medical checks, I believe that travel insurance, covering these medical issues, will become a portion of the price of cruising. If one declines insurance, they accept the full risk of not sailing. I also realize that, as in other cases of life, some people are uninsurable. Perhaps that should be, or become , a hint they shouldn’t be sailing.

Edited by pinotlover
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FF writes in part:

=====

2. With all the obvious and necessary caveats, a quick route to an effective vaccine is imperative. As I write this, I'm reminded of all the zombie movies that begin with a virus vaccine that has "a few screws missing." But, seriously, vaccine is the key and just how much can be fast tracked in clinical development/trials is the biggest unknown right now. 

=====

 

The vaccine likely won't be a panacea.

Covid-19 is not the flu, but its mutation patterns don't seem to be very different from influenza, at least not early days:

https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/24/patient-infected-with-two-strains-of-covid-19-in-iceland/

and

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8146565/Scientists-Iceland-claim-FORTY-mutations-coronavirus.html

(A note on sources: no idea about the first. Daily Mail is quite sensational but even if the number is 4 not 40, it's still four mutations.)

 

Of course not every mutation will require a new/modified vaccine. Some likely will.

 

I am a big believer in the flu vaccine but its efficacy rate floats between 40-60% most years. 

If Covid has a somewhat similar success rate, the vaccine will help some, but not how a vaccines cleaned up, say, Smallpox or polio.

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13 minutes ago, Shawnino said:

I am a big believer in the flu vaccine but its efficacy rate floats between 40-60% most years. 

If Covid has a somewhat similar success rate, the vaccine will help some, but not how a vaccines cleaned up, say, Smallpox or polio.

I am quite happy and comfortable with the flu vaccine. Have been taking it for years and have not had the flu for years.

I would gladly accept the same odds with COVID-19 vaccine.

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have not  had the flu since 1976 

Never have had the flu shot either

Personal choice

 

How do you know for sure someone  is sick before boarding  it is the same with Noro

It comes on quickly  mostly without warning/symptoms

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I guess banning all people of a certain age   will cut down on illness onboard  if you believe some here

 What is the cut off age  50, 60, 70 ???

Many people younger also carry bugs or have disabilities  where do they draw the line ?

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45 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I also realize that, as in other cases of life, some people are uninsurable. Perhaps that should be, or become , a hint they shouldn’t be sailing.

That is a very extreme point of view.

Most older people may have trouble with insurance because of chronic illness like heart disease. It's not because of Noro or Covid-19. If they have a heart attack on the cruise it does not affect the rest of the passengers' health - at most there may be a medical evacuation delay.

That is not what we are worried about here.

Anyone, even a teenager, can board the ship with Noro or Covid-19 while being asymptomatic only to get sick  a couple of days later.

How would your "unisurable" policy prevent that?

Edited by Paulchili
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6 minutes ago, LHT28 said:

I guess banning all people of a certain age   will cut down on illness onboard  if you believe some here

 What is the cut off age  50, 60, 70 ???

Many people younger also carry bugs or have disabilities  where do they draw the line ?

As aforementioned, a "senior" ban would be industrial suicide for premium/luxury lines and, at least, decimate mass market lines.

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15 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

In any case, we're still planning on cruising again - as early as this coming November (Athens to Dubai on Oceania). In the worst case scenario, Oceania will cancel and continue its current 100% refund policy.

Any educated guesses on the $$ amount of Oceania's outstanding liabilities if it has to cancel all cruises for 2020? 

I saw a number of 29,000 refunds to be paid at the moment. How high could that go?

Edited by CanEcosse
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3 hours ago, pinotlover said:

We know all cruise lines, including Oceania, have self centered jerks that either break quarantine or refuse to self report due to fear of quarantine. Some show up for cruises already sick.


Agreed. And then there are those that don’t wash their hands after visiting the restroom, those that touch food with barehands and then don’t take it, circulate in public while incessantly coughing...

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56 minutes ago, Classiccruiser777 said:


Agreed. And then there are those that don’t wash their hands after visiting the restroom, those that touch food with barehands and then don’t take it, circulate in public while incessantly coughing...

Agreed! Most of the problems encountered aboard are not from the cruise lines, but inflicted upon us by the selfish acts of other cruisers. Can’t afford to lease out the entire ship unfortunately!

 

I truly believe that when we start sailing again, there will be fundamental changes in how we board, who’s allowed to board, along with stricter protocols. I don’t believe we’ll see any ban at certain ages, but we may well have more Individuals banned from future cruises due to chronic health conditions . There is a point where some of those older guests , with chronic health problems, become more of a financial liability than asset to the luxury lines.

Edited by pinotlover
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3 hours ago, Shawnino said:

FF writes in part:

=====

2. With all the obvious and necessary caveats, a quick route to an effective vaccine is imperative. As I write this, I'm reminded of all the zombie movies that begin with a virus vaccine that has "a few screws missing." But, seriously, vaccine is the key and just how much can be fast tracked in clinical development/trials is the biggest unknown right now. 

=====

 

The vaccine likely won't be a panacea.

Covid-19 is not the flu, but its mutation patterns don't seem to be very different from influenza, at least not early days:

https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/24/patient-infected-with-two-strains-of-covid-19-in-iceland/

and

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8146565/Scientists-Iceland-claim-FORTY-mutations-coronavirus.html

(A note on sources: no idea about the first. Daily Mail is quite sensational but even if the number is 4 not 40, it's still four mutations.)

 

Of course not every mutation will require a new/modified vaccine. Some likely will.

 

I am a big believer in the flu vaccine but its efficacy rate floats between 40-60% most years. 

If Covid has a somewhat similar success rate, the vaccine will help some, but not how a vaccines cleaned up, say, Smallpox or polio.

There are two strategies; a vaccine and a treatment; both being worked on. And I agree about mutations and can leave vaccines less/ineffective (and like you a fan on the taking the annual flu vaccine) and that is when treatment will come in to play. If for example, medication can reduce lung inflammation so one can breathe then it gives the body the needed time to defeat the virus. Again, the treatment for covid-19 might be incomplete for covid-## but is a start and a lot better than where we are now. There is a lot of learning to do and it seems some have gotten the message and hopefully will not forget (for  few generations anyway)

 

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3 minutes ago, YoHoHo said:

There are two strategies; a vaccine and a treatment; both being worked on. And I agree about mutations and can leave vaccines less/ineffective (and like you a fan on the taking the annual flu vaccine) and that is when treatment will come in to play. If for example, medication can reduce lung inflammation so one can breathe then it gives the body the needed time to defeat the virus. Again, the treatment for covid-19 might be incomplete for covid-## but is a start and a lot better than where we are now. There is a lot of learning to do and it seems some have gotten the message and hopefully will not forget (for  few generations anyway)

 

Once developed, might having taken the vaccine become a realistic requirement for boarding? 
 

If they are too sick to take the vaccine, are they likewise too sick to sail?

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6 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Once developed, might having taken the vaccine become a realistic requirement for boarding?

There is precedent for vaccination requirement (i.e. Yellow fever) so if the vaccine was reasonably / acceptably accurate then

seems possible.

6 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

If they are too sick to take the vaccine, are they likewise too sick to sail?

I suspect it is possible that one could not take a certain vaccine for a medical reason and yet be otherwise capable of taking a cruise. YF and exemption comes to mind.  That is a medical question I could not answer.

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10 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Once developed, might having taken the vaccine become a realistic requirement for boarding? 
 

If they are too sick to take the vaccine, are they likewise too sick to sail?

 

Interesting questions.

I was a victim of vaccine-related injury as a tot. (I remain a big fan of vaccines, and occasionally assist researchers.) 

I'm 47 now.

So far, I've never been turned away from travelling anywhere, or from doing anything, because I haven't had a vaccine since I had  the wrong'un.

I wonder if this will change.

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Yellow Fever is spread by the bite of a particular mosquito. It is not spread person to person, unless maybe someone infected bites you!

 

This is completely different from Corona virus and any analogies between not getting a Yellow Fever shot and a Corona virus shot, when developed, is rather silly. If one gets yellow fever, they get very sick and perhaps dies. With Coronavirus they not only can possibly get sick and die, but infect others for the same outcome!

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