What it will take for cruising to resume

[eel]

This thread is for opinions and discussion - lets keep it civil!

 

In my opinion we are still many months from the resumption of cruising. And that is assuming that Royal and the other cruise lines can avoid bankruptcy. Here is what I believe it will take for cruising to safely resume:

 

1) New case count in the country of departure would have to be close to zero (single digits per day).

2) Flights to/from country of embarkation/debarkation would need to be resumed and readily available.

3) There would have to be ready access to testing with fast turnaround including antibody testing.  All passengers will either need to show a negative test within 24 hours of departure or prove that they already had the virus via antibody tests. The ships would also need to have the capacity to test on board with quick turnaround time.

4) Temperature checks before boarding and also on a daily basis for all passengers and crew. Possibly provide each cabin with a no-contact internet connected thermometer to enforce this.

5) Passengers would be quarantined if they have above normal temperatures and, with a positive test result, it would last for the duration of the cruise.

6) No more self-serve food venues.  Food at the buffet would either be pre-made and wrapped or served onto your plate by crew.

7) Ports would have to be in locations with new case counts close to zero.  Countries would have to start allowing cruises again. We may start off with cruises to nowhere or just stopping at private destinations.

😎 Ships could not sail full.  They would need to keep a certain number of balcony cabins empty for quarantines.  They would also need to have extra space so that overcrowding of public venues is not a problem.

 

Even with all this there will be risk.  Do people agree that the measures will need to be this severe to resume cruising?

 

My best guess is that the first cruises will start up in December at the earliest.

 

 

[Biker19]

I don't know about item 3, but most of the other items are pretty close for China now.

[time4u2go]

For #7, cruises to nowhere are not allowed any more.  And those private destinations are part of other countries that may or may not be allowing cruise ships to dock.

[eel]

25 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

For #7, cruises to nowhere are not allowed any more.  And those private destinations are part of other countries that may or may not be allowing cruise ships to dock.

I think the Cruise Line Lobby may have enough sway to get the cruise to nowhere regulation lifted temporarily. Even though no bailout, it is in our country’s best interest for the industry to survive.

[bob63005]

i think it will take a vaccine and documentation of vaccination  

 

[WeLuvVacation]

Without going into a ton of theories and so called facts and ramifications my personal opinion is that all unneeded travel should be suspended for the remainder of 2020 and then reevaluated around December for a possible extension. If the virus abates before the end of the year then maybe the end of 2020 time frame could be rolled back. With no antidote for the virus on the short horizon I personally would not step foot on any public transportation until that was readily available. 

[firefly333]

7 minutes ago, bob63005 said:

i think it will take a vaccine and documentation of vaccination  

 

In 18 months cruise line migjt be bankrupt. 

 

Gotta be sooner, though idk how. #3 getting a covid test within 24 hrs of leaving sounds pretty impossible to me too. I see biker agrees.

 

Heck the doctors letter within a week sounds hard to me. For age 70 and over.

[molly361]

1 minute ago, firefly333 said:

In 18 months cruise line migjt be bankrupt. 

 

Gotta be sooner, though idk how. #3 getting a covid test within 24 hrs of leaving sounds pretty impossible to me too. I see biker agrees.

 

Heck the doctors letter within a week sounds hard to me. For age 70 and over.

Royal has no date limit for the doctor's note as of now.  you can get it 2 or 3 weeks out if you like

[gatour]

9 minutes ago, eel said:

I think the Cruise Line Lobby may have enough sway to get the cruise to nowhere regulation lifted temporarily. Even though no bailout, it is in our country’s best interest for the industry to survive.

I did some research.  I found this document.

https://www.f-cca.com/downloads/2018-Cruise-Industry-Overview-and-Statistics.pdf

 

It says in 2016, the cruise industry had a total economic of $126 billion impact GLOBALLY.

 

This is a drop in the bucket even compared to just the US travel industry.  Forty years ago , before the launch of what I call the start of the modern cruise industry, the country was doing just fine, so I don't get the "best interest" comment.

 

I love cruising but in the grand scheme of things the cruise industry is just a minor cog in the entire US GDP.

 

Would they allow cruises to nowhere, possibly.  The reason why we don't have them now, is are a reinterpretation of reg's and laws.  They can be reinterpreted again, or even granted temporary legality by a new law.

 

 

 

[voyager70]

Way too early to make any kind of predictions.  No one knows.

 

[robntawn]

Every day we are reading about multiple ships from all cruiselines who have positive Covid 19 cases in passengers and crew, some even after 14 days of debarkation.  Does anybody really think that port cities are going to allow cruises to resume anytime soon?  I realize that there is a core group of cruisers who will jump onboard immediately upon resumption of cruises, but I've got to thing that most will be hesitant to do so.  Finally, there will likely be lawsuits about cruise companies purposefully hiding cases (Celebrity in San Diego for one).

[momofmab]

I think you’re going to see a minimum of a year from now until cruises resume. We’ve seen how quickly the virus has spread on cruises, so I think they’ll be the last to get back to normalcy.


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[eel]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

In 18 months cruise line migjt be bankrupt. 

 

Gotta be sooner, though idk how. #3 getting a covid test within 24 hrs of leaving sounds pretty impossible to me too. I see biker agrees.

 

Heck the doctors letter within a week sounds hard to me. For age 70 and over.

If drive through testing does not become common in a few months, then I think the country has bigger problems than no cruising.

[Jam0610]

Would also add:

 

Adjustments for seating everywhere on the ship. Dining, Bars, Casino, and all public places. Seating, spacing will be to be followed.

 

 

[WeLuvVacation]

7 minutes ago, Jam0610 said:

Would also add:

 

Adjustments for seating everywhere on the ship. Dining, Bars, Casino, and all public places. Seating, spacing will be to be followed.

 

 

Agree but at the gaming tables in the casino and at the bars this would be a tough sell. They pack those areas pretty tight.

[firefly333]

12 minutes ago, eel said:

If drive through testing does not become common in a few months, then I think the country has bigger problems than no cruising.

We have drive thru testing. It expires april 11th. Right now to get tested you have to be running a fever. They warn dont take tylenol or anything for the fever or you will be turned away from testing.

 

We have 2 test lanes and mayor of dallas asked for 400 more tests. So far they haven't given them to use. If you are tested by a private lab it's called a presumptive positive, has to be a govt test to count. Ft worth threw in 83 presumptive positives, and going to report them but they dont count in the numbers.

 

Now add in my cruise leaves January 2nd, on a weekend, you you think for sure I can get tested on new years day. Oh btw it only takes rain in forecast to cancel the 2 test lanes for the next day.

 

Please clue me in how I could possibly be sure of a test new years day to bring to board.

 

 

[Junkhouse]

When the press and public realize that more people die from the common flu then this virus, and that most of the deaths hit people that are diabetic or have a BMI of over 30.

[mike123abc]

Perhaps the cruise lines will invest in the Abbott Labs 15 minute test.  After check in you will have to report for a test and wait 15 minutes for the results.

[time4u2go]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

In 18 months cruise line migjt be bankrupt. 

 

Gotta be sooner, though idk how. #3 getting a covid test within 24 hrs of leaving sounds pretty impossible to me too. I see biker agrees.

 

Heck the doctors letter within a week sounds hard to me. For age 70 and over.

Agreed.  With the logistics of people flying in before a cruise, not really sure how that would work.  Many (most?) fly in the day before their cruise.  If they spend almost all of the day before the cruise traveling (keep in mind possible weather delays, etc.), then they would have to somehow get to a testing site either the night before or the day of the cruise, in a city in which they almost definitely have no car.  Totally unrealistic, if not impossible in some cases.

[TMLAalum]

From what I understand, tests are not being given to people who are asymptomatic, much less many others who are mildly symptomatic. So one could be a spreader and not know it since tests are currently in short supply. Far more research into understanding COVID-19 is needed prior to imposing restrictions that may be unnecessary once a treatment or vaccine is found.

 

 

 

[time4u2go]

15 minutes ago, Junkhouse said:

When the press and public realize that more people die from the common flu then this virus, and that most of the deaths hit people that are diabetic or have a BMI of over 30.

That is so not true.  The CDC estimates that there have been 24,000 – 63,000 deaths from the flu during the current flu season.  There have been about 58,000 deaths from Covid-19 so far, increasing by at least 5000 per day.

[rtazz17]

4 hours ago, eel said:

This thread is for opinions and discussion - lets keep it civil!

 

In my opinion we are still many months from the resumption of cruising. And that is assuming that Royal and the other cruise lines can avoid bankruptcy. Here is what I believe it will take for cruising to safely resume:

 

1) New case count in the country of departure would have to be close to zero (single digits per day).

2) Flights to/from country of embarkation/debarkation would need to be resumed and readily available.

3) There would have to be ready access to testing with fast turnaround including antibody testing.  All passengers will either need to show a negative test within 24 hours of departure or prove that they already had the virus via antibody tests. The ships would also need to have the capacity to test on board with quick turnaround time.

4) Temperature checks before boarding and also on a daily basis for all passengers and crew. Possibly provide each cabin with a no-contact internet connected thermometer to enforce this.

5) Passengers would be quarantined if they have above normal temperatures and, with a positive test result, it would last for the duration of the cruise.

6) No more self-serve food venues.  Food at the buffet would either be pre-made and wrapped or served onto your plate by crew.

7) Ports would have to be in locations with new case counts close to zero.  Countries would have to start allowing cruises again. We may start off with cruises to nowhere or just stopping at private destinations.

😎 Ships could not sail full.  They would need to keep a certain number of balcony cabins empty for quarantines.  They would also need to have extra space so that overcrowding of public venues is not a problem.

 

Even with all this there will be risk.  Do people agree that the measures will need to be this severe to resume cruising?

 

My best guess is that the first cruises will start up in December at the earliest.

 

 

Crazy....No way... temp checks etc will put off people. You will be hard pressed to see people going cruising with all the above restrictions. The game changer will be a vaccination. Remember eventually many people will have had this disease and many will be immune. Many strains of the flu people are immune to right now. Its a new disease and in time people will be immune or inoculated against it. Cruising will not survive with all your guesses above. A family of 4 isnt going to chance spending 4 grand on a vacation where they have 4 check points and a chance of being turned around or quarantined. Wont happen. 
 

lol,this would be sooooo unatractive to sail..... does it even sound fun?

 

this will pass. You wont need to be hyper hysterical about getting a virus that kills .0000000006 % of world population. Its the same signs and symptoms of regular flu but its more contagious. Wow the craziness!!

[rtazz17]

4 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

That is so not true.  The CDC estimates that there have been 24,000 – 63,000 deaths from the flu during the current flu season.  There have been about 58,000 deaths from Covid-19 so far, increasing by at least 5000 per day.

Because there is no immunity yet. There will be and the numbers will drop drastically.

 

global deaths from flu are 250,000-650,000 a year......there have been 58,000 globally of covid 19... that should give some perspective. Most dont die from covid,they die 2ndary to covid via a chronic disease they already had

Edited April 3, 2020 by rtazz17

[time4u2go]

Just now, rtazz17 said:

Because there is no immunity yet. There will be and the numbers will drop drastically.

Perhaps, but that's not the statement I was responding to.

[eel]

34 minutes ago, mike123abc said:

Perhaps the cruise lines will invest in the Abbott Labs 15 minute test.  After check in you will have to report for a test and wait 15 minutes for the results.

Yep, this is what they will need to do. For those that can't get a test within 24 (or maybe 48) hours, they will have to have testing available at the cruise terminal.  And they would also need to have antibody tests which will be simple pinprick blood tests that only take a few minutes.

 

Just because testing is limited today does not mean that will be the case in a few months.

 

People will do what they have to do to cruise safely.  The cruise lines will do what it takes to make this possible. Just my opinion.  We will see what actually happens.

Edited April 3, 2020 by eel