The politics of the cruise industry during COVID19

[dkjretired]

2 hours ago, ed01106 said:

Perspective, yesterday more Americans died of Covid-19 than die of Norovirus in a year.

 

Note: not “as of  yesterday” but the one day death rate of Covid-19 is greater than Norovirus in a year.

 

.

 

 

Apples and Oranges, there’s treatment for Noro not corona

[ilikeanswers]

I think anyone who believes cruising will bounce back to normal after all this has some strong rose coloured tinting on their glasses. The avid fans may jump on ship without a second thought but many cruisers are reconsidering their travel options. Also an industry can't grow unless they have new customers and I think trying to convince travellers to try cruising is going to be much more difficult post pandemic. It will come down to how cruise lines adapt but in my opinion I think the industry will shrink and there will not be new growth for quite some time. 

[ldubs]

On 3/30/2020 at 5:00 AM, sanger727 said:

 

 Outside of the businesses that were ordered closed like bars, restaurants, salons, etc; it is relatively business as usual here. Shoot, a close friend of mine just took her daughter prom dress shopping because she’s convinced that schools will open back up soon and prom will be on. I think the perception originally was that this was a China problem, then that it was a europe problem, now it’s a New York problem - but it’s certainly not a cincinnati problem... 

 

Not picking on you at all.  I was surprised to read that your local stay home order would allow a dress store as an essential business activity.  Are they really in compliance or just ignoring the order?  

 

My county, with a population well over 1 million has a couple hundred cases and sadly 3 deaths.  Our stay home order is very strict regarding nonessential businesses and was just extended to May 3rd.  We started the "stay home" voluntarily on Mar 9.  I feel for so many people being without a livelihood during this crises.   I sure hope it pays off with fewer cases and deaths before we get back up and running.   

[clo]

31 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

Not picking on you at all.  I was surprised to read that your local stay home order would allow a dress store as an essential business activity.  Are they really in compliance or just ignoring the order?  

 

My county, with a population well over 1 million has a couple hundred cases and sadly 3 deaths.  Our stay home order is very strict regarding nonessential businesses and was just extended to May 3rd.  We started the "stay home" voluntarily on Mar 9.  I feel for so many people being without a livelihood during this crises.   I sure hope it pays off with fewer cases and deaths before we get back up and running.   

Here in NV - thanks to our governor - we have similar restrictions. We're at 2-1/2 weeks into 'social distancing' and, I tell ya what, anyone who isn't doing it make me nuts(ier) How dare they?

[sanger727]

7 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

Not picking on you at all.  I was surprised to read that your local stay home order would allow a dress store as an essential business activity.  Are they really in compliance or just ignoring the order?  

 

My county, with a population well over 1 million has a couple hundred cases and sadly 3 deaths.  Our stay home order is very strict regarding nonessential businesses and was just extended to May 3rd.  We started the "stay home" voluntarily on Mar 9.  I feel for so many people being without a livelihood during this crises.   I sure hope it pays off with fewer cases and deaths before we get back up and running.   

It’s hard to say. The ‘essential business’ list the governor put out was so long; it’s hard to not qualify. There’s currently a craft store that’s been in the news here for refusing to close. And the main problem is that if it’s open, people are going....

 

I think this exemplifies why we are not going to be on the same path as China. Why our mayor has been working with the national guard to a local convention center space to create a makeshift hospital (we don’t need it yet, but he wants it on standby), the governor’s office has to argue with a crafts store on whether or not they are ‘essential’. My husband and I are both police officers, though I’m in an administrative position now he is still in patrol. And apparently it’s a nightly occurrence to have to respond out to shut down parties that have 100+ people at them.

Edited April 2, 2020 by sanger727

[euro cruiser]

1 hour ago, sanger727 said:

And apparently it’s a nightly occurrence to have to respond out to shut down parties that have 100+ people at them.

 

Sadly, this is why we need good government.  Leadership is always important but especially in a crisis.

 

There will always be people who are too stupid to make good decisions, some who have the intellectual capacity but just don't care or who for whatever reason don't think it through on their own, some who are too easily influenced by the loudest voice in the room, etc.

 

I'll even be generous enough to assume that some people are making bad decisions from the very best intentions, perhaps that's the explanation for the pastors in Georgia and Florida who insisted on packing hundreds of worshipers into their churches this weekend and the one before, when it was clearly known that Covid was rampant in the US.  Perhaps if their need to worship together is so strong that it overwhelms any governmental action (although the governors of these two states did not prohibit such gatherings), any CDC, NIH or national task force recommendations, or common sense, then those worshipers should stay together 24/7 for the sake of  the medical professionals risking their lives for all of us.

[Joebucks]

12 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

I think anyone who believes cruising will bounce back to normal after all this has some strong rose coloured tinting on their glasses. The avid fans may jump on ship without a second thought but many cruisers are reconsidering their travel options. Also an industry can't grow unless they have new customers and I think trying to convince travellers to try cruising is going to be much more difficult post pandemic. It will come down to how cruise lines adapt but in my opinion I think the industry will shrink and there will not be new growth for quite some time. 

 

While I wouldn't say you are wrong, I think this misses the big picture. Let's say 10% of cruisers no longer cruise as a result. Let's also say that ships don't sail for 4 months. 90% of that market still wants to cruise and 4 months of supply was eliminated. Supply still wouldn't have kept up with demand. 2021 pricing is no indication yet that cruising is dying. In fact, I've watched quite a few prices go higher as demand rises for what many people believe is a safe time to go. By the time that initial surge levels off, you can bet that a chunk of people will have gotten over the scare, as long as the current situation doesn't escalate.

[ilikeanswers]

5 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

While I wouldn't say you are wrong, I think this misses the big picture. Let's say 10% of cruisers no longer cruise as a result. Let's also say that ships don't sail for 4 months. 90% of that market still wants to cruise and 4 months of supply was eliminated. Supply still wouldn't have kept up with demand. 2021 pricing is no indication yet that cruising is dying. In fact, I've watched quite a few prices go higher as demand rises for what many people believe is a safe time to go. By the time that initial surge levels off, you can bet that a chunk of people will have gotten over the scare, as long as the current situation doesn't escalate.

 

I see your point but as you said it comes down to if things don't get worst. I would be very surprised if cruising restarts in 4 months. With countries tightening their borders I can't see restrictions losening so quickly on top of that I wouldn't be surprised if ports place more demands on cruise ships that will further delay restarting the industry. If there is one thing this pandemic has done is widen the cracks between ports and cruise line relations. I think you also over estimate people forgetting. I don't know how things are going in your neck of the woods but most countries are in pretty strict lock down and many are predicting it to go six months. The 24hr news cycle, the constant social distancing, self isolation, having everything closed for months on end, having your temperature checked everytime you walk into a building, people are not going to forget the experience that quickly. On top of the people trapped in cruise ships that can't dock. People are going to want to know that cruise lines have better plans in place than go to Florida and cross our fingers they let us dock. I just can't see them in 2021 being at pre pandemic levels. I would be very surprised if nothing changes at all.

[clo]

2 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

I would be very surprised if nothing changes at all.

And I. Where that four months comes from I have no idea. I think it would be dang near miraculous if there's a vaccine in a year. Drugs to treat it effectively. And, yes, regarding ports in other countries. Then you get the governments involved. We see how well that's working in Florida. And 90% retention of customers. I have no crystal ball but I can't see that number being close to accurate. Someone posted here about their adult kids managing their money and giving them an allowance for cruising. I'm guessing that's EXTREMELY rare but still.... Considering the age of the average cruiser.

[lenquixote66]

13 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

Not picking on you at all.  I was surprised to read that your local stay home order would allow a dress store as an essential business activity.  Are they really in compliance or just ignoring the order?  

 

My county, with a population well over 1 million has a couple hundred cases and sadly 3 deaths.  Our stay home order is very strict regarding nonessential businesses and was just extended to May 3rd.  We started the "stay home" voluntarily on Mar 9.  I feel for so many people being without a livelihood during this crises.   I sure hope it pays off with fewer cases and deaths before we get back up and running.   

My town has a population of 32,000.We only have once hospital and as of yesterday there were 200 patients with Corona virus.

I posted two weeks ago that my best friend is in a hospital with the virus.Since I was last on CC a week ago a brother of one of my son in laws tested positive,his daughter is being tested, my wife’s sisters other brother in law lost his sister to the virus,my nieces sister in law has the virus and 67 people in my town have it .

My wife was exposed to the virus 19 days ago but she is fine.

We are not taking any chances ,primarily because of our ages.We have self quarantined.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, lenquixote66 said:

My town has a population of 32,000.We only have once hospital and as of yesterday there were 200 patients with Corona virus.

I posted two weeks ago that my best friend is in a hospital with the virus.Since I was last on CC a week ago a brother of one of my son in laws tested positive,his daughter is being tested, my wife’s sisters other brother in law lost his sister to the virus,my nieces sister in law has the virus and 67 people in my town have it .

My wife was exposed to the virus 19 days ago but she is fine.

We are not taking any chances ,primarily because of our ages.We have self quarantined.

Be careful and stay well. From reading other posts by you, I think it is safe to say you are in a high risk group. So repeating myself, be careful and stay well.

 

Did you get the chance to communicate with H. K.?

[loubetti]

On 3/27/2020 at 10:35 PM, pokerguy90 said:

On 3/27/2020 at 10:03 PM, voyager70 said:

Not a productive post at this point IMO   
 

Not understanding your reply.
The cruise industry will NOT fully recover from this unscathed.

NCL & Princess will not survive this.  NCL has less then 150mil in cash with 9.8 Billion in debt.  Carnival Corp will be forced to bury the Princess line as law suits and problematic name recognition will continue to plague them.  Arnold Donald is no fool. and Frank Del Rio knows he is totally screwed.  
 

Even with securing a few Billion in temp funding. The writing is on the wall.  
very topical and thought provoking subject.  Never meant to be a productive post. Not every post needs to be.  Besides how many posts about sneaking booze on board is really productive anyway.

 

stay well.😀 
 

You might want to research your answer further as in reference to entities that have a stake in NCLH, as I do not agree, and will not do your research for you.

[lenquixote66]

4 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Be careful and stay well. From reading other posts by you, I think it is safe to say you are in a high risk group. So repeating myself, be careful and stay well.

 

Did you get the chance to communicate with H. K.?

My wife suffers from Asthma and along with Parkinson’s and other illnessses I also have a respiratory problem.I am not leaving my house.My daughter who lives near me shops for us.I have not talked to HK.

[ldubs]

10 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

My town has a population of 32,000.We only have once hospital and as of yesterday there were 200 patients with Corona virus.

I posted two weeks ago that my best friend is in a hospital with the virus.Since I was last on CC a week ago a brother of one of my son in laws tested positive,his daughter is being tested, my wife’s sisters other brother in law lost his sister to the virus,my nieces sister in law has the virus and 67 people in my town have it .

My wife was exposed to the virus 19 days ago but she is fine.

We are not taking any chances ,primarily because of our ages.We have self quarantined.

 

I'll keep my fingers crossed for everyone out there in your neck of the woods.  I'm happy to hear that Mrs Quixote is fine.   

 

The town I live in is just 11,000.  But we can't get Corona virus data below the county level.  At least I don't know where to find it if it is available.   

[ldubs]

18 hours ago, sanger727 said:

It’s hard to say. The ‘essential business’ list the governor put out was so long; it’s hard to not qualify. There’s currently a craft store that’s been in the news here for refusing to close. And the main problem is that if it’s open, people are going....

 

I think this exemplifies why we are not going to be on the same path as China. Why our mayor has been working with the national guard to a local convention center space to create a makeshift hospital (we don’t need it yet, but he wants it on standby), the governor’s office has to argue with a crafts store on whether or not they are ‘essential’. My husband and I are both police officers, though I’m in an administrative position now he is still in patrol. And apparently it’s a nightly occurrence to have to respond out to shut down parties that have 100+ people at them.

 

Oh boy.  I hope things keep in check in Ohio.  Stay safe.  

[lenquixote66]

12 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

I'll keep my fingers crossed for everyone out there in your neck of the woods.  I'm happy to hear that Mrs Quixote is fine.   

 

The town I live in is just 11,000.  But we can't get Corona virus data below the county level.  At least I don't know where to find it if it is available.   

Thank you

[Ava79]

On 4/2/2020 at 3:19 PM, euro cruiser said:

 

Sadly, this is why we need good government.  Leadership is always important but especially in a crisis.

 

There will always be people who are too stupid to make good decisions, some who have the intellectual capacity but just don't care or who for whatever reason don't think it through on their own, some who are too easily influenced by the loudest voice in the room, etc.

 

I'll even be generous enough to assume that some people are making bad decisions from the very best intentions, perhaps that's the explanation for the pastors in Georgia and Florida who insisted on packing hundreds of worshipers into their churches this weekend and the one before, when it was clearly known that Covid was rampant in the US.  Perhaps if their need to worship together is so strong that it overwhelms any governmental action (although the governors of these two states did not prohibit such gatherings), any CDC, NIH or national task force recommendations, or common sense, then those worshipers should stay together 24/7 for the sake of  the medical professionals risking their lives for all of us.

You know, I don't support the work of churches and common prayers during an extremely contagious epidemic, but people can still be understood. Perhaps their faith keeps them from despair. But then Church officials still have to persuade parishioners to refrain from visiting churches and pray at home. Perhaps if such people are not affected by the requests of the government, then the requests of the priests will be affected? For them, they are more authoritative, probably...

[CruisingAlong4Now]

I understand a business wanting to stay open. That's a hard decision they have to make. The small business owners and the workers have significant problems if they lose their livelihoods.  However, the real morons are the ones going to the store. There is nothing in the dress store that is essential. 

[navybankerteacher]

On 4/2/2020 at 8:48 AM, Joebucks said:

 

While I wouldn't say you are wrong, I think this misses the big picture. Let's say 10% of cruisers no longer cruise as a result. Let's also say that ships don't sail for 4 months. 90% of that market still wants to cruise and 4 months of supply was eliminated. Supply still wouldn't have kept up with demand. 2021 pricing is no indication yet that cruising is dying. In fact, I've watched quite a few prices go higher as demand rises for what many people believe is a safe time to go. By the time that initial surge levels off, you can bet that a chunk of people will have gotten over the scare, as long as the current situation doesn't escalate.

There is, of course, a wild card.  

 

Beyond health concerns, the state of the economy will impact cruise bookings.  A lot of people will have exhausted their reserves (at least partially) and it will take a while for peoples’s IRA’s and 401k’s  to recover to comfortable levels - Federal stimulus packages will not be enough to overcome the massive loss in perceived wealth (disposable income) which make people think they can afford cruises. 

 

Then, given the massive Federal expenditures already committed, it is virtually certain that significant tax increases will be necessary - to recover expenditures AND to invest in capacity to fight future epidemics. There is going to be a decrease in willingness/ability to spend on things like cruises.

 

Recessions hurt - they take a while to go away - and it seems pretty clear that it will be some time before we are back to spending as usual.

[clo]

51 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Recessions hurt

And what if it becomes a depression? Having the financial world being all tied up with the health/non-health world is a tough one. While we try to avoid 'what-if's' it's tough sometimes.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-is-on-pace-for-its-worst-month-since-the-great-depression-but-heres-why-all-hope-isnt-lost-amid-the-coronavirus-stock-rout-2020-03-21

[joytocruise27]

Where I live, people are taking social distancing and shelter-in-place very seriously. I can't walk towards anyone without them veering off the sidewalk into the grass or abruptly crossing the street. There is a dramatic change in traffic.  And there are indications that the current policys in my northern california hotspot are working.  I love to cruise but won't again until there is a vaccine for Covid-19.  Since I have been reading that having a vaccine ready for distribution in 12 to 18 months might be overly optimistic, I have recently cancelled my cruise in 2022 and booked one for 2023.  I also want any country I visit to have had some time to recover. And yes, I am an old person so in a high risk category with parents that are even older.

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, clo said:

And what if it becomes a depression? Having the financial world being all tied up with the health/non-health world is a tough one. While we try to avoid 'what-if's' it's tough sometimes.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-is-on-pace-for-its-worst-month-since-the-great-depression-but-heres-why-all-hope-isnt-lost-amid-the-coronavirus-stock-rout-2020-03-21

 

There is one growing variable -  the fact that the US is increasingly a consumer (rather than an industrial/ manufacturing) economy.    Previous recovery models might not be applicable - depending upon how concerned the “consuming public” is about the market reverses.     An industrial base is a lot easier to kick-start than one largely composed of individual consumers (who happen to be largely consuming things made in China) meaning that only the middlemen (importers and retailers) and consumers contribute to the economy.

 

Looking back at the several years it took us to pull out of the 2008 slide,  I think that talk of a temporary or “artificial” recession might be too rosy.

[navybankerteacher]

Just now, navybankerteacher said:

 

There is one growing variable -  the fact that the US is increasingly a consumer (rather than an industrial/ manufacturing) economy.    Previous recovery models might not be applicable - depending upon how concerned the “consuming public” is about the market reverses.     An industrial base is a lot easier to kick-start than one largely composed of individual consumers (who happen to be largely consuming things made in China) meaning that only the middlemen (importers and retailers) and consumers contribute to the economy.

 

Looking back at the several years it took us to pull out of the 2008 slide,  I think that talk of a temporary or “artificial” recession might be too rosy. The hard fact is that, even without COVID, the US business cycle was long overdue for a significant correction. The past ten years of growth has been unprecedented - and increasingly unlikely to be endless.

 

[clo]

4 hours ago, joytocruise27 said:

I love to cruise but won't again until there is a vaccine for Covid-19. 

And we have to admit that there may never be an effective vaccine.

[ilikeanswers]

1 hour ago, clo said:

And we have to admit that there may never be an effective vaccine.

 

Even if we do it will probably be years away just like the Ebola vaccine took:

‘Against all odds’: The inside story of how scientists across three continents produced an Ebola vaccine

Edited April 4, 2020 by ilikeanswers