NO CRUISES TILL NEXT YEAR

[lindyloo22]

Just read this on another site they were watching the news and thy said no cruising till next year

wonder how true this is going to be.

[Britboys]

I think we all recognise that this could be a real possibility.  At this stage however, it is too early to know exactly when cruises will resume.

[Les_ldh]

Nobody knows yet, but that timescale fits with what I’m planning for.

[wowzz]

That's assuming of course that the cruuse lives will survive that long. Some of the smaller lines will struggle  - I'm thinking Saga, Fred Olsen etc.

[bee-ess]

42 minutes ago, lindyloo22 said:

Just read this on another site they were watching the news and thy said no cruising till next year

wonder how true this is going to be.

Which News channel was that - I've not seen that on any of the major News websites

[picsa]

I suppose there might be cruises next year with P&O but with the way Carnival’s share price is falling, only if someone buys the name when they have gone ‘pop’.

[Eglesbrech]

23 minutes ago, wowzz said:

That's assuming of course that the cruuse lives will survive that long. Some of the smaller lines will struggle  - I'm thinking Saga, Fred Olsen etc.

SAGA is part of a very, very big group so have a lot of financial backing. I’d be surprised if it went down as most passengers also have SAGA insurance so one part of of the organisation or the other will pay out.
 

 

[wowzz]

5 minutes ago, Eglesbrech said:

SAGA is part of a very, very big group so have a lot of financial backing. I’d be surprised if it went down as most passengers also have SAGA insurance so one part of of the organisation or the other will pay out.
 

 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202004/saga-dividend-suspended,-new-terms-agreed-with-lenders

Saga may be big, but financially it is in a bit if trouble. 

[lindyloo22]

24 minutes ago, bee-ess said:

Which News channel was that - I've not seen that on any of the major News websites

I’ve not seen it either on the news,  just what I read on another social site

[Eglesbrech]

6 minutes ago, wowzz said:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202004/saga-dividend-suspended,-new-terms-agreed-with-lenders

Saga may be big, but financially it is in a bit if trouble. 

Thanks, interesting reading. 

[jake 26]

48 minutes ago, lindyloo22 said:

I’ve not seen it either on the news,  just what I read on another social site

 

I suspect it is just speculation.

 

I can't see any of the cruise lines making that statement.

 

I can however see the FCO advice to people of 70 and over remaining in place until measures are in place to safeguard cruises from covid 19, and that could be next year or beyond.

[Elsie69]

It was on Southern news tonight, mainly about Saga and that they may cancel their order for a new ship

too.

[bee-ess]

It is a quite possible, but I don't think that any cruise line would make that statement this early in the year

[Clodia]

Rumours rumours.

[daiB]

Sounds like speculation to me. Some pessimist will have posted that cruises will never restart this year and others will have taken it as being fact.

The fact is no one knows.

I suspect it could be some time before it is fully up and running.


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[Elsie69]

3 minutes ago, daiB said:

Sounds like speculation to me. Some pessimist will have posted that cruises will never restart this year and others will have taken it as being fact.

The fact is no one knows.

I suspect it could be some time before it is fully up and running.


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[Elsie69]

It definitely was on Southern News tonight in quite some detail, being that Southampton is in their area. Showed picture of Saga ship and actually stated that Saga were indicating that they may be no more cruises this year. Also stated that they may cancel any new ship on order.

[Mattsudds]

I didn’t see the news piece but unless that came from Saga itself, I suspect this is 2+2=27. It comes about because Saga updated the stock market today about the trading conditions and the impact of COVID on their business. 

 

You can read it in Saga’s own words direct below. Basically what they are saying is that they have been preparing for a scenario where cruising might not be possible for 6 months. They explicitly say that this is not a prediction but they are updating the stock market to show how they are preparing for all scenarios. Saga have also been notified by Meyer Werft that delivery of the next new ship, Spirit of Adventure, will be delayed due to the impact of COVID on building operations. They say they still expect to take delivery within this financial year. Meyer have published in the past day a picture of the ship on their social media and the ship is structurally looking almost complete. 

 

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/saga_limited1/rns1/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=852&newsid=1383851

[molecrochip]

Saga serving exclusively 50+ have a bigger issue than most as their clientele is the at risk group. They don’t have the family / mid-career group to fall back on.

 

P&O could lay up their adults only ships and still have a reasonable business. If Saga lay up their equivalent ships, they have no cruise business.

[Thejuggler]

It has already been stated we are just starting what is likely to be a 6 month period where there will be disruption to what we have considered 'normal' life.

 

In three months we may be at the point of starting the journey out of this nightmare, but there will still be restrictions and how the travel insurance business reacts will be a significant factor in how quickly anyone will want to take any trip abroad.

 

I can therefore see ships alongside for the rest of this year.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Thejuggler

[wowzz]

17 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Saga serving exclusively 50+ have a bigger issue than most as their clientele is the at risk group. They don’t have the family / mid-career group to fall back on.

 

P&O could lay up their adults only ships and still have a reasonable business. If Saga lay up their equivalent ships, they have no cruise business.

Fair point, although you could argue that older cruisers,  with their private pensions, are far more likely to be able to afford to resume cruising, whereas many of the younger P&O customers will be severely affected financially by the current situation  - it could be years before these people will be able to afford any sort of holiday, let alone a cruise. 

[daiB]

16 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Fair point, although you could argue that older cruisers,  with their private pensions, are far more likely to be able to afford to resume cruising, whereas many of the younger P&O customers will be severely affected financially by the current situation  - it could be years before these people will be able to afford any sort of holiday, let alone a cruise. 

Correct. It is the pensioners who will have the money to carry on cruising. Unless their income relies on the stock market and then even they would have difficulty.

 

Clearly the cruise companies and the ports they visit would like to recommence sooner than later. It may happen by the middle of September. That would be 6 month after the start of this. A timeframe often quoted.

[terrierjohn]

4 hours ago, Eglesbrech said:

SAGA is part of a very, very big group so have a lot of financial backing. I’d be surprised if it went down as most passengers also have SAGA insurance so one part of of the organisation or the other will pay out.
 

 

Not so sure it is a big group at all, and they were trying to sell off Titan Travel to reduce borrowings just before the Covid19 crisis, and this is now shelved.  So with one brand new £280m cruise ship just started cruises, and another nearing completion, I suspect they will be deeper in doodoos than Carnival.

[wowzz]

5 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Not so sure it is a big group at all, and they were trying to sell off Titan Travel to reduce borrowings just before the Covid19 crisis, and this is now shelved.  So with one brand new £280m cruise ship just started cruises, and another nearing completion, I suspect they will be deeper in doodoos than Carnival.

If you look at the link I posted earlier, you will see that they are already pretty deep in the mire. 

[molecrochip]

54 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Fair point, although you could argue that older cruisers,  with their private pensions, are far more likely to be able to afford to resume cruising, whereas many of the younger P&O customers will be severely affected financially by the current situation  - it could be years before these people will be able to afford any sort of holiday, let alone a cruise. 

I’m not sure I agree. The 70+ group may find themselves restricted by travel advice for longer than the rest.

 

A lot of younger families are finding that they are not paying private nursery fees, commuting costs, aren’t spending monies out so actually are increasing savings.

 

Yes, there are a group of people sadly finding themselves without income however those aren’t typically P&O customers beyond 3 nights.