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Viking post Covid-19


ClevelandKid
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1 hour ago, rbslos18 said:

 

Without a vaccine or testing, I can’t imagine most cruisers taking the risk. I am in Parent Lockdown and have not been in a store in three weeks. I am not giving up on our December Viking Cruise, but have to temper my enthusiasm with a dose of reality. Since I bought insurance I have no risk. The larger question is how long can Viking and other privately-owned cruise lines hold out—a year? 18 months? The odds are good that by 18 months thee will be a vaccine.

To date Viking has played their hand perfectly and ethically. They have risen to the challenge. As the loses mount, we will have to see. I can imagine their taking on a partner or two to ease the pain. We are in uncharted territory.

RB

There is a third option, that we may find a treatment for Covid-19 that would reduce the most dire aspects of this disease. If there is a currently available drug that passes the safety and efficacy trials, that could be the quickest route back to a more normal situation. 

 

Most everything we do involves some risk, and the older we are, the higher the risk. Within reason, I am willing to accept risk to be able to travel. The reward is that significant for me. Right now, I am hunkered down like everyone should be, considering new ideas for future vacations, and looking forward to being able to see family and friends with a whole new appreciation.

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42 minutes ago, lackcreativity said:

There is a third option, that we may find a treatment for Covid-19 that would reduce the most dire aspects of this disease. If there is a currently available drug that passes the safety and efficacy trials, that could be the quickest route back to a more normal situation. 

 

Most everything we do involves some risk, and the older we are, the higher the risk. Within reason, I am willing to accept risk to be able to travel. The reward is that significant for me. Right now, I am hunkered down like everyone should be, considering new ideas for future vacations, and looking forward to being able to see family and friends with a whole new appreciation.

Risk.  With noro if you aren't careful you spend a couple of days with your bowels in an uproar.  With Covid making one mistake can be fatal.  And with so many asymptomatic carriers how can you ever feel safe?  Even if a treatment emerges there will be nagging doubt whether it will work for you.  So can you enjoy a cruise wearing a mask and gloves?  Will wait for the vaccine.

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1 hour ago, lackcreativity said:

Most everything we do involves some risk, and the older we are, the higher the risk. Within reason, I am willing to accept risk to be able to travel. The reward is that significant for me. Right now, I am hunkered down like everyone should be, considering new ideas for future vacations, and looking forward to being able to see family and friends with a whole new appreciation.

 

I agree. My wife and I concluded that given Viking's handling of this situation, as soon as they feel it's safe for us to cruise, we're going.

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1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Risk.  With noro if you aren't careful you spend a couple of days with your bowels in an uproar.  With Covid making one mistake can be fatal.  And with so many asymptomatic carriers how can you ever feel safe?  Even if a treatment emerges there will be nagging doubt whether it will work for you.  So can you enjoy a cruise wearing a mask and gloves?  Will wait for the vaccine.

I completely accept your desire to wait for a vaccine, but we are still waiting for a vaccine for HIV, and even vaccines we do have are not always foolproof. The annual flu vaccine is varied in its efficiency, and flu can be fatal, and  yet I get my shot and go on my way, with no nagging worries.

 

I am following all recommended guidelines, to protect myself and others, but I am not really afraid. Just like I don't wake up every day fearing I might have a heart attack, or fall down the steps, or get in a car accident.  All of those things are possible, but if you take reasonable care, then the rest of things are out of your control. 

 

If an acceptable treatment for Covid-19 becomes available, I will acknowledge there may still be risk, but I will assume that risk in order to be able to travel. I don't think any cruise lines will resume sailing under conditions where passengers are expected to wear a mask or gloves, so that is one concern that I doubt I will encounter!

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1 hour ago, lackcreativity said:

 

 

I am following all recommended guidelines, to protect myself and others, but I am not really afraid. Just like I don't wake up every day fearing I might have a heart attack, or fall down the steps, or get in a car accident.  All of those things are possible, but if you take reasonable care, then the rest of things are out of your control. 

 

If an acceptable treatment for Covid-19 becomes available, I will acknowledge there may still be risk, but I will assume that risk in order to be able to travel. I don't think any cruise lines will resume sailing under conditions where passengers are expected to wear a mask or gloves, so that is one concern that I doubt I will encounter!

 

I agree with your thinking.There ultimately is no such thing as "safe" in this world, and as such there is realistically far little control over each of our destinies than we might like to think. I retired fairly early so that I could travel. None of us has any idea (barring an already existing illness or whatever that might already prevent us from doing so) how long we can continue to cruise or land tour. That being said, if there is still no sort of accepted treatment and/or vaccine by the fall, I may need to reconsider a fly/drive trip that we have booked for the western US. Most of us never really know how we're going to react in a given situation until we're in it. My first experience with Viking taught me all about that! The fall trip aside, my bigger concern is our January cruise with Viking. If they are back on schedule by then - and the trip is a go - I'd be very tempted to take our chances. Unfortunately, this involves flying to Rome.

 

I, for one - assuredly like most of us - hate living in fear, and surely don't plan to spend the next 18 months feeling like I can't go anywhere or do anything even with a mask on. That's just not what life is all about. As I think I mentioned before, if someone had described to me back before Christmas the current scenario we're living under, I really believe my gut reaction would have been that I'm not sure I'd even want to continue living under such conditions. (Of course, easy to say in a pandemic-free world.) In the final analysis, we all cling to life pretty tenaciously. Like many things, it becomes an objective vs. subjective battle within our own minds. Carpe diem! Suppose I cancel all my trips for the next 2 years for fear that things are just not "safe" enough, wind up living past that time, but then die of the virus (or, as you mentioned - from some other reason) shortly after. I will not have gotten to do my last bit of travel. 

Edited by OnTheJourney
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As much as we might want to get back to some semblance of normalcy, I think putting faith in a cruise line's ability to keep anyone 'safe' from a virus is just plain silly.  I don't say that to be inflammatory but lets face facts and acknowledge that as an industry they can't even manage to keep Noro virus off their ships, and in many cases it is as transmissible if not more than the current plague we're facing albeit the current bug comes with much more severe potential outcomes.  

 

It has to be accepted that this virus or any other virus doesn't acknowledge borders, genders, age, and certainly has shown no intention of just 'going away' like some politicians would of had the gullible masses believe.  Add to the fact that there's likely a very good chance that restrictions will be put in place for those with pre-existing conditions and perhaps even at/over a specific age deemed by the experts as being more susceptible to contracting the virus and experiencing the most severe side effects. 

 

The fact that Viking hasn't had any cases to date reported I would say is due larger to the fact they stopped trading when they did, and the fact that they only just completed their abbreviated world cruise was not due to their diligence in handling the crisis better than any other, it was due to circumstances and regulations imposed upon them by foreign ports and governments.

 

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14 hours ago, ClevelandKid said:

There are a lot of unknowns behind most of these assumptions - without accurate testing, we are guessing what the death rate is.  What happens if it is no worse or slightly worse than the seasonal flu? That is the direction that the updated modeling is heading towards.  How does that change people's calculations?

 

It would take 18 months to develop a vaccine, but that is in the US with clinical trials, double blind studies, and other measures that are in place that make sure the vaccine works and is not worse than the disease.  But if another country (let's say China) develops a vaccine, skips the tests and distributes the vaccine and it works.  

 

And finally, we don't know how many people may use this as an excuse to retire.  There is always churn in the retirement age group - and there may be a large bump of the newly retired (and relatively healthy) people looking for something to do (assumes the stock market does bounce back in some fashion).

 

 

As a former born and raised Cleveland Kid myself, I would be careful with the comparison between the seasonal flu and CORVID-19. The seasonal flu does not reach the level of being a pandemic. CORVID-19 spreads fast and is around 10 times more lethal according to Fauci. My guess is the percent is higher for seniors. I have never seen the CORVID-19 type drain on hospitals made by the seasonal flu. I for one do not want to risk a treatment not working. By the time the treatment is given, the damage may be done. I also can’t recall the flu season being a national emergency. Sadly, I believe we will all have to wait for a vaccine or widespread testing. But even with testing it only shows who has the virus at that moment. What if the virus does not show on tests fo a few days. This is a tragic mess but we will get through it!

RB

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Lots of "what ifs" and general unknown here. IMHO, the big issue here is what happens to life if social distancing continues? I get the extra dangers of cruise ships, but what about theaters (especially tight seating Broadway theaters), large planes, etc? Regarding Viking cruise ships, the only unavoidable "social closeness" I can think of is embarkation and muster drills - which can be fixed. Excursion buses are generally 1/2 full, and it is not difficult to social distance at the World Cafe. Compare this to large ships (I'm remembering my one Princess cruise I took a few years ago), unavoidable social closeness was everywhere - tenders to ports, getting around the ship, the huge theater where everyone fights for seats, etc. 

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4 hours ago, rbslos18 said:

 

As a former born and raised Cleveland Kid myself, I would be careful with the comparison between the seasonal flu and CORVID-19. The seasonal flu does not reach the level of being a pandemic. CORVID-19 spreads fast and is around 10 times more lethal according to Fauci. My guess is the percent is higher for seniors. I have never seen the CORVID-19 type drain on hospitals made by the seasonal flu. I for one do not want to risk a treatment not working. By the time the treatment is given, the damage may be done. I also can’t recall the flu season being a national emergency. Sadly, I believe we will all have to wait for a vaccine or widespread testing. But even with testing it only shows who has the virus at that moment. What if the virus does not show on tests fo a few days. This is a tragic mess but we will get through it!

RB

Sorry if I gave the impression that I thought it was as bad as the seasonal flu - it is not, it is much worse.  I was trying to highlight what we don't know.  We don't know the denominator! The University of Washington model (the one most often cited) is now showing 61,000 deaths in the US, down considerably from the earlier estimate of 100k - 240k deaths.  Here is Ohio, our death rate is .2%, compared with 1% for New York.  Is that because of Ohio's aggressive closures early on, or a difference in testing, or an indication of other factors?  We just don't know because testing is so limited.  In the Cleveland area you can't get tested unless you have symptoms, so the true count is much larger, which may mean the death rate might be much lower. Testing, testing, testing, testing.  

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37 minutes ago, ClevelandKid said:

Sorry if I gave the impression that I thought it was as bad as the seasonal flu - it is not, it is much worse.  I was trying to highlight what we don't know.  We don't know the denominator! The University of Washington model (the one most often cited) is now showing 61,000 deaths in the US, down considerably from the earlier estimate of 100k - 240k deaths.  Here is Ohio, our death rate is .2%, compared with 1% for New York.  Is that because of Ohio's aggressive closures early on, or a difference in testing, or an indication of other factors?  We just don't know because testing is so limited.  In the Cleveland area you can't get tested unless you have symptoms, so the true count is much larger, which may mean the death rate might be much lower. Testing, testing, testing, testing.  

 

The Washington estimate only goes through August.  The virus could recede in the summer but resurge in the fall (echoing the pattern with seasonal flu).  If so, the death toll would increase as well unless effective treatments and/or a vaccine are developed between now and then.

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On 4/10/2020 at 9:10 PM, OnTheJourney said:

For those who absolutely LOVE sea days, I can see it now....the average 14-day cruise featuring 2 ports and 12 sea days! Awesome for the ship casinos. OR...how about half the cruise spent at the same port (since there might well be, as has been suggested, far fewer ports that will want to accept pax) and the other half at sea?  Just kidding...hopefully. 

 

I could actually see a market for this.  Bermuda (and possibly other ports) already have overnight/multiple day itineraries.  This would give a chance to really enjoy an area rather than the short time we are often given.  My husband and I have an Iconic Southern Caribbean booked and if we had multiple days at Puerto Rico but had to give up one or two of the other ports it would give opportunities that we don't currently have.  I'm sure there are many who wouldn't like this, but I don't view it as all bad.

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Until a vaccine is widely distributed, the world’s population will bifurcate into two sets: Those that have have had the virus and express sufficient antibodies for immunity, and those that do not.

 

The UK and other places have floated the idea of giving folks with immunity a “passport” to expand their allowed activities.  Though it does not seem exactly fair to reward those that have caught the virus, the extra freedoms would only be for a year or so, until the other set is vaccinated.

 

Perhaps an avant-guard line like Virgin Cruises could start cruises with only immunity passport holders allowed to board?

 

If the passport were to provide too many advantages, such as the ability to make money while the non-immune become poorer, you may see people trying to get infected.  As they say, a thorny issue...

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We have two Viking Ocean cruises booked. I agree that the safest option is to wait for a vaccine. But there is a 5 minute Covid-19 test. I would feel safer if Viking tested all passengers on embarkation.

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36 minutes ago, ingres said:

We have two Viking Ocean cruises booked. I agree that the safest option is to wait for a vaccine. But there is a 5 minute Covid-19 test. I would feel safer if Viking tested all passengers on embarkation.

The challenge at this time is the false negative tests. The testing has to and hopefully will improve. I believe Viking will do the responsible thing. No one wants a repeat of COVID Cruise ship debacle. I am so glad our Viking cruise is in late December. It keeps my spirits up as does reading these posts every day.

 

Remember,  a lot can happen. We need a good break! In the meantime, let’s all be safe and prudent and grateful for those blessed Essential Services people who risk their lives each and every day on our behalf. Take care all, we will cruise again! We will get this figured out!

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11 hours ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Until a vaccine is widely distributed, the world’s population will bifurcate into two sets: Those that have have had the virus and express sufficient antibodies for immunity, and those that do not.

 

 

I have only heard this discussed briefly.  If a person has sufficient antibodies for immunity does that also mean they can't be a carrier? If an immune person could still infect others then I don't see how it makes much of a difference if it continues to put the general population at risk. I don't have a medical/bio background, so I could obviously be missing something.

 

 

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If a Covid-19 vaccine is developed, I believe the World Health Organisation will make it mandatory for travellers to get the vaccine and provide documentation. My husband and I have postponed our cruise to the Baltic this July (🙁) to next year... Another vaccine to add to the little yellow book! 

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4 hours ago, ingres said:

We have two Viking Ocean cruises booked. I agree that the safest option is to wait for a vaccine. But there is a 5 minute Covid-19 test. I would feel safer if Viking tested all passengers on embarkation.

I don't see this as a solution, unless it was a cruise to nowhere. Even if all passengers (and crew) tested negative, once you allow people off the ship in a port, the exposure to crowds in each stop would introduce the possibility of exposure. Even if you retested everyone as they returned to the ship, I don't know how quickly exposure produces a positive test result. Test everyone every day? That just seems unwieldy and ultimately not foolproof.

 

We too have two cruises booked with Viking, and I long for a chance to travel. I don't see the answer yet, but ultimately someone will figure a way.

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6 hours ago, lackcreativity said:

I don't see this as a solution, unless it was a cruise to nowhere. Even if all passengers (and crew) tested negative, once you allow people off the ship in a port, the exposure to crowds in each stop would introduce the possibility of exposure. Even if you retested everyone as they returned to the ship, I don't know how quickly exposure produces a positive test result. Test everyone every day? That just seems unwieldy and ultimately not foolproof.

 

We too have two cruises booked with Viking, and I long for a chance to travel. I don't see the answer yet, but ultimately someone will figure a way.

 

I really think that, despite whatever new regs and policies are instituted, it's going to boil down to the individual consumer as to how much risk they want to assume once schedules reopen. Can anyone foresee a special medical waiver that becomes part of the cruise contract whereby the cruise lines are exonerated from any health situations arising while onboard?  Is there something like that already? Admittedly, I really don't take the time to read all that fine print. The only reason I bring this up is that several land tour companies that we've traveled with have added waivers for certain types of excursions, etc. that were never in place even a few years ago. 

Edited by OnTheJourney
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6 hours ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

 

Gotta say, under these conditions - more for some folks than others of course - September sounds like a loooong way off yet, let alone next April. 

Edited by OnTheJourney
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There's a piece in today's WSJ about how Disney has partially re-opened  their Shanghai park.  They are requiring masks to be worn at all times (except when eating).   Hours and capacity are limited.  And to gain entry visitors must submit to a temperature check and present a gov't controlled QR code on their phone that indicates they are virus free.  

 

Is this what cruising will be like as well until we're all vaccinated?  Wearing a mask around ship isn't for me so guess I'll stay hunkered down in the family fortress with moat filled and drawbridge raised.

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