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LongHill44

My agent told me Carnival wont cruise till at least August.

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31 minutes ago, ohioNCLcruiser said:

 

If Carnival, NCL or Royal Caribbean declare bankruptcy it would be a chapter 11 not a chapter 7 bankruptcy so they would still be in operation just restructuring. 

 

They are predicting the peak of this in the US to be in 3 weeks/start of May. The cruise lines are not going to be sending staff back to the ships until they are certain operations will resume within a couple of weeks. When the cruise lines do start up, I think it will be a few ships at a time over several months. Part of the problem too is when various countries and ports allow cruise ships to return. There are just way too many unknowns and moving parts for this to be over by May, June or July in my opinion.

 

I also predict any new build that hasn't started already to be delayed indefinitely. 

With the new test they showed yesterday that provides results in 5 minutes I can see the cruise industry using this at least for the near term. They could test everyone who boards to be sure all are safe to cruise. Might take some time but would certainly be an option for them

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59 minutes ago, jperry2011 said:

Possibly but I highly doubt the government would let it get that far. Cruises support alot of American jobs at the ports, food, transportation, etc.

you do understand its not a US company, and does not pay US taxes...correct?

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3 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

Just like Royal an Ncl

 

Yet Royal just announced that they are allowing anyone who wants to cancel to do so penalty free through Sept 1 sailings.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Purvis1231 said:

I am afraid if Carnival cannot sail before August- they may good bankrupt.

 

They've already cancelled all dividends. I'm sure that would eventually include the OBC for being a shareholder also. They are trying to float a 6 BILLION DOLLAR  bond to finance their ships through this mess. Because they're incorporated OUTSIDE the US they don't qualify for government protection although President Trump is trying to change this:

 

"Though the cruise companies are headquartered in the U.S., they are incorporated offshore. That means they don’t pay a lot of federal taxes, among other issues. Because of their incorporation status, these companies did not qualify for aid under the $2.2 trillion Cares Act." - - from Barrons report on the cruise lines.

Edited by glrounds

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Dr. Fauci stated yesterday that a second outbreak in the fall is likely. 

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Your agent has no right "telling" you that. None of us know for sure. I would say July may work. But it's all speculation. Carnival or any other line can't cancel that far put, they just don't have the systems in place to handle so much. I'm scheduled to sail end of May - I'm certain it won't happen. I hope I'm wrong but it won't happen. They won't go out of business. They may port Ships for a while if they have to, to save some money. Lots of things can happen. 

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6 minutes ago, pacruise804 said:

 

 

The government might provide aid to the American workers, but I doubt they will provide significant aid directly to the cruise lines.  If we are still at a point of no travel in 3-6 months we will likely have bigger economic concerns than vacations.

I dont think the cruise lines need significant help. They need the ships to cruise as soon as they can. There is 0 chance we are at the same point in 3 months. Under 1% death rate of those who even become infected and all the advancements and medicine we have already seen this wont be a huge deal in a couple months.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, jperry2011 said:

 Cruises support a lot of American jobs at the ports, food, transportation, etc.
 


Yup.  There are a lot of State-side jobs and revenue that is being impacted and lost due to the covid-19 cruise stoppage.  Seems to me that the US government has a lot to gain by at least making loans to the cruise lines.  Total U.S.-based Spending in 2018 was $23.95 billion.  There are nearly 422,000 jobs in the US that support the cruise industry, with wages of $23.15 billion.

Seems to me that it would be wise for the US government to support the cruise line with loans that would keep them afloat.  

Page 3 provides a nice summary of the stats for each US State:

https://cruising.org/-/media/research-updates/research/contribution-of-the-international-cruise-industry-to-the-us-economy-2018.pdf

Edited by VentureMan_2000

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1 hour ago, CPHS said:

With the new test they showed yesterday that provides results in 5 minutes I can see the cruise industry using this at least for the near term. They could test everyone who boards to be sure all are safe to cruise. Might take some time but would certainly be an option for them

Won't really work. One person tests positive you now have several hundred exposed that could be infected. 

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2 minutes ago, VentureMan_2000 said:


Yup.  There are a lot of State-side jobs and revenue that is being impacted and lost due to the covid-19 cruise stoppage.  Seems to me that the US government has a lot to gain by at least making loans to the cruise lines.  Total U.S.-based Spending in 2018 was $23.05 billion.  There are nearly 422,000 jobs in the US that support the cruise industry, with wages of $23.15 billion.

Seems to me that it would be wise for the US government to support the cruise line with loans that would keep them afloat.  

Page 3 provides a nice summary of the stats for each US State:

https://cruising.org/-/media/research-updates/research/contribution-of-the-international-cruise-industry-to-the-us-economy-2018.pdf

Yes. Even if they can all work together and provide a great plan to keep those who are sick and or high risk from getting onboard then having the ships sail in May the companies would be able to bounce back.

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The board at Carnival doesn't know so there is no way some random agent does.

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, VentureMan_2000 said:

The cruise lines are not going to start up again until the ports they visit open up.  Below is a list of closed ports, and includes what looks like a majority of the Caribbean, and Canada.

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5097/

 

^^^^^This! Thanks V.M. Folks, I see this link as important, or perhaps more so, than the  'when can we sail?' discussions. It's a moot discussion, IF all of the ports of call that Carnival(or any other cruise line for that matter) calls on prohibit debarking when/if cruise passengers get there. 

Edited by Joe817

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6 minutes ago, jperry2011 said:

Yes. Even if they can all work together and provide a great plan to keep those who are sick and or high risk from getting onboard then having the ships sail in May the companies would be able to bounce back.

 

From my experience cruising over the years, this will contain half their market. 🙂

 

And still won't protect anyone from those that are INFECTED but don't show any symptoms.

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3 hours ago, jperry2011 said:

I dont know why people use travel agents, you can literally book a hotel and a cruise in 15 mins online or on the phone.

Your travel agent cant tell the future and is making you wait on a vacation for  no reason.

Carnival wont let its ship sit until august.. not a chance.

Most likely they will ban any high risk and over 65-70 year old cruisers for the time being. Do advanced health screenings prior to boarding. Clean the ship like crazy the whole cruise. Serve you at the buffet areas. Also the way testing has evolved recently you may see tests that can be done in a few minutes before your allowed onboard. 

 

Book the cruise yourself, the worst that can happen is they cancel for another month and you get a full cruise credit plus $600 OBC just like me.

Lots of statements....we will see.

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1 hour ago, ohioNCLcruiser said:

 

If Carnival, NCL or Royal Caribbean declare bankruptcy it would be a chapter 11 not a chapter 7 bankruptcy so they would still be in operation just restructuring. 

 

They are predicting the peak of this in the US to be in 3 weeks/start of May. The cruise lines are not going to be sending staff back to the ships until they are certain operations will resume within a couple of weeks. When the cruise lines do start up, I think it will be a few ships at a time over several months. Part of the problem too is when various countries and ports allow cruise ships to return. There are just way too many unknowns and moving parts for this to be over by May, June or July in my opinion.

 

I also predict any new build that hasn't started already to be delayed indefinitely. 

I agree if the file bankruptcy it would be a restructuring which for Carnival it could mean separating, selling, or closing some of the brands. At this point there is no way of knowing what will happen in the next few weeks and even more doubt for the future. Some thing I can see happening- new construction and even some of those under construction will be cancelled. Once cruising resumes there will be some great prices but once the cruise lines determine the future demands prices will go up, some ships will be phased out. Even in the short run some ship may not sail if they cannot fill them with paying passengers and willing crew members.  This is sad for us who have found cruising a fun and accordable vacation. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:


Yes, Carnival previously stated they expected to resume operations in April. Obviously we all know that isn’t going to happen per Carnival. So this time when Carnival states they will resume operations in May you believe them?  You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know the chances of any cruises happening in May are slim to none. 

Hey, they’re the ones taking reservations and saying the cruises are still going over the phone 😉 

Edited by xDisconnections

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1 hour ago, webzila said:

 

Yet Royal just announced that they are allowing anyone who wants to cancel to do so penalty free through Sept 1 sailings.

Smart move, but what is their earliest sail date?

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8 hours ago, xDisconnections said:

Carnival expects to resume operations in mid-May. Have they given us a reason to assume otherwise?

 

Going to be hard for people to go on cruises if states have stay-at-home orders in place. Virginia just issued one yesterday that runs to mid-June.

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3 hours ago, stetucke said:

Carnival expected to be back April 11th as well. They are very likely to push back again.

They already did till May 11th

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5 hours ago, hattack said:

with so many unknown factors ,we have come to the conclusion to regroup our resources and plan on next year starting in Jan 2021 ...why go thru the stress of schedule, cancel, reschedule, cancel again for the next few months 

I am totally with you and will doing my FCC for after 2021, not booking any cruises for 2020, however, if there is a cure this year I will seek some other form of vacation other than cruising.

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1 hour ago, 48traveler said:

They already did till May 11th

And they will do again and again.

5 minutes ago, elcuchio24 said:

 

So.....your saying there will be an additional bailout just for cruise lines? Guessing eco wasnt your major at city college, Tiger. 

Yep, no bailout or early start back to cruising.  Guessing October or later.  Lines will figure out how to stay afloat (pun intended).

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No way to know.  I'm booked for May & August and am keeping both. If they cancel, they cancel.  Right now for May, I'd just be out my hotel stay at most (IDK if it is non-refundable). For August I'm out return flight if it doesn't happen.

 

She's right that there is a good chance they are on hiatus that long, but nobody really knows for sure.

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2 hours ago, SRQbeachgirl said:

 

Going to be hard for people to go on cruises if states have stay-at-home orders in place. Virginia just issued one yesterday that runs to mid-June.

Stay at home orders mean nothing if they're not enforced.

 

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6 minutes ago, reeinaz said:

Stay at home orders mean nothing if they're not enforced.

 

It's only a matter of time before enforcement starts if people keep opposing the stay at home orders.

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